For those of us that like to buy the hard copy TG, would you be kind enough to post a sample of your new product? A \"Redboard Room\" version would be fine.
Thanks
In about a week we\'ll be putting it out with the hardcover product and online for free for a while.
Hi Jerry,
I currently use (and perhaps others use) BRIS\'s pace figures as a way of attempting to gauge who has the ability to go to the front and where horses might be in general. I\'m not sure if you are familiar with how they make these figures, I am really not.
Is it safe to assume that they most likely do not factor in all of the different things you guys are factoring in when making these figures, thus making yours more accurate? They are just chopping up the time and not taking ground loss, weight, and variants into account? I definitely like the idea and presentation of your product, just want to make sure I\'m understanding how it is superior to the tool I\'m using today.
Sorry if I am a dunderhead....but....are raceshapes currently available or are they to come out in the future? Am looking for it for a race today if it is available (already purchased the figs for the race).
TreadHead -
That\'s one of the problems I have with BRIS. They are not very informative about what is and is not in their numbers. If you go to the FAQ page about their pace figures, they give you some rudimentary information, and then tell you the figures are calculated using their \"proprietary techniques and algorithms.\" They do say that the figures are adjusted for a variant. Since BRIS doesn\'t incorporate ground loss or weight into their speed figures, it seems fair to assume they don\'t do so for their pace figures, but the issue is not discussed.
Don\'t know the Bris product or what they take into account, but ours do take into account all those factors, plus a more accurate variant than others have, and wind, which most 9as far as I know) others don\'t account for.
We\'re going to be giving it away free starting some time next week for the major tracks, both on line and hardcopy. There are still some bugs in it (and we want to here from you when you see them, via email so it doesn\'t clutter up the board), but by the end of the free period this will be the best product of its kind.
Sorry to jump in here, but I was wondering if your figs take into account things like BB\'s weaving all over the lane in the Florida Derby. He obviously ran farther running that way, but it seems like something difficult to measure.
If you actually sit down and work out the ground loss for something like that it is very minor. No, we don\'t measure it.
TGJB,
I\'m well versed on the Bris methodology regarding pace figures and what type variants they use. I\'m a complete novice on how you arrive at your figures.
I will say the Bris is a lot more indepth than what is being portrayed in here.
Regarding your Race Shapes product, I predict you will have to separate the Poly races from the synthetic tracks, as the synthetics are \"different\" than Poly. Its actually unquestioned.
If your people have to ability to do a random test run as the Race Shape now stands, and then can go in and tweak the material to separate the Poly from the Cushion, Pro Ride and Tapeta, then you will get what you are looking for. If Poly continues to be viewed as just another synthetic surface, the product will merely be good, but not great. Comparing all synthetics to Poly is like comparing turf to dirt. It just plays different.
Just my opinion.
This goes to the same issues that came up in your first lengthy email to me, where it was clear that you had not read the material that went with the data, since you didn\'t understand we were taking track speed into account.
The fact that poly has different characteristics than other tracks does not matter in terms of what we are doing here. What matters is how fast the surface is, and we measure that better than anybody else (there is a lot of material on this site that explains how, from the intro section to the \"Changing Track Speeds\" presentation in the archives to hundreds of posts on the subject).
Additionally, if you look at the race shapes presentation, you will also see that the adjusted quarter times for each horse\'s last 8 races are listed. The figures used in the graph represent an average of the horse\'s last 3 times, but the handicapper has the option of using other recent running lines instead if he thinks they will be more in line with what will happen today. This is, in fact, why we list the jockey for each race, which we don\'t do for our other data. In fact, a sophisticated handicapper like yourself could throw out the poly lines and just use the ones from dirt, if that\'s what they are running over today.
JB,
Would have been surprised if you did not respond as you did.One thing on synths/poly is that many jocks are instructed NOT to dead send and you will often see early speed horses taken back. Now, race shape wise, there is no possible adjustment but poly/synth may somewhat distort your race shape figs when jocks are not sending as they normally would.
Mike
Miff-- right. The graph is not a prediction, it is literally to give some idea of the shape of the race. Is there a lot of speed, roughly how fast does the first quarter figure to go (that\'s primarily where the glitches still are), does a horse on the outside figure to be able to drop in, etc. Like the sheets and profiles we sell, it is data, not a prediction, and as people get used to using it I\'m sure they will develop ways of doing so that are different from mine and each other\'s.
Tell you one way I\'m going to use it-- in giving riding instructions. Which by itself tells you that you can\'t take the graph literally, because horses I\'m involved with won\'t necessarily be sitting where they have been. As I said in the material, trainers and jockeys handicap too.
One thing I can tell you with a high degree of confidence is that it\'s WAY easier to predict a slow pace than a fast pace.
So much of what happens in races that appear to have 2 (or even 3) speeds is dependent on the break and the decision of a single jockey, things often wind up going a lot differently than expected. It\'s not until you get to 4-5 speeds that you can be fairly certain that the pace will be fast and some of the speeds will either get used up going for the lead or get outrun early and not run back to their best figures. You don\'t see nearly as much variation in races loaded with deeper and slower closers. Few slow closers suddenly show a ton of speed.
It also helps to consider running styles and not just fractions.
When it comes to pace, many horses only run as fast at they have to (within their range of ability) to secure a favorable/desired position. So if you see a lot of \"1\"s in the PPs, the horse could easily be a lot faster early than his fractions in his last few races.
This is very good product!
