I really want us to look at this and use some common sense. Im just going to take the last 3 years and look at the horses that ran a zero or negative number the race prior to the derby and could not win on the big day.. Curlin, Sinister Minister, Bellamy Road, bob and john, lawyer ron, sweetnorthersaint, brother derek, circular quay, scat daddy, afleet alex, greeleys galaxy, and bandini. The amount of horses on here is just staggering. Looking at this what do you think Big Brown will do? I can tell you right now he will not be on my pick 3, 4 or 6 ticket this year ESPECIALLY at the 4-1 odds.
Taking all into Consideration, this year looks kind of like last year to me. Looks like we have several horses that will go into this race off of top efforts and bounce, horses that havent really developed fully yet or horses just too slow. Now we can truthfully see that by saying that of last year we can probably say the same thing about every year but heres where it looks the same: Street Sense last year needed a few races to be able to fire his matching 2 year old effort from the breeders cup. Now im not in any way a fan of War Pass but doesnt this seem to you all like an eerily similar situation? This is the Champ. Period. Street Sense lost to Dominican at Keeneland.. but what happened Derby Day? The Champ Prevailed. Domican got what like 16th?! Taking all these factors from the previous year and instead of debating whether horses will bounce, pair up, forge forward, or run an off race shouldnt we just use our heads and say.. Umm War Pass has run a negative 3.5 AS A 2 YEAR OLD?! He is rounding into form ya kno? (toss out the tampa bay race imo). He ran a few off races who cares. The best part is that youll probably get 8 to 1 or better for a horse capable of that tremendous effort. No one is talking about Triple Crown this year but if War Pass does win the Derby, whos going to stop him? Street Sense last year didnt win the triple crown and in hinesight got dethrowned (by my opinions) on Preakness Day by that unseasoned freak of nature Curlin (who wound up being the Breeders Cup Champ even after losing the belmont stakes to a girl and the haskell). Case in point is that Champions find out a way to win and War Pass is clearly the horse to beat in my opinion.
I just don\'t believe he can get a mile and a 1/4. His wood impressed me but I think he was all out to get 11/8.
did you see those fractions?! he lost to a horse that never developed as a 3 year old yet and was at the right place at the right time. i cant see the derby going those fractions.
To me the problem is the BIG negative # in the SLOP.
The FACT that Curlin, Sinister Minister, Bellamy Road, bob and john, lawyer ron, sweetnorthersaint, brother derek, circular quay, scat daddy, afleet alex, greeleys galaxy, and bandini did not win the Derby is not PROOF That Big Brown can\'t.
No horse had won from the 11 post out since the reconfiguration of Gulfstream either, I think it was something like 0-29 over 3 years, that didn\'t mean it was proof it couldn\'t be done. Obviously!
No 2 year old champ had not won the derby for 25+ years before Street Sense did it. Many people did not bet him in the top spot for the same reason. And I find its interesting the charge you\'re supporting falls in this category. I think that count stands at 1 for 27 now since 1979
No Favorite had won the derby for 20+ years before Fupeg won?
I can do this all day, but I think you get my point
The only thing your facts prove is THOSE horses couldn\'t win it. That being said,
I do not think War Pass is a complete toss and unless he is parked way outside because of the draw probably takes them a long way and holds on for a piece.
ronwar Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The FACT that Curlin, Sinister Minister, Bellamy
> Road, bob and john, lawyer ron, sweetnorthersaint,
> brother derek, circular quay, scat daddy, afleet
> alex, greeleys galaxy, and bandini did not win the
> Derby is not PROOF That Big Brown can\'t.
>
> No horse had won from the 11 post out since the
> reconfiguration of Gulfstream either, I think it
> was something like 0-29 over 3 years, that didn\'t
> mean it was proof it couldn\'t be done. Obviously!
>
> No 2 year old champ had not won the derby for 25+
> years before Street Sense did it. Many people did
> not bet him in the top spot for the same reason.
> And I find its interesting the charge you\'re
> supporting falls in this category. I think that
> count stands at 1 for 27 now since 1979
>
> No Favorite had won the derby for 20+ years before
> Fupeg won?
>
> I can do this all day, but I think you get my
> point
>
> The only thing your facts prove is THOSE horses
> couldn\'t win it. That being said,
> I do not think War Pass is a complete toss and
> unless he is parked way outside because of the
> draw probably takes them a long way and holds on
> for a piece.
you cant say anything about \"11\" post over 30 years or whatever towards what im talking about. im talking about a specific horse a specific year. although every horse is different and every situation is different, to me its a similar and fair angle to use compared with the street sense. Both horses have 2 year old negative tops that beat every single horse hes racing against as a 3 year old and both horses did not run that top effort prior to the derby.
