I think yesterday pretty much signaled it is over.
We probably will not be hearing Donna Barton is riding his stable pony like we kept hearing with Bob Baffert on NBC yesterday. T Pletch at least will still show up at his barn and work hard.
He just might find only half the usual amount of horses and help there when he arrives. These last two weeks were big days. Run the best you got kinda days.
T Pletch and Co. laid a major egg. The signs were there last summer when the 2YOs were so bad. But this bad this quick demands major day rate cuts or drops in class or the vans will be lining up.
Hard work will keep him treading water. At least he will not end up like Baffert who I understand is on this weeks episode of \"Without a Trace\"
But if he ever does at least people will be out looking................
When Congress got \"involved\", it got the abusers in Thoroughbred Racing to re-examine their priorities. Plech has slipped due to behavior modification. He knew full well many considered him Target Number One.
If he plays fair, he\'ll be a decent trainer, but thats all he ever was. I can\'t believe others believed otherwise.
Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I think yesterday pretty much signaled it is
> over.
>
> We probably will not be hearing Donna Barton is
> riding his stable pony like we kept hearing with
> Bob Baffert on NBC yesterday. T Pletch at least
> will still show up at his barn and work hard.
>
> He just might find only half the usual amount of
> horses and help there when he arrives. These last
> two weeks were big days. Run the best you got
> kinda days.
>
> T Pletch and Co. laid a major egg. The signs were
> there last summer when the 2YOs were so bad. But
> this bad this quick demands major day rate cuts or
> drops in class or the vans will be lining up.
>
> Hard work will keep him treading water. At least
> he will not end up like Baffert who I understand
> is on this weeks episode of \"Without a Trace\"
>
> But if he ever does at least people will be out
> looking................
Look I\'m not predicting a Bear Stearns type run on the bank but stall space in the Pletcher barns are starting to looking like So Fla Condos.
Either empty or slums.
Also there is no truth to the rumor that yesterday the Alfred E. Neumann bobblehead doll (Battaglia) who works for NBC wanted to scream out.
\"Bob (Baffert) I am wearing your underwear\".
I don\'t think it has to do with the Congressional hearing (there were stirrings well before that), but it does look like something is afoot. Pletcher\'s horses have not been running as well (and bouncing when they do, as I found out the hard way with Texas Wildcatter), Frankel has become human, and O\'Neill can\'t get arrested (so to speak) in California. From my point of view, I\'m not seeing nearly as many giant figures.
Meanwhile, Levine, Dutrow and Contessa continue to get big jump-ups.
All of which (among many other things) raises some questions about Big Brown in the Derby.
Texas Wildcatter was simply dreadful. I have a much more limited view on \"bouncing\" than people here (thinking many are trip related issues), but this was certainly a good candidate. He was so dreadful something has to be amiss. Either that, or carrying me on his back 2 races in a row was simply too much. ;-) If he would have won or finished second (I keyed him and Tale of Ekati primarily with each other and also over Court Vision) I would be in a much better mood today.
Besides the 3 trainers you mentioned that are still moving horses up, there are a few newer and lower profile trainers that have been doing the same thing in NY. So whatever was going on is still widespread. Just the names are changing (as has been the case in the past).
At this time of year, I\'m rating these horses with TFigs, as I always do. I didn\'t cash that race either. I should have, but thats the way it goes.
I don\'t know what you gave Big Brown, but I thought it was a big effort. Most visually impressive effort I\'ve seen since Sinister Minister\'s Bluegrass/Afleet Alex\'s Ark. (Conceding that some efforts on the old Keeneland were ethereal.)
The pace of the Derby is getting interesting, especially if Bob Black Jack goes. That said, I think Big Brown quick footed in the Fladerby because he had to. Both the horrid post and the earnings requirement made him scoot. I think he can rate. Big Brown figures to be the favorite. Beating him might make very big balloons,but he sure looked impressive to me.
TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I don\'t think it has to do with the Congressional
> hearing (there were stirrings well before that),
> but it does look like something is afoot.
> Pletcher\'s horses have not been running as well
> (and bouncing when they do, as I found out the
> hard way with Texas Wildcatter), Frankel has
> become human, and O\'Neill can\'t get arrested (so
> to speak) in California. From my point of view,
> I\'m not seeing nearly as many giant figures.