As a big fan of pace and trip, I think your customers would be smart to add it to their shopping lists.
smalltimer Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> TGJB,
> I\'m well versed on the Bris methodology regarding
> pace figures and what type variants they use.
> I will say the Bris is a lot more indepth than
> what is being portrayed in here.
small,
please explain.
thanks.
Michael D.
I may have used poor wording when I said, \"I will say the Bris is a lot more indepth than what is being portrayed in here.\" If it came off as I was comparing the Bris methodology to Thoro, that wasn\'t the intent.
What I\'ve read from most of the guys who post here is that Bris doesn\'t factor in as many variables as Thoro, that could be true, however, I\'m a total novice regarding Thorograph, but I\'ve been highly successful with the Bris numbers.
I\'ve just never found them lacking in accuracy and I\'ve had a lot of people challenge their figures because of final race times between circuits, etc, but when I break down their numbers, they are always right on the button.
I\'m primarily an angle player and I rely on the Bris numbers to indicate the predominant speed in the race and I can quickly visualize the way the race \"should\" set up.
For example, as I look at the last outs by Big Brown in the Fla Derby and then War Pass in the Wood, this is what I see. War Pass 121/123/71 and a SPD of 99 going the mile and an eighth. Big Brown 107/117/98 and a SPD of 110. On paper, even though those races were on different tracks, at 4F War Pass would be clear by 7 lengths and at 6F he would be clear by 10 lengths and in the stretch Big Brown would pick up 13.5 lengths and finish about 5.5 lengths in front of War Pass, simply because War Pass walked down the lane.
I\'ve also looked at the 1 Mile Allowance race that each of them ran at GP.
In those races, Brown is at 96/105/96 with a SPD of 102 and War Pass was 85/88/110 and a speed of 100. So, on paper at that mile distance on the same track Brown at 4f would be clear by 5.5 lengths, 6f at 14 lengths and during the stretch War Pass would pick up 7 lengths. At the finish, Brown would have run the 1 mile race and won by about 1 length. So, in a nutshell, in looking at a possible Derby scenario, I see (assuming they all break clean which they won\'t) War Pass going right to the front, (no big revelation) and probably being very difficult to corral for at least the first mile 1/16th or so. I think his collapse in the Wood would make anyone suspicious of him every getting the Mile and a Quarter. We also know, War Pass must have the lead to have even the slightest chance. If he\'s shuffled back, its all over, whereas Big Brown can get shuffled back and probably still come running.
In those two examples, I\'m not concerned with ground loss or post position as will not be the case in the Derby.
I think its likely any horse that sets a couple lengths off War Pass for the first mile will be toast by mid stretch. But, its way to early to make any predictions, but its not a risky comment to say that if War Pass breaks clean, he will go to the front. Period.
I think if Brown decides to hook War Pass early, you can stick a fork in both of them because War Pass has no choice but to be on the front and once he gets passed the connections will know he\'s toast, so I assume he\'ll run as hard as he has to, to get the lead and hope they let him get away with soft fractions. Even though War Pass has stopped at the shorter distances, if they let him coast out there in 47.0 or so, it could take awhile to reel him in.
I can elaborate further if you\'d like. It\'s hard to get too detailed without putting people to sleep.
I would entertain any follow ups though.
smalltimer Wrote:
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> Michael D.
> I may have used poor wording when I said, \"I will
> say the Bris is a lot more indepth than what is
> being portrayed in here.\" If it came off as I was
> comparing the Bris methodology to Thoro, that
> wasn\'t the intent.
thanks small,
why is Bris a lot more in-depth than what is being portrayed here?
they don\'t use ground or weight as far as I know. do they use wind?
I use Bris all the time, and find the product useful (especially for the price), but it does have its limitations.
btw - look at the pace ratings on Monba last week. 66/73/114 last synth.
Small,
The comparison does not take into account the fact that War Pass was under a death grip the 1st quarter of his first race at GP whereas BB was hot on the chase.The Bris pace figs do not show the \"death grip\" part of WP\'s quarter, only the raw fig which was slow because they crawled early.Point is, without seeing the race and it\'s early shape, the figs are not that useful and do not really tell who is quicker in this case. I think WP is the quicker early, one dimensional speed,BB is kinda unknown yet in that regard.
WP has \"sprint\" speed, BB never sprinted and don\'t know if he\'s got the same early gas as WP.Connections insist BB is not hot and does not pull. Guess we\'ll see if they both go on derby day.Have seen Bris enough to know it is not in the same league as TG, Beyers or Rags( final figs, not pace figs)
Mike
Michael D,
I indicated that I\'m not comparing Bris and Thoro and the variables they use in their methodology. What I did say, is that I\'m well versed in understanding the Bris numbers and I\'m admittedly a total novice regarding the Thorograph approach.
Even though Bris would have its limitations, I\'ve yet to find any site, including this one, that is without limits.
Regarding you question about Monba. In looking at the HOL race at a mile 1/16th on Cushion and pace numbers of 66/73/114 with a SPD of 95, and the Bluegrass at a mile eighth on Poly with numbers of 91/103/86 and a SPD of 97, then I doubt Monba left anything on the track. If you are strictly comparing the two races, clearly the Cushion race way slower early and way faster later, and the Bluegrass was much faster early and much slower late, of course, the extra 1/8th was a big factor there.
At this point, I don\'t like Monba at all in the Derby. He\'s bred to be an excellent synthetic horse, and he is. But, he\'ll have his hands full with some of the better horses in the field at Churchill.