my point doesnt support a 2 year old champion winning the derby alone. It supports a two year old champion running a negative number as a 2 year old and running a few off races before the effort truly counts, then winning the derby. This horse versus these type of horses entering the derby has number power and will in my opinion have great odds. The whole running a top in the slop last year is negligible to me. Unless a horse specifically shows that he cannot run on a certain surface it is what it is. I have not seen the AQ Wood numbers but im assuming that war passes effort in it was better than his first out this year but not as fast as the neg 3.5 on bc day. so if that is the case toss out the tampa derby day race and this horse is making a forward move towards that bc day effort. He only has 2 starts this year why cant he wire this weak field derby day? Unless something really changes drastically the next 3 weeks, catch me if you can boys
If you\'re that sold on that slop number, then hope for rain on May 3. Otherwise, as has been pointed out many times, slop numbers aren\'t as reliable relative to overall ability. Many horses throw out huge slop numbers that aren\'t duplicated over a fast strip.
The Big Brown hype is no more ridiculous than you putting all hope in a slop number from 6 months ago. If War Pass is a nice price, then he\'s worth playing. But as 2nd or 3rd choice......
P-Dub-- there is a whole lot of difference between 14-1 and 3-1. At 14-1 it\'s worth it even accounting for the chance that he can\'t run that fast over dry dirt AND the chance he doesn\'t make the race, because if he does go back to that 2yo top he\'s better than 50/50 to win the race. At 3-1, you\'re betting both that BB makes the race AND the big effort didn\'t blow him up a la Bellamy Road.
At worst, I give the two horses an equal chance from here. So 14-1 sounds pretty good.
JB,
14-1 qualifies as nice price and he\'ll definitely get some win money from me.
Sounds like the original poster likes him at any price.
I like War Pass at 5 to 1 or better. The hype im making has to do with the horses ability. The slop factor will always be a non factor unless a horse specifically shows he cannot run on it. The point of mentioning Big Brown was that he just like all the horses i mentioned ran big numbers prior to the derby (and even with all the horses ranging from 3 to 8 weeks rest) still bounced or regressed off those numbers and could not win the derby. When you take that into consideration as well as a slower field this year THEN look at a horse like War Pass with his past efforts and start comparing, you would see that 5 to 1 or better on him is great. A horse would have to run an effort hes never done before to beat him. Pyro has lost to him 3 times already. imo, TOSS Pyro as a derby winner, TOSS Big Brown, and who is left?! Colonel John? LOL or even better, Big Truck?! Lmao! (side note: Big truck should bounce off the walls in the bluegrass imo). The only other play i would consider would be El Gato Malo ( i dont even know if hes running) at like 35 to 1 or better to improve on the dirt surface off of that 3 he ran a few races back. But as far as i can remember i think there have been only 3 horses the make a backwards move going into the derby and actually win. Weak Field this year. Il stick with the Champ.
hey JB i havent seen the figure for Big Brown but are u saying its about a Negative 5?!! How can Big Brown NOT BOUNCE IF HE RAN THAT FAST?!!?
belveondarockz Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
TOSS Pyro as a derby winner, TOSS Big Brown, and who is left?! Colonel
> John? LOL or even better, Big Truck?! Lmao!
> (side note: Big truck should bounce off the walls
> in the bluegrass imo). The only other play i
> would consider would be El Gato Malo ( i dont even
> know if hes running) at like 35 to 1 or better to
> improve on the dirt surface off of that 3 he ran a
> few races back. But as far as i can remember i
> think there have been only 3 horses the make a
> backwards move going into the derby and actually
> win. Weak Field this year. Il stick with the
> Champ.
I wouldn\'t LOL at the Santa Anita Derby winner. They do have a history of running well in the KD. Also, lets see how Colonel John works over the surface before you just throw him out. The problem with him isn\'t talent, its the probable 3rd choice odds you\'ll get. He deserves a little more respect than that.
War Pass looks to be a solid miler.He\'s very reminiscent of Devils Bag.
Regardless of how allegedly dead the Big A was in his last,WP looked almost
like he broke down at the top of the lane and literally walked home.In fact,the
entire field looked to be in slow mo coming home.Rounding into form? 3yo debut
he trashed garbage looking a bit wingy,TB Derby(?),and looking extremely vulnerable in the Wood.Just like Devils Bag,WP is still clinging to his 2yo reputation.
Paul,
Getting tired of these west coast bias posts, hee hee.I\'ll have a martini at Siro\'s at the Spa when BB and Pyro dust Col John.You get two drinks if he beats them.
Regards,
Mike
good point imo - wp didn\'t look right to me in the stretch specially those last 7 or 8 strides . i thought they\'d certainly find something seriously wrong afterward . racing on friday before the wood card was canceled due to a lot of rain and wind late week - maybe the surface was not only dead , but hard as a boiler plate as well ...
was i watching the same race? those wood fractions were ridiculous! i would be walking too if i was on that kind of lead with that pace... and he still just missed!
