Time to start developing a strategy for this year\'s derby now that I bought the TG special and have seen all the figures.
To me, this year\'s Derby starts with an analysis of the three favorites, Big Brown, Colonel John and Pyro. I expect Big Brown to go off in the 2-1 range, Colonel John a solid second choice around 5-1, and Pyro around 8-1, with the rest of the field being double digits, most 20-1 and higher, rather than 10-1ish.
A lot has been said about Big Brown on this board already, so I won\'t rehash it all. He is fast, has not moved backwards, has tactical speed and may even wire the field now that War Pass is out. As for pedigree, I have heard people say he is by a \"sire who was a sprinter and has sired only sprinters\". Well, the TG sire stats show a different story. I find it at least interesting that Boundary\'s offspring run roughly the same figure for races less than 1 mile, than 1 mile and over. (granted 1 mile and over doesn\'t equal 1 1/4 miles, but nonetheless this doesn\'t look like a sprinter\'s sire stats.). For me it comes down to two things with Big Brown. First off, the value. I do think he is the most likely winner, but I put it at 20% or so, and he probably goes off at 2-1 or so. I am not interested in making the bet most likely to \"cash\", but rather in the bet with the best expected ROI. Secondly, the stats about 3 year olds running big negative numbers. I know the sample is limited, but horses with more foundation than Big Brown have bounced badly off those big negative numbers. Big Brown COULD BE the freak and the exception, but it is never a good bet to be looking for the \"exception\" or \"freak\" and getting 2-1 if you are right. There is much too much money to made in the event that Big Brown is nowhere in the superfecta slots, which is a scenario that could be very likely.
Next is Colonel John. Four races at 2, starting from a TG \"10\" working down to \"7\". Then, two races this year, working down to a \"3\". In six races, the horse has yet to move backwards. Obviously a great sign. If the races were on dirt, I would love him. However, they are not. The \"3\" he ran last time was with a bo/bi. That isn\'t good. The fact that the \"3\" makes him a non-contender on number power is not good either. The problem is what does the \"3\" on poly equal on dirt? A \"3\"? If so, then throw him out with abandon. If it means something faster, he has a forward moving pattern and is fast enough to win. A few last points before the verdict. First off, Tiznow\'s offspring are a bit faster on synthetic than on dirt and secondly, they develop about 2 points on average from their 2 year old year to their 3 year old year. Both those stats work against him. Another point here, much less scientific, is that I happen to agree with what FKACH posted a few days ago. It does seem that synthetic tracks flatter the form of closers versus speed horses and I will probably buy into that when I make my bet. Gayego moving up, as a speed horse moving from synthetic to dirt, was more predictable than Colonel John, a closer, moving from synthetic to dirt. And I guess the last point is value. How can I take a comparatively short 5-1ish on a horse running on a surface he has never run on? I can\'t. At least not as my key.
Last of the favorites is Pyro. I am going to chose to \"not be a buyer\" on the \"manufactured pattern\" theory and him being perfectly managed to peak in the Derby. I choose to believe he was an early developer, ran a big number in the BC race which was on as sloppy a surface as I can recall. He has had three chances as a 3 year old to run back to his 2 year old top and hasn\'t done so. I know Miff and Jerry have excuses for why he hasn\'t done that and I certainly respect their opinions, but regardless, that is not a healthy stat and as one of the top three choices, I can\'t back him.
Ok, those profiles of the race favorites lead me to my personal betting strategy/hypothesis. The way to bet this derby is to use multiple longshots in the derby when playing horizontally into the Derby and use those same longshots in the top slot when playing vertically within the Derby.
Who are these live longshots? Here are mine, in order of preference:
Tale of Ekati. I am very surprised that I like this horse, but I didn\'t realize he got as wide a trip as he did in the Wood and I also didn\'t realize Jerry was going to apparently give the Wood a relatively fast figure. (I am not the best at translating TG to Beyers, but perhaps Miff can make a comment, as it looks to me Jerry has the Wood faster). This horse didn\'t develop at 2, but was solid, running a streak of \"5\'s\". I actually think he would have developed because if you consider his race in the Belmont Futurity in September, he hit the gate at the start and had trouble in the stretch, waiting for a hole. Once it opened, he shot through very professionally. Anyway, he runs the same figure 4 straight times as a two year old. He comes back in the Fairgrounds race and runs another \"5\", which is right back to his top. Now, if healthy, you would expect the horse to move forward in the Wood. He did, very sharply in fact, if you believe the TG figure. He moves down to a \"0\"!! The \"0\" makes him a contender for sure. One more thing about the Wood. I, personally have no vision for a horse\'s physical appearances. However, I certainly believe this skill exists and several people commented BEFORE the Wood as to how much better this horse looked physically. What to do about the 5 point forward move? Well, he gets a month off. He also has Barclay Tagg training him, and we know Tagg can get a horse ready for the Derby. The two preps don\'t bother me and the fact that is in the 3rd start of his form cycle can\'t hurt. Sure, he could bounce. But I am very willing to take about 20-1 on a horse that might bounce on the chance he might not. At 2-1, I might assume bounce and look elsewhere. But I think you get all of 20-1 on a horse that is fast enough to win and I believe the long string of pair ups, combined with the horse NEVER having gone backwards, make 20-1 very appealing. Not exactly sure why Prado jumped off this horse so quickly, but that only helps the price, if you ask me. I know his closing pace figure in the Wood was slow. But the pace was hot and this horse went 22 and change into the 2nd quarter of that race. The track was dull as can be that day and the slow final fractions don\'t bother me.
Court Vision - Again, this is based a bit on the fast figure in the Wood. This horse got down to a \"5\" as a two year old then bounced a bit off it in his last race, but he bounced with a great excuse. Trapped and in trouble, he had no chance to run until the final 200 yards, but once clear, he ran down the horse in front of him quite professionally. His \"5\" was at Churchill Downs, which is not lost on this gambler, nor is the fact that he exploded through the stretch to finish full of run in that race. He comes back as a 3 year old and in a race where Mott comments BEFOREHAND that his horse is not fully cranked, he runs his top again, a \"5\", which disappoints a lot of people. So, like Tale of Ekati, you need a forward move in the Wood to get excited and he does make that move, down to a \"2\". Now, the \"2\" only makes him a marginal contender, but I think this horse is more likely than Tales of Ekati to move forward again. He has only developed 3 points from his 2 year old top, and he is bred to like the distance and has proven he likes Churchill. I expect another top and if gets down the \"0\" level and gets a good trip, he has a shot. I will also take Billy Mott in my corner and of course I love the 25-1 I can get on the horse.
Z Fortune - Runs a \"5\" last year (sounds familiar). Comes back this year and right out of the box runs a 3 then a 2. For some reason he bounces in the first Oaklawn race, but then comes immediately back to a new top, \"0\" in the Arkansas Derby. Siphon on top is OK, the dam is a bit of a sprinters pedigree. I like this horse less than Tales of Ekati because he only gets 3 weeks rest instead of 4 going into the derby, but the horse is fast enough to win and will again be in the right price range, roughly 20-1.
Smooth Jazz - I probably like this horse the least of the four, but I still like the horse, especially at the price he is likely go off at. Gets down a \"3\" as a 2 year old, which even today, is a very fast figure. Comes back this year as a 3 year old and pairs up first time out. I would have liked to have seen a move forward in his 2nd race this year, but instead the horse bounces. However, he then comes back and runs a new top in the Florida Derby, getting down to a \"0\". That race, with five weeks off, makes him very competitive here. The reason he is 4th on my list is pedigree. The TG sire stats say that offspring of Smooth Jazz run an average of four points faster in races of less than 1 mile than in races of 1 mile and longer. Now, his Fla derby was at 1 1/8, so he has ALREADY outrun his pedigree. But not sure he wants the 1 1/4. However, when you figure he goes off at 30-1 or higher, you can forgive the pedigree as there is plenty of margin for error in that price.
