TGJB,
I\'m not sure if it\'s possible, but if you could provide any data at all on how horses with no dirt experience (all synthetic or synthetic and turf experience) are doing on dirt first time out I think a lot of your customers would appreciate it (actual any data would be helpful). I can\'t be the only one that\'s struggling with how to deal with the California 3YOs in the Derby.
My original intention was to simply toss them all out and hope for the best - figuring it wasn\'t too likely there would be a lot of overlays among them.
However, yesterday, horses like Heatseeker and Zenyatta who I considered very vulnerable to being out of the exotics both ran big races. I feel a lot less comfortable with that strategy now. ;-)
fkach –
The weekend\'s events seem to have narrowed your problem, at least as it relates to this year\'s Derby, to Colonel John (although Bob Black Jack is still a possibility). Since he was bet heavily in the futures pool and is in the top 3 on most pundits\' lists of Derby contenders, you\'re not going to get any value from including Colonel John. You\'ve got to either stick to your guns and toss him or find your value elsewhere.
On the side of tossing him:
I note that both Zenyatta and Heatseeker got wide trips Saturday at Oaklawn, thus keeping them away from potentially problematic kickback. That strategy may not be viable for a closer in a 20-horse field.
Winstar sent Colonel John to California. They must have thought that synthetics would suit him.
Gomez and Anderson chose to ride Court Vision on Saturday rather than stay on Colonel John. (I\'m not particularly fond of this argument. I think the choice may have related to other mounts lined up at the Big A on Saturday and Gomez\'s transition back to the East for the summer. Also, Winstar may also have preferred to give Colonel John back to Nakatani rather than find a new rider for Court Vision.)
If you are looking for the fastest dirt horse, it\'s most efficient to test the candidates on dirt. To explain using an analogy: if you were looking for fast human sprinters, you wouldn\'t measure them by having them compete in the long jump. Admittedly, the fastest guy would probably rate high in the long jump, and (since the athletic ability required is similar) might well be the best long jumper, but you\'d rather compare them by having them run the hundred.
On the flip side:
I still hypothesize (without meaningful data to support my hypothesis) that the TG scale may be a bit narrower on synthetics than it is on dirt, so that when top horses move from synthetic to dirt (and they handle the move) their top figs improve. Conversely, when they move from dirt to synthetics, they are unlikely to reproduce their dirt tops (even when they handle the move). If my hypothesis is right, then in preparing the statistics you are asking for, it might alter the outcome if TG were to throw claimers in with the stakes and allowance horses.
Thanks for the thoughts. Lots of good points.
I also lean towards the possibility that the scale may be narrower on synthetics relative to dirt, but I doubt it\'s as severe as on turf. That would make for difficult comparisons from time to time if true.
I\'m wondering if anyone has had success using the TGI #s when projecting between dirt & poly. I tried some races on Saturday, projecting the horse\'s #s being better or worse based on the sire\'s TGI. I didn\'t have much success for the limited races I played, but the sample wasn\'t statistically valid.
I don\'t think you will have much success in directly applying the TGI (taking a 2 point difference in TGI and adding it to a horse\'s top, etc.). I use it in terms of figures to like the surface, or does not-- great example last weekend was Proud Spell in the Ashland. Proud Citizen\'s synth runners have been terrible, so I threw PS out-- and managed not to cash anyway, which took some work.
I believe a great angle on Poly is discount/toss favored horses that earned their top figs on dirt. But, I still believe its finding a needle in a haystack. The only predictability is chaos, and I\'m not going wager wishing, hoping and praying.
The Bluegrass will be a fun race to watch, but its not gonna prove much. Colonel John lost Gomez to Court Vision? Whodofthunkit!
TGJB Wrote:
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> I don\'t think you will have much success in
> directly applying the TGI (taking a 2 point
> difference in TGI and adding it to a horse\'s top,
> etc.). I use it in terms of figures to like the
> surface, or does not-- great example last weekend
> was Proud Spell in the Ashland. Proud Citizen\'s
> synth runners have been terrible, so I threw PS
> out-- and managed not to cash anyway, which took
> some work.
