Dear ESPN,
Please kill:
Jerry Bailey
Joe Morgan
Thanks
All of a sudden this Derby got a lot more interesting.
Unfortunately, War Pass and Pyros odds will now be readjusted to more accurately reflect their chances.
However, a War Pass/Big Brown Pace battle would be interesting wouldnt it?
fkach Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> All of a sudden this Derby got a lot more
> interesting.
\"However, a War Pass/Big Brown Pace battle would be interesting wouldnt it? \"
Yes it would, especially if War Pass comes back with a good effort in the Wood.
Of Big Brown,Tricky said after the race:
\"All I have to do is stay out of his way. I let him do what he wants."
.... a candid honest comment from Tricky. So much for pointing one or pattern creating. All you need is one who can run holes in the wind and is able to recoup within a few weeks, happens occasionally. Looked like a negative -3ish.
Mike
Miff,
It certainly looks like a big figure, would seem to have to be in negative territory, as he not only ran 3 seconds faster than the fillies, but also was wide on the first and probably the 2 path on the 2nd turn (not sure why he did that).
But if he gets a negative 3ish, it is time to break out the \"bounce\" study of 3 year olds who ran big negative numbers in the spring of their 3 year old season and how poorly most ran in the Derby itself.
Bandini ran a negative 3ish
Bellamy Road ran a negative 5ish
Sweetnorthernsait ran a negative 2ish
Afleet Alex ran a negative 2ish
Greeley\'s Galay ran a negative 2ish
Those horses I remember. Smarty Jones is the only one that comes to mind that actually ran a big number in the Derby off the big negative number and if you remember, he actually won the derby with 2 points lower than his big arkansas race (southwest?)
With a foundation of just 3 races and bad feet, Big Brown will be hardpressed to turn in a big performance in the derby off of what almost assuredly is a 3-4 point new top. Although, he will get the 5 weeks.
We\'ll see.
Jimbo:
Excellent. The question is not \"how fast can BB run in the Derby?\", its
\"will BB run in the Derby?\". Is 5 weeks enough time for a horse with soundness
issues to recover from whatever ails him?
A good test for the horseman Miff calls Tricky, who has over the last 5 months
won a BC race (RD now 4/9 lifetime on BC Day), two major stakes in Dubai and a
1000K Derby prep.
Is it true that the name originally submitted to the Jockey Club was \"Big JERRY
Brown\"?
Anyone see the head on shot of the stretch run? Horse was all over the place.
BIG BROWN could cause one of the worst tragedies in Derby history if he runs.
All kinds of ailments, but feeling no pain!!!
Good Luck,
Joe B.
jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Miff,
>
> It certainly looks like a big figure, would seem
> to have to be in negative territory, as he not
> only ran 3 seconds faster than the fillies, but
> also was wide on the first and probably the 2 path
> on the 2nd turn (not sure why he did that).
>
> But if he gets a negative 3ish, it is time to
> break out the \"bounce\" study of 3 year olds who
> ran big negative numbers in the spring of their 3
> year old season and how poorly most ran in the
> Derby itself.
>
> Bandini ran a negative 3ish
> Bellamy Road ran a negative 5ish
> Sweetnorthernsait ran a negative 2ish
> Afleet Alex ran a negative 2ish
> Greeley\'s Galay ran a negative 2ish
>
> Those horses I remember. Smarty Jones is the only
> one that comes to mind that actually ran a big
> number in the Derby off the big negative number
> and if you remember, he actually won the derby
> with 2 points lower than his big arkansas race
> (southwest?)
>
> With a foundation of just 3 races and bad feet,
> Big Brown will be hardpressed to turn in a big
> performance in the derby off of what almost
> assuredly is a 3-4 point new top. Although, he
> will get the 5 weeks.
>
> We\'ll see.
One thing to keep in mind about Big Brown is his pattern. Assuming the number comes out in the vicinity where people think it will come out, we will have a horse that has still not reacted. Will need to go back and look at the negative figure study and see which horses had crossed into negative territory prior to ever giving a reaction. To me, Big Brown is completely uncharted territory because he still has only three races and is still improving and learning. I shudder to give a horse a bounce that has not yet given me a bounce. Call me crazy, but I am rapidly feeling like this derby is getting a lot less interesting from a betting standpoint (maybe the figures will look different a month from now and i will feel differently, but right now it looks like a race with no handhold to find a wise guy position).