Michael, educate me on the \"weight\" issue, okay? I\'m being sincere, I only started to pay attention to this board in the last day and a half, so you seem to have a good handle on the factors you consider important. I think the ground loss speaks for itself. Thanks.
Miff,
Thanks for the comments. I watched the War Pass race live and seen the replay several times. I thought he was throttled from 15 seconds into the race, but honestly, I was really concerned with how he ran up the stretch in that 1 mile allowance race. It just seemed like his rump was almost stationary, he didn\'t seem to be able to use his hindquarters to push off. So to answer that part of your question, I watch tons of replays so I can draw my own conclusions about who\'s being pushed forward and who\'s being restrained. Obviously, War Pass was under heavy restraint. I\'m really bothered by the type of campaign that Zito has had this horse on. It seems to be all about taking the path of least resistance. He could have showed up in the Fla Derby or the Lecomte or any of the strong prep races, instead he takes him to Tampa Bay to face a bunch of midrange 3 year olds. It almost seems as if they\'ve just tried to protect him and get him to the Derby in one piece, it almost seems like they\'ve just dulled his early speed so much that he hasn\'t improved much.
As far as Beyers, I find mistake after mistake after mistake in those numbers. So I\'m not much of a believer in them. Personal choice here.
That\'s what I like about this forum, there are some guys who really know their Thorograph stuff, and I\'m just a novice. As I stated in a earlier post, I\'m primarily an angles guy, I know bloodlines, I certainly know artificial surfaces and how they vary and who produces the good ones on those surfaces. But, its all good, every good idea or concept that makes a person look at things differently is good for the sport.
Off the topic for a minute, I read the Beyer article in the DRF and as far as I\'m concerned he\'s thrown in the towel in trying to figure out artificial surfaces. Its a shame, because he\'s supposed to be an expert, and he\'s clueless.
did you figure out that Relaunch stuff yet?
Small,
For the most part Mark Hopkins is the current guru of Beyer speed figs not Andy. For those critical of Andy Beyer, I assure you that he has made monster scores(one in my presence) which I doubt many of his critics have or will ever make.
By the way, many of the pro type players/whales do not gamble the synthys/poly tracks, as the results are far too chaotic/inconsistent. Giving up one of the strongest angles in racing, speed, does not sit well with many.If you\'re making 4 horse $1.00 boxes or something like that, poly/synth is great.If you are a step out bettor,it\'s a disaster.Pure turf horses regularly running over much faster dirt horses. Make\'s perfect sense.
Mike
Michael D,
Sorry I missed the follow-up on your question. I\'m headed out the door to work (2:50 a.m. CST), I\'ll send some info later in the afternoon.
Thanks
Miff,
I\'ll respond later this afternoon, I\'m headed out the door for my real job.
Thanks.
This from the Keenland Spokesman regarding the huge downturn in handle so far at the current meet:
\"Williams acknowledged that anecdotal tales abound in regard to how some bettors have scaled back their wagering because of unfamiliarity with, or a dislike for, synthetic surfaces, but added that if those are true, then why were records set last spring?\"
Ahem,
.....typical of the prototype clueless modern racetrack exec, this guy doesn\'t know why whales and large bettors are staying away from Kee this year. Well duhhhh, they NOW realize it\'s IMPOSSIBLE to bet serious on that despicable surface and grind out a rebate type profit which many strive for.True that many whales are stock market guys or business entrepreneurs who are feeling the pressure of the present economic downturn and poly is their excuse to back off.
Most importantly, while some whales are under the radar, some are open. How bout a brilliant idea, ask the fking big customer?? Thank goodness there are enough people in NYRA\'s Charlie Haywards ear(trainers,owners,customers) so that they move slowly and get this surface thing right for everyone involved in the game.
Mike
Mike
Miff:
I know you love Jerry Bossert\'s name for the Kee surface:
He calls it \"Follytrack\".
Miff, I like Keeneland as a track and a tradition too much to start shoveling
dirt over the grave.
I am sure the cetaceans are doing what a lot of others said they intended to
do..go easy on the surface until there is more data to work with; given the
shortness of the Kee meets the data accumulates slowly.
The day to day quality of racing at Keeneland is quite good to say the least,
arguably the best offered in the US.
Miff, I agree with you. I am a rebate player and I will not bet Keeneland or Delmar, because of the track. I still think the turf at Keeneland is worth playing, but the main track is impossible for me. Do you think the Pletcher horses would have run 1-2 at Aqueduct? IMO that track was clearly too there advantage and those 2 horses, just love the stuff.
\"The day to day quality of racing at Keeneland is quite good to say the least,
arguably the best offered in the US\".
Bee,
Kee has the best racing by a pole, but you can\'t bet serious money on it. Do you think it was a coincidence that the pick 6 was not hit for 8 days?
Kee is a beautiful place, needs a nice new dirt surface and they can get the money by selling the present wax and rubber to condom companies.
Regards,
Mike
I would be surprise if the decline in Handle does not extend to the other Polyquack tracks – namely DMR, AP, & WO.
It\'s nothing short of amazing to me that this thread just popped up, as I just decided last night to stop wagering on all of the fake surfaces.
After an honest examination of my records, there\'s no getting around it -- I\'m getting killed on poly, cushion, Tapeta, doesn\'t matter: if it\'s fake, it\'s eating my bankroll.
I suppose there are those who will opine that I am a bad handicapper, that I can\'t adapt, that this is sour grapes, etc., and that\'s fine -- you might be right.
