Will work two more times before shipping 4/28 to CD.
Does anybody else find this very bizarre?
Move up trainer staying in friendly confines before shipping in.
Not knowing how this horse will handle CD is a huge negative in my book.
Yah,
But there will be fewer prying eyes.
Sandreadis Wrote:
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> Will work two more times before shipping 4/28 to
> CD.
> Does anybody else find this very bizarre?
> Move up trainer staying in friendly confines
> before shipping in.
> Not knowing how this horse will handle CD is a
> huge negative in my book.
i haven\'t noticed this crop of 3 yo\'s handling those negative numbers particularly well . even though big browns big effort came later in the season than it did for others like war pass and pyro , it still came early on in his campaign ...
Lots of horses went into last year\'s Derby without a work at CD. Most of the Pletcher contingent prepped at Keeneland. Tiago and a couple of other Californians had their last works before shipping in. Tagg seems like he consistently stays at Belmont as long as possible.
If you think of the Derby as just another stakes race, shipping in right before the race is not uncommon. There\'s also the argument that the surface you race on in the Derby often bears little resemblance to the one you train over during the week.
A work over the track might be informative to handicappers, but it\'s hard to imagine someone scratching an experienced dirt runner out of the Derby because they don\'t think their horse handled the surface in a work.
they should save big brown for the belmont stakes.. i mean lets look at history.. not only is there a LARGE percent chance for this horse to bounce but IF he doesnt and wins the derby..how can he possibly win the triple crown (something that hasnt happened in many years) off short rest?!?!?! imo itll be a guaranteed win at belmont sinced he will have plenty of rest. i mean who would give up on an opportunity of $600,000?! that would be the management decision of the last 3 decades! plus he will be all good to go for the summer and breeders cup CLASSIC! this phony false hopes for the triple crown has to stop! the best horse of all time (ghostzapper) didnt even run in any of the triple crown races and his breeding fees were $250,000 the first year! lets use some brain here dutrow/owners! and swig some of that stoli voooodka while you remain patient!
If this horse wins the Derby, $600,000 is chump change. Nobody pays large stud fees because a horse won the Belmont. Honestly, off the top of your head, can you tell me who won the last 10 Belmonts let alone the last 5??
He will have had 5 weeks rest, enough to offset a bounce. JB\'s main point has been that these huge efforts so early in a career hurt horses no matter how you coddle them later. If his premise is correct, the damage is already done.
Bit,
Nobody is suggesting scratching a horse based on a work, but wouldn\'t it be better for a horse to familiarize itself to the surface, paddock, surroundings, etc... going into such a big race?? Also, isn\'t is presumptuous to assume that the track will be scraped or souped up on Derby Day?? Is this a fact, or just opinion?
your missing the point p dub! whats so great about winning the roses? history?! i mean come on now.. its a business and the solid point im trying to make is that if they time this horse correctly he can win races such as the grade 1 belmont the grade 1 haskell and the grade 1 breeders cup classic. and when running in those races, he will be in top condition and form with a great chance to win all of them! if this horse bounces off the walls on derby day it can ruin his career! look what happened to sinister minister, ballamy road, and all these other horses that bounced off the walls cause the owner/trainers decided that this was such an important race. why chance that?! that would be horrible! give me one horse that bounced off the walls in the derby as a 3 year old to come back into top condition and be able to compete in grade 1 races?
belveondarockz Wrote:
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> give me one horse that bounced off the walls in the derby as a
> 3 year old to come back into top condition and be
> able to compete in grade 1 races?
Point Given
Big Brown has bad feet, reportedly some ankle problems. Combined with the huge figure, some don\'t think he\'ll last the year let alone win the races you think he can.
and running him in the derby is even a worse idea then if he has all those problems. they just solve those problems and aim for the sky not for false dreams.
P-Dub Wrote:
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> belveondarockz Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > give me one horse that bounced off the walls in
> the derby as a
> > 3 year old to come back into top condition and
> be
> > able to compete in grade 1 races?