>was i watching the same race? those wood fractions were ridiculous! i would be walking too if i was on that kind of lead with that pace... and he still just missed!<
The problem is that he tends to set a faster than average pace every time he runs. If he does that going 10F instead of 9F his last furlong will be in slow motion considering all his last furlongs have already been slow.
The other problem is that his primary adversary (Big Brown) also has a ton of speed. I suspect that BB may be rateable. He ran slow early and incredibly fast late on the turf as a first time starter (when he tipped his hand he could be a special horse with that over the top close). Then he laid off a horse in his second start before taking over (even though the pace was lively). However, this horse is simply not going to allow War Pass to have an easy time of it. At a minimum there\'s going to be a very high quality early bid that one of them is going to win. Then he\'s going to have to hold off the others for an extra furlong. I doubt that will be easy.
To be honest, I think the best chance for either of them to win is for the other to throw in a serious dud, break in a tangle, etc... and leave the other to set a comfortable pace.
If you hate BB because you think he\'s going to bounce to the moon, I think you should like War Pass more than you do if you think BB is going to fire another big shot. IMHO, their chances are somewhat tied to how well the other runs.
fkach Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> >was i watching the same race? those wood
> fractions were ridiculous! i would be walking too
> if i was on that kind of lead with that pace...
> and he still just missed!<
>
> The problem is that he tends to set a faster than
> average pace every time he runs. If he does that
> going 10F instead of 9F his last furlong will be
> in slow motion considering all his last furlongs
> have already been slow.
>
> The other problem is that his primary adversary
> (Big Brown) also has a ton of speed. I suspect
> that BB may be rateable. He ran slow early and
> incredibly fast late on the turf as a first time
> starter (when he tipped his hand he could be a
> special horse with that over the top close). Then
> he laid off a horse in his second start before
> taking over (even though the pace was lively).
> However, this horse is simply not going to allow
> War Pass to have an easy time of it. At a minimum
> there\'s going to be a very high quality early bid
> that one of them is going to win. Then he\'s going
> to have to hold off the others for an extra
> furlong. I doubt that will be easy.
>
> To be honest, I think the best chance for either
> of them to win is for the other to throw in a
> serious dud, break in a tangle, etc... and leave
> the other to set a comfortable pace.
>
> If you hate BB because you think he\'s going to
> bounce to the moon, I think you should like War
> Pass more than you do if you think BB is going to
> fire another big shot. IMHO, their chances are
> somewhat tied to how well the other runs.
thats exactly what i am saying.. look at the wood memorial.. Texas Wildcatter never bounced in his life. He takes 4 weeks off and goes out blazing a :22 quarter with war pass and folds halfway thru the race (bounce to the moon). i EXPECT that to be of big brown on derby day. your opinion on faster than normal fractions in previous races doesnt mean anything. We have to handicap how we feel a horse will run that day. no other horses to my knowledge have run 10f. il take my chances with the fastest horse in the race on the lead to put these donkeys asleep early in the race.
Flighted Iron Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> War Pass looks to be a solid miler.He\'s very
> reminiscent of Devils Bag.
> Regardless of how allegedly dead the Big A was in
> his last,WP looked almost
> like he broke down at the top of the lane and
> literally walked home.In fact,the
> entire field looked to be in slow mo coming
> home.Rounding into form? 3yo debut
> he trashed garbage looking a bit wingy,TB
> Derby(?),and looking extremely vulnerable in the
> Wood.Just like Devils Bag,WP is still clinging to
> his 2yo reputation.
the horse has a reason to hold a reputation...at least until someone dethrowns him. what happened last year when dominican beat street sense? he had the same rep but when it came down to it he won the derby. the champ wins. Heres another THREE examples of horses running tops on the slop and winning huge races: Ghostzapper paired negative 6s (one on the slop at monmouth) and won the breeders cup, saint liam ran a huge negative 6 on the slop and won the breeders cup, and last year bafferts horse midnight lute ran a top on the slop of a negative 7 on bc day and won the breeders cup. Champions win baby.
and just to give u my honest idea of what i am saying. i am in no way a fan at all of war pass. im just using common sense and history based on situational things i see here and it just looks too good not to play.
the guy LOL\'d at me in the other messaged and said we should give pyro and colonel john credit. sorry i cant give any credit for a horse beating up on a bunch of nobodys.
il give 2 other horses in this field any chance. El gato malo, because a 4 point new top wouldnt be a surprise to me and would probably be good enough to win here if wp didnt fire. And Tomcito, because he is another proven champ and might have needed one race out in the country before firing a new top effort and who knows what that could be. both horses would obvi come off the pace and will most likely be 30 to 1 plus odds. no reason to take pyro at 7 to 1 (or lower odds) imo at that point of view of coming off the pace from WAY back.
The first half was very quick but the 3/4 was not so brutal.I believe 1:11 and
some? From the 3/4 home is what I\'m focusing on mostly.I would have considered
his performance respectable if after 1:11 and 2/5 he would have ran on to the mile
at 1:37 or so and finished at 1:50 3/5,4/5 1:51 flat.