Chuck,
FYI, Ron Anderson is a Raggie.Maybe Gomez felt/sensed something when he rode Col John? Hard to understand the selection.Don\'t know if he\'ll dirt but Col John looked like a long striding stayer on Saturday.
Mike
I\'ve seen drunks run a straighter line than Bob Black Jack did Saturday.......
I agree with you completely re: Col John.
Visually he seemed not to like the track for most of the race. He was on top of it, not digging in. He leveled off only at the very end and then he was catching tiring horses.
I toss the horses he beat completely out of the Derby because they were tiring and leave him in, big time. Also and maybe more importantly, he is bred for the dirt. I am going to assume he ran his best on poly, but it wasn\'t the best you will see on the dirt.
As for an earlier post about sending him to CA because they felt he might like poly better, I don\'t think it\'s true. If he were mine I would have sent him to a poly environment if I believed there was any truth in the fact it was easier on horses. I would have done it to preserve him for the big dance.
>I\'ve seen drunks run a straighter line than Bob Black Jack did Saturday.......<
You obviously never saw me on a Saturday night 25 years ago.
BBJ was doing his cha cha through the stretch with my money on him. :-(
Re: COLONEL JOHN
I don\'t have the data to support, so I\'m going on visual experience. Seems as if the TIZNOW offspring have done very well on the poly/synthethic tracks. This is obvious to anyone following the game closely.
What may not be as obvious is that although TIZNOW was quite successful negotiating 1 1/4 in Grade 1 company, his offspring appear to prefer it shorter. WELL ARMED may be one example to note in his transistion to dirt. No excuse to not hold second other than not being able to get the distance.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
MO,
It\'s the poly/synthetic \"swerve\". A different level of exhaustion seems to hit horses the farther they run on synthetics/poly.I am told that a horse gets fitter on synthetics.This could mean that dirt to synthetic runners are at a conditioning disadvantage first time over it.It may also follow that horses coming from synthetics/poly,that can handle dirt, have a conditioning edge.
Time will tell and the stat brainiacs are already compiling the data on this stuff.
Mike
Alm,
Co-owner of Win Star, Bill Casner loves synthetics and credits the surface for the success/health of his horse.Col John is the only Cali horse that appears to be a Derby threat but Gomez taking off this one for a slow plodder(Court Vision) is very strange.
I think I now know why Robby Alvarado bailed on Dennis of Cork. He must have known/sensed something. Every jockey on the planet wants to win the derby and taking off a horse with a legit shot seems unimaginable.
Mike
i\'ve been wondering myself recently if more horses are boring -in and boring-out these days or if i\'m just noticing it more - along with more horses which seemingly appear to be all over the place in the lane on the synth/poly tracks .
If memory serves, there was a LOT of \"synthetic swerve\" in last year\'s Blue Grass. Street Sense tended to swerve a lot on poly and not so much on dirt
I appreciate the insight re: Gomez. He seems to make good choices, for sure. However, isn\'t it possible that he was only thinking he had a better shot at a purse in NYC, as opposed to the SoCal race. Personally, I thought Court Vision had a better shot in the Wood than Col John had in the SA Derby. Maybe Garrett was as wrong as I was.
As for the previous post re: Tiznow offspring...a sire can pass along the ability to negotiate different surfaces, for sure, as this is tied into a foal\'s physiology, but distance ability comes from a combination of factors that are influenced mostly by the broodmare (and her genetic contribution.) That\'s why the Phipps family used to exclusively breed mares that won at 9 furlongs and above.
Col. John may or may not handle the transition to dirt, but I think he will handle the distance of the Derby.
I hate to belabor this point, but it is consistent with what you are observing in horses weaving along the poly tracks: the Equix biomechanic guys measure all parts of a horse. Grads of their program have observed that the length of the hind tibia influences horses\' ability to run on different surfaces.
To put it in the most basic terms: the longer the tibia the less likely a horse can handle grass, slop (and probably poly tracks.) If forces them to wobble in the hind end. This may in fact be what you are seeing when they weave along on poly tracks.
Shorter tibias are better on grass, slop and possibly poly. Longer tibias on dirt.
Miff once noted that grass horses are slower on dirt. He\'s probably right, if you accept the tibia analysis. They don\'t have the same length hind leg (regardless of the fact they have superior traction on grass, etc.) so they don\'t have the same spring from behind and probably by extension the same speed as a dirt horse with longer tibias.
