After watching many hours of race replays of all the top 2008 Derby Contenders, I can confidently say that nobody even comes close to Big Brown this year. I don\'t even need to see the Ark Derby or the Bluegrass. Visually he\'s so much more superior to these other three year olds - he\'s truly a man among boys. His cruising rate is almost twice that of the others. I think he simply gallops on May 3rd regardless of post position. It will not matter. On thoro-figures he\'s what, 4 points faster than any other three year old this year (War Pass\' and Pyro\'s two year old figures notwithstanding)? He\'s yet to bounce and has good spacing between starts. Oh yeah - and he can rate comfortably off leaders as he did in his Gulstream allowance win.
I do not like chaulk. I really don\'t like Dutrow at all, but this horse is too legit. Desormeaux lucked out.
Do yourself a favor and watch all three career starts on Youtube. Just type his name in and the races will come up.
It\'s not even close
I\'ve tried telling people this, and all I get back is: \"Yeah, but he\'ll be a short price.\"
That he will. But your \"man among boys\" comment, Buck, reminds me of 2000 and the way Fu Peg towered over his competition that year.
I\'ll be looking for underneath horses only for this Derby if Big Brown goes; if he doesn\'t go, it\'s a horse race again.
If I was factoring BJB a standout, I sure wouldn\'t be comparing him to FuPig.
Rick B. Wrote:
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> I\'ve tried telling people this, and all I get back
> is: \"Yeah, but he\'ll be a short price.\"
>
> That he will. But your \"man among boys\" comment,
> Buck, reminds me of 2000 and the way Fu Peg
> towered over his competition that year.
>
> I\'ll be looking for underneath horses only for
> this Derby if Big Brown goes; if he doesn\'t go,
> it\'s a horse race again.
Kentucky Derby only, CTC. Fu Peg was tons the best leading up to the Derby, and spanked \'em all on Derby day. I spent a small fortune trying to beat him that day, because \"he was such a short price\". That was just stupid.
I don\'t care what Fu Peg did later, and I didn\'t say that Big Brown would win the Triple Crown, The Travers, and the BC Classic this year, either.
name the last derby winner without a race at two? big brown will bounce or not make to the gate. I have seen every derby since Riva Ridge, and yet to see a horse without foundation win the race. Also, Boundary couldn\'t get a mile and an 8th, let alone another post. At 5/2, TOSS HIM OUT. There will be money made on may 3 doing just that!
Not sure why absence of a two year old race is relevant factor in the case of Big Brown -- he broke his maiden at Saratoga around two turns against a maiden field where they tend to have relatively strong fields (his maiden purse was $63k). One would say that a two turn win on Labor Day of one\'s two year old year is a positive rather than a negative.
Also, in my view, looking at what factors other derby winners had and other derby losers had is handicapping by anecdote rather than using truer trends and tendancies. The number of modern derbies run is such a small sampling that any statistic is nothing more than an anecdote. Although Curlin did not win the derby, he did beat 17 horses in the derby and his first race was in February. I am not suggesting this means anything. Just tossing one anecdote at another anecdote. I would say that the only thing that makes the derby different is its distance, the huge traffic caused by 20 horses, and the fact there is such a crush of humanity that horses that are easily spooked can come apart.
In terms of the special derby elements, I normally think breeding is very important for getting the extra distance but in modern times most of the horses are poorly bred for distance so you have a bunch of middle distance horses competing at the wrong distance for them. Breeding still needs to be considered, but I would be careful not to overweight it. I do think experience is very important for helping a horse get that last furlong or two as well as dealing with the 20 horses. On this score, maybe somebody could say that Big Brown has not had any adversity and nobody knows how he will react when he is hooked late or when he has to deal with being trapped or knocked over. however, that question has little to do with the fact that he only had one 2 year old race and a lot more to do with the fact he has only had 3 races total -- and with the exception of the Florida Derby, his races were basically trouble-free walkovers. In terms of the crush of humanity issue, he did win his debut at Saratogaa on Labor Day which can have more people than tracks normally get these days and Florida Derby Day is a big day in a hot clime. Of course, one needs to see how he reacts on the day of the race, but this horse does seem to be able to handle large crowds.
On balance, the fact that he has yet to prove himself in adverse conditions is a possible knock against him. However, post 12 at Gulfstream was one type of adversity and he handled that fine and also we have to remember it is not like he has faced adversity and failed -- he just hasn\'t had the opportunity yet. We will need to see what the Derby field comes up like and determine what kind of trip he will get, what kind of a trip his chief adversaries will get, and what we can expect to be unfolding in the stretch. While I, too, like to throw out heavily bet horses, it is not a good practice to do without undertaking a lot of thought first.
In terms of breeding, by current standards and in my view, he is no worse than a lot of the horses than run in the Derby. He does have Damascus and Round Table on both the top and the bottom which help somewhat. Additionally, he has Forli and Roberto on his mother\'s side (the mother even has Lauren Stich\'s favorite feature -- she calls it the Rasmussen Factor -- because she had the influential dam Rough Shod on both her top and bottom). We will need to see how his competitors are bred, but, to me, his pedigree is no worse than the usual derby pedigree these days in my view. It is not as if he has a sprinter\'s pedigree and they are trying to stretch him. He has more of a middle distance pedigree.
Pres,
What horse are you speaking of? BB did race and win at two and already won at 1 and 1/8 th mile, a dead send, impossible post and a huge neg fig.Whether he will win or not is debatable, but the points you make are already asked and answered.He has more than sufficient foundation, the question is has he gone too fast,too soon since his first effort this year, a TG 1, is a big fig to run with only three modest works.Follow that with a lights out neg fig and you normally have the makings of an implosion.