You have four horses that will all be 20-1 or better and all have a good shot to win. I really feel that keying horses in this range is the way to go, because of the flaws of the three favorites.
After looking at the Oaks/Derby sheets, I plan a strategy that has me alive with several horses on Derby day-if I\'m right about the Oaks. Bets are subject to weather & post positions affecting things, but if no PP problems or rain:
Oaks-Assuming Eight Belles runs in the Derby & not the Oaks. If she runs in the Oaks, she becomes my 2nd choice. I really like my top choice Pure Clan. She has never gone backwards, pairing 2.3s in her last 2. She\'s also a HFC 2/2 at CD. I even think she could beat Eight Belles with improvement & a return to her favorite track. My 2nd choice is Proud Spell, who I will excuse the polytrack # in her last race. Savers to use include Ariege, Golden Doc A and Country Star.
Derby-My top choice is Z Fortune. I don\'t see the Ark Derby negative # as too much if I draw a line through the Rebel. Since he started routing, I see a good development line with the exception of the Rebel. The 2008 races at FG provide a nice foundation for his forward move in the Ark Derby, considering it was 2 months further in a maturing 3yo\'s career. I see him pairing that # in the Derby. 2nd choice has to go to Big Brown-he\'s the fastest horse in the race & until an undefeated forward moving horse regresses, to guess he will is done at your own peril. I\'m hoping he does regress enough for Z Fortune to beat him, but I\'ll be playing him equally in case he\'s as good as his -3.2. My savers will be Gayego, Eight Belles, Tale of Ekati and possibly Smooth Air if he draws well.
The bets (before PP & weather variables)
Major DD wagers Pure Clan, Proud Spell/Z Fortune, Big Brown
Savers: Pure Clan/Gayego, Eight Belles, Tale of Ekati, Smooth Air;
Ariege, Golden Doc A, Country Star/Z Fortune (and maybe Big Brown depending on odds of the Oaks fillies)
Edit-After Colonel John\'s Sunday work at CD: At first glance Colonel John looked a little too slow, at second glance I see a horse who has never gone backwards and may like dirt better than poly & may be a move up on dirt. He\'s a must play in my DDs. I\'ve pretty much decided that Pure Clan is the play in the Oaks and I\'ll play her with ZF, CJ, EB & BB, save with her & TOE + adding Visionaire-dropping Smooth Air due to break in training and Gayego (pace too fast-eliminating all on pace horses except BB). Saving with Proud Spell but only putting in ZF & CJ.
I read your post and jimbo66\'s as well, and they both provide some excellent insights. But let me throw in two more horses to consider, and I look forward to feedback. First CCM-toss the poly race, and he got back to his 2yo top in the FOY-in his second start of the year. Although slower than some of the others, he could be heading to a new top, laying just off the pace in the derby. The second horse is Visionaire. Toss his poly race as well, and his forward moving pattern looks pretty good-and his top is not bad at all. Comments?
Robert49,
I would never try to talk somebody off a longshot, but I did look at both cool coal man and visionaire and I don\'t like them, at least not as much as the top 4 I named.
Cool Coal Man did run bad on poly after he got back to his top, a \"3\". However, I am not as willing to blame that on the poly. The reason is that when he got his \"3\" last year, he immediately reacted, bouncing to a \"10\" in his next race, which was not on poly, but was actually the the same track he ran the \"3\" on, Churchill. The \"3\" is not near good enough, he needs to get down to the \"0\" to have a shot to win. Having reacted twice off the \"3\", I am reluctant to see him now immediately move forward 3 more points. Especially considering he \"bore in\" after this second 3. I don\'t see the forward move for a few more races. (BTW, a horse with a similar 2 and 3 year old top of \"3\" but with a much better chance to move forward IMHO because of his healthy pattern is Cowboy Cal)
I am a little more positive on visionaire, but also don\'t love him. I don\'t like sons of Grand Slam to get the 1 1/4 would be my first reason. The second is that I am dubious of the fact that Visionaire\'s best race this year was on slop, which he is bred to handle. The last thing is that I am a bit dubious of that figure because of how god awful Texas Wildcatter ran in his next race after the slop race.
But like I said, longshots are the way to go in this Derby, I strongly believe and your two are going to be long. So, good luck.
nice post jim & everyone , on the same page with most of whats being said here , though i\'m considering a somewhat expanded list of long shots who are off of 2 to 3 1/2 point top efforts ( or less ) including court vision , adrinano , recapturetheglory , anak nakal , cowboy cal and eight belles( a point with-in her top last two races ) all might have another move next before going backwards .
dennis of cork ( 35-1 @ oddschecker.com last evening ) and visionaire off the OX patterns , even though both bounced better than 5 pts off better than 5 pt tops , they could figure to run back at the prices . i\'m looking for pyro in the belmont and bb to bounce next . imo- it\'s a wide open derby
my main focus and attention when looking at the oaks / derby contenders is given to gayego , z fortune & smooth air ... if bet today , i\'d probably box those three 3x and back it up 1 x3 under under bb - who reminds me a bit of curlin except that curlin was off a much smaller top at this juncture in his career .
Jim,
Several things about the Wood and the contenders.
1.It was raced over a drying out but wet dull track.
2.TOE\'s fig is a top on a surface somewhat considered \"wet\" and well below his norm. I tend to doubt such figs until confirmed on a dry surface, not that he did not have the right to move forward sharply(Michael D predicted, I think)
3.Beyer has the whole race slower than TG and I have not yet got the Rags fig and others I use to compare along with my own take.Even with the very fast two turn pace, the whole race came up slow. I don\'t get the fig based on what I saw the whole card on a tough day. The races for the entire day, on an admittedly drying out, speed changing surface, were not THAT slow overall(check Bustin Stones, know it was a one turn race but horses dont run 1.22+ for 7f on totally dead tracks,NEVER. The final Wood was pedestrian even though the first part was fast and last eighth harness time like.TOE did attend the fast pace though.
4.Watch the replay carefully, it clearly shows TOE under a heavy whip at the quarter pole(top stretch), going nowhere, catching WP, a staggering/drifting horse coming back to him while TOE drifted inside. A methodology top imo,but not fast, imo.You may view Prado bailing as a price positive, but a positive it\'s not, I could say more but will not.
5.Court Vision spinning his wheels crawling home against the clock after doing NO RUNNING. Mott/Gomez \"he just did not handle the track\" Yet gets a very nice fig,how?
On the favs:
BB worked 58.3 this am and is \"moving forward\" according to what Tricky told one of the owners. His feet are cold, there is no pulsating from the remaining quarter crack, and it\'s just a matter of whether he can hold together until next Sat.He is still a day to day prop because of his brittle hooves(pops quarters). Has he run too fast for his body to absorb at this point is the only question. He towers over this field on the ability he has shown vs what all the rest have shown.Stop for one minute and tell me of any horse in here that could come close to his freakish Fla Derby neg fig.Many are tossing on the bounce theory and I would be a head of the line except that Tricky is the trainer.I have witnessed Tricky\'s magic up close for many years and he is candidly very optimistic about BB as of 9:00 am today.Stay tuned.
Col John (first time dirt) did not move comfortably over the CD surface but has NOT been set down yet.If he dirts, my eyes tell me he is very dangerous at the 1 1/4 mile trip and will outrun his fig like lots of synth Cali runners.
PYRO (see JB\'s comments) there are conflicting stories on his physical well being. If he works decent and enters I can\'t leave out a horse with fantastic internals with so many plodders in this field.Pyro has never had a chance to run fast yet this year on dirt.A huge question mark cause of the poly debacle.Was it poly or is he hurt. Why is he still training on poly if he so despises that surface?