I didn\'t bet on Col John in the SA Derby, so my observations of how he handled the track are unbiased. He seemed not to like it, traveling above the surface for most of the race. Only at the end, in the final 1/8th did he level off, drop his head, and fire. He caught tiring horses. If he takes to the dirt, my guess is he moves up several lengths on the transition in the KY Derby.
Santa Anita and Hollywood are running on \'cushion\' track, although Santa Anita\'s current surface is some combination of Pro Ride, cushion and mystery ingredients. Santa Anita\'s surface plays much like a regular dirt surface to my eye. Polytrack (Del Mar, Keeneland) are completely different surfaces. The way i like to handicap this transition to dirt is that good horses are good horses and run on anything. If a quality horse throws in a clunker at Del Mar or Keeneland, i just put a line thru it and go back to other factors to determine if i think this animal is going to run a big race in his next start. If a horse runs a clunker on cushion, i\'d be a little more concerned that there\'s something inherently wrong with the horse, as opposed to him not liking cushion.
Also, i think you need to let price be your guide. If Colonel John was 4-1 on Derby day, you might want to toss him and say he\'s a synthetic performer. If he\'s 12-1, you might want to swing the bat and hope he moves UP on dirt.
To answer a few more on this thread, the Bob Black Jack \'weave\' had to do with the jockey being frightened by the unusual stride of Bob Black Jack. BBJ is an accident waiting to happen, he\'s built like a cheap claimer.
I was salivating at the thought of betting Zenyatta. She was WAY more impressive visually than her Beyer figs indicated. She won like a horse with 110 Beyers, yet her numbers were all under a hundred, that\'s why she paid 5 and change instead of being 3-5 like she should have been. Getting 6 lbs from GP didn\'t hurt either.
My synthetic rule of thumb is that all horses will run to their abilities on dirt, but some won\'t like synthetic as opposed to horses who run lights out on synthetic and can\'t handle dirt.
If Colonel John bombs and runs up the track in the Derby, i believe it will be more of a product of the California horses stinking as opposed to the california horses being good and CJ just not \'liking\' dirt for one reason or another.
Also, i dont think there\'s a hard and fast rule of how to determine if a synthetic performer will translate to dirt...each horse is different, you need to watch how each horse \'runs\' on tape to see if you can figure it out.
Last year, Zayat stables took their runners OUT of Del Mar because the nature of the track \'took their speed away\'. Those runners had very quick legs and strides and their quickness was taken away by polytrack. The horses who won at Del Mar were \'stayers\' who had the ability to gallop at a steady rate and just hold their ground, while the quick types of Zayat burned themselves out.
Also, recently at Santa Anita, speed isn\'t all that great. If you win wire to wire or win pressing a fast pace, you\'re good, especially in a route race.
>I was salivating at the thought of betting Zenyatta. She was WAY more impressive visually than her Beyer figs indicated. She won like a horse with 110 Beyers, yet her numbers were all under a hundred, that\'s why she paid 5 and change instead of being 3-5 like she should have been. Getting 6 lbs from GP didn\'t hurt either. <
I agree with this part, but I have to think that switching to dirt for the first time is a negative \"in general\".
It may be possible to identify a subset of horses in that category based on visual observation, pedigree, work outs on dirt etc... that will run equally well or even better on dirt first time just as it is possible to do so with other surface switches. But without that specific knowledge about a horse, IMO you almost have to assume the added question mark is a negative. I would have discounted Zenyatta\'s chances in that race somewhat had I played the race.
I\'m not sure its a negative only because the synthetic surfaces are supposedly \'deeper\' and more tiring, which means horses coming to dirt will be more \'fit\' when they race on the lighter \'paved\' surface. But, you\'re right, its all a guessing game, that\'s why you need to let price be your guide.