These are the actual fractions
:222 :46 1:112 1:382 1:52.36 27 seconds from the 3/4 to the mile and another
14 seconds for the last 1/8.He didn\'t slow down progressively.He flat out stopped.
The sad part is that only 1 horse caught him in deep stretch.I have thrown out
every horse from the Wood.The entire bunch are complete phonies.
Your analogy of SS and Dominican in the BG Stakes is farfetched at best.War Pass
has not been de-throwned yet? Recap:1 turn mile @gulfstream against absolute
pigs.2 turn mile 1/16 @ tampa(absolutely crushed.2 turn mile 1/8 @ Big A(dismally
slow finish and beaten by tale of Ekati.You keep mentioning common sense.This
sound like a horse on the come? As far as Pyro in concerned,he\'s eager to finish
and he\'s progressing albeit he\'s not wowed anyone,but they have been solid
performances.Considering the connections I would say common sense screams this
horse will continue to progress.
belveondarockz Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
And Tomcito,
> because he is another proven champ and might have
> needed one race out in the country before firing a
> new top effort and who knows what that could be.
> both horses would obvi come off the pace and will
> most likely be 30 to 1 plus odds. no reason to
> take pyro at 7 to 1 (or lower odds) imo at that
> point of view of coming off the pace from WAY
> back.
I\'m still pulling for the horse because he\'s a good story but we saw why no one is willing to buy him when we got the chance to see him run. If you didn\'t notice it, look at the replay of him coming out of the turn, the only semi-front view of him. I\'ve never seen a scarier stride. We talk of BB and whether his feet will allow him to get to the Derby, but here\'s another to worry about getting there. Maybe he\'ll buck the odds and I hope he does (and some have), but with those front legs flailing around, you have to think he\'s running on borrowed time.
\"no reason to take pyro at 7 to 1 (or lower odds) imo at that point of view of coming off the pace from WAY back\".
Bel,
In one of your previous post you think War Pass will be a good bet at 5-1 or better and now you state that Pyro might be 7-1.Are you drinking?
War Pass will at be least 10-1 and Pyro could not possibly go off at more than fav or 2nd choice in the @3-1 range, tops.Re War Pass,look for him to find a soft spot to lie down at about the eighth pole.He may not run, they know he can\'t get the trip with any authority.
Mike
If War Pass goes back to that 2YO top, he\'s 99.9% sure to win the race. (Provided you believe that top is legitimate.)
To my mind, the greatest chance War Pass has would be to take advantage of what in my midwest neck of the woods is a very wet Spring. If the Derby track comes up sloppy, War Pass has to be accorded a major boost. I make a Sloppy Derby day track a 50% probability and within that 50% is War Pass\'s best chance.
There looks like there will be some speed in the Derby. Suddenly we have Bob Black Jack and Recapturetheglory to factor with War Pass. There are those that think Big Jerry Brown will hot foot it as well. Though a :46 half on that Wood track was suicidal, even with the quick steppers, I\'ll be surprised if they force the half much below 47. (Depending on the Track.) War Pass can get very brave on the lead. Its going to be a matter of who goes after him and how hard.
TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> P-Dub-- there is a whole lot of difference between
> 14-1 and 3-1. At 14-1 it\'s worth it even
> accounting for the chance that he can\'t run that
> fast over dry dirt AND the chance he doesn\'t make
> the race, because if he does go back to that 2yo
> top he\'s better than 50/50 to win the race. At
> 3-1, you\'re betting both that BB makes the race
> AND the big effort didn\'t blow him up a la Bellamy
> Road.
>
> At worst, I give the two horses an equal chance
> from here. So 14-1 sounds pretty good.
It depends on the Bluegrass doesnt it?
miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> \"no reason to take pyro at 7 to 1 (or lower odds)
> imo at that point of view of coming off the pace
> from WAY back\".
>
>
> Bel,
>
> In one of your previous post you think War Pass
> will be a good bet at 5-1 or better and now you
> state that Pyro might be 7-1.Are you drinking?
>
> War Pass will at be least 10-1 and Pyro could not
> possibly go off at more than fav or 2nd choice in
> the @3-1 range, tops.Re War Pass,look for him to
> find a soft spot to lie down at about the eighth
> pole.He may not run, they know he can\'t get the
> trip with any authority.
>
>
> Mike
Chuck,
People will ignore Pyros race tomorrow if he runs bad.I repeat War Pass will gag at the 8th pole, if he goes.Fast pace or not, he wobbled like a drunk last 8th in the Wood.
Mike
At this point, I\'m making War Pass a very big player.
TGJB got 14-1 on him. Those are nice odds, but I can\'t dutch and make money. My benchmark is 100-1. If I select the winner of the Derby and don\'t cash it at least 100-1, I suck. I did that very thing Smarty Jones year and I\'m not gonna do it again.
miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuck,
>
>
> People will ignore Pyros race tomorrow if he runs
> bad.I repeat War Pass will gag at the 8th pole, if
> he goes.Fast pace or not, he wobbled like a drunk
> last 8th in the Wood.
