I\'m not sure if I\'ve ever cashed a ticket in this silly race, so take my reads with a bucket full of salt. Two turn and two turn grass races are my gig. These horses freaking in and out to negative numbers just confuses the hell out of me. The question is, \"Who can run a negative number today?\" In sheet order...
Bonapaw - Will we see him in a a few years as the 2004 version of Bet On Sunshine. Old boy keeps rolling. But I have my doubts. This one has normally reacted rather adversly in the past to negative number, usually to the 2+ range. In his last three forms, in which he\'s popped many negative figures, there has been a big (relative) bounce somewhere. This has yet to happen in the latest cycle. He \"bounced\" to a 0 last out. Was it enough of a recover figure for him? I\'m going to say no and cross my fingers.
Carson Hollow - Slowly developing sort who has done nothing wrong and why not take a shot with the weight allowance? Could improve with the paired tops, but the liklihood seems slim, and even with the weights looks like a minor threat to win.
Crafty C.T. - Can someone say HYPE? On short rest he\'s unlikely to break through to \"the other (negative) side. One positive - he doesn\'t need to take his track with him.
Day Trader - The spacing on this 3 year old colt scares me a bit. 3 big races in 6 weeks time. Given that he\'d have to improve to win, I find it highly unlikely that he could. Looks to be circling out of form.
Disturbingthepeace - Can the skein be continued? Possibly. Will I be in his corner to find out? Probably not. I\'m pegging him for a 1, which won\'t win. If he can continue his slow maturation, could be one to look for next year if Vienna doesn\'t run him into the ground.
D\'Wildcat - May miss the race due to illness. Even if he did show, he wouldn\'t be a factor. Never the same since the Swale.
Gygistar - Possible winner OUT.
Kalookan Queen - 3 point top, 3 weeks rest, older mare? NEXT!
Kona Gold - How many horses can say 7 of their last 10 were negative? Not many that are still running. Headley has done a masterful job with the old boy. Although he might have lost a step, I think Bruce may be able to squeeze the lemon once more and coax a 0 or negative number out of him. Has run very well while fresh before.
Orientate - As I said before in a previous analysis. It used to be a negative would cause an \"X\", then two consecutive, now three. As you can see in the BC field, it takes more than one to knock out a true champion. Is this the end of the line for Oreintate? There aren\'t just negatives, but HUGE negatives. Never doubt Lukas, but at the short price he will most likely be, I\'ll be taking a stand against him. Hopefully he makes it through the race safely.
Swept Overboard - He ust have a taste for sake, because his return from his brilliant Met Mile was a tad disappointing. However I just have a gut feel that he\'s only going to run a 1 or so, putting him out of contention for the big prize.
Touch Tone - If the Werner-Durant entry had another race or two into him you could see him developing a nice line, but as it stands now you can\'t back him with any confidence to improve to be a factor, even a serious exotic factor.
Wake At Noon - The Canuck just reacts too wildly to big efforts, which his last one was. This being said, look for him to bounce back to the Great White North.
Xtra Heat - It would be a great story to see her win it. Runs her guts out every dance. The question is, is this the end of the line? You know Salzman will have her cranked for what could be his last race with her. It seems like normal sheet reading rules just don\'t apply to an animal as special as this. Have to consider. The 3 pounds is always a help.
Thunderello - I admire Scott Lake for his willingness to give him a shot, but it\'s just asking too much too soon. Can\'t expect development off a 5 point top.
My Cousin Matt - Call me crazy, but since the addition of the wraps, he\'s a new man. Could he be the crazy exotic atomic bomb if he can get back to the 1? With D\'Wildcat on the fence, it\'s possible he could get in.
Maybe I\'m missing the boat here, but the logical contenders seem to be Kona Gold, Xtra Heat and possibly Swept Overboard and Disturbingthepeace, making this a race to watch for me. Might have to make a small play using My Cousin Matt in the exotic pools just for action. But you won\'t see much of my money in this race.