There is one thing about Big Brown that is a little different than most 3YOs with a similar profile.
IMHO, his deput on turf was kind of freakish. I thought he came home like a very special horse in his debut. Typically, I empty my wallet trying to beat horses like this in races like the Florida Derby (1st time against high quality horses, really tough outside post etc...). I wanted no part in trying to beat this horse because I was already convinced he was probably a total monster. (I didn\'t bet him either though).
I\'m not so sure what to think about this figure if it winds up super fast.
Jim,
Agree, but none of those negative fig runners were trained by Tricky.That study is somewhat skewed imo, because it may be kinda normal for most young 3yr olds to regress in their first race with 126 pounds at a distance farther than they have ever run with 20 horses banging on each other.How would that study look at a mile and an eighth with 122 pounds? What athlete, human/horse performs his best EVERY time anyway, answer, none.
In modern derby history, most of the winners came off a winning or second place prep.From memory not too many ran a negative -1 or better but 3 yr old negatives are a rather recent phenomena, generally speaking.
BB has developed app 10 points from his initial turf win with little to no foundation.(Rags/Beyer have both of BB\'s previous races a bit faster than TG) He is now legit fastest by far. No 3yr old has come close to doing what BB did yesterday against the clock while making the entire race shape from death valley post position.He did not beat much and wandered through the lane( analyst said he was running greenly, I think exhaustion was beginning to set in)
Even Tricky can\'t stop this one from popping a quarter, so that\'s gonna be a luck thing.Was it a knock out performance, or a bottom builder? Tough call with Tricky at the helm. This guy runs them back in 3-4 days and wins,so much for the spacing theorists.
Mike
p.s. Another horse ran the last 1/16 of a turf route in 5.3 seconds as BB did in his 2yr old first start, Barbaro. For those not students of splits, it\'s in the freak range to run that split as a two yr old.
Richiebee,
Glad to see you back with your always insightful posts. This horseman that Miff calls \"Tricky\" and as Maggi Moss tried to tell everyone; during the Alday/Dutrow fued, is the most loving man and smothers with love his charges and they just respond to his kindness.
I think they don\'t test for the stuff he\'s got his hands on and it sure ain\'t baking soda
Its very clear that we now have a new Derby Favorite. His name is Big Jerry Brown \"BJB\".
First a little race rehash. There was some serious bumping early and some horses ran hard after the trouble (Nistle\'s Crunch and Hey Byrn) and others didn\'t pick up a hoof after the fisticuffs. (Elysium Fields and BB Frank). Not that BB was ever a factor.
Let\'s wait for the post race reports regarding which horses took the worst of it and deserve another chance. Currently, I believe Nistle\'s Crunch and Hey Byrn deserve next race consideration upon trouble yesterday. I was very impressed with Nistle\'s Crunch. It was a very big effort to the stretch and I think Nistle\'s will make some waves if they keep him away from BJB.
As far as BJB he did get erratic in the stretch, but he was pulling further away doing so. It could have been an indicator of fatigue or injury. It could have been that the first big crowd he saw got him off stride. I\'ll let the reports in the coming weeks influence my decision which.
BJB could come up with a hoof problem. Theres five weeks to hear about it. He could meet a resurgent War Pass in a pace duel, we\'ll have to wait upon War Pass\'s redemption as well. But one thing you can\'t dismiss is the race itself. An older Electrify in the last race of the day ran a number in the Zip to -2 range. (I\'m leaning to -2). That puts BJB right there and I think we have a new Kentucky Derby Favorite and this time, he\'s legit.
Ka-Ching
SoCalMan2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> jimbo66 Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Miff,
> >
> > It certainly looks like a big figure, would
> seem
> > to have to be in negative territory, as he not
> > only ran 3 seconds faster than the fillies, but
> > also was wide on the first and probably the 2
> path
> > on the 2nd turn (not sure why he did that).
> >
> > But if he gets a negative 3ish, it is time to
> > break out the \"bounce\" study of 3 year olds who
> > ran big negative numbers in the spring of their
> 3
> > year old season and how poorly most ran in the
> > Derby itself.
> >
> > Bandini ran a negative 3ish
> > Bellamy Road ran a negative 5ish
> > Sweetnorthernsait ran a negative 2ish
> > Afleet Alex ran a negative 2ish
> > Greeley\'s Galay ran a negative 2ish
> >
> > Those horses I remember. Smarty Jones is the
> only
> > one that comes to mind that actually ran a big
> > number in the Derby off the big negative number
> > and if you remember, he actually won the derby
> > with 2 points lower than his big arkansas race
> > (southwest?)