This horse is a question of getting there sound. He towers over on raw ability and the bounce factor may not be that relevant because of Tricky and 5 weeks spacing, a lethal combination heretofore.Having said that, for all of Trickys magic, no stuff can overcome serious infirmary, if it exist.
Mike
>While I, too, like to throw out heavily bet horses, it is not a good practice to do without undertaking a lot of thought first. <
I agree completely.
Follow this:
1. As a group, \"short priced\" favorites tend to outperform the track take slightly.
2. Occasionally, the public overbets a favorite badly or even makes a false favorite.
3. If you do a reasonable job of eliminating some of the false favorites, as a group the remaining ones will outperform the track take by even more than the orginal group.
4. In races where there is a legitimate short priced favorite, as a group the remaining horses will lose MUCH MUCH more than the track take because it has to come from somewhere.
IMHO, if you analyze a race and conclude that the favorite is solid and not wildy overbet, you should be extra careful about taking a stand against him because you are playing a very difficult game.
I think we should learn something about BB\'s soundness any day now because he should breeze shortly if he\'s doing well. If he doesn\'t show up soon, I would suspect something is amiss.
The 5 weeks spacing and dutrow are the only positives when looking at the effort distribution for 3yos in the race subsequent to a -1 figure or better earned before July which shows
top 0 %
pair 18.8%
off 29.2%
x 52.1%
lets say he pairs the top, he may be 20% to win. Would you take 3-1?
Thank you Fkach for making the point that needs to be made.
My opinion is that BB needs more than a couple of \"breezes\" to complete his
Derby preparation, given the low mileage on his odometer.
When comparing BB\'s light 3YO schedule to FuPeg, remember that FuPeg had 2 two-
turn stakes races (San Felipe and Wood Memorial) leading up to the Derby.
If BB can win the Derby off of his light racing schedule and without much
preparation between the Fla Derby and the Ky Derby, I will be humming the tune
to \"Super Freak\"...much the way I do whenever I see a picture of my former
Governor.
Rich,
If he pairs his top, he\'s much less than 3-1 to win and I would take that for what I could beg, borrow or steal. Who could possibly beat him, except maybe Pyro, if he pairs?
Mike
If he pairs the top, he might be 50% to win, or even higher. Who can run in the negative 3ish range? War Pass, once on a sloppy track? Anybody else has to move up 4 points to win.
I would say it is less than 50% that a contender runs a 4 point new top in the derby or War Pass runs back to his Monmouth BC race.
So, if BB pairs, he has to lose an awful lot of ground to not win.
I love this series of posts. I hope all of you who responded with some brains will take a nap, so the BB rooters can have a field day. Please let them knock the odds down on this one, so the rest of us have a shot at winning at a price.
alm Wrote:
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> I love this series of posts. I hope all of you
> who responded with some brains will take a nap, so
> the BB rooters can have a field day. Please let
> them knock the odds down on this one, so the rest
> of us have a shot at winning at a price.
That\'s pretty arrogant, considering the esteemed group of posters already recorded here, excluding me.
I might also point out that it doesn\'t take a whole helluva lot of brains (or courage) to diss the expected favorite in the Derby. Tell us who\'s going to win, genius.
Don\'t want to rain on your parade, Alm, but there is another factor nobody has mentioned so far about Big Brown -- to wit, the horse has yet to react!
In my book, I never give a horse a reaction until he has given me a reaction. We simply have no idea what a horse is until he reacts. I do not want to scare people, but what happens if Big Brown steps forward in the Kentucky Derby? I know it sounds crazy to say a young 3 year old can run a minus X and then actually come back in his next start and run a minus 2X, but why not? If you saw a three year old who ran a 20-17-14 in its first three races, what would you expect him to run in his fourth race? You would have to give him a significant percentage chance of moving forward. Well, the only difference with Big Brown is that his three races are so huge you have to think they must take a toll. But, without knowing what the horse\'s baseline is, how can you judge that? Remember, this is a 3 year old, early in the season, making only his third start of the year, with good rest into the race. All conditions militate more towards moving forward than towards going backward. While I would have to think that the chances of him moving forward are not high, I do not think they can be reasonably said to be non-existent.
Again, I am not excited about betting a favorite, but I would have to think that this horse could end up being very hard to go against.
I think he can OFF (ala Smarty Jones) and have a great chance to still win. What is considered an X? 3pts or more? Heck, he can back up 4pts and win! Especially if he gets lets say a 1w 1w trip or a 2w 1w. Everyone behind him will be grinding away. I have not seen anyone with a nice turn of foot or who could be cut off and come on again (if I missed him, please point\'em out)
My guess is he will not have the best figure coming out of the race, but he doesn\'t have too...which gets me to thinking, how many times have the best figure not won the Derby?
Ronwar,
\"I have not seen anyone with a nice turn of foot or who could be cut off and come on again (if I missed him, please point\'em out)\"
Ron,
Pyro has an exceptional turn of foot which he has sustained going up to 1@ 1/16 mile. Whether he can make his same powerful run at the 1 @ 1/4 distance is the only question he has not answered. No one is considering that his two slow preps figs were mainly the result of extremely slow paces where he could not make up time on the clock. Had the paces been fast, I am certain he would have been in the zero range or lower.
On the bright side of Pyro, he should not be gutted from making a late run off two very slow paces. Now he polys, how fast could he possibly go in there?.On the dark side, I was not impressed that he did not separate and run away from that pace setting 70-1 shot,last race,the last 70 yards.Maybe the pace was just so slow that the 70-1 has some gas left.
Mike
When BB ducked towards the rail in the stretch in the Fl Derby he told you everything you needed to know.
Keep pumping him. Pyro and Col John are the contenders.
