I hate this race.
The favorite looks vulnerable at Even Money and I can\'t distill enough facts to shoot accurately at him.
I\'ll take some Momba action with a side of Big Truck without real insight or conviction.
This thing could come in balloons but who?
Chuckles_the_Clown2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I hate this race.
>
> The favorite looks vulnerable at Even Money and I
> can\'t distill enough facts to shoot accurately at
> him.
>
> I\'ll take some Momba action with a side of Big
> Truck without real insight or conviction.
>
> This thing could come in balloons but who?
Ok, thats enough of this Pyro nonsense.
Chuckles_the_Clown2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuckles_the_Clown2 Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > I hate this race.
> >
> > The favorite looks vulnerable at Even Money and
> I
> > can\'t distill enough facts to shoot accurately
> at
> > him.
> >
> > I\'ll take some Momba action with a side of Big
> > Truck without real insight or conviction.
> >
> > This thing could come in balloons but who?
>
> Ok, thats enough of this Pyro nonsense.
but ctc, was this result good or bad for Pyro haters? what\'s BB now? 5/2?
anyway, good call against the even money fave, and with the winner.
I agree with that analysis Michael. I think this race cost anyone hoping to cash on Pyro\'s Derby Flop dearly. Street Sense didn\'t get beat a pole in his Bluegrass.
And I agree that BJB is now the likely Derby favorite, depending of course on the Ark and Lexington results.
Thanx on the cash. It wasn\'t very scientific. I merely took what I believed to be the best Poly Past Performance horse and the Best Poly Workout Horse, coupled with a conviction that Pyro was vastly overrated. I cashed the race at 6-1. Its winning, but Pyro was good for Golden Balloons with more insight on dirt. I had to bet the Bluegrass because I knew intuitively that Pyro would not go to the Derby with more stature.
Congrats as well. Hope you caught the exotics. They were juicy.
Michael D. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuckles_the_Clown2 Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Chuckles_the_Clown2 Wrote:
> >
> --------------------------------------------------
>
> > -----
> > > I hate this race.
> > >
> > > The favorite looks vulnerable at Even Money
> and
> > I
> > > can\'t distill enough facts to shoot
> accurately
> > at
> > > him.
> > >
> > > I\'ll take some Momba action with a side of
> Big
> > > Truck without real insight or conviction.
> > >
> > > This thing could come in balloons but who?
> >
> > Ok, thats enough of this Pyro nonsense.
>
>
> but ctc, was this result good or bad for Pyro
> haters? what\'s BB now? 5/2?
>
> anyway, good call against the even money fave, and
> with the winner.
The only thing the Ark Derby has to do with the Ky Derby is who runs first or second because they get in.
Otherwise horses like Monba and Cowboy Cal have just taken two spots from others with perhaps a chance.
I\'m looking for Blackberry Road to close late for a big piece and maybe the whole enchilada
i really hate the poly track! imo this is a non effort and many horses in here can be excused for the performance they had in it today especially with those slow fractions!
After that result at Ark this is now the Poly Track Derby being run on dirt.
Silver, I think what the Ark demonstrated is that the horses that finished close to Pyro at the Fair Grounds, really were not very good horses. My Pal Charlie, Blackberry Road. These type will take turns beating each other.
That said Stevil faired better at Keeneland than the Fair Grounds, but that could be at least partially attributable to a \"grassy\" pedigree:
http://www.pedigreequery.com/stevil
Z Fortune and Visionaire appear to be on the improve to me as well.
Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> After that result at Ark this is now the Poly
> Track Derby being run on dirt.
Draw a line through this one...it used to be the Blue Grass was a nice setup race for the Derby, now it\'s a teardown...it\'s worthless....or it\'s a workout...it certainly sharpened Street Sense for last year\'s Derby...maybe this is all Pyro (a dirt horse) needed.
The crack about SS not losing the Blue Grass by a pole is irrelevant. He did not run his race...and Pyro did not pick up his feet. His result was too bad to be credible.
alm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Draw a line through this one
fine. but a line after the race is no good.
we had Dominican last year, and Monba this year.
the surface is as hard on speed as it used to be on closers, and some just don\'t take to it. bet accordingly.