> >
> > With a foundation of just 3 races and bad feet,
> > Big Brown will be hardpressed to turn in a big
> > performance in the derby off of what almost
> > assuredly is a 3-4 point new top. Although, he
> > will get the 5 weeks.
> >
> > We\'ll see.
>
> One thing to keep in mind about Big Brown is his
> pattern. Assuming the number comes out in the
> vicinity where people think it will come out, we
> will have a horse that has still not reacted.
> Will need to go back and look at the negative
> figure study and see which horses had crossed into
> negative territory prior to ever giving a
> reaction. To me, Big Brown is completely
> uncharted territory because he still has only
> three races and is still improving and learning.
> I shudder to give a horse a bounce that has not
> yet given me a bounce. Call me crazy, but I am
> rapidly feeling like this derby is getting a lot
> less interesting from a betting standpoint (maybe
> the figures will look different a month from now
> and i will feel differently, but right now it
> looks like a race with no handhold to find a wise
> guy position).
And that was when Reynolds was training him.
...and add this quote from Dutrow a few weeks back "I always thought he was better on turf but when I worked him in company and [older stakes horse] Diamond Stripes couldn't stay with him, I knew I had a turf horse AND a dirt horse.\"
I do not think these 3 year olds can stay with him either. He is not a need to lead type as he pressed in his mile alw win.
From Kent D \"My plan was not to get on the lead, but rather to get close enough to the rail so as not to get caught wide,\"
Personally, I hope the feet stay well as racing needs its stars.
ronwar Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Personally, I hope the feet stay well as racing
> needs its stars.
I agree, but for a different, selfish reason. I hope Big Jerry\'s feet
and the rest of him stay sound so that I will have a short priced favorite to
bet against on the first Saturday in May.
Unbelievable the amount of frenzy BJB has whipped up off his dominant Florida
Derby win. I have seen this phenomenon before; I think it was
called \"Bellamania\" and it was born of Bellamy Road\'s -5 TG#, 120 BSF Wood
Memorial.
Even more unbelievable that the usually cool and calculating \"Chalkles the
Clown\" is leading the BJB parade, or is at least right behind the drum major.
If you fancy BJB\'s chances, you have to hope that he has a decent workout in
the next 10 days. My opinion is that BJB, as dominant as he was on Saturday,
still needs a month of good conditioning to get ready for 10 furlongs on Derby
Day; no way he can succeed in the Derby after a month in a tub full of Epsom
salt or an extended stay in the Hyperbaric Chamber.
As to Racing needing heroes, Curlin and Benny the Bull are both in the midst of
extended campaigns of excellence. Benny has a catchy name and Curlin, the best
thoroughbred of the 21st Century, is one of the flashiest specimens I have
encountered in my years as a racing fan. With Curlin you also have the story of
the dispute over his ownership and management. These horses and their stories
are quite marketable. Ouija Board was a globe trotting heroine over an extended
career but very few folks outside of Racing were aware of her exploits.
The powers that be in Racing have done nothing to expose horses like Curlin and
Benny to the casual sports fan. At Derby time there is always added exposure,
but what the general public will probably hear about is that Tricky is the son
of a tremendous horseman, that Tricky was excluded for the sport for 5 years
while he exorcised his personal demons, that the mother of Tricky\'s child was
murdered in upstate New York.
The \"Buzz\" will last as long as there is a possibility of a Triple Crown winner.
Once that possibility no longer exists, the casual sports fan tunes out.
I\'ll watch the parade with interest, but I won\'t drink from that Big Brown jug
of Kool Aid that\'s being passed around.
With all due respect, the horse\'s veering in the stretch had nothing to do with seeing the crowd....he went wide out of the turn for home, probably because he was tiring...that\'s normal...when he later ducked down towards the rail, almost suddenly, it had something to do with pain, IMHO.
As for the analyst who conjectured he ran greenly, the comment is way off the beam. Not worth considering.
Big Richee Bee,
I hate to keep going back over this, but Bellamy Road ran on a wicked fast strip Wood Day with only 1 \"early card\" 9 pole event for New York Bred Slow Rats to compare him to.