>
> Meanwhile, Levine, Dutrow and Contessa continue to
> get big jump-ups.
>
> All of which (among many other things) raises some
> questions about Big Brown in the Derby.
Any chance he ran the 0 because he loved the slop and Giant Moon ran a 27 because he hated it. It goes on and on in the battle, to understand this game. Jerry said that TW had a 50/50 chance to pair. Based on what? TW was off a 4 point top that he ran in the slop, big deal! He came into the race 4 points better than anything he had ever run. IMO all a sheet does is let us no if the horse fits in a race. I truely believe their is no way in telling what a horse is going to do based on the sheet, it is a total guess. I can not think of any single thing that is more taxing on the brain then horse racing. I believe all players are nuts in one way or another, to keep playing, but I guess it is the challege of the sport that brings us back for more!
TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I don\'t think it has to do with the Congressional
> hearing (there were stirrings well before that),
> but it does look like something is afoot.
> Pletcher\'s horses have not been running as well
> (and bouncing when they do, as I found out the
> hard way with Texas Wildcatter), Frankel has
> become human, and O\'Neill can\'t get arrested (so
> to speak) in California. From my point of view,
> I\'m not seeing nearly as many giant figures.
>
> Meanwhile, Levine, Dutrow and Contessa continue to
> get big jump-ups.
>
> All of which (among many other things) raises some
> questions about Big Brown in the Derby.
Jerry,
re TW - you put too much emphasis on the slop fig, and the horse stopped like he was shot in that race, thus increasing the chance of a bounce.
just one guy\'s opinion.
CTC -
I think its a close question whether Bob Black Jack has the graded earnings to get in. Depending on who you include as still Derby-intended, he\'s pretty near the bubble, and there\'s still quite a bit of money up for grabs in the Arkansas Derby, Blue Grass, and Lexington. Even the Holy Bull might move someone into the top 20.
Further, assuming (based on the close finishes in the Wood and SA Derby and the winner\'s rail trip in the Illinois Derby) that none of yesterday\'s races came up very fast figure-wise, I\'d think most people who have the earnings are going to take a shot. Maybe even a filly or two.
>Any chance he ran the 0 because he loved the slop and Giant Moon ran a 27 because he hated it<
IMO off tracks are the source of a lot of figures that don\'t get duplicated, but Texas Wildcatter was a steadily improving horse that was working like he was set for a lifetime peak just prior to the Gotham. In addition, there was nothing easy about his trip in the Gotham. He made a somewhat premature 3W brush to the lead in a lively paced race and got nailed late by a last to first horse with a good trip.
Could he be a slop freak?
Possibly.
However, I think we learned less than nothing about that yesterday. Had he run a figure in the range of his effort prior to the Gotham it would be easier to conclude he simply liked the slop. However, he ran a terrible race. That says that something is wrong with him.
First of all, I have found that inner track \"slop\" isn\'t a whole lot different than inner track fast. And I don\'t think he was losing ground to anyone but Visionaire in the stretch, by memory.
But if you think that he just liked slop, wouldn\'t that effort be less taxing, and the most likely result be just going back to his previous level?
He bounced, all right. Maybe a lot of horses will start doing that again (after a brief hiatus of 5 years or so).
Other comments, now that the futures have closed, re BB-- aside from the huge effort making him a candidate to fall apart, (especially since he has a history of unsoundness), I have watched the stretch run of the Fla Derby 5 times, and he was already bearing in when took a bad step midstretch (watch the horse\'s head drop), immediately after which he bore in more, abruptly. I make him 50/50 to run in the Derby, 25% to run in two TC races.
War Pass-- I\'m not a pace guy, but has anyone ever run faster than 46 going two turns at Aqu, let alone held together to get a decent figure (my guess is around a 2)? I think this horse is being buried prematurely, and fkach, I\'m surprised, I would think you would love him. With the $ cutoff, they don\'t get to enter rabbits in the Derby.
TGJB,
Re War Pass, I am still studying/comparing the fractions to the other route race and watching the replays, but based on my preliminary analysis I agree with you regarding the pace. It was blazing. I do think he ran a very big race. I thought he was clearly the best horse in the Wood.