You are following a bomb/score approach which is my favorite when warranted but I feel differently cause if BB fails, I predict a slow rat may win, which one I don\'t know( I like Adriano for lots of reasons as my slow poly rat)
How the horses move/train over the CD track during the coming days will push me in some direction but with poly/synthetic/Tricky,I\'ll bet but won\'t be stepping out.Rooting for BB and part owner Paul Pompa from the old neighborhood in Brooklyn, gambling aside.
Good Luck Jim and may the winning slow rat be with you.
Mike
Jerry,
Can you comment on the Wood figure as far as how comfortable you are with it. If you are right about that fig versus what Beyer has, it is a significant edge for the TG players in playing this race. However, I don\'t want to base a strategy on a race where you may have marked it is \"?\" and are planning to go back and revisit based on future results (which you have explained on this board in the past that you occasionally do with trickier races to give figs to)
Jim
>>>3.Beyer has the whole race slower than TG and I have not yet got the Rags fig and others I use to compare along with my own take.Even with the very fast two turn pace, the whole race came up slow. I don\'t get the fig based on what I saw the whole card on a tough day. The races for the entire day, on an admittedly drying out, speed changing surface, were not THAT slow overall(check Bustin Stones, know it was a one turn race but horses dont run 1.22+ for 7f on totally dead tracks,NEVER. The final Wood was pedestrian even though the first part was fast and last eighth harness time like.TOE did attend the fast pace though. <<<
There are often disagreements between figure makers when paces are either very fast or very slow because it\'s very difficult to isolate the impact of pace from the impact of track speed on the final time in races like that.
It depends on the beliefs of the figure maker about the impact of pace and tracks speed changes on final time.
Some figure makers incorporate the impact of pace right into the figures as if it was a track speed issue and give out more of a \"performance figure\". That can cause a problem if you add the impact of pace into your thinking on top of that because you will double count the impact of pace.
Others give out a slow figure and let you figure out the impact of pace on each horse on your own. That will cause you a problem if you don\'t know that the pace was fast/slow enough to alter the final time.
Still others don\'t even know there\'s an issue.
Miff -
I think the most relevant race for appraising the Wood is the Excelsior, run by older stakes horses at the Wood distance 30 minutes earlier. They went 1.22 seconds faster than the Wood, with the winner getting a ground-saving trip and carrying 10 pounds less than the Wood entrants. If you assume that those stakes horses ran to their TG figs and the track didn\'t change speeds in 30 minutes, TG\'s Wood figs look sensible.
I think this highlights an issue with Beyer\'s methodology. Even Randy Moss (who I think does some of the Beyer figs) has said that he adjusts those figs for weight (2 pounds equals one Beyer point) when he does his own handicapping. Yet the Beyer figs themselves don\'t build in weight carried. That has to be a problem when you are doing figs for two races like the Excelsior (in which the entrants carried 113 to 117) and the Wood (all carried 123) and have to put them on the same scale.
Bit,
Correct re Beyer, however I always adjust from a baseweight when converting plus ground. The other problem is if you compare the weight and ground of the Wood/Excelsior, the Wood is still too fast(remember the EXC is 6 plus lengths faster raw, app 4+ TG points to start and weight was only app 1.60 plus TG points for the Wood runners)
TG may have had the track changing speed and remember the projections are off the norm of runners, so formula wise, it may make sense looking at the Excelsior.Watch the Wood replay a few times, and then the entire card and tell me the Wood wasn\'t a very fast first half to 5/8ths and a very slow last 3/8ths.How is that a fast \"whole\"race?
Mike
Miff - this is about the best Derby related post I\'ve read so far. Soemone was saying TOE will be 20-1. I say no way - not off the Wood win. I would say Battalgia would make him 15-1 ML and he\'ll get some play from there. I really don\'t see this one making any serious move in the stretch but I do respect Tagg and Coa quite a biut but the horse just doesn\'t inspire. I\'ve been fond of Z Furtune but is another who is suspect on heart. On his best day he might fall into a win but seems to hang too much. Also has a habit of backing up off a top.
The bombs with the most upside IMO are Court Vision and Dennis. Both of which should be in the neighborhood of 25-1
Bit, Do you have the TG figures for Temporary Saint leading into and including the Excelsior? If so, could you post. Thanks
Uncle Buck Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Miff - this is about the best Derby related post
> I\'ve read so far. Soemone was saying TOE will be
> 20-1. I say no way - not off the Wood win. I would
> say Battalgia would make him 15-1 ML and he\'ll get
> some play from there. I really don\'t see this one
> making any serious move in the stretch but I do
> respect Tagg and Coa quite a biut but the horse
> just doesn\'t inspire. I\'ve been fond of Z Furtune
> but is another who is suspect on heart. On his
> best day he might fall into a win but seems to
> hang too much. Also has a habit of backing up off
> a top.
>
> The bombs with the most upside IMO are Court
> Vision and Dennis. Both of which should be in the
> neighborhood of 25-1
more like 15-1 on CV and DoC, and CV will take serious money underneath.
ToE will take less action than CV, mainly because Gomez stuck with CV, and Prado dumped ToE.
Since this is a TG board, please tell me specifically what troubles you about ToEs pattern or figs.
When you say you agree with Miff, are you stating that you also believe (as the infield drunks will) that the Beyer numbers are the most accurate way to gauge ToEs Wood performance?
Because if you believe the TG numbers, ToE has never gone backwards and looks like he may pair his Wood. If he pairs his Wood, he should hit the board.
Mon Guy,
\"When you say you agree with Miff, are you stating that you also believe (as the infield drunks will) that the Beyer numbers are the most accurate way to gauge ToEs Wood performance?\"
....no, check the whole days races and read the teletimer for the Wood, if you know how to read one.
Mike
He\'s a SLOW RAT. That\'s what troubles me. Don\'t talk down to me Monmouth Guy. I\'m not your whippin\' post. If you wanna make a side bet, I\'m game any time.
Hey Buck,
Hee Hee,lots of slow rats in this weak crop. Everyone getting into derby information overload,instead of a cold straight look.
Good luck to all and stick to your guns no matter what anyone else thinks/says.
Mike
Jimbo,
Just a thought.
IMO it is sometimes possible to get good value in exotic combinations using a small underlay on top with some live bombs in exactas, triples etc...
So just because you feel that BB will be an underlay, that does not mean you need to leave him off all your tickets. You just want to leave him off tickets with other underlays or horses who odds are more less in line with their chances. But if you have a 20-1 that you think should be 6-1 or something, BB under and over that horse will probably still be an overlay even though BB may not be on his own. No reason to tear up all your tickets on that live 20-1 if he happens to finish 2nd to BB and fills out a nice exacta.
Since there is some question about the speed of the Wood it might make some sense to first compare TOE and Court Vision to each other without looking at their speed figures.
IMO, TOE had a rougher trip than is generally perceived. He was a bit wide and not that far off the blistering pace of War Pass after a 1/2 mile and 3/4 of mile. I don\'t think that was an easy trip at all even though he was off the pace.
IMO, Court Vision lost a lot of ground on the second turn during his rally, but he couldn\'t have gotten a better pace setup to catch War Pass and TOE and couldn\'t do it.
IMO, TOE ran better than Court Vision in the Wood, but CV has had a very sharp and speedy work since that race (something he normally doesn\'t do) and seems set for a new top to me. I want to see more in the next week or so, but I think their chances are similar. The real issue is evaluating them relative to some of the others. That\'s where the actual speed of the Wood comes in.
I guess a simpler question for you two, and it is meant to be straightforward:
Are you suggesting that the TG figure for ToE in the Wood is wrong?
Buck,
While I don\'t care to be between the war of words between you and Monmouth guy, but I really have no idea how you can be a TG user and call Tale of Ekati a slow rat. If you want to say he is going to bounce of the 5 point move up, god bless. You are probably statistically correct in that a bounce may be the most likely result.