If memory serves 3 or 4 horses set track records that day. Forest Danger, Don Six, \"Bear Fan? and Bellamy Road. Granting 3 of those track records where the 6 furlong mark in a 7 furlong race.
The entire Wood field collapsed and the best horse in that race (a gelding) had his saddle slip. (He was by Fit to Fight, though I can\'t remember his name right now.) It wasn\'t popular, but I credited Bellamny Road with no better than a negative 1. (At this point, I\'m not certain it was that good.) Bellamy Road ran wide in the Derby on the best part of the track but lacked punch through the lane, which was born out in his subsequent and final start. He was no monster.
In the Florida Derby BRB ran a number equivalent to a very hard knocking South Florida horse, that could win in Grade I company with the same effort at another track. BRB\'s Saturday effort is not an assumption and not an extrapolation. It stands on its own weight. Projecting a wide trip for BRB is impossible but for getting hung up at the break. He not only has speed to kill he has to his point an untested gas tank. Don\'t discount the early race effort Nistle\'s Crunch threw at him. It was much more than a bona fide pace.
I\'m not prepared to write BRB off with 5 weeks to go because of a little wiggling in the stretch and have other reasons to think he\'s gonna be hell to beat if he starts in the Derby in the same condition, granting his post race condition is the key variable.
Maybe I have a little sentimental attachment to BRB now, but there is no comparing the Wood effort of Bellamy Road to the Fladerby effort of BRB. Not gonna do it...not in the same ballpark......uh uh...would be im...pru...dent.
Agree that Curlin is Heavyweight Champion and with any kind of 2YO foundation, he stood a good chance of winning the Triple Crown in a very tough year. Street Sense did love Churchill though.
richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> ronwar Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
>
>
> > Personally, I hope the feet stay well as racing
> > needs its stars.
>
> I agree, but for a different, selfish reason. I
> hope Big Jerry\'s feet
> and the rest of him stay sound so that I will have
> a short priced favorite to
> bet against on the first Saturday in May.
>
> Unbelievable the amount of frenzy BJB has whipped
> up off his dominant Florida
> Derby win. I have seen this phenomenon before; I
> think it was
> called \"Bellamania\" and it was born of Bellamy
> Road\'s -5 TG#, 120 BSF Wood
> Memorial.
>
> Even more unbelievable that the usually cool and
> calculating \"Chalkles the
> Clown\" is leading the BJB parade, or is at least
> right behind the drum major.
>
> If you fancy BJB\'s chances, you have to hope that
> he has a decent workout in
> the next 10 days. My opinion is that BJB, as
> dominant as he was on Saturday,
> still needs a month of good conditioning to get
> ready for 10 furlongs on Derby
> Day; no way he can succeed in the Derby after a
> month in a tub full of Epsom
> salt or an extended stay in the Hyperbaric
> Chamber.
>
> As to Racing needing heroes, Curlin and Benny the
> Bull are both in the midst of
> extended campaigns of excellence. Benny has a
> catchy name and Curlin, the best
> thoroughbred of the 21st Century, is one of the
> flashiest specimens I have
> encountered in my years as a racing fan. With
> Curlin you also have the story of
> the dispute over his ownership and management.
> These horses and their stories
> are quite marketable. Ouija Board was a globe
> trotting heroine over an extended
> career but very few folks outside of Racing were
> aware of her exploits.
>
> The powers that be in Racing have done nothing to
> expose horses like Curlin and
> Benny to the casual sports fan. At Derby time
> there is always added exposure,
> but what the general public will probably hear
> about is that Tricky is the son
> of a tremendous horseman, that Tricky was excluded
> for the sport for 5 years
> while he exorcised his personal demons, that the
> mother of Tricky\'s child was
> murdered in upstate New York.
>
> The \"Buzz\" will last as long as there is a
> possibility of a Triple Crown winner.
> Once that possibility no longer exists, the casual
> sports fan tunes out.
>
> I\'ll watch the parade with interest, but I won\'t
> drink from that Big Brown jug
> of Kool Aid that\'s being passed around.
>>Unbelievable the amount of frenzy BJB has whipped up off his dominant Florida
Derby win. I have seen this phenomenon before; I think it was
called \"Bellamania\" and it was born of Bellamy Road\'s -5 TG#, 120 BSF Wood
Memorial<<
LOL. I object to that generalization. ;-)
I was salvating to bet against Bellamy Road off his perfect trip -5 against a ton of speed coming from an outside post in the Derby. I have no special desire to bet against Big Brown\'s tough trip \"? figure\".
