The silence of the media around Smooth Air\'s chances or any updates on his works are puzzling. I\'m sticking with him as my key horse for the Roses. He\'s 13th on the money list, yet I almost wonder if he\'s been declared from it and I missed it. I thought he ran extremely well in the FL Derby, very professional...let\'s get to it!
Shanno-
After a pokey mile work (1:41), SA came back and worked 7f in 1:25 and will be
shipped to Churchill...
The Downey Profile gives a fairly comprehensive day to day description of the
various Derby contenders\' comings and goings.
The last Calder based horse to win the Derby was...?
How does Smooth Air\'s pedigree look in terms of getting 10F?
He ran a very good race in the FD, but originally he looked more like a sprinter that was trying to stretch out.
The \'pokey\' 1:41 mile work was 5-6 seconds faster then all other 1m works that day. I\'m all smiles. Regardless of the outcome I count my future wager in pool 1 and pool 2 on Smooth Air the wisest wager I\'ve ever made. A pair of 3\'s for a 2yo top. Got right back to the top 1st out at 3. Got the bounce out of the way in the Sam F. Davis, and then runs a new top that is good enough to be right there. I Don\'t see a bouce on the horizon either because he paired his previous top at 2 and the new top is only a few points better than the 2yo top.
L\'il E Tee
I have a funny feeling, Smooth Air will be a BIG underlay, on the first Saturday in May.
my futures pick is getting a bit of press. picked up Borel. still needs a defection or two though.
http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=44710
Michael D. Wrote:
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> my futures pick is getting a bit of press. picked
> up Borel. still needs a defection or two though.
>
> http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=44710
Likes the surface.Needs an honest to hot pace to run at.Faster than most in the field if he gets back to the Southwest.
Proud Spell
Eight Belles
Massive Drama
Behindatthebar
Are in the field if they want to go.
Jones could cross enter both fillies.Zayat owns Massive Drama,Z Fortune and Z Humor.He might use Massive Drama as a rabbit or enter him and scratch.Behindatthebar doesn\'t sound likely.
Big Truck and Bob Black Jack are ahead of Denis on earnings.
Denis currently sitting at 23rd assuming Salute the Sarge doesn\'t enter.
If there are no surprise defections he still needs 3 of the above not to enter.
Good Luck.He seems kind of live.
I heard from the folks down in Louisville that Bob Black Jack\'s connections are wavering as to whether to enter. They are a small outfit and the 50k entry fee has them thinking twice so you may get a defection there.
Only issue with this though is that the pace in this race is fading fast if BBJ isnt\' running and with the injury to War Pass.
Massive Drama makes the pace real hot.
On the other hand that one entering could exclude Denis of Cork.
I don\'t know how I\'m going to play the Derby yet, it\'s an interesting betting race, and I don\'t know what I\'m going to do with DOC. But that aside, I really hope he runs well just to stick it to those in the press (and elsewhere) who thought the connections made a mistake by giving the horse extra time after his big top. Yeah, he bounced in Illinois-- he was supposed to. If they ran him back quicker, he might have bounced worse, and not come out of the race okay. In the long run, that extra 3 weeks may have saved this horse\'s career, or at least his 3yo season.
The racing year doesn\'t end the first Saturday in May. It begins then.
Anybody know if the Win Star horses will be coupled?
Jerry
I\'m almost positive they go as seperate betting interests in the Derby.The last time they had entries was the High Yield year-there was a 3 or more horse entry that sucked up a bunch of money.
I e-mailed Haskin regarding DOC getting in.
He has Massive Drama going in the Woody Stevens Belmont Day.
Behindatthebar in the Preakness pending Sanan/Tap consult.
Didn\'t think both Jones fillies would cross enter.
Said the word is-Churchill told DOC\'s trainer he was in.
Note that Zayat also has Halo Najib, who is right behind DOC on the graded earnings list.
If I was considering betting Denis of Cork I would be a lot more worried about whether he has enough ability to win and whether he\'ll get enough pace to run at in the Derby (now that War Pass is out) than his performance in the Illinois Derby.
The Ill Derby is a total toss. The pace came up slow and the horses went 1-2-3-4-5 right around the track.
http://www.drf.com/row/charts/08HAWillinoisderby_chart.pdf
The problem is that in his fast race he had a perfect pace setup for his big late run.
http://www.drf.com/row/charts/08OPsouthwest_chart.pdf
He may never have been as good as he looked off that race. He\'s a nice horse, but IMO he\'s very misunderstood at present. He\'s not as good as he looks and not as bad as he looks all at the same time. ;-)
TGJB Wrote:
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> I really hope he runs well just to stick it to those in the press (and
> elsewhere) who thought the connections made a mistake by giving the horse
> extra time after his big top. Yeah, he bounced in Illinois-- he was supposed
> to. If they ran him back quicker, he might have bounced worse, and not come out > of the race okay. In the long run, that extra 3 weeks may have saved this
> horse\'s career, or at least his 3yo season.