But the horse ran a \"0\" and IMO gets points for being near a very hot pace. He went 22 and change in his 2nd quarter and still went by the 2 year old champ in the lane. He got a 3w/2w trip, while chasing those hot fractions, in his second start off a layoff.
He will be 20-1 BTW. I obviously don\'t KNOW that, but I expect he will be. If he is 10-1, then obviously my optimism to bet him will wane and he wouldn\'t be my top choice, Court Vision would be.
Now, if you are also saying in your post that you would be willing to bet on Denis of Cork against Tale of Ekati, then you are telling me you aren\'t a regular T-Graph user. While I will give Denis of Cork a shot to win, he is definitey a large underdog against Tale of Ekati in a matchup bet. His pattern is erratic and he obviously reacted in his last. It is most likely too soon for him to return to his top. Tale of Ekati has not moved backward yet. yes, he has the big forward move, but off the solid foundation, he is more likely to run a solid race (and both have the same top of \"0\")
If you believe Big Brown will win easily, then you can call all the rest \"slow rats\". BB has run a negative 3 and if he repeats, he is offly likely to win, probably 75% or so. But if you don\'t like him, there are a handful of horses that can run a \"0\", which is the next fastest figure, so horses that are running \"0\'s\" are contenders, not slow rats.
Jimbo-- first of all, one of these years I\'m going to let you do the seminar. I don\'t agree with all of that, but it\'s good stuff. (Now try to do each horse in half as many words). By the way, I believe my comment was that Pyro was the most likely winner AT THAT TIME. Now he\'s a horse that you can neither bet or throw out with any confidence at 8-1.
The Wood figures are right. Bit is right on the money-- I actually took 1/4 point more off the other route, which was the preceding race. The races were 4 points apart in raw time,the figures for the winners ended up exactly the same after you adjusted for weight and ground loss (which Miff doesn\'t count anyway). I haven\'t looked at it, but my guess is that if you adjusted the Beyers for weight and ground you would end up in the same place. Don\'t know what Len did, someone must have his pre-entries.
Fkach-- pace had nothing to do with this.
Mon Guy,
If you do not know, there is no such finite thing as right or wrong in making performance figs. It\'s mostly a skill/art unsupported by any science/math to confirm it\'s accuracy.
The three main/credible fig makers all use the projection method with TG and Rags including ground and weight, which Beyer does not.If you spoke to all three fig makers, you would get an explanation beyond the obvious as to why they are lengths apart in scoring the Wood.Keep in mind that I have tracked these 3 guys for years(mainly TG) and they agree app 90% of the time(within a point)
Like other weather days, the Wood was a tough day weather wise i.e. wind wise, moisture content wise and track speed wise.For myself, I do not say the TG fig is wrong but I have a different view of how fast that race went, from pure racing stuff,talking to connections and getting feedback from more than one jockey/agent who participated.If you are an avid race watcher and saw the whole card and got the feedback that I received, you might not be too sure of the Wood fig either. Then add the general disagreement of the 3 fig makers.
If TOE wins the derby or runs dead last, it neither proves or disproves the Wood fig, imo.There\'s alot more to it than that.
Mike
>Fkach-- pace had nothing to do with this.<
Thanks.
Ground and weight probably accounts for some of the difference between your figure and the Beyer figure.
From my perspective there is ZERO doubt that War Pass would have run faster had he gotten away with a more average pace. I believe the same is true of TOE (to a lesser and more subjective degree).
When I first evaluated the performances for the Wood using the Beyers, I adjusted them for ground loss AND the pace of the race (gave a lot of extra pace credit to War Pass, some to TOE and nothing to Court Vision) and they seemed to make a lot of sense. I am a little leary of doing the same with other figures because I know for certain that some people incorporate pace at times with or without knowing it (they tell me their thinking).
Sandreadis -
Temporary Saint had a 4yo top of \"3\". In his first race as a 5yo (and first race in Levine\'s barn) he got down to a \"neg 1.5\". Then in the Stymie, in which he was sent after Daaher early, he bounced to a \"3.5.\" TGJB has posted that his Excelsior fig was the same as Tale of Ekati\'s. Most of the Excelsior field had tops of between \"0\" and \"neg 1.5\".
IMO if you are using the Wood to gauge Court Vision\'s ability, you have ignored the comments of the jockey who stated the track was very greasy and the colt was slipping all over the place and could not get a good hold.
You dont need to state an opinion that TOEs Wood race was better than CV, that is a fact no one will dispute. But what is more relevant is, assuming CD comes up dry, which horse has the potential to run better on Derby Day? In CV\'s case, using the Wood race is not nearly as relevant as his overall picture and how he is working/previously racing over the CD surface.
I, for one, am hoping for some juicy matchup odds at some of the bookmaking sites for heads up bets vs. someone like TOE or Pyro.
Jim,
\"But the horse ran a \"0\" and IMO gets points for being near a very hot pace. He went 22 and change in his 2nd quarter and still went by the 2 year old champ in the lane. He got a 3w/2w trip, while chasing those hot fractions, in his second start off a layoff\"
Jim,
.....but what about his third and fourth quarter splits? Figs are supposed to represent the \"whole\" race. He crawled the last 3/8ths, how does that come up zero.That looked like a 7 length improvement for TOE from any race he had ever run? WOW!!
JB,
Of course I adjusted Beyers 93 for 8 lbs and total of three paths. It came up app a TG 2, scale to scale. Judging from the fact that Rags gave WP a 9 at GP(equal to a TG 5 1/2) I can only wonder how Rags scored WP in the Wood.Any Rag guy want to post the RAG fig for TOE\'s Wood just for comparison.
Mike
>IMO if you are using the Wood to gauge Court Vision\'s ability, you have ignored the comments of the jockey who stated the track was very greasy and the colt was slipping all over the place and could not get a good hold. <
I didn\'t know that, but I would have ignored it anyway. I never saw a horse that ran a disappointing race that handled the track well or didn\'t come out of the race with an injury according to his connections. ;-)
My perspective on him is different than many other peoples\'. Some people I know hate him because he couldn\'t win despite all the pace in front of him in the Wood. I don\'t think he was nearly as good as the top two in the Wood (and perhaps not that good at all), but I think he\'s very likely to move forward based on his recent work.
Jimbo - you offer a well thought out, non offensive question. From what I can see TOE didn\'t develop much figure-wise until the Wood with his \"0\". I can\'t say the Wood figure is wrong as that\'s not my profession, but visually, the race looked slow and TOE basically fell into the winner\'s circle ALA Giacomo. He looked hopelessly beaten at the 3/8th pole and kept plodding. Again that\'s how my eyes saw it. I recall another strange Wood a few year\'s ago that nobody could agree on (the race Tapit won).
I\'ve said it on this forum at least five times that BB is clearly best in this year\'s 3 yo crop, is my undisputed pick to win and I will be keying him on all tickets.
As to whether I\'m a TG user - yes I am. I don\'t purchase a ton of sheets but I respect the TG methodology and have never even seen a Ragozin sheet. I was first introduced to TG by James Ough at Golden Gate Fields in 1998 or so. My biggest asset in successful handicapping over the years has been CLOSELY watching horses travel, watching for troubled and bad trips and how they look pre-race. I watch hundreds of horse races per week and have for years. I\'ve learned a lot.
Miff-- roughly speaking, Beyer 100 = TG 1, at about 118 pounds. Looks to me like they got it less than 1 point slower after all adjustments (123 pounds, 3w3w).
Buck,
I can\'t blame you betting Big Brown. I happen to think he is the most likely winner, but I can\'t take the price.
I am relying quite a bit on the Wood figure in my assessment of Tale of Ekati, which is why I asked Jerry about it today. Because, my eyes told me after the Wood that I don\'t like Tale of Ekati, Court Vision, or War Pass. It looked like ToE passed a horse that was dying to be passed and was completely gassed from the early pace. And I struggle with using what my eyes show me, versus what the figures say. I could have sworn a number of years ago that Harlan\'s Holiday\'s Florida Derby was an extremely impressive race and I was quite sure he was a legit favorite in the derby. His figure came back light though. I went with my eyes over the figure. No good.