Theres a little more going on here than meets the eye alm. A top class horse guts it out.
And though I respect your opinion, I\'m sorry if you\'re vested in Pyro.
My wager against him had more to do with speed than Poly.
alm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Draw a line through this one...it used to be the
> Blue Grass was a nice setup race for the Derby,
> now it\'s a teardown...it\'s worthless....or it\'s a
> workout...it certainly sharpened Street Sense for
> last year\'s Derby...maybe this is all Pyro (a dirt
> horse) needed.
>
> The crack about SS not losing the Blue Grass by a
> pole is irrelevant. He did not run his race...and
> Pyro did not pick up his feet. His result was too
> bad to be credible.
i didnt have dominican.......but remember some did.
As far as I\'m concerned, Pyro\'s performance caused the exact problem for Steven Asmussen I\'ve been talking about all along in my criticism of using Poly as the final prep for a Derby horse.
Had the horse run a mediocre 3rd or 4th, it would be easy to dismiss the performance as related to Poly and assume the effort did him some good. However, Pyro ran so dismally, it\'s not quite so easy to dismiss it. How do we really know if it was Poly or whether this horse has some kind of problem? He was atrocious. Furthermore, even if you do dismiss it, SA has no idea at all what the horse got out of the race (if anything) which is going to make it more difficut to bring him to the Derby at his peak.
I thought Pyros end of race fade from 8th to 10th on that stuff was a good indicator of how he\'ll handle the last quarter in a real horse race.
Conceding that Poly is a freak surface, the Bluegrass was Pyro\'s first attempt at 9 full poles over effort demanding ground and it clearly didn\'t go well.
I guess the really interesting thing will be his Derby off odds. If he goes off at 10-1 there, maybe some will be influenced to take the plunge and ignore the slow figures and last prep. However, I don\'t see Pyro in the 4-1 range any longer thats for certain. Regardless of what he got out of the Bluegrass, if you\'re a believer, I think you\'re likely to get good odds.
I thought it telling in regard to which horse Steve put the saddle on.
I\'m not gonna be able to sleep tonight. I\'m getting very excited now.
fkach Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> As far as I\'m concerned, Pyro\'s performance caused
> the exact problem for Steven Asmussen I\'ve been
> talking about all along in my criticism of using
> Poly as the final prep for a Derby horse.
>
> Had the horse run a mediocre 3rd or 4th, it would
> be easy to dismiss the performance as related to
> Poly and assume the effort did him some good.
> However, Pyro ran so dismally, it\'s not quite so
> easy to dismiss it. How do we really know if it
> was Poly or whether this horse has some kind of
> problem? He was atrocious. Furthermore, even if
> you do dismiss it, SA has no idea at all what the
> horse got out of the race (if anything) which is
> going to make it more difficut to bring him to the
> Derby at his peak.
Pyro didn\'t have the confirmation to run over Poly and Asmussen knew it. The horse hadn\'t worked well over the surface any of the times my partner saw him and he came into the paddock wearing some expanded form of front shoes (laden with acrylic) in an attempt to give him a bigger foot and more traction.
With his little deer feet he is unlikely to run much better at CD than he did at KEE, unless it comes up wet Derby Day. FWIW, Zito didn\'t think Coal Coal Man would handle the surface either.
Ian Meyers Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Pyro didn\'t have the confirmation to run over Poly
> and Asmussen knew it. The horse hadn\'t worked
> well over the surface any of the times my partner
> saw him and he came into the paddock wearing some
> expanded form of front shoes (laden with acrylic)
> in an attempt to give him a bigger foot and more
> traction.
>
> With his little deer feet he is unlikely to run
> much better at CD than he did at KEE, unless it
> comes up wet Derby Day. FWIW, Zito didn\'t think
> Coal Coal Man would handle the surface either.