Bill, please itemize some of the HUGE negatives on Orientate for me. I am admittedly a novice at figure reading. I see the bounce possibility (even likelihood) but why would you conclude that he is not even one of the \'logical contenders\'?
Sprint (G1) entrant MY COUSIN MATT (Matty G) has been sick and will not participate on Saturday.
Grade 2 winner D\'WILDCAT (Forest Wildcat), also pointing toward the Sprint, has been coughing and his status remains uncertain.
For what it\'s worth,I\'ve done pretty well in this race over the yrs, & my only major disagreement with your dope is that I think Bonapaw might be the proverbial \"freak.\" In fact, I started out thinking he might be a single, though I\'m not as certain of that now that I\'ve looked at the race a few times. As I see it, the fact that B has already won twice at AP & his recent work are strong positives. The biggest knock I have heard from some very accomplished handicappers is that B needs the lead & will get cooked by what on paper figures to be very fast fractions. My rejoinder is that the number of speed duels which people predict to set up late closers in 6f races is much higher than the number which actually occur. I\'m also of the opinion that B does not need the lead because his pps include 6 previous instances where he was 3rd or more at the 1/4 & 1/2 and closed to win. I also think B\'s cruising speed is 44 & change. My biggest concerns are the, shall we say, unique connections, a question re the kind of sprinters B has faced & beat, & the loss to XH in the desert heat, when XH was at her worst.
XH\'s only 2 losses this yr came in the heat at Calder & Dubai, & she is apparently thriving in the cooler weather in Chicago. Again, dopesters I respect maintain that she also needs the lead & will be compromised by her running style. However, she has run slightly off the pace & won 6 times, though not recently & never with Vega in the irons if you go by her pps. However, the race I saw her run in the Phoenix is different from the one on paper. She dropped back to 3rd near the turn & then passed the pacesetters in the stretch on a day when inside speed was dominant. I also have trouble ignoring the facts that she has never been out of the money at 6f, that she did as well as any stuck on Bel\'s dead rail last yr, & repeatedly throughout her career she has faced situations where it looked like others had better early speed. For whatever reason, in most of those cases she was able to get the lead, set slower fractions than those others typically ran, & such horses rarely passed her.
I also give KG a chance for the same reasons you do, & rightly or wrongly have been waiting to take a stand against Orientate for some time, not just for the reasons you hint at, which are perfectly valid, but also because I see many ways he can lose even if he is sound & not over the top. O does need the lead & I think a case can be made that he has never faced the kind of quality early speed he will face in this race & that he has rarely faced or beaten a quality sprinter in his 4 race skein.
What about an off the wall shot that nobody is considering or talking about? I was scratching my head when Touch Tone, who has always rated in sprints, got involved in a speed duel with Day Trader off a yr plus layoff, but now I\'m wondering if the race was a logical conditioning move for an ex-quarter horse trainer who I think is very underrated. TT improved dramatically in his 2nd lifetime start, is lightly raced, & has the most upside of any horse in the race. He needs to make a huge fwd move, but who\'s to say that\'s impossible at 50-1? Not me, when he has the exact pattern I would be looking for if this was, as DP put it,on a Thurs card at Aqu.
Hello Mall,
I like your analysis, it makes a lot of sense. Thank you so much for sharing it. Bonapaw looked like a strong contender to me as well. I have one question, I know that Kona\'s running style is to come from off of the pace. Do you think it will set up for him to get up in time and if he can what do you think of Swept Overboard\'s chances? I read that Steven Crist with DRF is high on Swept Overboard but to me his # dont look nearly as low as Bonapaw\'s Xtra Heat\'s or Orientate\'s.
What do you think?