We will see in about 9 days. Good luck!!
JB,
Very close to my conversion chart but I use 115lbs and adjust from there.I kinda backed into my conversion chart over several years of tweaking.This is also how I became aware that you and Rags had drifted from the 3 and 1/2 point scale to scale differential.
Very hard for me to digest a horse finishing the last 3/8ths in app 41 seconds and that race coming up a TG zero for the whole race. Brutal pace, 46 and change for AQU 9f race on that day.I can tell you that within one hour of TOE winning, Prado asked his agent NOT to commit to TOE. Meaningless from a fig point of view but.... .There were other uncomplimentary things that Gomez and Mott said about CV who finished only a couple of lengths off the winner.This was one of the fastest 3 yr old preps, a TG zero?
You don\'t(understandably) consider the extraneous stuff that I do when evaluating a fig but I assure you there is some relevance esp when all three fig makers somewhat disagree.I\'ll just call that an \"ugly\" zero and leave it at that.
Mike
The thing that bothers me about Court Vision is that he hasn\'t been able to do what everyone expects him to do in two straight races. Not only did he not catch the leaders in the Wood, but he made up almost no ground as they were limping home.
In the FOY, he LOST ground to both Elysium Fields and Cool Coal Man in the stretch, and this after the winner clearly backed out of it once gaining the lead. Neither of the horses he lost to in that race are exactly being lavished with praise.
Maybe this horse has some special (i.e. Derby winning) ability. But we haven\'t seen it. I can\'t see playing him, even in exotics.
So far I don\'t see where we disagree, at least TG and Andy. After conversions he comes out around a 1, a 1/2 point different.
If that race had been a stand alone (no other route, didn\'t fit with the rest of the rcaes) it might have been tough to do. But there was another 1 1/8th the race before, I did them both straight up on time, and they basically fit with the day (very slight sprint/route differential, less than usual, far less than often happens). Whatever those horses do in the Derby (various people may read the patterns differntly, let alone that you, fkach and others may add subjective views to the performances themselves), the Wood figures are solid.
By the way, it was 115, but as they have adjusted the scale of weights up and the average weight has gone up, Beyer is going with it. has to, the way he does things, and it\'s right to, doing things his way.
Not a Court Vision fan and think that Anderson/Gomez made a mistake choosing him over Col John. His recent bullet work with blinks make him no worse than many others, imo. His 2yr old win at CD should not be underestimated from the standpoint of handling that surface.
Mike
While in general, that is certainly true about post race excuses, I think the specific facts that Gomez cited make it carry a lot more weight. He didn\'t give the general \"he didn\'t handle the surface\", he gave vivid description of the surface being \"greasy\" and the horse slipping on it, as well as not being fully into the bridle the entire race. That, to me, says he is capable of much better on a track he can handle.
And as for trainer comments, again very true. But in the case of Bill Mott, he is ultra-conservative and a straight shooter. Not one for hyperbole at all. The fact that he choose to repeat Gomez\'s assertions in the post race comments lets me know he agrees with them. And the recent workout to me shows he is indeed continuing to get better and will be able to put forth more effort on a surface he can appreciate. Can he win the race? Not quite ready to say that yet, but he will definitely be in all my exotic tickets.
As for the figure controversy, let me ask this question. If the Wood would have been run a 1 1/4 mile, what do you think the final time would have been? And what figures would they have earned? I don\'t think anyone would have earned anywhere near a zero.
jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Now, if you are also saying in your post that you
> would be willing to bet on Denis of Cork against
> Tale of Ekati, then you are telling me you aren\'t
> a regular T-Graph user. While I will give Denis
> of Cork a shot to win, he is definitey a large
> underdog against Tale of Ekati in a matchup bet.
> His pattern is erratic and he obviously reacted in
> his last. It is most likely too soon for him to
> return to his top. Tale of Ekati has not moved
> backward yet. yes, he has the big forward move,
> but off the solid foundation, he is more likely to
> run a solid race (and both have the same top of
> \"0\")
Jim,
I don\'t see it that ToE has a solid foundation. that was a pretty big jump, and he expended every ounce of energy he had to get there.
that is one talented colt though.
Dutrow fired up after workout
By JAY PRIVMAN
LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Rick Dutrow has said all along he would listen to what Big Brown tells him. After his penultimate work for the May 3 Kentucky Derby on Thursday, Big Brown must have told Dutrow to go jump out of a plane.
Dutrow said he was so amped up after watching Big Brown work that \"I\'ve got to get this anxiety out of me.\"
How so?
\"I think I\'ll jump out of a plane today,\" he said via telephone from Florida. \"I\'m going tandem jumping.\"
That might be a leap of faith, but as far as Big Brown goes, Dutrow believes he is coming to the Derby with the horse to beat.
\"We\'re good. We\'re very good,\" Dutrow said. I\'m gonna go all in again, just like the Florida Derby. I know he\'s the best horse, so I might as well bet.\"
Big Brown, unbeaten in three starts, is considered the current favorite for the Derby, a position he has occupied since his runaway victory in the Florida Derby four weeks ago. He has trained before, and since, at the Palm Meadows training center in Florida, where on Thursday he worked five furlongs in 58.60 seconds under exercise rider Michelle Nevin.
\"He went like a freak,\" Dutrow said. \"No pressure at all. He might have gone a little fast, but Michelle was just sitting on him. I can\'t imagine him breezing any better.\"
Big Brown is scheduled to fly to Kentucky on Monday, then have a short workout at Churchill Downs just days before the Derby.
\"He\'ll breeze three-eighths on Wednesday or Thursday, depending on the weather,\" Dutrow said. \"If the weather\'s going to be good both days, I\'d rather work on Thursday.
\"He looks gorgeous. He is so laid back right now, I could not even imagine it.\"
Other than his jump on Thursday afternoon, Dutrow is not going to let Big Brown out of his sight. Dutrow, who at age 48 will be running his first horse in the Derby, said he will fly with Big Brown.
\"Tex Sutton,\" Dutrow said, referring to the equine transport company, \"has guaranteed me that he will walk out of his stall here at 1 p.m. and be in his stall at Churchill Downs in 3 1/2 or four hours.
\"I\'m going to fly with the horse. There\'s a stall for me,\" he said, laughing, \"and a stall for the horse.\"
Dutrow said he is so confident in Big Brown that he feels no pressure. He said his anxiousness is from anticipation, not nervousness.
\"The only pressure I had with him was when I couldn\'t train him because of his feet,\" Dutrow said, referring to the pair of quarter cracks Big Brown had last fall and then earlier this year. \"He\'s doing fine now. We just got lucky. I don\'t want any changes.\"
Michael,
I know you posted on Denis of Cork a while back and I think you may have even mentioned buying a futures ticket on him.
But do you objectively like his pattern better than Take of Ekati coming into the DErby (assume the figs are the figs and that you aren\'t going to question the wood figure).
5-6-0-6
instead of
5-5-5-5-5-0
If so, then you obviously think that Denis of Cork immediately recovering from his bounce is more a higher percentage chance than Tale of Ekati NOT BOUNCING.
I guess I disagree. I know the five point move up is big, but the horse hasn\'t moved backward yet. Granted, it took him a while to move forward.
I guess that leads me to a general question. Which of the following patterns would the sheet readers on this think is LEAST LIKELY to bounce.
12-10-8-6-5-0
or
5-5-5-5-5-0
or
8-12-6-9-5-0
To me, it is the second. I guess what I am calling foundation is the fact that Take of Ekati established himself strongly at the \"5\" level BEFORE the 5 point forward move. I am not saying he has established a foundation at the \"0\" level, which would be much more powerful.