But I\'m tired of losing on these surfaces, and I don\'t mean just a little bit: my return on fake track bets is an embarrassing 16 cents on the dollar. When I remove fake from the equation, I\'m only losing a few pennies on the dollar, and my rebate takes care of that.
So it\'s a no-brainer. Fake advocates -- it\'s all yours! Enjoy.
>Most importantly, while some whales are under the radar, some are open. How bout a brilliant idea, ask the fking big customer?? Thank goodness there are enough people in NYRA\'s Charlie Haywards ear(trainers,owners,customers) so that they move slowly and get this surface thing right for everyone involved in the game.
<
I read an interview with Charlie Hayward just the other day. It was mostly about NYRA budget issues, OTB, simulcasting and other key issues. Poly, the future of Aqueduct, and other issues came up also. I don\'t know C.H., never read much about him, never saw an interview etc... So I went into it expecting him to be another idiot. I came away thinking there was some hope. I think he has it figured out. It\'s a matter of how much power he has.
If we could just round up all the politicians and make them part of a new dirt surface, we\'d be in good shape. ;-)
> Kee has the best racing by a pole, but you can\'t bet serious money on it. Do you
> think it was a coincidence that the pick 6 was not hit for 8 days?
>
This is blindingly ignorant. The pick six doesn\'t get played in Kentucky like it does in SoCal or even New York. It takes a week-long carryover to get pools into the six figures in Kentucky. Churchill on dirt is the same way.
Ejxd2,
Regardless of the small amount being played day 1,2 3, it\'s not getting hit because the races are too tough to figure on a REGULAR basis. Granted Cali and NY bet much more on day one.Considering the size of the carryover going in they did not bet that much money because of the garbage surface, capish?
Mike
Or to put it another way, there\'s a reason it takes that long to grow. The first few days can be a function of the local bettors-- once it gets to 100k, it\'s a national phenomenon.
Does Keeneland even accept bets from offshore shops (whales)? I was under the impression that they do not.
I agree, Poly/cushion they stink. It has ruined the preps, and it will ruin the Bcup too. When and if I bet poly again it will be because I want to have a few drinks and smokes with the boys, strickly a get out of the house and throw some dollars away. How can anyone bet a few hundred to win on a horse that is first time poly to dirt and feel confident. This does not bode well for the cup this year.
The real shame is the cluless exec\'s in Cali(esp the imbecile at Del Mar) became annoyed when some large bettors complained about the surface.How dare the customer complain, shut up and bet your money.The Del Mar imbecile( his name escapes me) had the nerve to laud the intro of poly as a great success while a large number of people across the country called that surface a disgrace to racing (as was Kee for that disgraceful 2007 Bluegrass debacle)
Talk about clueless this DM guy takes the cake, but NOW they are revisiting adding jelly cable to make the surface tighter. Maybe the fastest sprinters in Cali will break 1.11 for 6 f this year at DM.
Mike
Del Mar was notch below heaven before they installed the new surface.
Why don\'t they just put Poly at Wimbledon next? ugggh
\"The real shame is the cluless exec\'s in Cali(esp the imbecile at Del Mar)\"...Joe Clueless Harper...
I bet with RGS and they do not take Keeneland. But some rebates shops do offer the track.
Do these Synthetic Execs seriously bet racehorses? Maybe if they actually sat down and handicapped one of their races and then after the race runs says \"what the hell just happened\" when none of their horses finish on the board. Maybe then they might start understanding that no serious gamblers want to play their product
I am not a whale, I\'ll play about 1,000 to 1,500 a week, If I get hot i\'ll start pouring in the profits though..I can honestly say that I have no interest in betting Poly races at this time. I have an interest in the huge payouts but actually taking my money and putting it into a race where I have to hope and pray does not entice me. If that is stopping me with my paltry 1,000 a week I know it has to be stopping the 10,000 a race bettor.
The executives do not care about the horse players IMO. With out us there would be know racing. They say Polly is to protect the horses, which I am all for, because they are the number 1 reason we are all in business. Is there solid evidence it has? As much as I am all for protecting the horses, I protect my bank roll by not betting Polly. I can say for certain that all of my friends that I bet with, do not play Polly for the same reason.
Miff,
Finally have a chance to respond. I\'m not directly criticizing Andy Beyer, I\'m simply pointing out that as one of the most reknown cappers in the business, he seems to have thrown up his hands and scratched his head, and given up on trying to find the solution to winning on artificial. My response was in regard to his article in the DRF where he seems exasperated. NO doubt, his inability to be the expert on the artificial is a helluva blow to his ego. I\'ve never questioned Andy\'s ability to handicap a horse race, his reputation and results speak for themselves. But please remember, being the top dog indefinitely or having things all your own way is not a birthright. At some point, you got to adjust, if you can\'t solve the artificial programs, and you\'re high profile like Mr. Beyer, its pretty unbecoming to whine about it.
As far as the guys who bet a chunk and have given up the \"speed\" angle, that\'s just the way the game is now, they\'ll have to adjust or stay out of the artificials. To me, its a case of allowing the game to pass you by, or at the minimum, it limits your ability to play all the circuits now. Myself, with all respect, I don\'t feel sorry for them. This game is fluid, always has been, many of the old cappers just liked it when they had all the time and most of the knowledge and so the game belonged to them. Not any more.
I\'m in my mid 50\'s, and I told my best male friend, strictly a form handicapper, about 25 years ago that this is a game of drugs, equipment and surface. Either you\'re in the game or you\'re on the outside looking in.
