http://www.drf.com/workoutsForHorseAction.do?rNo=05008388
I guess that shakes things up.
Not for me. He\'s very possibly a dirt horse whose ability has been muted on the synth surface. Read my previous posts and bet against this guy at your peril.
He had to exhibit some evidence of it first and he just did.
Note Adriano went a full three seconds slower. If Adriano is Classic material he\'s gonna be behind a wall of them early.
alm Wrote:
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> Not for me. He\'s very possibly a dirt horse whose
> ability has been muted on the synth surface. Read
> my previous posts and bet against this guy at your
> peril.
Part of the evidence was that it seemed to me, watching his SA Derby, that he was not comfortable on the synth. He traveled above it...didn\'t dig in. Then several people posted their observance of his weaving down the lane...further proof. The fact that he nailed the horses in front of him, who seemed to like the surface, means he may be exceptional.
I\'ll grant you he did pull the Street Sense \"Bluegrass Weave\". At least we now have some terra firma evidence, (Though not evidence of the quality we had with Street Sense).
alm Wrote:
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> Part of the evidence was that it seemed to me,
> watching his SA Derby, that he was not comfortable
> on the synth. He traveled above it...didn\'t dig
> in. Then several people posted their observance
> of his weaving down the lane...further proof. The
> fact that he nailed the horses in front of him,
> who seemed to like the surface, means he may be
> exceptional.
Did you happen to see the 2nd and 3rd placed workouts, today??
Shakes things up indeed!
I\'m with you. I think this work enhances CJ\'s chances. Not only does it set aside any doubts about his ability to handle dirt, it strongly suggests he either prefers it or is coming up to the race ready for a peak. This is a lot different than working a speed horse like Hard Spun in company with a front running filly in 22 57 etc... IMO, A closer like CJ showing brilliace like this in a major work prior to the Derby is a plus. He\'s going to be very difficult to evaluate, but IMO you sure as hell can\'t toss him because of surface question marks.
Suddenly 5 - 1 seems like it could be a gift...although those farmers in Lexington aren\'t going to let this guy go off that high.
How about #21 of 61. Adriano. The work is up on KentuckyDerby.com and to my eye it was awful. Not sure who he was in company with??
The CJ work is up on KentuckyDerby.com. What a monster!I just don\'t think they will beat this horse. What a stride. No \"poly weave\" today.
So easily as well. Won\'t be a better work than that. KD shaping up as two horse race.
He\'s a good work horse. Always has been. The works from Churchill Today were abbreviated. Adriano did not look good. He was life and death to head his workmate and the Jock on the workmate was not set down. Adriano is off all bets, he is a pig.
Court Vision, did not inspire either, however, he got by his workmate.
This is the first I\'ve seriously considered Colonel John, and his pedigree looks nice, but has produced nothing on the female side. He\'s gonna be behind early as is his general style. He\'s certainly no sure thing, but must now be considered. Post Position will be a factor.
Sandreadis Wrote:
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> The CJ work is up on KentuckyDerby.com. What a
> monster!I just don\'t think they will beat this
> horse. What a stride. No \"poly weave\" today.
Its about time you guys are coming around. Hopefully this ends all of the ridiculous posts about him. As I\'ve said before, toss him at your own risk.
I don\'t think it answers anything. Too many times in the past, I\'ve seen horses who are preparing to try a new surface for the first time and they fire a big workout and the media or fans are now convinced they automatically \"love\" the new surface.....and invariably they end up off the board. Why take a low price on a horse who\'s completely unproven on real dirt? I know Tiznow loved real dirt but its possible his offspring are better on synethics.
Loved CJ\'s work but the track could be very different come next Saturday. How many times have we seen the track souped up on Derby Day.
Heck there\'s a good chance of thunderstorms (40%) for both Friday and Saturday the track could be wet. Just a glance at pedigree tells me that a wet track might aid Big Brown, Eight Belles, Z Humor, Adriano, Recapturetheglory, and Pyro.
To your point, didn\'t Big Truck fire a bullet on the poly before the Blue Grass?
This Kentucky Derby looks like the most wide open field I have ever seen. The infield drunks may be betting BB-CJ exactas, but there are some very live longshots that are training well, have two year old foundations and have run on dirt before. I would be shocked if the chalk runs 1-2.
Wrongly,
For those that like Smooth Air, the 42% win pct on mud would give them more reason to like the horse.