In regards to never going backward, I just happen to be looking at the \'3yo neg sheets\' that TG put out last year which led me to Bernardini who never took a backward step and who\'s line looks very similar to BB going into the Preakness by the way, but I digress. TOE, BB, and I believe CJ have never taken a backward step. So it got me to thinking of horses who have come to the derby having never taken a backward step. Intitially I looked at the last two years, the results are from 11 horses:
Tops - 2(18%)
pairs -6(55%)
offs - 1(9%)
X\'s - 2(18%)
That initial results got me excited and led me to go back to \'97 and gave a sample size of 60 horses:
Tops - 7(12%)
pairs -16(27%)
offs -12(20%)
X\'s -25(42%)
I will let you decide what it means, but since I looked it up, I thought I would share it.
let me start by saying that DoC\'s moves from 5 to 6, and from 0 to 6 are what concern me most. he\'s backing up when stretching out in paceless races. is he just a back-running middle distance horse, always at the mercy of the pace? will he make a middle move in the Derby then flatten out like a pancake?
as for the generic patterns, I would say neither is strong, but to like DoC\'s better does not mean one thinks he will immediately recover from the strong \'0\' in the Southwest. that race was Feb 18 - two and a half months ago. if he is a 10f horse, I think he could very well pop. ToE has a five point new top one month before the race. bounce? well, I like the fact that this colt was a legitimate \'5\' early last year - he is fast. when I see a very talented colt pop a big new top - a la Bernardini - I am less likely to call for a bounce next out. I also like the fact that Tagg is not the type to crank a horse up for a single race. what bothers me about ToE was the excruciating effort; he was under the whip before the quarter pole, then ran the final 1/8 in :13.4. how many collapsing horses have ever bounced back to win the Derby? Silver Charm? but what was his half in the SA Derby? in ToE\'s favor, you have a lot of chatter out there regarding the slow finish in the Wood, leading me to believe that the issue might very well be in the price. at 20-1, one of the most talented colts in the race (imo) might make sense.
and in regards to the 2nd generic pattern question, you have very ugly patterns above and below ToE\'s type. if you made one of them 10-8-5-0-5-0, I\'d take that one, as long as one of the 0\'s was in a 1 1/16 or 1 1/8 race.
ronwar Wrote:
> So it got me to
> thinking of horses who have come to the derby
> having never taken a backward step. Intitially I
> looked at the last two years, the results are from
> 11 horses:
>
> Tops - 2(18%)
> pairs -6(55%)
> offs - 1(9%)
> X\'s - 2(18%)
>
> That initial results got me excited and led me to
> go back to \'97 and gave a sample size of 60
> horses:
>
> Tops - 7(12%)
> pairs -16(27%)
> offs -12(20%)
> X\'s -25(42%)
>
> I will let you decide what it means, but since I
> looked it up, I thought I would share it.
I wonder how those numbers measure up to the numbers for all Derby runners?
Jerry?
Michael,
I know those jump up patterns are ugly, it was intentional. And I intentionally didn\'t give any pattern where the \"0\" was achieved twice.
Because nobody in this year\'s crop has two races in the \"0\" range, except Big Brown maybe with his 1 and negative 3.
My point is that of the patterns with a \"0\", I like the fact that Tale of Ekati hasn\'t bounced and established his \"5\" consistently at 2. He established a fast 2 year old top, early in the campaign and NEVER regressed from it. That emboldens me a little in that even though he had the big jump up, maybe he can repeat his 3 year old top.
And I do strongly believe that with Prado jumping off and all the negative talk about the Wood, that Tale of Ekati will be every bit of 20-1.
Hats off to Dutrow...he\'s handling this horse perfectly...much better than some of the other trainers...the workout pattern seems ideal to me...the only problem: I think he\'s working the horse in the wrong place to get ready for Churchill.
jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Michael,
>
> I know those jump up patterns are ugly, it was
> intentional. And I intentionally didn\'t give any
> pattern where the \"0\" was achieved twice.
>
> Because nobody in this year\'s crop has two races
> in the \"0\" range, except Big Brown maybe with his
> 1 and negative 3.
>
> My point is that of the patterns with a \"0\", I
> like the fact that Tale of Ekati hasn\'t bounced
> and established his \"5\" consistently at 2. He
> established a fast 2 year old top, early in the
> campaign and NEVER regressed from it. That
> emboldens me a little in that even though he had
> the big jump up, maybe he can repeat his 3 year
> old top.
>
> And I do strongly believe that with Prado jumping
> off and all the negative talk about the Wood, that
> Tale of Ekati will be every bit of 20-1.
I\'m more concerned with the fashion of the big new top than with the pattern last year, though both are relevant. ToE holding his form for all of 07 is certainly not a bad thing. More pattern foundation than conditioning foundation I guess.
anyway, good discussion Jim.
The only horse I was impressed with out of the Wood Memorial was War Pass. Had he kept form I would have had him in the 2, 3 and 4 spots with a token reverse saver.
Nothing else from that race inspired.
Tale of Ekati looks light to me for 10 furlongs. Pedigree wise, both light on top and light on bottom. Sunday Silence tail female doesnt awe me. Granting \"Sunday Man\" was a good sire in Japan, but most of his raced on grass. I don\'t think Tale of Ekati wants any part of 10 poles. Add to that pedigree, that he\'s coming off a large top and this bounce could take him to see the Apollo landing module.
jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Michael,
>
> I know those jump up patterns are ugly, it was
> intentional. And I intentionally didn\'t give any
> pattern where the \"0\" was achieved twice.
>
> Because nobody in this year\'s crop has two races
> in the \"0\" range, except Big Brown maybe with his
> 1 and negative 3.
>
> My point is that of the patterns with a \"0\", I
> like the fact that Tale of Ekati hasn\'t bounced
> and established his \"5\" consistently at 2. He
> established a fast 2 year old top, early in the
> campaign and NEVER regressed from it. That
> emboldens me a little in that even though he had
> the big jump up, maybe he can repeat his 3 year
> old top.
>
> And I do strongly believe that with Prado jumping
> off and all the negative talk about the Wood, that
> Tale of Ekati will be every bit of 20-1.
Dutrow is very happy with the Florida facility. It\'s been good for BJB\'s feet. He has one blow out planned for Churchill. A little blast over the racing strip.
alm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Hats off to Dutrow...he\'s handling this horse
> perfectly...much better than some of the other
> trainers...the workout pattern seems ideal to
> me...the only problem: I think he\'s working the
> horse in the wrong place to get ready for
> Churchill.
Chuckles,
Stick with the pedigree stuff, those of us that read this forum know you aren\'t a TG user. The over/under on number of sets of Tgraph sheets you bought thus far in 2008 is 1.5 and I would take a second mortgage and bet the \"under\".
Not that it makes you a bad guy......
As for the pedigree, not sure why you don\'t find any value in the dam side. Everything I have read and seen says he sired stayers in Japan. Stamina is stamina. Not sure without any real evidence I would dismiss the line as \"turf stayers only\".
If you don\'t look at the TG figure, the Wood is not an inspiring race. If you factor the figure in and you are a believer that a \"0\" with the right trip wins this DErby, and not a negative 3, then you can like Tale of Ekati.
ctc - war pass made a big impression on me as well in that last race showing a lot of heart , although spent and even perhaps running sore or injured in the late stages and in deep stretch , he didn\'t quit for a minute . maybe war pass runs back to the big number if ever makes it back to the race track ...
alm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> ...the only problem: I think he\'s working the horse
> in the wrong place to get ready for Churchill.
If you *really* see this as an obstacle to BB winning (with all other things being equal, other than BB\'s superior figs), my advice is: stop trying to split the handicapping atom. You\'re overthinking it.
Please elaborate
Rick B.
Do you considerthe bounce theory? If yes,what do you see a reasonable
performance?If no,I will say we are have many firsts of recent.
Wasn\'t that the Apollo \"5\"?