This is quite an interesting observation, one that I intend to check into. Kodiak Kowboy also is wearing some kind of funky shoes that sound like what you describe, and he ran inexplicably bad last Sunday at Keeneland. Now Pyro... Hmmm...
Pyro, making his first start on Polytrack, raced near the back of the pack and never fired, finishing 11 1/2 lengths behind Monba. Trainer Steve Asmussen, watching from Arkansas, said he was going to attribute the poor performance to the new surface. He said he will send Pyro to the Derby with confidence. Pyro was coming off back-to-back wins in the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby.
I like what you said regarding Pyro,however I really would have liked to hear
what bridgmohan had to say.He\'s really the authority on how the horse handled the surface.
Does anyone know how to get hoof size info on all the derby contenders? I have heard that a large hoof size makes all the difference at CD when it is dry. If I recall correctly, Barbaro was the only horse in the derby that year with hooves that measured \"A\" (largest hoof size is A+), but the person who posted hoof data that year has not posted anything since. Not saying you should base your entire play on this, but it may make it easy to throw out a horse like Pyro.
The derby insanity is beginning, hoof size matters, BRILLIANT!
Mike
Flighted Iron Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I like what you said regarding Pyro,however I
> really would have liked to hear
> what bridgmohan had to say.He\'s really the
> authority on how the horse handled the surface.
Unlike Asmussen who indicated he could see him \"spinning his wheels\" in the first turn as well as on the backside, the rider said only that he had the horse in good position turning for home but when he asked him, he had nothing.
LOL...maybe it is the george t stagg bourbon, hilarious
I said it before on the Pace Advantage board a week ago. I posted it this morning from our clocker and posted real-time info from the paddock. You can check it out there. He still has a solid line he just doesn\'t like poly and might not like CD. Run him in the Preakness and he probably goes forward and wins.
my hand to god, my last post before the derby, I will not post again, pyro-mania, big f-uckster, losers, i am lovin that air
Ian,
I saw your post on the PA board a few days ago. I agree that it\'s very likely the horse didn\'t like Poly and otherwise looks fine, but I still can\'t see how anyone could consider this move by Steve A a good one. I\'ve been saying this for months.
At least last year, Carl Nafzger knew he would get a solid effort into Street Sense and set him up perfectly for the Derby. SS had already run well on the surface (even if he preferred dirt). This was Pyro\'s first attempt on it. Given that Pyro didn\'t do any running today, if the idea was to get \"something out of the race\" it was a failure.
I also think it\'s IMPOSSIBLE to be 100% sure the performance was all related to Poly. There is always a risk that this horse\'s form has changed for the worse since his last race and it was masked by his dislike for Poly. Neither you, I, or SA can be certain (even if the probability is only 5%).
If there are some conditioning and safety benefits to preparing on Poly/artificial surfaces, I think it\'s probably a great idea to train over it. But if the idea is to win the Derby, IMO it can\'t be a good idea to run exclusively on artificial surfaces and not have any idea how your horse handles dirt or to run him for the first time on it in his final prep race. All you are doing is clouding the horse\'s form and making the training task more difficult (including the decision of whether he even belongs). For all we know, the best dirt horse in America isn\'t even coming to the Derby because he didn\'t show enough in all his artifical surface races out in CA and the trainer still doesn\'t know what he has.
If I owned horses of Derby quality there would a long list of trainers I would never even consider (regardless of their other talents) based on the way they chose to prepare for the Derby. That would continue to be true even if they finish 1 through 4 in the race. IMO, there are no pluses to less information and certainty about your horse, and any potential benefits from artificial surfaces can be gained via training on the stuff.
Follow this running comedy with comparison to Equibase. It\'s hilarious.
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=45865&page=1&pp=15
http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/KEE041208USA.html
Ian,
If you\'re \"Premier Turf Club\" from Pace Advantage, you ought to be ashamed of yourself.
You called more numbers and spread more bets than Michael Jordan wagering on roulette. When it started and continued bad, you threw in additional combinations the \"Paddock Guy\" was suggesting. (None of which clicked either.)