With respect to all the posters this thread, we have not had our morning cup of brown kool aid yet. No questioning \"Brown\'s talent but...
On pedigree, there is little to suggest that a mile and a quarter in May of his sophomore year will suit. His bobbing and weaving in the Florida Derby noted. Brown\'s sire, Boundary\'s best offspring is probably Pomeroy. Out of a Seeking the Gold mare, Pomeroy won graded stakes up to seven furlongs. In Pomeroy\'s first seventeen starts he had three layoffs, each longer than seven months.
On soundness, \"Brown has issues. The initial 2 million offer was rejected due to \"an ankle\" and Brown has had more sixty day layoffs than he has had races. His glue on, five hundred dollar shoes, with copiuos quantities of fiberglass implants will not go over well, at Churchill, a clay based track which is notoriously unkind to bad footed horses.
It has been twelve days since the Florida Derby and no works. Now he has to work thrice in 24 days. Aware that Dutrow is a chemically capable magician but Brown needs a practicing podiatrist. Our host, posted a few days ago that \"Brown was about fifty percent to be in the gate and as Rich posted the probability of an x is about fifty percent. A little early to engrave the trophy indeed! BBB
What is the argument here? That there are good reasons to toss the favorite in the Derby? I would have thought this was obviously true, of every Derby - just based on the size of the field. We don\'t even have the draw!!
Of course there are soundess issues. (Scat Daddy\'s bar shoes certainly did him no favors last year.) But speculating on that now is a bit silly (as was betting BB late in the futures pool). We will have to wait a couple of weeks to know this. But since we don\'t have to bet now, what is the point?
If the issue is that BB seems to have the talent to regress and still win, that also seems pretty clearly true. I\'ll trust the clock over breeding.
On the workouts issue, why is it a problem for BB to get sufficient work in 24 days? When will the Bluegrass and last week\'s stakes runners get their works in? If the answer is that the races count as a work, doesn\'t the same apply to BB - he just got a harder work in a week earlier?
Uh oh...these posts are getting too intelligent.
I agree there is no magic in the number of works the horse has in the period between his races. However, it\'s the amount and intensity of his overall training that will tell whether or not they are coddling him.
As I mentioned in previous posts, I think they will run this horse on three legs if it comes to that...it takes unusal and caring connections (Neil Drysdale and AP Indy) to do what\'s best for a horse when the Kentucky Derby is beckoning an owner.
You only get one shot, so more often than not, they take it.
I admit I am underinformed on BB\'s infirmities. I had only read that he had hoof problems, which is bad enough. But if there was an ankle issue, which makes a ton more sense given how he ducked to the rail after running into the Gulfstream stretch, he is toast.
Still, I hope a lot of people bet on him, so I can find a value horse somewhere else in the field.
Three issues seem to keep coming up regarding BB\'s soundness:
Quarter cracks: Here\'s a link to a blog post about an interview done with Dutrow concerning BB\'s problems, what\'s been done about them, and where they stand.
http://hoofcare.blogspot.com/2008/04/big-browns-trainer-richard-dutrow-says.html
Florida Derby stretch run: I\'m amazed that no one in the mainstream racing press has done more with this, like interview Kent Desormeaux. I haven\'t been able to watch a head-on of the stretch, but I\'ve seen posts from people who have and I\'ve looked at the pan shot. The problem was that he bore out, not that he bore in. As he started his run through the stretch, he started to drift out. KD hit him right-handed, but he continued to drift. Finally, KD pulled on the left rein and got BB over to the rail. (As TGJB noted in another thread, there\'s an ugly looking step in there somewhere.) After KD got him over to the rail and started hand riding him, BB drifted out again through the wire.
Work pattern: Based on the patterns I\'m used to seeing, I wouldn\'t expect a work until two weeks after a race, which would mean this coming weekend. Barbaro worked only twice between his Florida and Kentucky Derbies, with the first work not coming until 3 weeks after the Florida Derby.
I just do not get Pyro. If you want to toss someone, he is my guy. Everyone is in love with him, for good reason perhaps. He will not be in the top four spots on my tickets. If this guys was on the west coast in any year, even before the cushion stuff running those numbers, my guess is a lot of you guys would be saying too slow. And after this cushion try it will be three races he has not got\'n back to his 2yr old top (can\'t wait to hear what TG says about that), which was in the slop by the way. It\'s that east coast bias I suppose. Outside of the slop performance, he\'s like the the rest of \'em. To me there are a handful of horses that will be double digits just as fast. With 20 horses, his racing style, I\'m betting him to find traffic and flat\'n out. Pyro is a mirage! :) I hope he wins Saturday or closes like a freight train, but something tells me he wont
alm Wrote:
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> As I mentioned in previous posts, I think they
> will run this horse on three legs if it comes to that
That\'s a fairly irresponsible statement -- unless you have any prior examples of Dutrow and owner IEAH Stables running horses that are unfit. Do you?
> I admit I am underinformed on BB\'s infirmities.
And with thy own tongue...or fingers, in this case.
If BB gets a clean trip or anything close, he will have a big shot. Curlin ran thrird, after a terrible trip.
Talent alone doesn\'t win the Derby. Never has, never will. It takes talent AND foundation, both physical and mental.
A lot of truly talented horses have tried the Derby off three or four lifetime starts: Curlin, Indian Charlie, Congaree, Medaglia d\'Oro, High Limit, Flower Alley, Stephen Got Even, Air Forbes One, Showing Up, etc.
It\'s a pretty impressive list.
And yet none of them could pull it off.
That long, long run down the Churchill backstretch -- coupled with a full field of 20, plus 150,000 screaming people -- demands so much from a horse, takes so much stamina to endure the frenzy of it all. It\'s a very strange and unusual dynamic, and one that I believe requires more foundation than Big Brown could possibly have. I\'ll have no trouble tossing him from the win spot come Derby day.