Aren\'t we talking about a horse that just sat in the Garden spot and was life and death to run down in a slow closing fraction a horse that had been softened up in a pace duel? A horse that just popped a four to five point top, whose jockey departed immediately after the Wood?
High odds alone won\'t get a horse into the money.
I bought and used TFigs everyday for over a year. I know how to read them. I also know figures are but one arrow in a quiver filled with arrows.
I repeat my opinion. Tale of Ekati will run poorly and miss the money by multiple lengths.
Much like Prado, I think miff believes the Tale Cat is a Slow Rat. He uses TFigs with regularity. Which I point out as evidence that even regular TFig buyers can have vastly different opinions upon what the TFigs reveal. Don\'t be discourged though, you win your under bet. However, the bet that matters is whether the sprint cat hits the board and beyond that wasting combinations upon a \"bounce horse\" and ultimately cashing the Derby.
jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuckles,
>
> Stick with the pedigree stuff, those of us that
> read this forum know you aren\'t a TG user. The
> over/under on number of sets of Tgraph sheets you
> bought thus far in 2008 is 1.5 and I would take a
> second mortgage and bet the \"under\".
>
> Not that it makes you a bad guy......
>
> As for the pedigree, not sure why you don\'t find
> any value in the dam side. Everything I have read
> and seen says he sired stayers in Japan. Stamina
> is stamina. Not sure without any real evidence I
> would dismiss the line as \"turf stayers only\".
>
> If you don\'t look at the TG figure, the Wood is
> not an inspiring race. If you factor the figure
> in and you are a believer that a \"0\" with the
> right trip wins this DErby, and not a negative 3,
> then you can like Tale of Ekati.
>As for the figure controversy, let me ask this question. If the Wood would have been run a 1 1/4 mile, what do you think the final time would have been? And what figures would they have earned? I don\'t think anyone would have earned anywhere near a zero.<
I agree with this, but typically as the distance stretches out the pace slows down.
Jim/Chuck,
On a positive note for those who factor all things, TOE just flashed new early gas(besides a TG total top) according to my calculations.Some believe that a new sudden pace top portends an upcoming big effort.If this was not 10f with 126lbs I might consider it myself.
There has been a long list of so called \"ny wiseguys\" who were in love with TOE ever since his troubled trip win as a 2yr old in NY.Personally have not seen him come off a rather one paced, no gas style until last effort but it was wet and they crawled late.Someone beat me to the slow rat designation but I\'m watching him . Can\'t confirm the explosive TG fig jump up last out after viewing the apr 5th race card until my eyes were bleary.
Mike
I realize Derby winners have trained up to the race in many fashions over many different racetracks, but some of my biggest Derby winners were prepped over the Churchill track for more than a short blowout.
I just lean that way in my preference. I am quite sure Miff is right in noting that Dutrow prefers being there because he thinks the surface is best for his horse.
That\'s my point. It\'s a compromise for a horse prone to foot problems. He doesn\'t get to choose the track for the race.
Jimbo:
Sometimes there are golden nuggets that we find. This one may be insignificant to most, but I find it interesting that COWBOY CAL actually missed a workout prior to his Blue Grass.
There\'s a 2 week gap prior to his final work at Keenland on April 6th. IMO, his sheet pattern is screaming new top.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Big Brown\'s fractions for yesterday\'s :58.60 work, handily, were :11.80, :23.00, and :34.80 before galloping out six furlongs in 1:11.80
Joe B,
I agree totally that Cowboy Cal is going to run a new top. I really think of all the horses in the race, he is the MOST likely to run a new top, surface aside, just based on pattern.
The problem is that with a current top of \"3\", he is slowish. And of course, the fact that his top is on turf and poly makes him questionable on dirt.
But his pattern looks great to me!!
I noticed Cowboy Cal myself screaming for a new top. Others who appear to be poised for a new top next Saturday look to be Adriano, Colonel John and Visionaire. I have Smooth Air pairing and BB pairing or backing up 2 points which still should be good enough for the Roses.
1995-2007 Derby (220 horses)
Tops 18-(8%)
Pairs55-(25%)
Off 48-(22%)
X\'s 99-(45%)
Although possible, tops are hard to come by on derby day for obvious reasons and some have nothing to do with patterns.
CTC-- what year was that, exactly?
I\'ll play devils advocate on this, these splits would break out to be:
11.8
11.2
11.8
and 23.8 for the last 2 we\'ll call 11.8 and 12.0 for the sake of argument (because anything else would be somewhat unusual.
This emphasizes my problem with this horse stretching out. He runs too fast too early and does not have enough energy late. None of his races so far have a brohammer energy rating below 52%, meaning he is using too much energy too early. Only one derby winner the last 35 years (including secretariat - 50.5%) has run a winning derby race with an early energy expension of over 52%, Sunday Silence at 52.08%. (some of the older year\'s data is missing, to be fair, but all years since 1984 plus some other triple crown winners are noted on Dr Romans site). War Emblem wired the field using only 50.23% energy in the early part of the race.
The fractions of this work don\'t tell me they are trying to teach the horse to rate IMO. It would seem that he is going to try to wire the field. I far prefer the work of a horse like Court Vision who has each fraction faster than the last.
Given the figure history for young 3 year olds and the high probability of some sort of \"bounce\" in this race for BB, I am expecting that bounce to manifest itself as a dramatic fade in the home stretch during the last 2 furlongs. Were this race run at 8-9 furlongs, I think the bounce would be somewhat less pronounced, but at 10 furlongs, I\'m betting it is going to be somewhat severe given the data going in and this horse\'s running style.
Thread,
\"None of his races so far have a brohammer energy rating below 52%, meaning he is using too much energy too early\"
....The Brohammer energy rating need fixing. In BB\'s first lifetime start, on a very firm turf course, he walked the first 6 f in 1.11.4 and then proceeded to run the LAST 5/16ths in freak like raw time of 28.2 secs, as a 2yr old no less. Thats why they gave 3 million for 75% of him.
He has never pulled and is not a horse with no mouth.His dead send in the Fla derby was a post position necessity (45.4) of course, he slowed late.Whether he gets the trip next saturday is questionable as it is for all of them.
Mike
You are correct Mike, the turf race was not included in the figures I saw and he probably had a much better energy distribution in that race. His alw win was 52.58%, but I suppose that can probably be excused by how far in front he was and the fact that he geared down. Again, Im playing devils advocate here.
But regardless, I still think the figure history shows there is a bounce coming, and his dirt tendencies seem to show him wanting near the lead. If that is the case and a bounce comes, he is likely talented enough to run most of the front end horses out of the race before fading, setting it up for somebody off the pace. I think if you are looking to play against him, it\'s important to understand the circumstances in which he would likely fail.
Or he could wire the field. And this is all assuming, as you mentioned, he gets a good trip, \"likes\" the surface, and doesn\'t bounce enough off an extreme top to let an improving horse take it from him. Enough question marks for me to take a stand against.
Thread,
Of course he may react.Several others are in the same boat coming off big tops which look reactionary based on their patterns and spacing.Post positions and the list of the final entrants will determine the early race shape.I\'ve read a projection by a pace guy who predicts an honest but not fast pace. Don\'t know how one can do that exercise without knowing post positions and who is in the race.
Several horses impressing the \"body language\" guys who are hawking and gawking at CD.
Mike
That would have been Florida Jerry, all tracks (Though not much at Hialeah. They increased their takeout during this era and with short fields the value was abysmal.). It was approximately 1991 to 1993. I think I scored Lil E. Tee with your work and proclaimed Go For Gin my Derby horse after his first Gulfstream Race, but then got cute on race day. (Go for Gin, was later, but I was looking at TFigs on him.)
It was during the time you had your T.V. Show and touted \"Green Darlin\" in the Delaware Handicap, she won for fun. It was the era of the \"Racing Times\". I was the \"kid\" with the Green Form and the pile of \"flash cards\".