>
> Point Given
well its kinda ironic that you say that.. because the ONLY example you can give me for happens to be a horse that bounced off a slop effort going into the derby and according to you and your opinion about war pass you said:
\"If you\'re that sold on that slop number, then hope for rain on May 3. Otherwise, as has been pointed out many times, slop numbers aren\'t as reliable relative to overall ability. Many horses throw out huge slop numbers that aren\'t duplicated over a fast strip. \" u see any coincidence in this?
big brown donkey and company should wait this out! and make sure hes nice and ready to run %100... the worlds worst situation in anyone is wasted talent! plus war pass should smoke these guys in a few weeks imo! =D
Hansel bounced off a big #, lost the Derby,rebounded and dominated in the Preakness. Any trainer of a horse who can win the derby has to run him unless he\'s showing physical disability leading up to the race. The only horse I can think of who followed the advice you are giving was AP Indy. If the theory is correct on Big Brown he will need a lot longer than waiting for the Belmont. Look at Talkin Man & Bandini. Talkin Man actually got in one more race, the Wood, before caving from the Gotham #. Given the choice, no horseman in his right mind prefers a Belmont win to a Kentucky Derby win-too much tradition involved.
The Belmont is a more Traditional Race than the Derby and is the true Classic Test of a Champion. Granting the last two renewals were pitiful.
2007-Rags to Riches
2006-Jazil
2005-Afleet Alex
2004-Birdstone
2003-Empire Maker
2002-Sarava
2001-Point Given
2000-Commendable
1999-Lemon Drop Kid
1998-Victory Gallop
1997-Touch Gold
P-Dub Wrote:
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> If this horse wins the Derby, $600,000 is chump
> change. Nobody pays large stud fees because a
> horse won the Belmont. Honestly, off the top of
> your head, can you tell me who won the last 10
> Belmonts let alone the last 5??
>
> He will have had 5 weeks rest, enough to offset a
> bounce. JB\'s main point has been that these huge
> efforts so early in a career hurt horses no matter
> how you coddle them later. If his premise is
> correct, the damage is already done.
>
> Bit,
> Nobody is suggesting scratching a horse based on a
> work, but wouldn\'t it be better for a horse to
> familiarize itself to the surface, paddock,
> surroundings, etc... going into such a big race??
> Also, isn\'t is presumptuous to assume that the
> track will be scraped or souped up on Derby Day??
> Is this a fact, or just opinion?
thats right!
Bit, Keeneland is a 1 hour van ride in the same climate zone.
South Fla. is 1000 miles on a plane in a totally different climate.
JB always talks about acclimation with shippers. I\'m sure it is much easier shipping South to North but it still could be an issue. The humidity can be brutal.
Does anyone know how many Derby winners have won w/out a work at CD?
Out of the last 5 derby winners Funny Cide and Giacomo didn\'t work at Churchill.
Street Sense,Barbaro and Smarty did.
Note though that all 5 of them posted a huge work prior to the Derby (with Street Sense\'s work coming in his next to last Derby work and the other 4 in their last works before the race). We need to see a big work from Big Brown down at Palm Meadows prior to the Derby or he can be thrown out on that reason alone. Hard Spun also had that same kind of blowout work before his big effort last year. It\'s a sign that the horse is fit and that they are doing well, it\'s a must
Sandreadis -
I\'m not arguing that Dutrow\'s decision is a good one. I haven\'t a clue. I\'m just saying that it\'s an issue that different trainers have approached differently.
As for Dutrow, I can\'t rule out that (as your initial post hinted) staying away from regulatory eyes for as long as possible is a consideration. But he may also want to keep the horse out of the Derby hubbub for as long as possible and keep the horse working over a surface that has been allowing its feet to improve. Dutrow may think that a gallop or two over the track will suffice to get Big Brown acclimated to his new surroundings.
Handicappers probably stand to benefit more from seeing one work over the track than the trainer does. The trainer is pretty much out of options at that point.
Well, from Dutrow\'s comments, he\'s not going to go for a big work. I think he believes BB has the talent already to win, and just wants to keep him healthy and fresh.
Since you only asked for one,I say Snow Chief.
Tricky Dick is looking for two more 1:00 flat five pole works. Most of his works are right in that ballpark with an additional furlong gallop out. Don\'t expect that to change.
ajkreider Wrote:
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> Well, from Dutrow\'s comments, he\'s not going to go
> for a big work. I think he believes BB has the
> talent already to win, and just wants to keep him
> healthy and fresh.
two more work outs and how many since his last race ? imo 4 or more somehow just doesn\'t add up - big browns not returning from a lay-off ! maybe they\'re looking for something and if there is indeed an ankle issue , perhaps it\'s being evaluated . if they\'re not trying to fatten him up , maybe they should cut him loose next time and let him really blow-out , then see what he does on his own after that in another work before the derby ...