Colonel John really explodes the last 200 yards of this work. You can visually see him lower his head and rapidly accelerate. Looks to be feeling really good. Watch the work here:
http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2008/videos
FWIW. Gary Stevens commented on the SA Derby coverage that CJ\'s long stride and 1 run style is much better suited for the dirt. I didn\'t believe him them but that work sure seemed to confirm his assessment.
What would a head to head bet between BB/CJ look like? Could you get 2/1 on CJ?
CJ may not be second choice. Theres a lot of Pyro backers out there. The work is relevant because there was no indication how CJ would handle dirt. Now there is.
I\'ve been enamored with the fillies from the time they were running faster than the colts on the same card. CJ worked 2-3 clicks faster and galloped out to six furlongs about 6 and 11 clicks faster than the fillies. It was a marvelous display by any measure. I thought Eight Belles went faster midway through her work and may have eased herself near the wire, (This was confirmed by the clockers internal splits). If Eight Belles has been easing herself (in her races too) and its not fatigue, she\'s gonna be a handful.
Look at her fly as she appears from behind the tent canopy. This is a big filly but she can scoot. Check out how her ears go up near the wire after shes passed the horses working in the middle of the track. She was definitely gearing herself down where CJ was still on the muscle:
http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2008/videos/1268
http://www.drf.com/news/article/94062.html
Normally, the Churchill training track is dull compared to what they find Derby Day. It was glib Sunday, closer to the souped up version they put out for the Derby.
Many things can happen between now and Saturday. CJ could draw far outside or the 1 hole. It could rain. But horses heading for big Derby efforts put in good Derby works and CJ certainly did,as many Derby winners do. I\'ll check on it, but to this point, I believe his work stands as the yardstick to measure the other\'s, with Eight Belles work following just behind with some degree of interpretation.
MonmouthGuy Wrote:
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> To your point, didn\'t Big Truck fire a bullet on
> the poly before the Blue Grass?
>
> This Kentucky Derby looks like the most wide open
> field I have ever seen. The infield drunks may be
> betting BB-CJ exactas, but there are some very
> live longshots that are training well, have two
> year old foundations and have run on dirt before.
> I would be shocked if the chalk runs 1-2.
How do you feel about the jock showing her the stick towards the wire? Why would he/she do that? To keep her focused?
Ronwar, this is part of the fun isn\'t it?
I don\'t purport to be the best trip watcher ever. I have no idea why these animals do what they do, I consider it a success when I see them doing it.
I think Eight Belles is a big ole talented gangly filly that is still learning. Here is a link to her race clips.
http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2008/contenders/eight-belles
As recently as December 23rd she was caught because she failed to change leads. I think she still gets on the wrong lead now and then. In the workout you can see her looking all over the place at the head of the lane. I\'m assuming the Jock does show her the whip to try and get her to focus, believing that she gets disinterested at times, but I\'m not sure. He certainly doesn\'t hit her with it. Maybe he\'s just positioning it for a left handed tattoo in case she veers in like she did in the Fantasy. In the work, her ears were up and she has her head angled to the right somewhat, but she does that in her clips. It may be shes getting tired late.
In the Fantasy her Jock yanks her to the right after she veers in at the wire. The momentum interruption helps Pure Clan blow by her after the wire. It may be she shuts down when the Jock doesn\'t hand ride her. It would be nice if we had a full 9 pole race, but we don\'t. Still, she was a step slow from the gate and ran wide the whole way and with Oaklawn\'s shortish stretch finished up well.
Its a tough call. Is she all in at the 8.5 poles or is she smart enough to know the running is over at the wire and she\'s shutting down?
I\'ll say this, if shes got more distance in her, she\'s gonna give the boys fits.
ronwar Wrote:
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> How do you feel about the jock showing her the
> stick towards the wire? Why would he/she do that?
> To keep her focused?
Would you say it was a question of him loving it or having the ability to handle
it? If you want to say \"he doesn\'t love it\" that\'s fine.
You\'re saying he liked the track on the day of the work and then 4 days later
he hated the track? And this is the only reason he ran so poorly? Million ways
a horse will lose and most of them we humans really don\'t know about.Possibly the
work itself was the causing factor?Possibly ready to bounce? Larger field and no
pace to run at? Maybe looked out of his stall that day and thought $#@! it,I don\'t
feel like doing $#@) today?
My point is whether you like CJ or not it\'s probably not the surface that will
lead to his downfall.