I\'ve had one problem with him this spring.
I thought he got away with a lot of loose leads as a 2YO and wanted to see him tested prior to the Derby. IMO some horses don\'t respond well to the pressures of the Derby first time (big field, duel for lead, getting roughed up etc..) IMO he was being over hyped before he satisfied me that he could face tough pressure and get 10F.
Big Brown is of higher quality than the rabbit that Mott sent out yesterday. Even though I don\'t expect Big Brown to commit suicide, it\'s tough for me to imagine that the Derby pace is going to be slow. BB has a similar pace profile. When I look at WP\'s tendency to back up in the stretch, his pedigree, the likely Derby pace, yesterday\'s final furlong etc... I think he\'s very likely to throw in the towel at the 1/8th pole - especially if Big Brown runs another big effort and puts him away at the quarter pole. I also can\'t imagine him putting away Big Brown and holding off the cavalry. It\'s going to be a very tough task for him even though IMO he ran much better than his final time figure indicates.
I just looked and TAP winning at a 21% clip with 48% of his runners hitting the board. Pretty good IMO. But I believe TW and Circular Quay both bounced of efforts yesterday!
Speaking of rabbits, if WP and BB make it to the Derby, looks like there could be a three-way battle for the lead.
The trainer of the Ill. Derby winner:
"I couldn't help but think about that," Roussel said of War Emblem's front running 20-1 Derby upset. "War Pass, Big Brown, it doesn't matter. We're going to the front."
(from kentuckyderby.com)
Jerry, it\'s strange that no one else is reacting to the BB Florida Derby stretch run problem...I agree completely with you...and it\'s not just a matter of his taking the physical problem into the Derby...the real problem will have to do with how hard he can train FOR the Derby...my observation is that just about anyone who ever had a Derby type horse goes all out to run in it, regardless of the problems they have.
So I expect to see BB in the race and I expect to see him nowhere at the finish.
As for War Pass, he may have had all sorts of excuses (particularly the rabbit) but he still doesn\'t look like an effective 2 turn horse. I don\'t care what kind of numbers he\'s running...at this level they are all so close anyway that I\'ll go with a horse that can finish.
Right now it\'s Colonel John or Pyro. The rest are pretenders.
He does not have a single quality older horse or a Derby and Oaks contender. People do not pay him the kind of money they pay him every day or send him the quality stock he gets to win at 26% over the inner oval at Ozone Park.
He is a good guy. A hard worker. Has proven he can manage a massive operation.
Now he needs to prove he is a quality horseman.
Which is usually suposed to come first......
Well Dutrow has said he came out fine. And you\'d think a) he\'s in a position to know, b) he\'s seen at least as many replays of the stretch as anyone, c) Kent D. might have said something, either to him or immediately after the race, if he thought something was wrong, and d) the horse didn\'t seem to slow appreciably in the stretch (though Smooth Air did seem to gain a bit).
Of course, it may well be that BB has an injury that is known - which makes Dutrow deceitful (though I can\'t think why). Or he doesn\'t know about it, and he\'s just an idiot, being the trainer and all.
I\'ve been doing this a long time; have had several trainers of my own; can tell you they pretty much say the same thing every time. That is the horse always \'came out fine.\' They have no intention ever of telling the truth, because they may have to live with it.
Charlie Wittingham used to say he treated owners like mushrooms: keep them in the dark and shovel shit on them. Dutrow is likely to be doing just that with his owners and you, the fan.
When a horse bears in or out, there is something wrong. There is always something wrong when that happens. Sometimes the problem is very hard to find. Not found by the handler, it is almost always denied.
Bet that horse at your own risk.
I don\'t have horses, but if I did I would not send one to Plech. I think that says it most succinctly.
I don\'t think anyone here wants someone to lose their livelihood, but I know the folks here want clean racing. The game is hard enough without having to factor the cheaters. And the cheaters don\'t just steal from bettors like you and I. They steal from their colleagues and they steal from the games foundation by pumping up sub-standard horses and sending them off to stud upon drugs rather than heart and lungs. If they can play clean no problem. If they can\'t the Feds will get involved and they aren\'t gonna worry about who is a \"star\". They are gonna regulate and close jurisdictions that can\'t run a clean game. Consequently, those jurisdictions need to police the connections so the jurisdictions themselves don\'t get shut down.