>
> Mike
they will all be wobbling like drunks imo and as far as the 7 to 1 and 5 to 1 situation it doesnt matter.. big brown \"donkey\", colonel \"too slow so il sit on the\" john, and pyro aka \"let me fan 24 wide around all the horses on the final turn and try to win the roses\" are all TOSSES to win this year.
belveondarockz Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> the horse has a reason to hold a reputation...at
> least until someone dethrowns him. what happened
> last year when dominican beat street sense? he
> had the same rep but when it came down to it he
> won the derby. the champ wins. Heres another
> THREE examples of horses running tops on the slop
> and winning huge races: Ghostzapper paired
> negative 6s (one on the slop at monmouth) and won
> the breeders cup, saint liam ran a huge negative
> 6 on the slop and won the breeders cup, and last
> year bafferts horse midnight lute ran a top on the
> slop of a negative 7 on bc day and won the
> breeders cup. Champions win baby.
Dude, how much belv do you drink before you write this stuff?? Who are you, Al Davis?? Champions win baby. No, they don\'t automatically win because they were a champion. Ask the Patriots. Or any other 2 yo champion that didn\'t win the Derby. You\'re starting to think like the present day Al Davis.....not a good thing. There have been many 2 YO champions that have had less than stellar 3 yo seasons. Being 2 yo champion means nothing.
You compare a 2yo champion to other older champions - Ghostzapper (whose accomplishments dwarf War Pass the way Secretariat won the Belmont), St Liam (a BC Classic winner who threw out multiple monster efforts), and Midnight Lute (who ran the fastest number in TG history and another that threw MULTIPLE big efforts). Show me where WP has run MULTIPLE huge efforts like the 3 horses you are comparing him to. Throw out that 1 freak slop number and how good does he look??
Now, if he\'s 10-1 or better he\'s worth a bet. If the track comes up sloppy, he\'s worth a bet. Those are ifs that even if they happen, doesn\'t mean he wins.
> and just to give u my honest idea of what i am
> saying. i am in no way a fan at all of war pass.
Then I would love to hear what you would sound like if you were actually a fan of a horse.
>
im just using common sense and history based on
> situational things i see here and it just looks
> too good not to play.
Dubious on both counts.
>
> the guy LOL\'d at me in the other messaged and said
> we should give pyro and colonel john credit.
> sorry i cant give any credit for a horse beating
> up on a bunch of nobodys.
I didn\'t lol you, I responded to YOUR LOL of a horse that won a prestigious prep race and has never run worse than second. You are somehow fixated on a slop aided number that hasn\'t come close to being repeated. Many So Cal horses run well on Derby Day. Beat a bunch on nobodys. How many did War Pass beat down in Tampa?? Tell me which horses in the Wood make you proud that War Pass beat?? And regarding Pyro. He beat Tale of Ekati in the La. Derby. Tale of Ekati comes back to beat War Pass. So Pyro beat a nobody, and this same nobody comes back to beat War Pass. But we should all hail War Pass because of a negative number in the slop of his 2 YO season. I couldn\'t make this stuff up. Priceless.
>
>
il give 2 other horses in this field any chance.
> El gato malo, because a 4 point new top wouldnt be
> a surprise to me and would probably be good enough
> to win here if wp didnt fire.
So let me get this straight....... Colonel John beat nobody. But the horse that he\'s beaten in his last 2 starts, a nobody, El Gato Malo, is probably good enough if WP doesn\'t fire. And on top of that, despite evidence that horses rarely run a new top in the Derby - let alone a 4 pt top - you say its possible The Bad Kitty can run a 4 pt top. Sounds like Common Sense to me. And I see where the past history of horses running 4 pt new tops in the Derby is starting to come into focus. I\'m starting to follow you now.
> needed one race out in the country before firing a
> new top effort and who knows what that could be.
> both horses would obvi come off the pace and will
> most likely be 30 to 1 plus odds. no reason to
> take pyro at 7 to 1 (or lower odds) imo at that
> point of view of coming off the pace from WAY
> back.
A proven champ...in another country.
I have no axe to grind with you. You sound like a good dude, love the horses, etc.. But some of the arguments you are making are, I gotta say it, ridiculous. However, if War Pass wins I will congratulate you and admit I was wrong.
Before your next post, double up on the OJ and skip the belv.
belveondarockz Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> they will all be wobbling like drunks imo
You should know.
< and as far as the 7 to 1 and 5 to 1 situation it doesnt
> matter.. big brown \"donkey\", colonel \"too slow so
> il sit on the\" john, and pyro aka \"let me fan 24
> wide around all the horses on the final turn and
> try to win the roses\" are all TOSSES to win this
> year.
Mike,
Can you imagine what this board will look like if War Pass somehow manages to win?? ( As unlikely as it is).