Very true Lance, But the trip is very important.
Street Sence: Super clean on the rail from last to 1st.
Barbaro: Sat a great trip was never touched, was never more then 4 lengths of the
front end, then rolled when asked.
Smart Jones: Perfect trip as one can have!
Funny Cide: Another great trip! Empire maker was better but the trip cost him.
War Emblem: The perfect isolated front end trip! I believe with a better trip last year Curlin would have at least run 2nd, but he was mangled all over the place.
Giacomo: I still thin the worst derby i have ever watched. Afleet Alex was much the best of the entire crew, but his trip was terrible to say the least.
Thanks for the post...it\'s difficult to know exactly what was happening with this horse, down the lane, and you can read the actions several different ways, for sure. Personally I thought the drifting out at the head of the stretch indicated a general tiring and slowing. Desormeaux tried to straighten him out, as most jockeys would do, and that would have been ok if he moved over some...however, the horse kept veering all the way to the rail, which I will bet was not where Desormeaux wanted him to go...too much wasted ground.
For a horse that came into the race with soundness questions, the movement is a bad, bad sign, no matter why it was happening. When a horse drifts or bears in or out, he is usually running away from the pain, favoring his opposite side. This animal may be the most brilliant runner of his crop, but he won\'t be the first of that type to suffer from an infirmity.
The real point of this site is to identify quality and to identify value. There isn\'t going to be any value in betting this horse. But I leave that to others.
I agree with Ronwar. What\'s with the love affair with Pyro? Colonel John makes a little more sense since it could be guessed that he may improve on dirt. People talk of Pyro\'s big kick but big kicks can happen pretty easily when the horse is going slow early. A real turn of foot is what is shown by a horse who is running fast but still has another gear in which to accelerate quickly. Pyro may be the best of the group in the Blue Grass but he\'ll probably win again in a performance that doesn\'t really impress.
If Brown is working well over the Churchill surface leading into the race and shows no signs of a physical issue, it\'d be bone-headed to ignore him. There\'s no comparison to Curlin because there\'s no Street Sense and Hard Spun in this Derby.
Actually, there are two Street Senses pointing for the Derby.
You guys need to take a look at the question of 2yo tops and development. Other than Monarchos, most win with a number within 6-7 points of their 2yo top (especially recently-- SS won by just coming back to it, SJ didn\'t even have to run his top). What number will it take to win?
Also remember that relatively few horses run new tops in the Derby, so if they are not fast enough to win going in, they probably won\'t.
Bit;
\"Barbaro worked only twice between his Florida and Kentucky Derbies, with the first work not coming until 3 weeks after the Florida Derby\"
And what happened in Baltimore two weeks on? Re BB\'s soundness, this may not be your best comparison (as they both started out on turf and had a lot of white space in their sheets).
Bob
I\'m not sure I buy into all this bearing out/in issue with BB.
As a general rule, I don\'t like the idea any more than anyone else. But I really didn\'t see a horses that was drifting out or bearing in because of soreness etc...
It looked to me like he was drifting out a little in early stretch and the jock used the right hand whip to straighten him out. Then the horse overreacted in response. Had the horse kept bearing out despite right handed whipping or continued bearing in despite left handed whipping I would be more concerned. I would also be concerned if he didn\'t finish or gallop out well. I thought he was striding out well both at the finish and afterwards. Granted, I am not an expert in this kind of analysis, but I think people might be overthinking this.
IMO what we have here is a highly talented horse with a history of physical issues. Most likely he also hasn\'t had the ideal preparation (though not terrible either) for peaking on the first Saturday in May at 10F at CD. Those are risks, but IMO they aren\'t clear eliminations either. They may also get clarified a bit in the next few weeks when we get to see him work some more.
Again-- if you watch closely, you will see BB take a bad step coming to the 16th pole (you can see his head drop), followed by an immediate left turn. Doesn\'t necessarily affect what happens 5 weeks later, but it can\'t be a plus.
Big jumps to big numbers almost always hurt. Magic\'s comments about Barbaro are right on target-- he\'s a great example (and some of us took a big position against him BEFORE the Preakness).
In the last 5 years--
Every Derby winner ran at least a 4 1/2 at two.
Three out of the five won without a new top.
Now granted, the synthetics may be screwing everything up...
I looked at the replay several times and saw the bad step.
I\'m not saying he\'s a mortal lock to duplicate his last race, that I think a three race career is ideal to get a horse ready for the unique challenges of the Derby, or that he\'s not having some problems as we discuss this.
What I am suggesting is that it\'s possible people may be looking for a reason to bet against him because he\'ll be the favorite (most likely) and are grasping at the fact that he did a dance down the stretch as a reason without watching how well he went out after that.
I may bet against him myself, but it won\'t be for that reason.
It will be because he\'s not acting right in his works leading up to the Derby (which I would consider more solid evidence that something is amiss again) or because I don\'t think he\'s going to get a good enough pace set up to hold off some of the quality closers (some of which still have another race).
I am also less apt to just throw him out off the fast figure because I think it was a very legitimate performance and I thought he flashed exceptional potential right from the start of his career. I thought many of the other 3YOs with fast figures that disappointed in past years earned them under ideal conditions etc... that made it less likely they would. Different strokes I guess.
This had to come up sooner or later (and CTC and anyone else who wants to challenge the Wood figure are barred from commenting): Bellamy Road.
That one even got me. He had a MUCH better 2yo foundation than BB (not only ran 5 1/2, paired it up), and a faster top, which represented about the same jump. And he didn\'t take any bad steps or lug in. He had four weeks rest. Boing.