To my knowledge BRB\'s last work was March 25th and he hasn\'t worked since nor been seen. There\'s plenty of time to determine if he wiggled or ouched. He\'ll get a couple works in at Churchill and his appearance will be evaluated. Regardless of what happens in the Derby, I hope this one makes the race. If he does, I don\'t think he\'ll have to go eyeball to eyeball from the opening bell.
Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> He does not have a single quality older horse or a
> Derby and Oaks contender. People do not pay him
> the kind of money they pay him every day or send
> him the quality stock he gets to win at 26% over
> the inner oval at Ozone Park.
>
> He is a good guy. A hard worker. Has proven he can
> manage a massive operation.
>
> Now he needs to prove he is a quality horseman.
>
> Which is usually suposed to come first......
TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> First of all, I have found that inner track \"slop\"
> isn\'t a whole lot different than inner track fast.
> And I don\'t think he was losing ground to anyone
> but Visionaire in the stretch, by memory.
>
> But if you think that he just liked slop, wouldn\'t
> that effort be less taxing, and the most likely
> result be just going back to his previous level?
>
> He bounced, all right. Maybe a lot of horses will
> start doing that again (after a brief hiatus of 5
> years or so).
so you loved the Pletcher to pair up a big new top on Saturday, but on Sunday you suspect that all Pletcher\'s are in danger because they are off juice?
after the weekend racing I agree that its pyro or john, but would addsmooth air and maybe t of e tomy final cut.
IMO Pyro and Colonel John look and act healthiest at this point - Pyro with the superior speed figures. I\'m not expecting much from him this Saturday other than a ho-hum trip around that bizzare Keen oval.
When BBJ, BB, WP and RCTG are backing up down the stretch at Churchill, I say it\'s a toss up between Pyro, the Colonel, Court Vision, Big Truck and Tale of Ek who finishes up best on Derby Day.
I can\'t wait to see Colonel work over the Churchill Surface. If he relishes it like his daddy, he might be THE ONE. Of all the stalkers/closers he has the most room to go forward numbers wise. The poly PP\'s are tricky though but we know he\'s sound and honest. Besides, how can you not like a Colonel in the Kentucky Fried Derby presented by Yum!?
Chuckles_the_Clown2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I don\'t have horses, but if I did I would not send
> one to Plech. I think that says it most
> succinctly.
>
> I don\'t think anyone here wants someone to lose
> their livelihood, but I know the folks here want
> clean racing. The game is hard enough without
> having to factor the cheaters. And the cheaters
> don\'t just steal from bettors like you and I. They
> steal from their colleagues and they steal from
> the games foundation by pumping up sub-standard
> horses and sending them off to stud upon drugs
> rather than heart and lungs. If they can play
> clean no problem. If they can\'t the Feds will get
> involved and they aren\'t gonna worry about who is
> a \"star\". They are gonna regulate and close
> jurisdictions that can\'t run a clean game.
> Consequently, those jurisdictions need to police
> the connections so the jurisdictions themselves
> don\'t get shut down.
CtC this may be the most civil or charitable post ever for you. However whose livelihood are we talking about saving the cheaters if they become clean or the ones the cheaters already put out of business.
All one needs to do is go back to the accounting scandals at WorldCom. CEO Bernie Ebbars was considered to be a maverick who kept hitting numbers targets and doing consolidation acquisitions based on those projections that had the competitors screaming foul. Pressure from their own Shareholders and Boards were causing people to take unnecessary risks or lose their own jobs.
SUDDENLY EVERYONE WANTED TO DO BUSINESS WITH WORLDCOM.
And then Ebbars turned out to be an accounting fraud and is in jail and the business is bankrupt. However what happened to those who were judged against them along the way. The ones who were put out of business by playing by the rules?
Will Pletchers operation go bankrupt and he and his staff land in jail.
Probably not. More like an AT&T breakup is in order.
Uncle Buck
The Colonel\'s stretch antics from Saturday make Scrappy T\'s Preakness bolt look mild.Scrappy T did it coming off the turn which made it look worse.
Take a look at the head on view-it isn\'t pretty.Appears to be whip related but still troubling.He was doing it in the Sham but not this extreme.