Belv,
You are dissing some horses that have run pretty well. You\'re starting to sound like a nit. Your comments above sound like they came from someone too young to drink Belv.
Giacomo was supposed to be too slow. How did he do on Derby Day?? Lots of variables come into play besides figures. Again, lets see how Colonel John handles the strip in workouts before you throw him out. He\'s gonna win me a couple drinks from Miff. And after reading some of your posts, it sure as hell won\'t be belvedere.
in my scattered fashion :) :
champions dont automatically win!many do though! your missing the point p dub. THIS YEAR.. THIS RACE.. THIS SITUATION... wp has a potential of a negative 3. im comparing this to a similar situation to street sense last year. street sense ran a top effort and ran a few off races then fired derby day. im not saying wp will do the same but the horses in the field this year look pretty terrible to be honest with you and many of the faster horses just ran new tops last out.
about el gato malo... yes he has lost to colonel john twice but a 3-4 point improvement off his top effort isnt out of the question.. it is in question with colonel john.. he ran a top race and i have him regressing off that last effort. so in this ONE situation i would play el gato in front of colonel john at bigger and HUGE odds and take my chances. the horse has plenty of room for improvement.. i believe only 2-3 points overall improvement.
as far as tomcito he has won those big races in another country yes i agree. i would think a horse like that could naturaly improve off those 2 yo top numbers as they should so maybe he needed one out before firing a nice race?! i dunno but compared to the field i think he has a much better shot to do so then many of the ones in here bc they were faster figures...wp has off efforts that beat most in this field and im not trying to say that this negative 3 is god, but its a number he has a possibility of running too (at great odds probably about 7 to 1 or so or higher that day) and if not that wouldnt u think a \"0 to a neg 2\" would be good here?
i cant see comparing the patriots to this situation?! every year in football is different just as every race presents a new situation. the edge to me in this years race is that many horses plain out suck and would need huge improvements to win. its a longshot...tooo long. il take a shot with the proven horse! everyone keeps talking about the wood but what no one says is that he can actually IMPROVE off that effort. u PROBABLY and MOST likely cant say that about Tale of Ekati! it took the poor horse 5 or so efforts to go forward and now with 4 weeks off comes off a race its never done before. il confidently say thatll be a bounce imo.
i will agree with you that i shouldnt compare wp to ghostzapper, midnight lute or saint liam but im just trying to point out that although a horse like Commendable beat saint liam in stakes races or a horse like brother derek beat midnight lute (as an example) or a dominican horse beat street sense, when it came down to it, many have run championship effforts in championship races and stepped up like they proved previously. and by previously i mean an effort that was run that the horse could (with plenty of evidence and factors such as rest, condition and all) run back to and destroy the field or it be the best number in that particular race and be the best bet.
the tampa bay race was a complete toss out race imo and just take a pen and scribble the number!
it amazes me that you buy this product and dont take the numbers for what they are.. ive noticed many people in this forum say.. well a horse ran a \"6\" (as an example going 6f and an \"8\" going a mile and a 1/16 so the horse is \"better\" going shorter. How can that be true?! the horse couldve ran an 8 cause it reacted slightly to the 6 or it couldve went forward off of a \"9\" off effort. i hear people saying the same thing about slop efforts.. it makes me sick. You all pay for this accurate information.. u see a negative 3 for wp and then u make EXCUSES for discounting the information. my advice is that you take the number for what it is and stop discounting efforts (unless there is a true and valid reason to discount an effort),,, a sloppy track to me does not qualify for a discounted effort imo unless a horse specifically shows that he hates the slop and runs bad every time. a PRIME example of what im talking about is that race of the week! look at the numbers.. the pick of the week is a horse that bounced last time out 5 points! in this case, i dont care if its 190 days ago or 32 days ago or 3 days ago! and i dont care of the fact that it bounced going on a soft turf route! it bounce is a bounce! rebellion has run on the turf before and has done better....how do u play a horse TO WIN or make him a key, that has NO INDICATION at all to run a top effort or ANY decent effort for that matter at 6 to 1 odds!? cause of a trainer?! or rest?! u have to be joking me..yea il take a shot with rebellion being 25 to 1 lightly.. other than that i just dont see it. the horses in the race would have to be pretty bad for me to think he would run a winning effort.
anyways, this is pretty fun going back and forth with our opinions.. i have no axes here either p dub and i do agree that my thoughts are scattered at times and i try to put light to what i say. i cant make promises with the drinkin.. i sure do heart premium voooodka! =D
Belve,
You\'re a good dude. Most people would have taken offense at my post and blasted me. I still disagree with some of your points, but I sure the hell aint right all the time. Thnks for taking some of my smartass comments in the spirt they were intended to be. No harm meant, just having fun with you. You love the horses like most of us around here.