Big jumps to big numbers hurt.
Magicnight -
My point in that regard was really more that working back in less than two weeks would be unusual and should not be taken as a sign of a problem. I chose to look back at Barbaro because he was an example of a horse who had come to Churchill out of the Florida Derby when it had been moved to 5 weeks out and because his works had obviously kept him fit enough for a good run in the Derby.
If you look instead at horses coming out of the Florida Derby last year: Imawildandcrazyguy had 2 works (with the first 3 weeks after Florida) and Scat Daddy and Stormello had 3 works (with the first 2 weeks after Florida).
I don\'t usually read much into works unless a pattern has an obvious gap.
As for Big Brown, he already has some of my money as part of the field in futures pool 2 at 6/1, so I\'m not planning to bet him again at 3/1. I did make a small hedge bet in futures pool 3, on the theory that there were some prices in there you won\'t see again if BB doesn\'t make the gate.
I\'m pretty sure I commented on Bellamy Road prior to his Derby, but if not I certainly did elsewhere. We are going to get into a subjective area that we will have to agree to disagree about, but I hated Bellamy Road in the Derby for other reasons.
He came out of Derby with an injury. So I understand your perspective very well. I just think there\'s more going on in some of these figure fluctuations.
IMHO, the AQU surface he ran his big figure on was about as friendly to speed types as the main track gets. A few horses did close that day, but that was only after the jockeys started gunning some of their horses and setting very fast fractions trying to get to the lead.
I think BR ran a big race in the Wood, but not as good as the figure suggests. To be clear, I think the figure was correct. It was just earned with a loose lead, against a very subpar Wood field, on a day that favored his style. It was a perfect trip for him.
Going into the Derby, he drew an outside post in a race that looked like it was loaded with a ton of speed. So he was going from the best possible trip scenario to the worst possible trip scenario as the hyped favorite. IMO he ran about as well as I expected.
As it was, I also said after the race that given his trip he had run quite well in the Derby (you can compare his trip to the other speeds and see their relative finishes). He also came back to run a figure somewhere in between the Wood and Derby in the Travers (a highly likely outcome IMO because the trip was more neutral).
Again, I do understand your perspective about the toll these big figure performances can take and often agree. I think it\'s less prevalent than some suspect. Maybe I\'m just wrong.
Bit-
Yeah, I understand the point you were making and it\'s certainly a valid one ... just thought that the example of Barbaro could also be used to make a separate point, so I piled on.
Actually, with the benefit of hindsight and the Fla Derby result, it looks like that 6-1 on the field in pool 2 was/is the smartest way to bet BB in the Derby. Good bet and good luck!
Bob
TGJB Wrote:
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> Actually, there are two Street Senses pointing for
> the Derby.
>
> You guys need to take a look at the question of
> 2yo tops and development. Other than Monarchos,
> most win with a number within 6-7 points of their
> 2yo top (especially recently-- SS won by just
> coming back to it, SJ didn\'t even have to run his
> top). What number will it take to win?
>
> Also remember that relatively few horses run new
> tops in the Derby, so if they are not fast enough
> to win going in, they probably won\'t.
But things are changing so much. I used to think that foundation and layoffs coming into the race were very important, enough to toss those who didn\'t meet the minimum requirement. But now we have all sorts of shooters who are bucking tradition in one way or another that I think we have to toss the old rules out the window. We\'ve gotten almost like Europe where they\'ll have half the field lining up for their first race of the year in the Epsom Derby. If we line up 20 maidens for the Derby, a maiden will win the Derby. I just don\'t see where 2yo form has much to do with Derby performance, at least as it pertains to this Derby, where it seems so wide open.
I\'m going to take a beating to say this at this forum, but I\'ll take my chances.
Two things about numbers: 1) The very top horses don\'t run normal numbers or patterns, and 2) Your eyes are better than any number if you know what you\'re looking at.
So if you believe Big Brown is an exceptional horse, you shouldn\'t worry about what number he ran last time. Exceptional horses aren\'t normal horses.
And my eyes told me that Big Brown had an easy time of the Florida Derby, regardless of what a number indicates he should\'ve spent physically.
Believing that Big Brown is head and shoulders above the rest of the contenders, and believing the Florida Derby didn\'t take too big of a toll on him to recoup in 5 weeks, the only things I\'m concerned about regarding him is how he looks when he gets to Churchill. If there\'s no whisperings about his feet and he\'s getting raves for his work from Haskin and others, then I\'d give him a 50-60% chance of winning (the most I think you can give any horse in that calvary charge).
Do you need a bookmaker?
TGJB Wrote:
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> Do you need a bookmaker?
Meaning?
I think he means that those of us that do believe in numbers and patterns appreciate the contributions to the mutuel pools from those that do not believe in the numbers but would rather believe their eyes.
Frank Wrote:
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> I think he means that those of us that do believe
> in numbers and patterns appreciate the
> contributions to the mutuel pools from those that
> do not believe in the numbers but would rather
> believe their eyes.
Rather ironic that in a discussion about believing your eyes, I have to admit that I thought he asked if I need a bookmarker. Bookmarker? ;-)
That said, I\'d take up TGJB if he\'s offering.
Eight Belles,
I knew I ascertained some insight in you. Provided BRB comes in under the conditions that you outlined,I think there are others who would make the probability of a win at least in your mentioned range.
Jerry, I won\'t comment upon Bellamy Road\'s Wood figure and will rest my case upon his Derby and Travers.
However, I\'m sensing that we have a 2008 figure controversy, though this time in the Florida Derby. I\'m sensing a TFig in the negative 2 to 3 range and if that is true, will likely conduct myself in my Derby wagers as if it was less than others may have factored. I do however believe it was a good and legitimate effort on a fair track.