In a nutshell, this is the problem with those struggling to make sense of the artificial surfaces: they continue to want to believe that all artificials are the same. THEY ARE NOT. Poly is a totally separated surface. Cushion and Pro Ride are very similar, and Tapeta is a little similar to Cushion and Pro, but bears no resemblance to Poly. The sooner the cappers decide that Poly is a distinct surface, the more success they\'ll enjoy.
I apologize for the lengthy answer, but I\'ll entertain opposing viewpoints on surfaces, etc. Again, I know virtually nothing about Thorograph methodology. So, I have no intend on insulting any of the guys because much of the time I am scratching my head to figure out what the hell everybody in here is referring to. Laughing here now.
You can bet them offshore, they just don\'t go in the pool. As for why the handles may be down other than poly, since Twin Spires bought BrisBet they do not take action on Keeneland.
smalltimer Wrote:
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> To me, its a case of allowing the game to pass you by,
> or at the minimum, it limits your ability to play all
> the circuits now.
> In a nutshell, this is the problem with those struggling
> to make sense of the artificial surfaces; they continue
> to want to believe that all artificials are the same.
> The sooner the cappers decide that Poly is a distinct
> surface, the more success they\'ll enjoy.
Couple of problems with your statements:
1. What\'s wrong with not playing all of the circuits? I\'ve avoided Maryland racing for years, simply because I consistently found better wagering opportunities elsewhere. I might also point out that each of us likely started with one circuit -- our \"home\" circuit.
You sound like you are trying to appeal to action junkies: learn Poly and the other fakes, or you will only be able to bet 50 races a day, instead of 100!
2. The discovery that the fake surfaces are different from each other might be the Holy Grail for you, but I never for a moment \"decided\" that all of the fake surfaces are the same. None of the fake surfaces I\'ve analyzed act like anything else, or each other. Hell, if the poly at Keeneland last Friday could have just acted like the poly at Keeneland last Saturday, maybe I could have cashed a friggin\' ticket!
3. The idea that doing \"this\" or \"that\", in what we think about poly and how we play it as \"THE\" path to success is silly; skipping races that are undecipherable to the \'capper is just as valid of a method towards achieving overall success.
You are correct about the fluidity of the game. Of course the game continues to change, and of course there is \"continuing education\" to complete, but I already paid the bulk of my \"tuition\" years ago, and I\'ll be damned if I\'m going to pay all over again for a new degree.
Much as I hate to say it, I actually think the Twin Spires situation is why handle is down. I only say this because handle skyrocketed in the first season with polytrack, so I\'m not sure why after four meets racing on it everyone would suddenly decide to stop betting it. If your answer is \"because you can\'t win betting it\", again, why now and not in fall 2006 (when handle was way UP)?
\"Much as I hate to say it, I actually think the Twin Spires situation is why handle is down. I only say this because handle skyrocketed in the first season with polytrack, so I\'m not sure why after four meets racing on it everyone would suddenly decide to stop betting it. If your answer is \"because you can\'t win betting it\", again, why now and not in fall 2006 (when handle was way UP)\"?
jma,
The economy is way off now with uncertainty going forward,stock market down,lay offs, gas prices, and guys getting carried out betting poly is more likely the reasons than Twin Spires.TS could never account for the amount of falloff at the best race meet in the country by a pole.
Mike
http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/horseracing/bal-sp.pimlico18apr18,0,4476354.story
Rick B,
Thanks for the response. When I said, \"it limits your ability to play all the circuits now.\" This is what I meant: For those that have taken Poly off the table, i.e. they won\'t play it, that results in taking almost the entire Cal circuit away, and in Kentucky, other than CD and RD, the Poly surface would limit Turfway and Keeneland. So when I made that comment, I was implying for those who may have made SA, HOL, TP, KEE, and AP a big part of their game, it may no longer exist for them. I give props to those who are smart enough to stay away from a track or circuit that\'s eating their bankroll. For those that played primarily the So Cal circuit, it changes things significantly for them. I agree, we all probably started with out \"home circuit.\" If players \"home circuit\" was So Cal, then they\'re going elsewhere to play.
I wouldn\'t consider myself an action junkie, nor was I appealing to such. I know guys who play 50 races a day and others who don\'t play 50 races a year. But if I\'m going to Vegas for 10 days, I\'m gonna play a lotta races each day. So if that means I need to be on top of Poly, Cushion, Tapeta, Pro Ride, Turf, then I do my research.
I\'m not gonna contest how many races you\'ve analyzed, I\'ve analyzed a couple in my handicapping days also. To be honest, you remind me of my best male friend. HELLUVA handicapper, he just can\'t get a handle on Keeneland and it drives him crazy. Keeneland was one of his \"babies\" for the last 30 years, and now in the last couple years he just can\'t pull the trigger there cause he\'s gun shy. Nothing wrong with that, at least he\'s smart enough to tone down his wagering there.
The idea of \"doing this or doing that\", may be silly to you, because you don\'t understand many of the Poly races, heck, in a typical program at Keeneland I may only play 2-3 races. Some days, I may play 10 races there. I agree, if there\'s nothing appealing in the race for you, the idea of guessing has never been a very good formula at the track.
There\'s no doubt, 95% of the guys that visit the room have paid their dues, done their continuing ed, etc. Isn\'t that the nature of this game? Just when you think you got Keeneland figured out, they change the surface? Or in your case, from one week to the next, the surface and results play completely different. It\'s a tough game, that\'s why Experts in this room put their heads together. I don\'t include myself among those Experts, cause I know almost nothing about Thorograph methodology. I came into the room about 3 days ago, and I\'ve read more intelligent concepts from these guys that I have in the last many years. Do I think they all the all the answers? Of course not, but they keep on looking.