You can\'t tell anything from the regular view-have to get the head on.
TGJB,
Would have thought they would have policed pretty heavily in Dubai and Tricky had quite a nice day in both continents.
Tony
jb wrote:
\"War Pass-- I\'m not a pace guy, but has anyone ever run faster than 46 going two turns at Aqu, let alone held together to get a decent figure (my guess is around a 2)? I think this horse is being buried prematurely, and fkach, I\'m surprised, I would think you would love him. With the $ cutoff, they don\'t get to enter rabbits in the Derby\"
.... considering the speed of the track Wood day( kinda dull) WP ran very well and better than the winner, not talking figs.In all of WP\'s races, except his first out this year at GP, he has not gotten that last part with any authority even considering he blazes the way. At CD, the stretch is forever and that last eighth is where I see him having difficulty.
Split guys have WP and BB as having \"rapid deceleration\" and are tossing both.I\'m more inclined to think that if they get away with an honest pace they\'ll finish well esp, BB.
Mike
I don\'t know, but I think you guys are writing Pletcher\'s obituary a bit prematurely. Right now his barn doesn\'t look as loaded as it often does at this time of year, but at least some of that was predictable because his 2YOs were a bit weaker than usual last year. I would not be shocked if he has a barn full of 2YO tigers this year, does an admirable job of spotting the second string types he has now in races where they can win, and finishes the year with a solid win rate. If he has another weak group of 2YOs, then I think we might start seeing the same kind of decline we\'ve seen elsewhere. A bad weekend or two is not going to kill this guy. No matter what he\'s doing as part of his success, one aspect of it is 100% certain in my mind. He spots his horses really well. If he\'s not loaded with Grade 1 horses, he\'s going to win a lot of Grade 2/3 races and steal a few big races too (like Jerry has done in recent years) because he knows what he\'s doing.
Miff,
>>Split guys have WP and BB as having \"rapid deceleration\" and are tossing both.I\'m more inclined to think that if they get away with an honest pace they\'ll finish well esp, BB. <<
I don\'t want to take the conversation too off topic because we are on the TG board, but to me this is one of the more difficult aspects of pace.
It does appear that some speed horses will run fast early and decelerate progressively worse as you stretch the distances out regardless of pace while others have the ability to slow down early and then come home a lot faster if conditions allow it.
When I see a horse with a deceleration type pattern in its fractional times, it\'s sometimes difficult to tell whether it was the conditions (other speed horses in its races) that caused it and the horse could stretch out, slow down early, and finish much better if it had a better set of conditions or whether the horse is toast if he stretches out. There\'s an interrelationship between fractions/pace and stamina that impacts closing times that is not clear from fractions alone.
My best guess is that War Pass doesn\'t really want 10F, but BB can get it if he\'s not used up chasing War Pass.
fkach wrote:
\"It does appear that some speed horses will run fast early and decelerate progressively worse as you stretch the distances out regardless of pace while others have the ability to slow down early and then come home a lot faster if conditions allow it\"
... so much sophisticated data around today.The difference between a very fast horse and a very talented one is their ability to make or attend a fast pace and still finish with some authority.Like TG,Rags,Pace figs, there are guys also measuring just this aspect.
Mike
Even if BB slows down alot, it might well be enough to win the Derby. You add 14 seconds to the Florida Derby and you get a time good enough to win alot of recent Kentucky Derbys (and it wouldn\'t have taken BB :14 to do another 1/8th).
And, as blazing fast as Gulfstream can be on Florida Derby day, CD on Kentucky Derby Day can be even worse (Monarchos, anyone?).
Tony-- What do you base that on? Do you know what they test for, and don\'t? And again-- the problem with the TCO2 tests is the level necessary for a positive.
Michael-- I would have bet TW whether Plecther trained him or not. But there was a significant amount of information out there this weekend, of which that result was part. Have you seen many Pletcher 3yos get beat 30 lengths? Have you seen many bounce a great deal (more than 3-4 points)? Have you seen Frankel horses (Ginger Punch and Country Star) that fit well on figures run X\'s?