>
It\'s this type of thinking that really has to have you appreciating a horse like Smarty Jones, no?
> Anybody know if the Win Star horses will be coupled?
>
With very rare exceptions, there are no coupled entries in Grade 1 races in Kentucky
EdD
Love Smooth Air as well, Got 90-1 locked in on him, very happy about that.
I have a strong hunch we\'re going to see some blistering fractions in this Derby to foil Big Brown.
Of all the Derby contenders I haven\'t seen any with a consistant move to pass horses around the final turn like Smooth Air has.
\"Problem is that in his fast race he had a perfect pace setup for his big late run\"
.... and only got his last quarter in app 25.1 ...woop dee doo!His connections did say he is a very light framed horse that needs time. Also the bail out by Alvarado is suspicious as no jock gives up a live derby mount with a shot.
Mike
Big Brown ON TOP!
These One\'s Underneath in exacta\'s tri\'s and a little super action:
Smooth Air
Pyro
Colonel John
Adriano
Gayego
Z Fortune
Court Vision
Visionaire
Here\'s the play:
$200 WP on BB - $400
$20 Exacta - $160
$4 reverse exacta with Brown underneath - $24
$1 tri w/BB on top - $56
another time - $56
$1 tri w/BB in middle - $56
$1 super w/BB on top - $336
Total Damage: $1,088
Uncle,
Whaddaya doin\', shopping at the grocery store? Just kidding. Good luck.
fkach Wrote:
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> If I was considering betting Denis of Cork I would
> be a lot more worried about whether he has enough
> ability to win and whether he\'ll get enough pace
> to run at in the Derby (now that War Pass is out)
> than his performance in the Illinois Derby.
>
> The Ill Derby is a total toss. The pace came up
> slow and the horses went 1-2-3-4-5 right around
> the track.
>
> http://www.drf.com/row/charts/08HAWillinoisderby_c
> hart.pdf
>
> The problem is that in his fast race he had a
> perfect pace setup for his big late run.
>
> http://www.drf.com/row/charts/08OPsouthwest_chart.
> pdf
>
> He may never have been as good as he looked off
> that race. He\'s a nice horse, but IMO he\'s very
> misunderstood at present. He\'s not as good as he
> looks and not as bad as he looks all at the same
> time. ;-)
it\'s no secret now that he\'s a one run colt that prefers pace. if you had seen this before the Southwest, you had an $11.60 horse:
Michael D. Wrote:
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> 8 Denis of Cork -
>
> very nice \'5.5\' 1st out, closing 4 wide into a
> fast pace. got stuck behind a slow pace last while
> 4w/4w over an off track.
>
> gets pace here, and should get a dry track.
>
> wide trip the risk, but odds should be decent.
>
>
>
> Denis of Cork the key, use He\'s Eze and Turf War.
I can\'t remember if Go For Gin ran at Calder, but Lil E Tee was a Calder based horse snapped up by the late Cal Partee and Lynn Whiting. I loved him from the moment I saw him run. I might have gotten a little lucky in the Derby with him due to A.P. Indy\'s defection, but I was gonna bet Lil E. Tee regardless.
richiebee Wrote:
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> Shanno-
>
> After a pokey mile work (1:41), SA came back and
> worked 7f in 1:25 and will be
> shipped to Churchill...
>
> The Downey Profile gives a fairly comprehensive
> day to day description of the
> various Derby contenders\' comings and goings.
>
> The last Calder based horse to win the Derby
> was...?
If you don\'t factor him, I sure hope you don\'t want him to run big.
TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I don\'t know how I\'m going to play the Derby yet,
> it\'s an interesting betting race, and I don\'t know
> what I\'m going to do with DOC. But that aside, I
> really hope he runs well just to stick it to those
> in the press (and elsewhere) who thought the
> connections made a mistake by giving the horse
> extra time after his big top. Yeah, he bounced in
> Illinois-- he was supposed to. If they ran him
> back quicker, he might have bounced worse, and not
> come out of the race okay. In the long run, that
> extra 3 weeks may have saved this horse\'s career,
> or at least his 3yo season.
>
> The racing year doesn\'t end the first Saturday in
> May. It begins then.
>
> Anybody know if the Win Star horses will be
> coupled?