I like a good, respectful disagreement. Trust me, when someone responds with a differing opinion, I read it and respond. I\'m not trying to convince you or anyone of anything. But, can Poly be beaten like a drum? All day long...
Here\'s hoping you have a great weekend.
Take care
Of course handle is down at Laurel it is a simulcast track not a track for live racing where literally you can count the people in the stands on any day except a Saturday on one hand. The administration goes out of it\'s way to terrorize the players who are regulars and in general is the poster child for how not to treat customer. Putting 250K through the place each year doesn\'t mean I should be treated like royalty but I get a warmer welcome from an ex wife!!
consider yourself blessed, even Suffolk treats me better than my ex-wife.
Two different issues. (1) Most rebate shops are not allowed to bet on Keeneland; at least for the past few years. Rebate shops like RGS commingle all their bets with the host track\'s pools. (2) You can probably bet Keeneland with whatever internet bookmaking sites that are left. None of that money goes into the pool so when you make a bet with them the host track and its horsemen receive nothing.
Do you have experimental race shapes available from Friday\'s Keeneland card? Seeing as how 4 routes were won wire to wire, this seems like the kind of bias that the product would be great for. Would you have gotten most/all of these horses on the lead with the race shapes? (No, Im not advocating completely ignoring the TG figures themselves, but this might have been a huge help on a day like today.
Thread,
There were actually 4 wires at Kee, one a 4 1/2 f race, and three route wire to wire winners(the last race winner at 7F was very close up also)
Two of the three routes wires were clearly the speed and the TG race shape must have shown it that way. The feature 9th race winner just crawed to the lead, there was no speed at all and don\'t know what the TG race shape would show.
Mike
Someone may wish to inform the clueless Kee execs that in spite of their statement on the economy etc, the handle at Aqueduct is up app 10% at the same time when Kee is down 17%.
In spite of the pathectic quality of racing in NY compared to Keenland,the players seem to be telling the cluless racing execs what surface they prefer to bet their money on.
Kee, I believe, is a non profit operation so they can stonewall the poly issue since they have financial interest in poly.
Mike
I want to be very careful here.
Word I am hearing is Derby Buzz is down. Hotel rooms are available in Louisville at places you needed to be booked months/years in advance. Same goes with certain tickets. Certain members of certain national media are complaining about the lack of interest they are getting as they are trying to drum up some.
There has to be a correlation to Santa Anita being shut down every other week in Jan. Also these Polytrack Preps being boring and meaningless in the eyes of the gambler and hence the same vibe carries over to the casual fan.
You do not move The Masters to a Seaside Links and expect people to feel the same buzz. You do not take 50-100 years of tradition break it apart and expect people to buy in. Churchill Downs did not do this but they and the Sport of Horse Racing are the ones who will pay the biggest price.
The fans and gamblers who leave may never come back unless big changes are made and made quickly.
Silver Charm Wrote:
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> I want to be very careful here.
>
> Word I am hearing is Derby Buzz is down.
When I found last December that my niece\'s First Holy Communion was on May 3rd, I immediately asked my brother (also a horseplayer): \"What, you didn\'t petition the pastor (yes, he plays the horses too!) to change the date? Doesn\'t he know it\'s Kentucky Derby day?\" We laughed, but I was half serious.
My bro said I didn\'t have to attend, but I told him I wouldn\'t think of missing my niece\'s big day.
Still, privately, I had a twinge of sadness -- as a horseplayer, the Kentucky Derby is my Christmas. I look forward to it all year long. And except for the year Giacoslow won it, it\'s always been a huge blast -- whether I cash a ticket or not.
Maybe I\'m just rationalizing here because I know I won\'t be playing on Derby day, but poster Silver Charm has hit on something here -- there is no sense of excitement this year. I don\'t know that I\'d hang it all on the many fake surfaces and the non-descript, seemingly average horses winning the preps (believe me, I\'d like to), but something is wrong.
I can\'t put my finger on it yet, but when I\'m missing my first Derby in over 20 years and I just don\'t care, that\'s a poster child for lack of buzz, for sure.
We will all be saying the same thing next Breeders Cup Day, that\'s for sure.
Looks like Frank Stronach will keep the rug after it gets strong support from the trainers.
Support grows for synthetic surface
By JAY PRIVMAN
ARCADIA, Calif. - After a series of meetings with trainers and owners at Santa Anita on Sunday, Frank Stronach, whose Magna Entertainment owns the track, said he was leaning toward going with a synthetic surface at the track rather than replacing it with a dirt surface, according to several people at the meetings.
The situation remains in flux, though, according to Ron Charles, Santa Anita\'s president. On Monday, Charles said Santa Anita will do \"a number of tests on the existing track.\"
\"We want to look at the existing surface from every angle so that we have a high confidence level, not only for the Breeders\' Cup, but for the next couple of years,\" Charles said.
Santa Anita is scheduled to play host to the Breeders\' Cup in October, and again in 2009.
During its winter meeting, which closed Sunday, Santa Anita lost 11 days of racing because of the inability of its synthetic main track to drain properly. That surface was manufactured by Cushion Track.