I don\'t see any evidence in BRB\'s past works that he is a \"blow out\" horse. His March 25th workout was a little hot, but I think we need to defer to Tricky Dick in how he intends to bring his horse to the Derby. From my perspective, I don\'t want him getting too headstrong in the Derby and going right for the lead and I don\'t think he will. The works appear to be rateable works and I\'m sure the workout\'s are strategic and BRB per usual is laying off Diamond Stripes or perhaps his post Dubai Cup surrogate and taking measure of his workmate down the lane. He\'s a rateable horse and the works he\'s throwing represent that.
I think folks are looking at the Florida Derby Gate Blast and figuring he will employ the same tactic in the Kentucky Derby. I don\'t think so. It appears, at least to me, that Post 12 at Hallandale is the \"dead zone\" and Dutrow knew it. His horse had no graded earnings coming into the Florida Derby and had to win or finish second to make the field, so a gate bust was mandatory. I really think it is as simple as that.
marcus Wrote:
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> two more work outs and how many since his last
> race ? imo 4 or more somehow just doesn\'t add up -
> big browns not returning from a lay-off ! maybe
> they\'re looking for something and if there is
> indeed an ankle issue , perhaps it\'s being
> evaluated . if they\'re not trying to fatten him up
> , maybe they should cut him loose next time and
> let him really blow-out , then see what he does on
> his own after that in another work before the
> derby ...
getting the horse to rate and adding conditioning with the extra furlong gallop makes a lot sense imo . i agree with your take on the fla derby . if sufficient pace is there to set up for a 2nd and 3rd wave of closers , it\'s also got to help the chances as well for someone who rates smartly and gets a good trip ...
While I agree with most of this analysis, it seems to me works up to 5 furlongs are primarily for conditioning, not for teaching rating. Traditionally, trainers will use a 6 furlong or longer work with a hot quarter mile finish to get a horse used to finishing.
If Dutrow preps this horse up to the race off a series of 5 furlong works, he\'s just trying to maintain condition. It\'s not a tipoff in any sense of how he plans to run the race.
I ran into a horse owner at Gulfstream this week who is a backstretch guy of some substance. He told me the horse has a knee in addition to an ankle and hoof issue. Maybe, maybe not.
Problem with this is that no horse in very recent histroy has won the Derby without a blowout work leading up to the race.
Street Sense\'s work two out was a monster and we know we had no trouble hanging back early. Same with Barbaro the year before (last work) and Giacomo the year before that (last work). Same with Smarty and War Emblem.
Given how lightly raced horses are today compared to 15 years ago, I think only recent history is relevant here.
You need the blowout work to ensure you have the fitness/foundation which is all the more important in the case of a lightly raced horse with a pedigree that doesn\'t suggest 1 1/4.
I think what Stutts seems to be doing with Smooth Air is more what\'s necessary as oppossed to babying a horse into the race which is what Dutrow is doing.
Turst me, I like Dutrow, he trains a horse that I own, it\'s just that I don\'t think you can train a horse so lightly into a situation that they have never been in before and expect the horse to perform well.
Another work for BB today. More of the same: 5F in 1:00.6 or something. Looks like he\'s sticking to the plan.
And since it\'s been less than a week since his last work, I think it\'s safe to say that at least Dutrow isn\'t concerned about injury.
Looks like BB had another nice scheduled work out.
This is interesting, from DRF.com
QuoteOriginally the colt\'s final Florida work was to have come at Palm Meadows on April 28, just hours before he is scheduled to board a flight for Louisville. Instead, Dutrow has penciled that breeze in four days earlier, a change that will allow him to give Big Brown a three-furlong blowout over the Churchill Downs strip on Thursday of Derby week.
I guess there will be a blowout after all!
Theres a spine problem too. Hes medicated and acupunctured. They bring him from Palm Meadows over to Hallandale every other morning for a walk about and some backstretch coffee. Sharp eyes can pick it out those days.
alm Wrote:
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> While I agree with most of this analysis, it seems
> to me works up to 5 furlongs are primarily for
> conditioning, not for teaching rating.
> Traditionally, trainers will use a 6 furlong or
> longer work with a hot quarter mile finish to get
> a horse used to finishing.
>
> If Dutrow preps this horse up to the race off a
> series of 5 furlong works, he\'s just trying to
> maintain condition. It\'s not a tipoff in any
> sense of how he plans to run the race.
>
> I ran into a horse owner at Gulfstream this week
> who is a backstretch guy of some substance. He
> told me the horse has a knee in addition to an
> ankle and hoof issue. Maybe, maybe not.