Caught Rascal Flatts in SJ tonight (my girl likes country music) and it wasn\'t a bad show. Time for me to get some shuteye. Looking forward to the races tom orrow. Good Luck.....someday we\'ll hook up and the first belv is on me.
Sifting through this group of posts has been interesting...some smart stuff.
I want to react to your West Coast bias post...I like Col John as a possibility because this may be the year in which we learn something about the shift from surface to surface. This horse will supply the data. I don\'t see how you can discount him until he makes the change.
Overall, however, I think you are right about Pyro and I hope he does NOT handle the synth at Keeneland very well...it might be the only way we get odds on him in the Derby.
Hey!
How did I get involved in this?
belveondarockz has an opinion. He loves War Pass and Doesn\'t like a bunch of others.
I will say this. I thought Tale of Ekati had it all his own way in the Wood and even in victory, did not look impressive.
The Wood reminds me somewhat of the 1997 Santa Anita Derby. In that race a good horse was exposed to a severe pace test and acquitted himself even in defeat. Which is NOT to say I like War Pass to win.
P-Dub Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> belveondarockz Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > they will all be wobbling like drunks imo
>
> You should know.
>
> < and as far as the 7 to 1 and 5 to 1 situation it
> doesnt
> > matter.. big brown \"donkey\", colonel \"too slow
> so
> > il sit on the\" john, and pyro aka \"let me fan
> 24
> > wide around all the horses on the final turn
> and
> > try to win the roses\" are all TOSSES to win
> this
> > year.
>
> Mike,
> Can you imagine what this board will look like if
> War Pass somehow manages to win?? ( As unlikely as
> it is).
>
> Belv,
> You are dissing some horses that have run pretty
> well. You\'re starting to sound like a nit. Your
> comments above sound like they came from someone
> too young to drink Belv.
>
>
> Giacomo was supposed to be too slow. How did he do
> on Derby Day?? Lots of variables come into play
> besides figures. Again, lets see how Colonel John
> handles the strip in workouts before you throw him
> out. He\'s gonna win me a couple drinks from Miff.
> And after reading some of your posts, it sure as
> hell won\'t be belvedere.
PDub,
A horse can certainly relish slop and run a big effort he can\'t repeat on dry footing.
What can also happen is that a large percentage of the runners can run non representative races on the slop and thus become poor or inaccurate extrapolation tools. So rather than say 80% of the field running their race for \"figure corroboration\" purposes, only two or three horses run their race and a big number is assigned in part upon the beaten lengths of the off form losers. Whats really horrific is if only 1 horse runs it race. In that event its possible to have a very bad apple assigned that can spoil other apples for races to come.
belveondarockz Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> in my scattered fashion :) :
>
> champions dont automatically win!many do though!
> your missing the point p dub. THIS YEAR.. THIS
> RACE.. THIS SITUATION... wp has a potential of a
> negative 3. im comparing this to a similar
> situation to street sense last year. street sense
> ran a top effort and ran a few off races then
> fired derby day. im not saying wp will do the same
> but the horses in the field this year look pretty
> terrible to be honest with you and many of the
> faster horses just ran new tops last out.
>
> about el gato malo... yes he has lost to colonel
> john twice but a 3-4 point improvement off his top
> effort isnt out of the question.. it is in
> question with colonel john.. he ran a top race and
> i have him regressing off that last effort. so in
> this ONE situation i would play el gato in front
> of colonel john at bigger and HUGE odds and take
> my chances. the horse has plenty of room for
> improvement.. i believe only 2-3 points overall
> improvement.
>
> as far as tomcito he has won those big races in
> another country yes i agree. i would think a
> horse like that could naturaly improve off those 2
> yo top numbers as they should so maybe he needed
> one out before firing a nice race?! i dunno but
> compared to the field i think he has a much better
> shot to do so then many of the ones in here bc
> they were faster figures...wp has off efforts that
> beat most in this field and im not trying to say
> that this negative 3 is god, but its a number he
> has a possibility of running too (at great odds
> probably about 7 to 1 or so or higher that day)
> and if not that wouldnt u think a \"0 to a neg 2\"
> would be good here?
>
> i cant see comparing the patriots to this
> situation?! every year in football is different
> just as every race presents a new situation. the
> edge to me in this years race is that many horses
> plain out suck and would need huge improvements to
> win. its a longshot...tooo long. il take a shot
> with the proven horse! everyone keeps talking
> about the wood but what no one says is that he can
> actually IMPROVE off that effort. u PROBABLY and
> MOST likely cant say that about Tale of Ekati! it
> took the poor horse 5 or so efforts to go forward
> and now with 4 weeks off comes off a race its
> never done before. il confidently say thatll be a
> bounce imo.
>
> i will agree with you that i shouldnt compare wp
> to ghostzapper, midnight lute or saint liam but im
> just trying to point out that although a horse
> like Commendable beat saint liam in stakes races
> or a horse like brother derek beat midnight lute
> (as an example) or a dominican horse beat street
> sense, when it came down to it, many have run
> championship effforts in championship races and
> stepped up like they proved previously. and by
> previously i mean an effort that was run that the
> horse could (with plenty of evidence and factors
> such as rest, condition and all) run back to and
> destroy the field or it be the best number in that
> particular race and be the best bet.