Regarding the \"bad step\" all I can say is I really liked the way he came home once the wiggling was over.
Hopefully this one gets in, because if he does it will pit those that believe he will bounce vs. those that may think he\'s a winner. If he doesn\'t make the race, the presumption has to go to those that figured he would bounce. That said, there are laurels to be won here and I\'m sure there are reasons why many would want to wear them. My reasons are simple, I want to win four straight Derbies and have three successive Runs for the Roses I must win to accomplish that objective.
http://www.jssgallery.org/Paintings/Man_Wearing_Laurels.htm
Eight Belles Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I\'m going to take a beating to say this at this
> forum, but I\'ll take my chances.
>
> Two things about numbers: 1) The very top horses
> don\'t run normal numbers or patterns, and 2) Your
> eyes are better than any number if you know what
> you\'re looking at.
>
> So if you believe Big Brown is an exceptional
> horse, you shouldn\'t worry about what number he
> ran last time. Exceptional horses aren\'t normal
> horses.
>
> And my eyes told me that Big Brown had an easy
> time of the Florida Derby, regardless of what a
> number indicates he should\'ve spent physically.
>
> Believing that Big Brown is head and shoulders
> above the rest of the contenders, and believing
> the Florida Derby didn\'t take too big of a toll on
> him to recoup in 5 weeks, the only things I\'m
> concerned about regarding him is how he looks when
> he gets to Churchill. If there\'s no whisperings
> about his feet and he\'s getting raves for his work
> from Haskin and others, then I\'d give him a 50-60%
> chance of winning (the most I think you can give
> any horse in that calvary charge).
That was very funny. Good luck with your plays.
Keep in mind where he was setting those fast early fractions and going on.
Chuckles,
Please tell me.BRB stands for big richie B or Big Rubber Ball?
What number will it take to win?
Re: T\'Graphers - a little help (116 Views)
Posted by: Flighted Iron (IP Logged)
Date: March 12, 2008 08:55AM
Seems a zero or slightly better might not be a bad number to run in the Derby.
Hypothetically I would prefer next race to be a 2.5 and the race prior to the
Derby a 1.25
Interesting.
the host is on record early about taking a stand against Big Brown. Well jerry, if you really said somewhere on this board that you think it is only 50/50 that Big Brown races in the Derby, that is certainly a bet I would take and would offer you 2-1 on your 50/50 chance.
As several others have posted, the horse hasn\'t reacted yet. He gets 5 weeks rest going into the derby, which has to help off the big race in the Fla Derby.
And to me, a big factor not really discussed on this board much is the lack of quality 3 year olds right now. On the figures, this looks like a comparatively slow crop, especially if you believe \"racehorses are getting faster\". Ok, War Pass is the exception, but there are probably not too many people that are going to expect him to run back to his slop aided negative 3 in the BC Juvenile. His secondary top makes him a contender, but one with somewhat spotty current form. Pyro has one strong figure too, the same sloppy track BC juvenile race that War Pass got his in. You can believe the story about Asmussen creating a postive pattern on the horse and holding back for the Derby, but I wouldn\'t bet the mortgage money on that. His 2\'s and 3\'s make him a marginal contender and a big underlay on derby day, if you ask me. And I am not sure how he runs this Saturday affects his odds at all on Derby day, which is part of the sickening effect of polycrap. If Pyro runs big, those that didn\'t like him before the race will discount it because of the polycrap, if he runs mediocre, it won\'t discourage the people that believe he is being managed to underperform in these preps in hopes of peaking on Derby day.
The third choice, Colonel John, is another underlay and I can say that without even seeing his figure in the SAnta Anita Derby. His top before the SA Derby was a \"5\". What would he have had to run in that race to make you like him at 6-1, knowing that his races were on synthetic surfaces? If he ran a 0 or 1, it would make him a contender, but it would make it a big forward move and he would still be unproven on dirt. If he ran slower than that, he is an underlay in a 20 horse field with unproven dirt form.
Jerry, you talk about the Bellamy Road lesson. I agree, that is a reasonable comparison to Big Brown. I will still say that Bellamy Road\'s Wood Memorial is the best 3 year old prep for the Derby that I have ever seen. However, I will give you another potential \"lesson\" that happened not too long ago, as I remember it vividly because it cost me a ton of money in the pick-4\'s on Derby day. Thorograph was ahead of the curve on Smarty Jones, big time. Smarty was much faster on T-Graph than he was on Beyer, and faster on T-Graph than he was on Ragozin (although the difference was not as great as Beyer, as I remember). I think Beyer even admitted after the Derby that he probably blew several of Smarty\'s prep races, one in the winter at Aqueduct and the Southwest, I believe. Anyway, the seminar that year suggested that Smarty was too fast and coming off a slight regression and was not recommended. As I recall, I think you called it 50% that either Lion Heart or the Cliff\'s Edge would win the race.
Well, we all know what happened there. Your figures on Smarty were right and he ran back to them.
We have a similar situation on Big Brown. Apparently Big Brown\'s Fla Derby is much faster on T-Graph than on either Rags or Beyer. He gets the 5 weeks rest and gets what looks like an inferior field.
He looks legit as the favorite to me. I think that because the other top contenders are flawed IMHO, the choice is to believe Big Brown is this good and bet accordingly or to throw him out and look for a Giacomo type derby, where a long shot can win. And I don\'t mean 8 or 10 to 1. I think the horses that may go off at 30 and 40 to 1 are going to be as appealing as some of the 2nd to 5th choice type horses.
My thoughts exactly Jimbo
IMHO......