Mall,
in terms of early speed, my view is that the sprint needs to be handicapped twice - 1. what if they kill each other upfront and 2. what if they don\'t. Doesn\'t mean you have to bet all the combos (in fact you shouldn\'t) but I think that in exotics you need to play a bit of both with key horses. as an example at CD 2 years ago this worked beautifully when early speed was diabolical and 8-5 kona beat two late finishers (that were very very playable in the speed self-destructs angle) for a large tri. last year the speed holds angle would have been succesful (I admit last year I got caught in the hype about everyone cutting their throats and forgot about the speed holds scenario). Maybe they will cut their throats this year but what if they don\'t (check that derby exacta I keep telling myself).
on bonapaw my US experience tells me that I have a slight doubt about him in big fields. I played him in a large-ish field at SAR last year and he was very disappointing (went too fast early). His big numbers have been in small fields. Maybe not enough to toss him but a lingering doubt nevertheless.
Bonapaw\'s SAR races were off a top effort (at PrM), and this may have more to do with his sub-par race(s) than the big SAR fields. He\'s not coming into this off a big top and the price should be fair. HP
PGGM: I have an open mind re Swept Overboard & in fact am debating his merits with one of the accomplished handicappers(a regular contributor to this Bd) I mentioned. I\'ll try to remember to let you know my final thoughts before the race.
Thank you very much.
The HUGE negatives were the numbers themselves, not a negative as in attributes (although this line is negative in my mind). They weren\'t -1/2 or -1, they were monster negative numbers, the likes of which I haven\'t seen put together in the manner in which he has, which I will say spells the end of the line for O.
This is really just a race to watch for me given my bad sprint handicapping. Hopefully they all cross the wire safely.
Thanks for the clarification. I misunderstood your comment.
Can someone explain to me once again why Orientate was a throw-out?
For me, could get beat at a short price. HP
I understand the short-price argument. Although he certainly was not the shorest price of the day. But I think some people were presenting some patern-reading basis for discarding the horse. I think it might be worthwhile to take a look at that pattern again and assess what Orientate did. I would like to see his figure for the Sprint and factor that into the pattern. What does that tell us about pattern reading? What does it tell us about Orientate\'s performances since they committed him to sprinting? I sure would like to see comments from someone more knowledgable than me on this subject.
I wouldn\'t say I\'m more knowledgable, but here goes. The three straight minus 2\'s could be seen as a negative, pattern-wise, and they might knock him out (a point of view I take more strongly with a 3-1 than a 10-1 shot).
Also, even if you believe this isn\'t a negative, are you sure he can do it again right off the bench? Since he ran the minus 2\'s so close together, it looked like he got there and held it, which is different than just popping a minus 2 after a break. HP
The exact words of an ex-trainer who watched & studied his races & his only daylight workout, where he pulled up as soon as he hit the finish line, something which Amoss also saw as a negative. And this was coming from someone whose opinion I have relied on successfully on many occasions, as he has talked me off of great number/pattern horses which had cracked hooves, were out of shape, were \"gutted\" from their last race,etc. The fact that Lukas did all but one work in the dark & then simply reported the times to the CD Clockers didn\'t make sense, as Orientate figured to be a very short price & why would he conceal the works to bump the price from 7/5 to 8/5? However, the rumors that the horse had a problem in his left front was communicated to me by one of the few drf handicappers\' opinions I respect, & one member of our syndicate who was also in Chicago said that the rumors had taken on a life of their own. Then there was the fact that the horse was coming in off the longest layoff of any horse that Lukas ever started in a BC race, & he has a long history of trying to squeeze one more race out of a horse which is, as the pattern experts say, over the top. The case I made against the horse had nothing to do with the pattern, as it appeared to me that he would win if he ran his race, & could be seen as an overlay at the final odds. As it turned out, Orientate ended up going off at 5/2 in a US pool of approx $4.1 million & as high as 7-1 with Euro bookmakers, & I\'m left wondering if the allegedly financially strapped DWayne made a score which rivals the one made by Mr Single from Baltimore without breaking any laws & busted our pk6 tix in the process.