There are still a few more preps to be run. Let\'s see what happens. We\'ll also have to see if War Pass recovers his best form and makes himself a huge pace threat etc...
I see nothing in Big Brown\'s PPs that makes me anxious to bet against him. I thought he was a turf freak after his first start and he seems to be developing into a top dirt horse also. What\'s not to like other than a \"question mark\" about his feet. I haven\'t read anything bad about how he came out of this race. IMO this was a huge and legitimate effort, not a bias aided, loose lead, overhyped, fast figure like BR earned.
I have no clue how his pedigree looks for 10F (anyone?), but it doesn\'t look so great to an uninformed pedigree guy like me.
QuoteCurlin, the best
thoroughbred of the 21st Century
That\'s quite a claim And probably false - considering others have had as much or more success and run just a quick.
And I like Benny as much as the next man, but before this weekend, he was last seen racing in restricted company.
My how quicky the Invasors and Ghostzappers are forgotten (to say nothing of Point Given, Smarty, Rock of Gibraltar, or Barbaro)
Speaking of getting caught up in the frenzy . . .
ajkreider Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Curlin, the best
> thoroughbred of the 21st Century
>
> That\'s quite a claim And probably false -
> considering others have had as much or more
> success and run just a quick.
>
> And I like Benny as much as the next man, but
> before this weekend, he was last seen racing in
> restricted company.
>
> My how quicky the Invasors and Ghostzappers are
> forgotten (to say nothing of Point Given, Smarty,
> Rock of Gibraltar, or Barbaro)
>
> Speaking of getting caught up in the frenzy . . .
Curlin\'s already done more than PG and Smarty (I have no idea why Rock of Gibralter and Barbaro were even mentioned). GZ impressed but doesn\'t have as good of a record as Curlin. That leaves Invasor as the only possible equal thus far, and Curlin hopefully has the rest of the year to surpass that one.
Nice points richie, I just think the thing with Bellamy Road is a little different. Actually he didn\'t finish that bad in the derby considering the pace (h?) I remember the whole race falling apart and Giacomo of all horses winning.
I\'m sure you\'ve seen every other prep so far. Have you noticed anything similar about each one...The pace has been slowwwwwww, by all accounts. Even if War Pass comes back in all his glory, the pace shape of the derby is coming up on the light side.
AJ:
The DeFrancis Dash at Laurel is a Grade I race. The 2007 edition was won by...?
Curlin: Ark Derby, Preakness, JC Gold Cup, BC Classic, Dubai World Cup...
Smarty: What was his record after his 3YO campaign?
Ghostzapper: What was his record away from Belmont Park?
Barbaro: Cant say how great he would have been. Soundness is part of the
equation.
Point Given: Won 4 consecutive million dollar races (Preakness, Belmont,
Haskell, Travers). No BC wins, no racing past his 3YO season. Rivaled Curlin
in terms of physical presence.
Invasor: Pimlico Special, Suburban, Whitney, BC Classic, Donn Handicap, Dubai
World Cup.
OK AJ, I see your point. I will amend my statement.
\"IN MY OPINION, Curlin is the best thoroughbred of the 21st Century\"
curlin ? best in the 21st century ? maybe so - but w/o 2 yo races and the loss to the fillie and in an era when soundness seems to have been bred out of the mix , my question is - how much the best ? more likely imo - one of the best . however if the greatness committee says he\'s in - obviously he\'s in . i\'m just getting around to almost giving \'berni his due ...
Richie,
Respect your opinion, but Curlin has to do a little more to earn that honor, IMO. He didn\'t race at 2, so he has had one campaign, a workout/race in Dubai, then the big race in Dubai.
Smarty had more races than he did and was as fast.
I am a figure player, like many on this board, and Ghostzapper was faster than Curlin, and was certainly more versatile. Ghostzapper was Gr. 1 from 6 furlongs to 1 1/4.
Invasor is on par with Curlin IMO, to this point, with Curlin having the rest of this year to get by him.
If Curlin finishes the year with a couple more Gr. 1\'s and then another BC Classic, he has to get the nod, but I don\'t think it is clearcut yet.
I won\'t blame him for the ocmpetition, but that was probably the worst Dubai World Cup race ever. Although, I do believe Curlin trounced some very good horses in the BC Classic, in one of the best BC Classic fields in history (IMO).