When we are talking about \"big figure\" spring 3YOs running in the classics, we are talking about a very small sample of horses typically moving into a roughly run 20 horse race at 10F that also occasionally has pace extremes that eliminate some of the better horses.
The combination of a very easy trip in a prep race and a bad trip in the Derby, getting hurt in the roughly run Derby after getting banged around, a horse not liking the 10F, pace extremes, etc... will all contribute to wildly varying figure performances that have little or nothing to do with whether a horse was knocked out by a fast figure performance. The Derby is a unique race.
If we had a sample of a thousand horses like BB, we could probably make a good estimate of the chances of BB bouncing. However, IMO looking at the sample we do have is highly likely to bias the thinking in a more negative way than is justified because of that uniqueness of the Derby.
To me, each case is different. IMO you have to look at multiple factors when deciding whether a horse can duplicate that big figure.
1. The 2YO top
2. How extreme the figure was relative to sustainable thoroughbred performance
3. How big of a jump the horse made to get there
4. Whether the horse has a history of physical problems or getting knocked out by big efforts
5. The trainer
6. Whether the horse has demonstrated some other clues that he might be special
7. Also, (something that IMO often gets ignored here) whether his fast figure was actually a legitimate performance or the result of uniquely favorable conditions.
On the last point, I think it\'s very clear that BB\'s last effort was both big and legit.
There was no track bias that aided him in his prep like some of the 3YOs that failed to duplicate their figure.
He didn\'t get an easy pace and lead in his prep like some of the others that failed.
He didn\'t earn his big figure on an off track like some of the others that failed.
He was rushed wide from the 12 post and used fairly hard on the first turn to get a clear lead and then set a lively pace all the way. That sets him apart from many of the other 3YOs that failed to duplicate their figures. He actually earned his!
The issues with him are his very gappy record because of prior injuries and the effect a tough race may have had on HIM SPECIFICALLY because of that.
The possibility that he will get used hard prompting the pace of War Pass and get beat by an inferior horse.
The possibility that he doesn\'t have enough foundation and experience to be ready for 10F in the Derby yet.
I don\'t think the comparisons to some of the horses that failed are in any way valid because those were very different horses with very different issues and trips coming in and out of the Derby.
\"And to me, a big factor not really discussed on this board much is the lack of quality 3 year olds right now\"
Jim,
....shhhhh, you should hear some of the slow rats being given a chance by some.
Mike
Exactly. This might be the very year that prior results on synthetics expose a significant analytical twist in 3yo development.
The problem with falling in love with any specific runner in the Ky Derby is this. The Ky Derby isn\'t really a horse race like other horse races. There are factors present here that make conventional handicapping go out the window. Like these, for example:
1) 120,000 fans screaming. Horses haven\'t had to deal with this yet.
2) Bumping, jostling and squeezing. Most horse races are run without incident. This race is street fight.
3) Pre race security. Ask yourself if your favorite horse is trained by a guy who is a \'move up\' trainer. Your trainer might not be able to \'do what he does\' for THIS race. I have to imagine that pre race security is tighter for this race than any other race. I have to imagine the runners will be under some kind of 24 hour watch, but i don\'t know this for sure, so don\'t quote me.
4) mile and a quarter. None of these have ever raced at this long of a distance, so any figure they received was at a shorter distance...which,doesn\'t mean a heck of a lot.
5) Track surface. Will be scraped to resemble a paved highway. If your selction has sore feet, he might not like to be running on pavement.
Im sure there are more \'variables\', if anyone has any, please chime in.
Also, remember this: This race is only the Ky Derby for the owners, trainers and jockeys. Its not the Ky Derby to YOU unless you have a financial stake in one of these runners. This race to YOU, is the 9th race at Churchill Downs on Saturday. YOUR \'Ky Derby\' is any race that you decide to make a large play into. If you normally bet 200 dollars a race and then decide one day to bet 1,000 on an event, that race can qualify as your own personal Ky derby.
Please, remember this also, don\'t take any satisfaction in picking the winner of the Ky Derby. Its not really all that important. What IS important is making money at the windows and not selecting the best looking runner on paper so that you can beat your chest to your friends that \'you had the winner\'.
To me, The Ky Derby presents a rare opportunity to make an incredible score. With 20 runners, the exacta and tri can pay into the thousands or tens of thousands. As good as Big Brown is, he\'ll be the favorite which means if you bet the favorite, you greatly diminish your chances of a life changing score. Remember, you can wager on a 3-1 shot any of the other 364 days of the year, why waste this golden opportunity to bet longshots by getting caught up in \'Derby Hype\' and trying to be like your favorite celebrity on Millionaires Row?
If Point Given can run off the board in the Derby with no visible excuse, than i have to imagine Big Brown can do the same.
Quotemile and a quarter. None of these have ever raced at this long of a distance, so any figure they received was at a shorter distance...which,doesn\'t mean a heck of a lot.
Tomcito excepted of course, as he has won at the distance (and longer).
Fkach-- we seldom agree, but I\'m with you on much of that post, though we may disagree as applied to specific horses.
8Belles- I really don\'t think it would be too good for the long term image of my company if I started booking bets. Too bad, beacuse it sounds like I would be booking a lot of horses coming off visually impressive lifetime tops, which means they\'ll be short, and underlays. Yes, sometimes they win. But the Derby alone has produced a long list of that kind of horse going down at relatively short odds.
Jimbo-- I\'m not going to bet on what Dutrow will do, but I think 50/50 is about right. The over/under for starts this one makes the rest of the year is 2 (which is how many Bellamy Road made).
As for SJ, I still think it was right to bet against him as the favorite, which is different than not liking him. But he was MUCH better going in than BB-- no history of unsoundness, lots of big numbers, strong 2yo tops (plural, including a zero, I think), no bad step/major BI in his final prep. The only plus BB has is Dutrow, and that could end up not being one, depending on what goes on at CD Derby weekend.