I did more than buy the Figs though. I compared, contrasted, studied and post race reviewed them in their application. (Thats a lot easier now with the enhanced TFig information.)
TGJB Wrote:
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> CTC-- what year was that, exactly?
God, I hate it when you guys use \"abbreviation code\". Who the hell is CD?
Just as I thought, there is no \"CD\".
miff Wrote:
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>
> Several horses impressing the \"body language\" guys
> who are hawking and gawking at CD.
>
>
> Mike
Several horses impressing the \"body language\" guys
who are hawking and gawking at CD.
Chuck, At CD(CHURCHILL DOWNS) there are informed eyes watching a few of the derby candidates and they are impressed with how these few look and act while working.
Mike
Miff, What are the informed eyes saying about the Colonel\'s first taste of Dirt? I thought his SAD was very professional. He seemed very patient and relaxed down the back side. Great stretch drive and most impressive of all was his gallop out. Of all the horses, I\'m most anxious to see his work and how he handles the dirt. I think he could be a monster at the distance. I like the Poly to dirt angle.
Interesting article on Tricky in the DRF. \"He comes across as a flake.\"
http://www.drf.com/news/article/94024.html
The reports I\'ve heard is that CJ is traveling over it like most kids love asparagus.
Sandreadis Wrote:
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> Miff, What are the informed eyes saying about the
> Colonel\'s first taste of Dirt? I thought his SAD
> was very professional. He seemed very patient and
> relaxed down the back side. Great stretch drive
> and most impressive of all was his gallop out. Of
> all the horses, I\'m most anxious to see his work
> and how he handles the dirt. I think he could be a
> monster at the distance. I like the Poly to dirt
> angle.
Sand
Go watch the head on of the SA Derby.The Colonel was anything but professional in the stretch.Doesn\'t mean he can\'t run well or even win at CD,but you should take a look at it.
My guess is you\'ll get at least 20-1 to find out if COWBOY CAL is the next BARBARO.
Good luck,
Joe B.
I\'d prefer the level heads of John Servis or Carl Nafzger, but acknowledging he\'s eccentric, he has become successful at the highest levels and Dutrow is brimming with confidence
From the Article:
\"Since he has run, he has been taking control of his training,\" Dutrow said. \"When he sees a horse galloping in front of him, he wants that target. It\'s not like he\'s being unmanageable, but his mind is going in the right direction.
For some time, I\'ve been of the impression that if BJB comes undone, it will be due to getting overly aggressive and insisting upon the early lead. Expending energy on the lead always raises the question, \"is enough being saved for the stretch?\". This is especially true of 3YO\'s trying the Derby distance for the first time in their life.
If BJB rates in second or third and makes his move at the top of the stretch, I don\'t have much doubt about the outcome. On the other hand, if he wants his targets too soon and insists upon reeling them in early, the race opens up.
I did not like that last workout at Palm Meadows. I\'d much prefer he\'d gone in 1.00 like he had been going. That said, the Churchill strip has been training hot if a Slow Rat like Court Vision can go :46
Oh, by the way, It\'s Official. Court Vision is the Official \"Wise Guy\" horse for the 2008 Derby.
CtC
Uncle Buck Wrote:
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> Interesting article on Tricky in the DRF. \"He
> comes across as a flake.\"
> http://www.drf.com/news/article/94024.html
Sand,
Col John was \"uncomfortable\" not reaching with his normal long stride on Wednesday.Dirt is foreign to this horse and he may need time to get used to it.The transition from running on top of a synth surface to powering thru dirt is not something that all will handle well.He looks physically fantastic as does Pyro, Z Fortune, and DOC.
Col John went much better Thurs and Fri but has not been set down yet,he\'s set to work today or tomorrow but there is concern all around about possible bad weather.
Adriano is dappled out/chisiled and Recapturetheglory, two minute licked, was full of himself.
I follow works carefully every derby and it is rare that a horse trains up poorly and then runs well.Next week on HRTV that will be showing and critiquing all the derby runners working.From my experience, Mike Welch, who is there, has an excellent opinion of watching horses travel and publishes his comments every day in DRF.
Mike
Horse snake all the time on poly/synth(cause they are not digging in for traction) and would not consider that in the same light as the normal bi/bo on dirt tracks.
mike
Big 18741, I watched the head on of the SA Derby. Most of the field was doing the \"Poly Weave\" including the 2nd place horse. Isn\'t this just a very common synthetic surface phenomenon? If this was on conventional dirt, I would be a lot more concerned. Anybody else worried about the CJ weave?
If we accept the notion of the Equix biomechanic guys that horses with long hind tibias are less stable in the slop...and probably on the grass...we might be able to extrapolate that they will also be less stable on synth tracks.
Maybe.
Weaving on a synth track might be an indicator of that. You might be able to deduce that the weavers, lacking traction, will get hold of dirt better. More stable synth runners might not make the same transition...and will actually be slower, relatively speaking...just as grass horses are on dirt.
In other words, there will be move-ups and move-downs between the surfaces...you won\'t know what\'s coming until an individual horse actually makes the transition as there is no practical way to analyze the issue...IF there is a physical issue underlying this in the first place.
At the end of the day, you are right about working well before the big race...the winners almost always look like winners in their workouts.
John was weaving every time Cory\'s stick cracked his ass. I thought I saw the poly breaks from under his feet, as he shot out nearing the 16th pole.
CTC-- Don\'t know about flash cards or green forms. I\'m trying to completely revamp my mental picturse of you as a \"kid\", since you come across as a cranky old man.
I\'m talking to TVG about doing a Post Time-esque spot for them weekly, so I went back to the old tapes to show them what I wanted to do. Shocked the s--t out of me to see how young I looked-- hair on my head and everything. This is a stressful business.
TGJB Wrote:
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> CTC-- Don\'t know about flash cards or green forms.
> I\'m trying to completely revamp my mental picturse
> of you as a \"kid\", since you come across as a
> cranky old man.
The Racing Times Cover was printed in Green Ink, every day of the week. Not just for Saturday.
The \"Flash Cards\" were the TSheets. Approximately 6\"by 8\".
I am a Cranky Old Man. I looked young for my age 15 years ago too.
> I\'m talking to TVG about doing a Post Time-esque
> spot for them weekly, so I went back to the old
> tapes to show them what I wanted to do. Shocked
> the s--t out of me to see how young I looked--
> hair on my head and everything. This is a
> stressful business.
You were very good on that show. I really thought you conveyed well distilled information with straight forward opinion. It was precision commentary.
Don\'t worry about the stress. Your Distorted Humor season is appreciating.
One source of the stress is that I did NOT get a DH breeding right.
I hope the TVG gig comes to fruition. Bob Bedeker, Simon Bray and Vic Staufer can handicap a little (Staufer is a a TG guy) but other than that those dudes are clue-less. Watchmaker on that crazy Friday afternoon show - I can\'t look at him without thinking he hot-knifed too much hash back in the day. It would be a breath of fresh air to have a real handicapper on TVG.
Where I live they don\'t offer HRTV so we\'re stuck with TVG only. Please sign the deal and come on the Network
Unc:
The \"hot knife\" line brought back some old times, but MW looks more like
a \"hash under glass\" type.
And I thought youthful fondness for Heineken with that Red Star on the label was a statement of defiance.
richiebee Wrote:
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> Unc:
>
> The \"hot knife\" line brought back some old times,
> but MW looks more like
> a \"hash under glass\" type.
Uncle Buck Wrote:
> Watchmaker on that crazy
> Friday afternoon show - I can\'t look at him
> without thinking he hot-knifed too much hash back
> in the day. It would be a breath of fresh air to
> have a real handicapper on TVG.
At least you can turn off the TV.. He had the booth directly in front of me at the tournament...I had to watch that all day long for two days...He has that lost look all the time...