Hey Everyone,
I\'m new to this forum but been buying t-graphs for many many years -- so what\'s the deal with no foreign numbers being included in the advance sheets? How can we get the numbers for the foreign horses? I make my own euopean numbers which are usually very accurate, but I still like to compare with the experts at t-graphs. Any help from anyone would be appreciated. I will also share my foreign numbers with anyone who has a specific question about a horse or a race, just ask me. Thanks,
Dana
that\'s \"european\" numbers not \"euopean\" yeah, i can spell!
As we posted here before, the pre-entries did not include Euro numbers, the data we will post tomorrow will, and we are charging separately for each. I spent a lot of time on our Euro numbers, and I think they are pretty tight.
Well, then, those of us who bought the advance sheets really weren\'t too bright (I guess I could have read over the fine print and realized this before hand!!!).
In a year where one doesn\'t have to be a psychic to predict the Europeans will simply dominate (all right, I AM PSYCHIC and I\'ll tell you all that for free -- the Euros will dominate and Aidan O\'Brien will be crowned kind after Saturday!) going without the Euorpean numbers isn\'t so hot for your average player. But I\'m acting like I already know the results, so what does it matter anyway.
As I said, I make my own Euro numbers and there as good as anyone\'s (proven to me over many years), but it seems that point should have been made a bit clearer to patrons that the Euro numbers would be delayed and not available in the advance sheets -- I mean that\'s like saying were only giving you sheets for half the horses, but, hey, I\'m not complaining, and you guys were very generous to give out past year\'s sheets, I think that\'s a nice touch and will help much with coming up for par figures for BC races! Overall, I have no complaints with your work at all.
Hell, I\'ll probably bet 10K on BC day, so what\'s ANOTHER 25 bucks!
Good luck to all.
Dana, I\'ll bite. What numbers do you have on Hold That Tiger?
TGJB,
Time to review the deletion policy.
What is it you want me to delete???
Jim
I e-mailed you personally. Not sure it\'s right or even welcome by anyone for me to post something like that here. This might not be the proper forum for that. There\'s another message board here I should check out as well, maybe that\'s the one to post stuff like that --
Dana
Jim
I e-mailed you personally. Not sure it\'s right or even welcome by anyone for me to post something like that here. This might not be the proper forum for that. There\'s another message board here I should check out as well, maybe that\'s the one to post stuff like that --
Dana
Why not just post your figs right here? If you\'re right, you can start your own service and make boookooo bucks. LOL.
That\'s pretty funny! You know there is a reason I (and most of you all) pay $25 bucks a pop for what these guys do. I do have a life and a career -- who the hell has that kind of time! What these guys do is well worth it -- don\'t misunderstand me, even for European races, making accurate numbers is not at all hard, it\'s just super time consuming and these guys package the product so nicely and make everything so convenient! The pattern (cycle) is what matters anyway, numbers are just arbitrary -- anyone who tells you otherwise, just doesn\'t get it.
Dana wrote: \"The pattern (cycle) is what matters anyway, numbers are just arbitrary -- anyone who tells you otherwise, just doesn\'t get it.\"
And then Dana was run over by a bunch of hyenas.
I knew you wouldn\'t let that go past. Too bad you\'re not going to Chicago.
Hello Dana, does weight matter on this one?
Going to bet 10k!! thought you didn\'t have a pot to piss in.
Are the ezboard nutters still at it? Haven\'t been there for ages.
I\'ll provide a serious reply, not that I\'m sure your inquiries merit that!
Yes, weight matters tremendously -- it\'s one of the biggest factors in stakes races in my opinion -- at least in calculating the number I think a horse will run today.
Morons, what I meant by numbers don\'t matter is that if you devoted thrograph fans ever check out Ragozin sheets, for example, I know you\'d never do that, you\'ll often find a GREAT disparity in the numbers. How could that be? This is cold exact science -- numbers are infallable. Right?