You did mention 3 of the 4 in the Bluegrass, but certainly not in order of any preference. Crediting a box, (as was your routine), you certainly did not mention Kentucky Bear, (the third place horse), which would be essential to \"Counting\" significant money in that race.
That was a 20,000 dollar losing day. Was glad to have you in the pools.
Keep coming back. Don\'t give up. It will get better, I swear.
Ian Meyers Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Pyro didn\'t have the confirmation to run over Poly
> and Asmussen knew it. The horse hadn\'t worked
> well over the surface any of the times my partner
> saw him and he came into the paddock wearing some
> expanded form of front shoes (laden with acrylic)
> in an attempt to give him a bigger foot and more
> traction.
>
> With his little deer feet he is unlikely to run
> much better at CD than he did at KEE, unless it
> comes up wet Derby Day. FWIW, Zito didn\'t think
> Coal Coal Man would handle the surface either.
\"He still has a solid line he just doesn\'t like poly and might not like CD. Run him in the Preakness and he probably goes forward and wins poly and might not like CD\".
Ian,
Pyro broke his maiden at CD,why won\'t he like it.
Mike
Miff,
He\'s got a small foot about a 2 or 2 1/2 on a scale of 1 to 5 where 3 is average. The typical stakes winners at CD have a hoof size of 3 1/2 or greater. IMHO, just because he won a maiden race race going 6F at 2 doesn\'t mean he can compete in this class going a distance of ground at 3. He has struggled over poly throughout his career. While this was his first race on the surface, he has had a number of works over it, none of which were very good. While CD\'s main and poly aren\'t the same they both seem to favor big footed horses, poly more so than CD.
Just a hunch on my part but I will need to take a stand because I think Pyro is going to get a lot of wise guy money, \"he ran great before and now he\'s back on dirt.\"
The morning clocker report had Kentucky Bear. Look at the attachment. the comment said:
Pyro has never trained well over poly and is a big underlay. We believe they're just looking to leg him up for the Derby. Both Pletcher horses, Cowboy Cal and Monba have trained brilliantly and should run well, as should Halo Najib. We've gotten a big push on Kentucky Bear who bled through Lasix in Florida. His breeding says miler but he could make for a gigantic super if he hits the board.
The real-time paddock report said:
Asmussen barn has done what they can for Pyro spreading his shoes in front and filling in with acrylic to give him a bigger foot, but he\'s still smaller than average and very small behind where they\'ve done nothing. We\'ll take a shot against him using both Pletcher horses, Cowboy Cal and Monba and Halo Najib, all of whom looked fit and dappled. Zito\'s other horse Stevil is an interesting longshot in here.
Cool Coal Man, Big Truck and Visionaire look anti-poly physically. Smallish and/or very flat feet.
We said toss Pyro, Coal Coal Man, Big Truck and Visionaire, use the two Pletchers with Halo Najib and Stevil and had given Kentucky Bear in the morning. I personally didn\'t make that much from the BG itself though I had a $9 late Pk3. You don\'t think that information worthwhile. You didn\'t think it was useful knowing that KY Bear right run back or better than his first TG # because he bled through Lasix last time? I\"ve gotten about 20 emails from people that caught the exacta, tri or super in that race.
You can check out the thread if you want, it was all posted there before the race.
Greetings Mr. Clown,
Here are the exact wordings from the Keenland Clockers report compiled by Joe Ridell.
\"Pyro has never trained well over poly and is a big underlay. We believe they're just
looking to leg him up for the Derby. Both Pletcher horses, Cowboy Cal and Monba
have trained brilliantly and should run well, as should Halo Najib. We've gotten a big push on Kentucky Bear who bled through Lasix in Florida. His breeding says miler
but he could make for a gigantic super if he hits the board.\"
Later on Saturday his paddock observations were posted from the Paddock and posted on PaceAdvantage.