>
> the tampa bay race was a complete toss out race
> imo and just take a pen and scribble the number!
>
> it amazes me that you buy this product and dont
> take the numbers for what they are.. ive noticed
> many people in this forum say.. well a horse ran a
> \"6\" (as an example going 6f and an \"8\" going a
> mile and a 1/16 so the horse is \"better\" going
> shorter. How can that be true?! the horse
> couldve ran an 8 cause it reacted slightly to the
> 6 or it couldve went forward off of a \"9\" off
> effort. i hear people saying the same thing about
> slop efforts.. it makes me sick. You all pay for
> this accurate information.. u see a negative 3 for
> wp and then u make EXCUSES for discounting the
> information. my advice is that you take the
> number for what it is and stop discounting efforts
> (unless there is a true and valid reason to
> discount an effort),,, a sloppy track to me does
> not qualify for a discounted effort imo unless a
> horse specifically shows that he hates the slop
> and runs bad every time. a PRIME example of what
> im talking about is that race of the week! look
> at the numbers.. the pick of the week is a horse
> that bounced last time out 5 points! in this case,
> i dont care if its 190 days ago or 32 days ago or
> 3 days ago! and i dont care of the fact that it
> bounced going on a soft turf route! it bounce is a
> bounce! rebellion has run on the turf before and
> has done better....how do u play a horse TO WIN or
> make him a key, that has NO INDICATION at all to
> run a top effort or ANY decent effort for that
> matter at 6 to 1 odds!? cause of a trainer?! or
> rest?! u have to be joking me..yea il take a shot
> with rebellion being 25 to 1 lightly.. other than
> that i just dont see it. the horses in the race
> would have to be pretty bad for me to think he
> would run a winning effort.
>
> anyways, this is pretty fun going back and forth
> with our opinions.. i have no axes here either p
> dub and i do agree that my thoughts are scattered
> at times and i try to put light to what i say. i
> cant make promises with the drinkin.. i sure do
> heart premium voooodka! =D
\"Can you imagine what this board will look like if
War Pass somehow manages to win?? ( As unlikely as it is)\"
Paul,
Anyone can win,a lesson in that regard was learned when a west coast slow rat Giacomo, ugh, won the derby. WP is at least fast, just distance challanged imo.
Would have been interesting if TG had \"late\" figs in their new race shape. Since they do not, I will tell you that people who make such figs have WP as an A-minus decelerator, meaning he slows the last 1/8 at an abnormal rate(except his 1st out this year) relative to his overall performance.Many horses with his free running early gas style show that, but his is extreme according to the guys who make and study the stuff.
Mike
War Pass has a pedigree that looks especially good for slop.
I\'m not sure if it\'s a shoe thing, his training method or whatever. But over the years I\'ve seen a real lot of horses move up a lot in slop for Nick Zito.
War Pass is a loose lead type. I believe a fairly high percentage of those really big slop efforts that don\'t get duplicated come from horses that earned them with loose leads.
So whatever the probability is that a random big figure on slop happens to be related to slop, IMO it\'s higher for War Pass. Of course it\'s not certain, but IMO it\'s a bigger risk to take his fast figure at face value than for some other horses.
Excellent points therein.
No doubt about viewing the Monmouth race with a healthy degree of skepticism.
But the intriguing scenario is what if Churchill comes up sloppy? Does everything change in that event?
Churchill is due south of me. Its wet and rainy this morning. It was wet and rainy yesterday and the day before as well.
Oh!..theres a boomer!
fkach Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> War Pass has a pedigree that looks especially good
> for slop.
>
> I\'m not sure if it\'s a shoe thing, his training
> method or whatever. But over the years I\'ve seen a
> real lot of horses move up a lot in slop for Nick
> Zito.
>
> War Pass is a loose lead type. I believe a fairly
> high percentage of those really big slop efforts
> that don\'t get duplicated come from horses that
> earned them with loose leads.
>
> So whatever the probability is that a random big
> figure on slop happens to be related to slop, IMO
> it\'s higher for War Pass. Of course it\'s not
> certain, but IMO it\'s a bigger risk to take his
> fast figure at face value than for some other
> horses.
no offense taken at all p dub.. i sure do love the horses and of the many things i have learned is that there is no true right or wrong way to look at the sheets. being that every race is different i look at the competition that day and sort of narrow down looking for value and if none is there perhaps look at the next race or two for leverage with my short odds pick with the doubles pick 3s or 4\'s. Ive always said Half the battle is the handicapping...the other half which people do not realize is the betting! u can have a winning horse or a winning key and if u wager wrong what does it mean?! nada!
anyways good luck to u and everyone today... looks like a pretty nice card all around!