It\'s definitely a guessing game for me because I do very little handicapping outside of NY other than major stakes. So I have much less experience to draw on than other people.
thanks for bringing that aspect of bio-mechanics up again - it\'s beginning to sink in . i can relate it in some way to pocket billiards when stroking the ball from the elbow down to the forearm area as opposed to from the shoulder increases accuracy immensely .
if these horse are having difficulty controlling sway (even when not fatigued ),will breeders now attempt to breed horses more appropriately for the new synth surfaces ( with a shorter tibia) to increase traction and performance .
perhaps the early numbers for breakdowns on poly don\'t jump off the paper in support of that surface - as promised , due to imo this \"unforeseen\" issue as one possible reason ...
My sense is that by winning out in the West, Colonel John is going to get some significant Kentucky Derby play.
My general impression of Poly is that it brings all of the horses closer together. It takes away from a good horse and it gives what it takes to an inferior horse. The more a horse trains and races on it the better he usually fairs.
Last year in the Derby, we didn\'t have horses entered with their entire past performances exclusive to Poly like we have this year. The significant Poly specialists were Dominican and Zanjero. They had a nice duel among themselves but were never a threat to factor in the exotics. They also went off at nice odds.
This year, the predominant Poly horse is going to be Colonel John and perhaps the Bluegrass winner. John could go off in the 8-1 range. I have to say for my Derby bet, I\'d much prefer a horse underperforming on Poly than a horse excelling upon it.
They won\'t be running on Poly in that Derby.
Uncle Buck Wrote:
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> If memory serves, there was a LOT of \"synthetic
> swerve\" in last year\'s Blue Grass. Street Sense
> tended to swerve a lot on poly and not so much on
> dirt
Chuckles_the_Clown2 Wrote:
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> My sense is that by winning out in the West,
> Colonel John is going to get some significant
> Kentucky Derby play.
Brilliant. A horse never running worse than second, wins the Santa Anita Derby, getting significant Kentucky Derby Play. Who woulda thunk??
>
> My general impression of Poly is that it brings
> all of the horses closer together. It takes away
> from a good horse and it gives what it takes to an
> inferior horse. The more a horse trains and races
> on it the better he usually fairs.
Agreed. But Del Mar aint running right now, last race there was last September when these horses were 2 YOs. Keeneland runs a 2 week meet. Why would Polytrack have any significance with regards to this year\'s Derby?? Only 1 major Derby prep will be run over Poly (this week\'s Blue Grass).
>
> Last year in the Derby, we didn\'t have horses
> entered with their entire past performances
> exclusive to Poly like we have this year. The
> significant Poly specialists were Dominican and
> Zanjero. They had a nice duel among themselves but
> were never a threat to factor in the exotics. They
> also went off at nice odds.
Please tell us which horses have raced exclusively on Poly. Colonel John?? He\'s run over Cushion Track. Despite being a synthetic surface, Cushion is nothing like Poly.
>
> This year, the predominant Poly horse is going to
> be Colonel John and perhaps the Bluegrass winner.
> John could go off in the 8-1 range. I have to say
> for my Derby bet, I\'d much prefer a horse
> underperforming on Poly than a horse excelling
> upon it.
Please note the races where Colonel John has raced over Poly.
>
> They won\'t be running on Poly in that Derby.
Again, thanks for informing us. We had no idea.
Why do some of you insist on treating Cushion Track the same as Polytrack?? The 2 surfaces are not the same. I understand many prefer handicapping dirt surfaces, many have a profound dislike for any synthetic surface. However,to dismiss a horse specifically because he\'s raced over \"synthetic\" surfaces is silly. Tiago, Zenyatta, Heatseeker, Sierra Sunset are just a few who have shipped from California to run very well over a dirt surface.
Are you telling me that the races run over the polytrack surfaces at Keeneland and Del Mar resemble the racing at HP, SA, and the other Cushion/Tapeta tracks?? Horses have won on the lead, stalking, and closing over Cushion/Tapeta surfaces. Can you say that about Poly?? Can you compare the running styles, or fractional times between these surfaces?? No. Completely different.
Despite there being a healthy dose of East Coast bias around these parts (I\'m referring to posters, not JB), to dismiss California horses due to the surface is premature. Well meant California horses have done well in the Derby. And before you cherry pick the ones that haven\'t, I can do the same for the hyped up horses from the East.