We\'ll have to see what happens. What I can tell you from first hand experience (direct contact) is that some individuals and institutions that were previously oblivious started taking the \"move-up\" issue seriously in the last 6 months. Don\'t know whether that\'s the cause or not yet-- too soon to tell. But this is something to watch.
fair enough .....
but Country Star did not \'X\'. she ran 65 feet longer than the winner - likely a new top.
\"but Country Star did not \'X\'. she ran 65 feet longer than the winner - likely a new top\"
Mike D,
... likely a new top? She was wide both turns but could not have been more empty, her worst performance in a short career. Ground will save her fig but she was awful,no?
Mike
Flach,
The trends for Pletcher are going in the wrong direction. There are no Lawyer Rons, Harlans Holidays being taken from other good trainers and given to him. His move ups were extremelly explosive but short lived with those horses anyway.
Core syndication groups like Peachtree and Dogwood are using more and more \"other trainers\".
Almost no seven figure sales yearlings this year from Tabor and Co.
I would be curious if someone could tell me how money inner tube starters he has had this year as compared to the last three or four years. If the number is way up then it will tells you all you need to know.
When he sells the Hallandale Condo then nothing more need be said.
miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Mike D,
>
> ... likely a new top? She was wide both turns but
> could not have been more empty, her worst
> performance in a short career. Ground will save
> her fig but she was awful,no?
>
> Mike
hi Mike,
I don\'t see it that way.
I am going to make the performance as good as the figure. she was evenly paced in a :06.2 final 1/16.
certainly not a great race, but I wouldn\'t call it awful.
she\'s up against some good fillies this year though. should be a great Oaks.
hi Mike,
I don\'t see it that way.
I am going to make the performance as good as the figure. she was evenly paced in a :06.2 final 1/16.
certainly not a great race, but I wouldn\'t call it awful.
she\'s up against some good fillies this year though. should be a great Oaks.
hi mike,
I understand your read but I toss all horses \"saved\" by ground who show no run especially if they get a good fig. Empty is empty, ground is only relevant somEtimes, imo.With Country Star and Proud Spell bombing in their last preps,Eight Bells seems the one at this moment but a very good race if they all enter and run well. Good luck
Mike
TGJB, I know you are busy, but if you have a chance to respond...do you expect the new rules on steroids to cut back on the number of move-ups (and move-up trainers) at Delaware this meet (and in other mid-Atlantic states)? Or, do you think the cause of the move-ups lies elsewhere and things will continue as they are?
I don\'t know the answer to that, and it will be interesting to see what happens. But one problem is that we won\'t know what else is going on behind the scenes-- tracks would much rather warn guys to stop using something than catch them and have a scandal, so even if the move-up guys slow down it might not be steroids.
How does this apply to Kentucky? From what I understand the legislature is proposing cutting the Racing Commissions Budget which will seriously undermine the Commissions ability to regulate.
Venues such as Turfway and Ellis would have no regulation at all. Having looked at several Kentucky based Sheets over the couple of weeks, with the opening of Keeneland and the big Lanes End Day at Turfway, only a fool would believe that things are not already going on there.
Cheap horses are running aberrant Tops all over the place. If this is the case then only a fool would be willing to bet into these venues with limited or no regulation.
stop it. hes got plenty of money behind him, thats whats keeping him in the game. without drugs and cash hes a average trainer, at best.
I agree, it\'s pretty complicated---lots of layers to the situation. It will be interesting to see what happens. Thanks for your reply---I appreciate you taking the time during Derby season.
From a Mary Jean Wall column in today\'s Lexington Herald Leader,
The suit was dark. But not so dark it was a funeral suit, as events turned out.
\"They had us buried, but we\'re not dead yet,\" Pletcher remarked, in a rare joking mood.
All of the grave-dancing in this thread re: Pletcher is going to turn into heart attacks and apoplectic seizures if Toddster managers to get 2 of his runners to hit the board in the Derby.
(Add Dutrow\'s Big horse to the top three, and watch the forum melt down completely! Oy, the angst!)
TGJB,
I just happened to grab this comment. I think its a great point.
Those guys you mentioned are among many who have been flying under the radar in the last year or so.
I have great respect for Dutrow, but after several suspensions, when is enough, enough?
I told a friend recently that I hope the Derby isn\'t found to be anything fishy.
The sport gets enough bad ink.