In late January, another synthetic surface company, Pro-Ride, was brought in to try to make the surface viable. There were no cancellations after Pro-Ride reconstituted the Santa Anita main track. Charles said the work done by Pro-Ride\'s Ian Pearse was \"nothing short of amazing.\"
\"To take what he took, and make it useful for racing, to get through the rain and have a surface that was kinder for the horses, and do all that in four days - he saved the meeting,\" Charles said.
Still, Charles added, \"We want to see what we can improve upon, and do some environmental tests.\"
Charles said the tests are designed to make sure the surface is still draining properly, and to look at the asphalt base.
There also were complaints from the gate crew during the meet that the synthetic surface gave off a strong odor at times, a concern trainer Bruce Headley said he brought up at the meeting.
\"If everything\'s fine, we\'ll know which way we want to go,\" Charles said.
Charles has been in favor of synthetic surfaces, while Stronach has preferred dirt surfaces. Trainers who attended a closed-door meeting with Stronach on Sunday said Stronach initially seemed desirous of returning to a dirt surface, but was respectful of the wishes of the trainers, the majority of whom prefer a synthetic surface.
\"He wanted to hear what the trainers thought about the synthetic tracks,\" trainer Ed Moger Jr. said of Stronach. \"A lot of the trainers were strongly in favor of the synthetic. He seemed very concerned. He wants to do what\'s best. I\'m sure Mr. Stronach probably has a bad taste in his mouth over synthetics.\"
\"Most favor the way it is now, but some would like to return to dirt,\" trainer David Hofmans said. \"It was a good, open exchange. I\'m 100 percent in favor of synthetics. I think it\'s a godsend to the industry.\" - additional reporting by Steve Andersen
miff Wrote:
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> Looks like Frank Stronach will keep the rug after
> it gets strong support from the trainers.
> There also were complaints from the gate crew
> during the meet that the synthetic surface gave
> off a strong odor at times, a concern trainer
> Bruce Headley said he brought up at the meeting.
No Comment.
I would like to see the 2008 BC be run over the synthetic surface.
I would be interested to see if the trainers and owners of runners who have won
the major DIRT races during the season ship to SA for the synthetic BC.
I would be interested to see how the bettors would support a synthetic BC:
Handle up? Handle down? Handle unaffected?
Alan Shuback of DRF has already raised the concern that Euro trainers (even
those with top grass horses) might not turn out in large numbers at SA.
(Climate? Longer ship?)
Which all raises one interesting question in my mind: Which track will have the
vision and the audacity and the Brilliance! to schedule a series of high purse,
graded DIRT races to be run at about the same time as the synthetic BC is to be
run?
Imagine if Belmont/ Aqueduct or Churchill took all of their major graded Fall
races (Dirt and Turf) and ran them on one weekend sometime around BC time?
Ka-ching?
Bee,
The results after the races of the Synth BC at Santa will be predictable. The winners will laud the surface as the savior of the game, the losers will yell that the surface is garbage.
Because it\'s the BC,even synt/poly haters will gamble though maybe not as heavily as they would on dirt.
Mike
Let me climb up on my \"high horse\" for a moment. THis is a classic example of the trainers and horsemen having no regard for the customer. sorry guys, but the customers for horse racing are not just the owners, it is the gambling public. Without us, there is no horse racing revenue. Not sure horse racing survives here under the middle east conditions where they race for pride and glory and no gambling to fund the sport.
The majority of gamblers, as pointed out by the handle or lack thereof, think synthetics are for the birds. The \"safety\" issue, while sounding very politically correct, doesn\'t seem to have statistically proven itself out.
This comment from Hofmans reflecting many trainers reminds me of Mullins comments about the stupid gamblers out there. We need to do what what any good consumer does in this situation, stay away in droves from betting on these garbage surfaces. If they won\'t adjust their thinking to reflect the demand of their customers, we need to make them pay the price. There are still plenty of dirt tracks out there to bet. Bet those tracks.
I just find it unfathomable that we are holding two consecutive breeders cups in a row at Santa Anita. Has to be one of the worst decisions, in a long line of bad decisions, by the racing industry.
I, for one, like guessing at which owners are \"juicing\" their horses, than guessing at which horses will run on poly.
Shit, at least the juicers usually follow a pattern. Expect a move up when Dutrow, Levine or Mullins claims a horse.
Anybody really know which horses are going to move up on poly?
\"Anybody really know which horses are going to move up on poly?\"
The ones I hate. ;-)
Jim,
You have touched on the heart of the racing problem from a players perspective. The customer, i.e gamblers,have no platform or organization to speak from in unity. An attempt to organize players was made and basically failed.Players are either casual about their gripes or ambivolent. Whales are either silent, under the radar or too busy to pass up a perceived opportunity.
The guy at NTRA, Walthrop(or something)sounds like an empty suit.In NY, a group of about 18 players(app $65 million annual handle) approached Bill Nader SVP at Nyra a few years ago with concerns. Bill was very attentive and receptive and things began to go forward until he left and the NYRA franchise mess ensued.
Until the players, ahem gamblers, are somewhat united and represented by a credible spokesman,clueless racetrack execs and trainers will ignore the occasional isolated outburst.Said Richard Mandella recently something like, \"just because people bet on these races we have to hear about the synth surface being too slow or this or that\" Could Richard Mandella be any more clueless. Pssst Richard, pipe down the gamblers may not bet any more and you won\'t have a job. F-king idiot!
Mike
miff Wrote:
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> The guy at NTRA, Walthrop(or something)sounds like
> an empty suit.
I am not sure that you spelled his name right, but you accurately described
his manner of dress. And the empty suit is probably accompanied by a clip-
on tie.