Colonel John has done nothing wrong. Never worse than second if memory serves me. No, he won\'t be a bomb like Giacomo ( a California based Derby winning horse). But to summarily dismiss him, based solely on the fact he\'s raced over Cushion Track, is ridiculous. Keep him out of the exotics at your own risk.
Hi Paul,
One of the reasons that Cali synthetic runners are being dismissed is because they had slow figs compared to their rivals when shipping.I mentioned that I felt some of the runners you show, esp Col John and Zenyatta, looked faster than the figs they were given. They are outrunning their figs which leads me to believe that you have to look closely at synthetic Cali figs.I also think there may be a better bottom in horses running on syn/poly and if the horse can handle the switch to dirt, well...
I do have data which shows that synthetic is also like turf and well handled by many turf runners(as is poly). Speed is NOT nearly as good on synt as it was on the former dirt tracks. In fact speed is not much better on synthetics than on poly, at least thats what the stats show and what I generally see.
Col John is a very nice horse, not real fast yet but a stayer for sure.Assuming good health for Pyro and Big Brown, I think Col John is a distant third best if he dirts. Good Luck.
Mike
P.S. Giacomo was a slow rat, derby winner or not and I would not take credit for him being from the west coast,Paul, if I were you, hee hee!
Interesting.....
Well, a key handicapping factor for every Derby is who is working out/handling the CD surface well, and it likely will be again this year.
This has been a great series of posts. Very helpful.
My point about Col John is that he may not be running his best on the syn track. He may be a very good horse who is just getting the job done under conditions he does not prefer.
We will see.
MO Wrote:
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> Interesting.....
>
> Well, a key handicapping factor for every Derby is
> who is working out/handling the CD surface well,
> and it likely will be again this year.
MO,
Good point MO. I think Colonel John will take to it. No evidence, just an opinion. Don\'t know what JB gave him for the SA Derby, but my guess is that he\'s still slower than several. Could make his price higher than it should, but who knows. I know one thing.....Big Brown won\'t be on my tickets. Too fast Derby prep, little foundation.....aren\'t these the type of horses - favotites with issues - that we as handicappers love to bet against?? And if they do, we just look for another opportunity?? This is one of Chuckles\' favorite \"tenets\".
Miff wrote:
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\"Hi Paul,
One of the reasons that Cali synthetic runners are being dismissed is because they had slow figs compared to their rivals when shipping.I mentioned that I felt some of the runners you show, esp Col John and Zenyatta, looked faster than the figs they were given. They are outrunning their figs which leads me to believe that you have to look closely at synthetic Cali figs.I also think there may be a better bottom in horses running on syn/poly and if the horse can handle the switch to dirt, well...
I do have data which shows that synthetic is also like turf and well handled by many turf runners(as is poly). Speed is NOT nearly as good on synt as it was on the former dirt tracks. In fact speed is not much better on synthetics than on poly, at least thats what the stats show and what I generally see.
Col John is a very nice horse, not real fast yet but a stayer for sure.Assuming good health for Pyro and Big Brown, I think Col John is a distant third best if he dirts. Good Luck.
Mike
P.S. Giacomo was a slow rat, derby winner or not and I would not take credit for him being from the west coast,Paul, if I were you, hee hee!\"
Mike,
Just from memeory, but it seems like Cal horses can at times outrun their numbers when shipping out. Also, many Nor Cal horses have wired the field on the Tapeta. So have Cushion Track runners. I\'m thinking just like a dirt track, the track can be maintenanced in a way that a certain running style can be advantageous. I just think that Cushion/Tapeta is a much fairer surface than Poly. I guess my main point is that it is indeed a 4th surface (dirt, turf, Poly) and people referring to it as Poly are just plain wrong.
Pyro/Big Brown/Colonel John:
You get the first 2, I\'ll take Colonel John. Best finish of those 3 gets a beverage from the other whenever I make my first trip to Saratoga.
Got a little Chihuahua puppy from a resuce group last December. I tell her she looks like a rat. I still love her. Besides...Giacomo is my father\'s middle name. Slow rat or not, he paid a nice mutuel..no?? Hey, Uncle Buck and I have to stand up for our West Coast hosses......we\'ll take the \"slow rat\" if he wins the Derby. You have written this description many times......I still get a chuckle (no pun intended) every time. Thanks for your reply.