Again, what follows does not necessarily represent what my position will be going into the Derby. But in the last futures pool I took small positions on Smooth Air and Visionaire (if I knew he would draw post 11 in the BG I would have waited), and a decent one on War Pass, This was all based on the idea that there is a good chance that BB won\'t make the race, and that I would still be okay with those plays if he does. I think the price on WP is nuts-- I don\'t even have to like him to bet him at that price (14-1).
Hey JB
I got down on SA at 193-1 in Pool 2, you must have liked that last number, what did he jump 2pts?
miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Rich,
>
>
> If he pairs his top, he\'s much less than 3-1 to
> win and I would take that for what I could beg,
> borrow or steal. Who could possibly beat him,
> except maybe Pyro, if he pairs?
>
>
> Mike
Mike,
I guess his point is that its less than 5-1 for that to even happen, so taking 3-1 on it is short.
Eight Belles Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> TGJB Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Do you need a bookmaker?
>
> Meaning?
Uh...your nuts?? And he\'ll be happy to take your money??
P-Dub Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Eight Belles Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > TGJB Wrote:
> >
> --------------------------------------------------
>
> > -----
> > > Do you need a bookmaker?
> >
> > Meaning?
>
>
> Uh...your nuts?? And he\'ll be happy to take your
> money??
And I hope you have a very nice day as well.
imallin Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>> Please, remember this also, don\'t take any
> satisfaction is picking the winner of the Ky
> Derby. Its not really all that important.
Except to Chuckles, King of the Redboarders.
C\'mon Belles, lighten up.
>Fkach-- we seldom agree, but I\'m with you on much of that post, though we may disagree as applied to specific horses<
Maybe we should both reconsider. ;-)
I try to learn things from everyone.
There\'s no question I have a much better feel for how horses typically develop now than I did a few years ago. I may read things differently sometimes because I focus a lot of attention on things other than final time figures, but you and others here have filled some valuable gaps for me.
First we agree, now you are coming out with a \"Race Shapes\" product.
What\'s next? ;-)
\"Jimbo-- I\'m not going to bet on what Dutrow will do, but I think 50/50 is about right. The over/under for starts this one makes the rest of the year is 2 (which is how many Bellamy Road made)\".
JB,
Maybe, but don\'t bet too much on it. Connections said BB worked \"SUPER\" this morning.Talk of his unsoundness is greatly exaggerated according to someone close to this horse \"his feet, thats it, and right now it\'s under control\".
If he gets there healthy(agree, still a big if, even for the healthy ones), he\'ll be a handful.
Surprised you doubt the peerless Tricky, he\'ll do what he did winning in Dubai, New York, Florida, Keeneland. Cant you hear Tricky, Yeah man, wow man, everthings great man. Hormanship, a joke!
Mike
Hmmm,
So BJB was back to work in the requisite 2 weeks huh? And threw a five furlong move in line with his previous training track efforts?
Eight Belles has certainly got his checklist handy.
2007-Street Sense-1st
2006-Sinister Minister-Also Ran
2005-Afleet Alex-3rd
2004-Smarty Jones-1st
2003-Funny Cide-1st
2002-War Emblem-1st
2001-Point Given/Monarchos Box
2000-Anees-Also Ran
1999-Menifee-2nd
1998-Indian Charlie-3rd
1997-Captain Bodgit-2nd
1996-Cavonnier-2nd
1995-Jumron-4th
1994-Southern Rhythm-Also Ran
1993-Sea Hero-1st
1992-Lil E. Tee-1st
1991-Strike the Gold-1st
1990-Summer Squall-2nd
1989-Easy Goer-2nd
1988-Forty Niner-2nd
(20)-7-6-2
Since I found this board (8)-4-0-1
miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> \"Jimbo-- I\'m not going to bet on what Dutrow will
> do, but I think 50/50 is about right. The
> over/under for starts this one makes the rest of
> the year is 2 (which is how many Bellamy Road
> made)\".
>
> JB,
>
> Maybe, but don\'t bet too much on it. Connections
> said BB worked \"SUPER\" this morning.Talk of his
> unsoundness is greatly exaggerated according to
> someone close to this horse \"his feet, thats it,
> and right now it\'s under control\".
>
> If he gets there healthy(agree, still a big if,
> even for the healthy ones), he\'ll be a handful.
>
> Surprised you doubt the peerless Tricky, he\'ll do
> what he did winning in Dubai, New York, Florida,
> Keeneland. Cant you hear Tricky, Yeah man, wow
> man, everthings great man. Hormanship, a joke!
>
>
> Mike
>Maybe, but don\'t bet too much on it. Connections said BB worked \"SUPER\" this morning.Talk of his unsoundness is greatly exaggerated according to someone close to this horse \"his feet, thats it, and right now it\'s under control\".<
The fact that he made it back to the track on schedule is a good sign.
Fkach,
This horse is one that the connections are holding their breath with. There is a minor, minor chance that he will be sold before the derby. There has been great debate about selling and funny money is on the table.If he runs and wins the derby,I\'d say it\'s 95%+, he\'ll be sold.
Mike
...And retired shortly after
BitPlayer Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Work pattern: Based on the patterns I\'m used to
> seeing, I wouldn\'t expect a work until two weeks
> after a race, which would mean this coming weekend.
Good call, Bit. Just got this from DRF StableMail:
Horse name Big Brown
Activity type Workout
Activity date 04-12-2008
Track Palm Meadows
Surface Dirt
Distance 5 Furlongs
Workout type Handily
Workout time 1:00.60
Track condition Fast