\"Asmussen barn has done what they can for Pyro spreading his shoes in front and filling in with acrylic to give him a bigger foot, but he\'s still smaller than average and very small behind where they\'ve done nothing. We\'ll take a shot against him using both Pletcher horses, Cowboy Cal and Monba and Halo Najib, all of whom looked fit and dappled. Zito\'s other horse Stevil is an interesting longshot in here.
Cool Coal Man, Big Truck and Visionaire look anti-poly physically. Smallish and/or very flat feet.\"
So lets analyze this. In a field of 12, he calls on you to chuck the even-money favorite from the board, as well as the 2nd, 5th, and 6th choice, leaving you with the 3rd, 4th, 7th, 9th, and 11th choice in the race, and the superfecta comes
back with everyone except the 9th choice.
From this you invoke criticism?
I\'ve watched Joe personally do his work at Keeneland. I personally hope that you don\'t have access to the reports in the future, for I am not going to read your criticism, but rather would prefer that those reports be kept silent so that I can inch up more mutuels using them.
Good luck!!
Ian,
Where did you get this hoof size stuff from, tell me you are kidding. Where\'s the data that shows that \"typical stakes\" winners at CD have a certain minimum hoof size.
Psst, most of the clockers are into the shy-locks, don\'t tell anyone.
Mike
Jerry,
My bad for littering your board by encouraging these charlatans. I apologize. Allow me this one last impeachment of these Gypsies before I hood them with the Cone of Silence.
The 9th choice was the 3rd place horse. A horse real men of work/substance had factored fast here some time ago. A \"must include\" to win the major exotics. The charlatans excluded him and then implied a Brinks truck was necessary to get them safely off site.
You\'ve got to get involved in a pyramid scheme to see similar unadulterated drivel.
No one is gullible here. Now go away.
To the legitimate Pace Advantage posters. Come to this site. Peruse all that is offered and equip yourself with the best speed numbers in the game. You\'ll be far better off than paying any attention to the PTC whackos.
richrosa Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Greetings Mr. Clown,
>
> Here are the exact wordings from the Keenland
> Clockers report compiled by Joe Ridell.
>
> \"Pyro has never trained well over poly and is a
> big underlay. We believe they're just
> looking to leg him up for the Derby. Both Pletcher
> horses, Cowboy Cal and Monba
> have trained brilliantly and should run well, as
> should Halo Najib. We've gotten a big push on
> Kentucky Bear who bled through Lasix in Florida.
> His breeding says miler
> but he could make for a gigantic super if he hits
> the board.\"
>
> Later on Saturday his paddock observations were
> posted from the Paddock and posted on
> PaceAdvantage.
>
> \"Asmussen barn has done what they can for Pyro
> spreading his shoes in front and filling in with
> acrylic to give him a bigger foot, but he\'s still
> smaller than average and very small behind where
> they\'ve done nothing. We\'ll take a shot against
> him using both Pletcher horses, Cowboy Cal and
> Monba and Halo Najib, all of whom looked fit and
> dappled. Zito\'s other horse Stevil is an
> interesting longshot in here.
>
> Cool Coal Man, Big Truck and Visionaire look
> anti-poly physically. Smallish and/or very flat
> feet.\"
>
> So lets analyze this. In a field of 12, he calls
> on you to chuck the even-money favorite from the
> board, as well as the 2nd, 5th, and 6th choice,
> leaving you with the 3rd, 4th, 7th, 9th, and 11th
> choice in the race, and the superfecta comes
> back with everyone except the 9th choice.
>
> From this you invoke criticism?
>
> I\'ve watched Joe personally do his work at
> Keeneland. I personally hope that you don\'t have
> access to the reports in the future, for I am not
> going to read your criticism, but rather would
> prefer that those reports be kept silent so that I
> can inch up more mutuels using them.
>
> Good luck!!
The title of your message suggests far more than you realize. Now we know who you are. Thanks for letting us know.
Rich,
Chuck has always been an equal opportunity sarcastic.
Mike
That\'s his problem. His credibility on this topic is completely ruined.
miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Rich,
>
>
> Chuck has always been an equal opportunity
> sarcastic.
>
>
> Mike