Here is a man who has stated that he wants to attract young people to the game.
Young people who probably are working their asses off to repay student loans,
if they are lucky enough to have any jobs at all.
So while we are recruiting these \"millenials\", lets forget all about the 50-60
somethings who have both leisure time and disposable income.
A large part of the problem is that some of the people with powerful voices--
Steve Crist and Jerry Brown ie-- would suffer business losses if they attacked
the Racing establishment. A \"boycott\" or \"buycott\" would similarly not be good
for the business of DRF or TG.
The quality of Racing continues to decrease, especially in NY and Cal. But there
are so many new toys for gamblers-- handicapping contests, internet wagering,
new multiple race gimmicks,rebates, dime supers, etc, that gamblers are almost
distracted from the poor quality of racing.
The gate guys were mask at the end of the meet. Nothing will change their mind like a big fat law suit! That stuff can\'t be healthy to ingest all day, for human or horse. It is just a matter of time boys. It will go the way of lead paint and asbestos.
http://www.ntra.com/
$25 and you can join
Richie-- I think things are going to happen that may change your views about some of the individuals in this business. Having gone back and forth with Waldrop extensively about the drug issue, I think he does have a clue, but as I said to him, he\'s in a bad spot-- high visibility without the power to enforce change.
I would not be surprised if the Horseplayers Coalition announced today was Waldrop\'s baby. We\'ll see where that goes. He has some ideas about getting the NTRA involved in the drug situation that might dovetail nicely with the coalition, and/or with some ideas of mine.
As for me, various things (including but not limited to new products and branding and expanding this company) have caused me not to go forward with the boycott idea, not because it would hurt my business (the internet has made it so the tracks can\'t really hurt me, they need me more than I need them). I\'m still interested in collective coercion, after I get done with various projects, and see what the NTRA and specific other institutions do, I\'m going to look at it. I wonder if the powers-that-be realize what a Pandoras Box this coalition is. Join it, guys.
Waldrip not only empty suit
Jerry,
You are to be commended for your passion about cleaning up the sport and I believe that you are correct that TG is immune from any retribution. However you and I both know that Milkshakes are not the most serious drug violation in the sport at the present time.
According to the NTRA site; the Coalation will:
\"seek legislative and regulatory solutions to tax and business issues\"
\"send grass roots communications to members of Congress using STYLIZED
MESSAGE POINTS\"
What the f**K is a stylized message point?
One more gutless organization will not cure what ails racing today.Beware if you want the guvment to take over......
What is the purpose of NTRA now?
What is the purpose of the Racing Authorities in Cali, Kentucky and New York now.
Jeff Mullins and Doug O\"Neil have pretty much told authorities to kiss their ass out West and looks as if Biancobra has done the same in Bluegrass country.
If Steve Crist is so money hungry that his only concern for this sport is his take on his Pic 6\"s then he is no friend.
TGJB,
Couple of ideas here.
Anytime a person or a group of people want to try to get their point across, its best to have a plan, or consider suggestions.
The Coalition at least represents a start, and may really impact the situation.
For someone who wants to take the time for a project, I would offer the following suggestion:
Look at the Keeneland Result Charts from last Sunday, 4-20-08. I\'ll give you one example of how horseplayers can help make their own case.
7f poly race, the mutuel pool was $ 185K, with an additional $ 252K in exotics, totally @ $ 430K.
Turf race at Keeneland, mutuel pool $ 457K, with $ 673K in exotics. That\'s say a little something there, right?
I\'m not gonna take the time and look at what KEE keeps in the straight action vs. the exotics, so I\'m just using some easy numbers here.
Say 18% on the straight action and 23% on the exotics.
(Don\'t jump my case here, I\'m just illustrating).
In the 7f poly race, the track \"keeps\" say $ 93K. (185K X 18%)+ 252K X .23%) =
@ $ 93,000.00 for the track.
The turf race, the track \"keeps\" $ 237K. (457K X 18%) + ( 673K X 23%) =
@ $ 237,000 for the track.
Two different races at the same track on different surfaces and the turf exceeds the poly race handle/interest by...how much? A bunch.
Do you suppose this is true at Santa Anita also? Take a peek at their mutuels and see what you find.
I know, I intermingled the P3 pool. I know there are other costs associated with each of the races, but my point being..why help the track generate large profits in the turf races, when so many gamblers want the artificial to go away?
Now I know guys are gonna say, what about the Bluegrass and the $ 1M plus handle? I know that. Gamblers across the country are still gonna play that big race, so are virtually all the fans at the other tracks around the country.
As I type this, I know this is ripe for contradiction or criticism, but I\'m throwing it out to at another way of looking at things.
If you don\'t like Joe Blow\'s Supermarket, you don\'t have to shop there. If you want to impact their cash register, you go in, pick the cherries, ad items, all their loss leaders and hit the checkstand. It works for your wallet and in a small way impacts their bottom line.
That\'s it. A realistic, methodical plan on how to impact the bottom lines of racetracks seems the logical way to go. If Keeneland is non-profit, as many tracks are, it still impacts their purse structure, their ability to bring in more and bigger stables. I know lesser quality of horses. I know, almost without exception, the powers-that-be, could care less about the gambler, I don\'t need a lecture on that aspect. Etc. etc, etc.
Have at it Chuckles.
Smalltimer,
Most rebate shops, do not take Keeneland. Most, if not all major players use rebate shops. Keeneland is not seeing any of that cash. I have been with RGS for almost 7 years, in that time keeneland has never been offered. Just something for thought.