I wish I could have gotten those 7-1 Euro odds. I was happy with the 5/2. I didn\'t have access to the inside information about lameness. I saw the 3 fast races in a row in a short period of time. That seemed to prove that he could run fast without bouncing on short rest. The longer rest into the BC looked to me like a way to further reduce the likelihood of a bounce this time. Many past winners of the BC Sprint have come in with 6 weeks or more of rest. And even a little regression from those prior figures looked like it might be good enough to win. Assuming he didn\'t lose too much ground from the outside post. I concluded that with his running style he might not lose to much. Why was this not an appropriate way to read the pattern? I know he won. That\'s not the point of my question. I\'m trying to understand why the same logic couldn\'t be used effectively in the future. Is there any historical data that indicates this to be a flawed approach?
Jim,
If you ignored (or did not hear) the rumors about Orientate and downplayed the layoff and lack of works (both unusual for Lukas) and the history of the trainer, and assumed that Orientate was 100 percent healthy, then he was clearly the most likely winner.
Since switching to dirt sprints, he had been consistently faster than any sprinter ever and he had demonstrated the ability to handle the expected hot pace and still run his number. The other front-runners in the race had either shown they could not handle the expected pace or had never seen such a pace. Xtra Heat, Bonapaw and several others had shown they could not handle the expected pace. Carson Hollow and Thunderello were wild cards since they had never seen the expected pace and they both were still developing.
Xtra Heat and Bonapaw both failed to fire under the pace pressure (although Bonapaw had a rough start), Carson Hollow folded and Thunderello showed he has a big upside (I am hoping that they freeze some blood samples).
Still, given the 3 big recent efforts and the layoff (normally good for BC sprinters but unusual for Lukas) and the lack of works after his most recent race along with all the rumors and the fact that he was the likely favorite, you could also build a strong case that Orientate was not healthy and a toss.
As I said before the race in discussions with others, it would not have surprised me to have seen Orientate win the race or to have seen him break down or to have seen him win the race and then break down.
Chris
I was told by a breeder before the race that Xtra Heat had her winter coat & would probably not run her race for that reason, though why that would be true on a day like Sat is not clear to me. She looked the same to me, though my lack of skill in this area is such that it is not 100% certain I would have picked up on the fact if she was wearing mittens. I\'ve also been told on a number of occasions that fillies or mares were \"horsing\", which I understood to mean were in heat. I do not remember a single instance where such a horse won, which is one among many reasons one might conclude that the nos, while important, do not always tell the entire story.
Chris wrote:
\'If you ignored (or did not hear) the rumors about Orientate and downplayed the layoff and lack of works (both unusual for Lukas) and the history of the trainer, and assumed that Orientate was 100 percent healthy, then he was clearly the most likely winner.\'
I usually pay attention to rumors only if I think they\'re coming from a very reliable source. I had no way of knowing in this case. It was all just unsubstantiated stuff to me. Leading up to a major event like the BC there is always a bunch of wild rumors flying. And while the absence of listed works is a red flag, I don\'t usually discard a horse on that basis unless I know something (injury, etc.) Too many trainers hide (some intentionally and some by chance)their workouts in various ways, that I just don\'t put much stock in that any more. And Orientate did show three decent works since his last race. More would have been encouraging to me, but I couldn\'t discard him on that basis. And I actually considered the layoff to be positive coming into the race. My fear back in September was that Lukas was going to keep running the horse every three weeks and burn him out before the BC. So when he backed him off for a breather, I was positively impressed. Maybe I got lucky in reading the pattern this way. Maybe the horse really is lame and will never run again. Maybe we\'ll never see another horse put together 4 sprint numbers like these with that kind of spacing. I guess I\'ll be watching for that down the road and see what happens. I don\'t have access to any historical data that I can check the premise against.
My earlier post was not specific on this question, but the ex-trainer, who has a close relationship with the CD clockers, & later a young rotund gentleman who is in the process of becoming a CD clocker, told me independent of one another that the 1st two workouts occurred this way. The Clockers arrive at, say, 5 am. At 5:05, they receive a call from DWayne & he says Orienate already worked & that he caught him in X & change. X & change is what appeared in the drf for 2 works in the dark that nobody actually saw. The only daylight work & the only work anyone actually saw was the last one before the race, & that\'s the one Tom Amoss viewed as negative because of the way he pulled up at the finish line.