Take, Sky Mesa, for example he ran a 4 in his last race on t-graphs. I haven\'t seen the Rags yet, but I\'ll bet (figuratively speaking) his number is considerably higher on Rags -- I\'m guesing maybe an 8 or so -- well, my point is everyone can come up with a differnt number for the same horse in the same race -- what matters is how the horse ran that number, was he gasping for air, was the number aided by a bias, did everything go his way? That\'s what I meant. Bull Market ran a 7 on t-graphs in his last race, but I guess Sky Mesa is 3 points better than Bull Market because he ran a 4 -- while Bull Market was pressured every step of the way on the worst part of the track that day and running hard every step and Sky Mesa was finishing about as fast as a top quality trotter would -- this game must be so much easier than I ever thought; why do I do all this work -- the lower the number the better -- oh, ok, thanks for clearing that up for me.
So do you still use Ezboard or you been banned, thought Weight Doesn\'t Matter was your defining moment.
\"Bull Market was pressured every step of the way...\"
Great analysis. Everybody\'s a moron. I guess there won\'t be any pressure on Bull Market Saturday, huh? Bull Market will probably be able to go nice and easy with these and won\'t be pressed at all. Looks like your average no-pressure 14 horse field to me.
So which will it be Saturday, he improves because he faces no pressure or he improves because he faces a lot of pressure?
Maybe you should publish your figures. Instead of single digits you could say 7-but-better-than-Sky-Mesa\'s-4. Looks like easy money. HP
Dana wrote: \"numbers are infallable. Right?\"
He really did.
\"Yes, weight matters tremendously -- it\'s one of the biggest factors in stakes races in my opinion -- at least in calculating the number I think a horse will run today.\"
Yeah. Today\'s weight is important. Yesterday\'s weight is meaningless.
And then Dana was run over by a turtle who had a good pattern.
A possible contender in a tough race-A potential improving 3 year old who has paired up tops in his previous 4 races before the QEII. A number for his last would have been very useful. Did he regress or take a move forward? I waited to get the data til today so I could have all the euro numbers. If you have the number for the race can you post-it please.
Good Luck to all.
phil
phil,
that race is a real question mark. the ragozin folks feel he regressed in that race; you can see their euro numbers for free on their web site. when i originally looked at the race i too thought he regressed. i had his best number coming in the race before that (9/7 Irish Champion Stakes) at a 2+, previously he had also worked down to a 2+ at Epsom on June 8th. anyway i rated his race about a 5\" -- which is a regression from my point of view as well. then i viewed the video (Santa Anita\'s site has breeder\'s cup videos you can view for free) and I thought that race might not be such a regression after all, maybe another 2+ or a 3- at the worst. the horse that beat him has a much quicker turn of foot and he just got the jump on him in a race shorter than Hawk Wing really wants to run anyway, the race was over before hawk Wing got going -- he\'s a real stayer, solid late running type, but not too quick -- that race might even set him up better for the classic building some more speed into him and he has 1st lasix too. my biggest concern with him is that the track might come up sloppy and he\'s not quite as fast as the top american horses, and certainly thusfar lacking in the early speed department -- i think he\'s a contender, but there are a lot of variables at this point. my numbers on him are as follows 2 year old 13+ 9\" 6+ 4\" three year old 3+ 2+ 4\"h? 2+ 5\" (the race in question). i\'m sure he\'ll run his best race and he loves 1 1/4 yet the questions remain -- hope this helps
Philip Mandl wrote:
>
> A possible contender in a tough race-A potential improving 3
> year old who has paired up tops in his previous 4 races
> before the QEII. A number for his last would have been very
> useful. Did he regress or take a move forward? I waited to
> get the data til today so I could have all the euro numbers.
> If you have the number for the race can you post-it please.
> Good Luck to all.
> phil
JB is out of town attending the BC but he tells me that he made figures only for those horses he felt more certain about. His educated guess is that Hawk Wing\'s last is about at the same level as he has been running preceding that--3\'s and change.
My methodology for making Euro #s is very similar to JBs.
I\'ve got Hawk Wing going back about 1/2 point in the QEII. He hasn\'t developed very much since his race in the 2000 Guineas.