Look, these types of discussions always have a bit of the \"my dad can beat up your dad\" feel to them, so I\'ll go ahead and apologize for sounding a bit snippy earlier.
Curlin is no doubt a great horse, and his durability plays a role in that. But on talent alone, he\'s got some peers. PG was simply unstoppable until his injury. Smartly lost once to Curlin\'s three, and probably lost that because of a bad ride. How would they had done if they\'d been allowed to continue their careers? Who knows, but they gave every indication that had at least what Curlin has.
(And the reason I put RofG and Barbaro in there is the way the won their races. RofG won something like 7 Group ones in a row, and the way he closed from nowhere in the BCT was something to behold. Barbaro\'s KD was as impressive a win as you\'ll see.)
Maybe through this year there\'ll be more to say on it - as he keeps winning.
Alm,
You are dead on. Isn\'t it ironic that these greatest horses of the universe (Curlin,Bad Leroy Brown,etc.) are only discovered and handled by the greatest horseman of the universe like Rick Dutrow, Steve Asmussen. Oh, can\'t that Jeff Mullins really turn a claimer around ?
I think that if I had the designer roid\'s that I could make a burro look like Curlin and maybe make that sumbitch fly.
I think I\'m with you on this one richie. I was just thinking that a few days ago viewing his PP\'s. Take nothing away from those other horses, but what Curlin did without \"foundation\" is incredible. And the BC romp was against one of the best assembled fields in a long time. Point Given and Silver Charm are two of my favs of all time, but whar Curlin just accomplished is amazing. Darn near The all-time leading money earner in what amounts to just about a calendar year of racing!!! He gets a big WOW from me.
AJ:
What would these debates be without a little \"snip\" here and there?
And by the way, my father was a lover, not a fighter.
Jimbo:
Ghostzapper\'s distance versatility was impressive, but again most of his
brilliant work was done at Belmont.
Again, soundness plays into the greatness equation. In this day and age, Curlin
dancing all 3 Triple Crown Dances and winning the JC Gold Cup and the BC
Classic at 3,and then coming back as a 4YO and winning in Dubai shows the kind
of durability and greatness we do not frequently get to see.
Lil Chuck-E Tee:
I couldn\'t resist the \"Bellamania\" reference because I knew it would be answered
by a comment about \"New York Bred Slow Rats\".
There is no question that Big Chuckie Brown has brilliant speed. Certainment,
BCB est tres gran vitesse.
But does he currently have the foundation, the \"bottom\" to tackle the Derby
distance? If he does not, what can Team Dutrow do in the next 30 or so days to
enable him to get this distance?
Long slow works? Some brilliantly fast breezes? Maybe a surprise appearance in
a race at Keeneland? The Derby Trial?
The prototypical lightly raced Derby victor was FuPeg, but FuPeg had the San
Felipe Stake (1-1/16th miles) (defeating BC Juvie winner Anees and eventual
Belmont winner Commendable) in March and the Wood Memorial in April under his
girth before winning the Derby and making Mr. Fusao and his gaggle of geisha
girls very happy.
Even if War Pass takes the Wood, I believe BB could still be a Derby fave. If
War Pass tanks in the Wood, and some of the other contenders are not fully
cranked in their preps, BB could be IMO 5/2 or 2/1 or 9/5.
Whether he has suitable Derby distance bottom is a multi-million dollar question.
As far a s the study 2000-2007
48 horses who ran big neg number did this next out
O% tops
18.8 pairs
29.2 off
52.1 x\'d
Three races, no foundation, better than average chance to run an off race, low price, let him beat me, no thanks
He\'s got miler pedigree which is OK if you are loose on the lead at Gulfstream RACEWAY. Not sure that style gets it done at Churchill at 1 1/4 with 19 others in the gate.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
\"Even if War Pass takes the Wood, I believe BB could still be a Derby fave. If
War Pass tanks in the Wood, and some of the other contenders are not fully
cranked in their preps, BB could be IMO 5/2 or 2/1 or 9/5\"
Bee,
On the other hand if WP bombs in the Wood and does not go to the Derby, that may leave BB loose on the lead.None of these 3yr olds have really shown to be want/need the lead types.Need WP, Pyro and Dennis of Cork to all run solid final preps to make the betting more interesting.WP defecting is a major blow to the possible race shape of the Derby.
Imagine Tricky and his entourage may be standing on the hallowed grounds of the winners circle at CD,ugh! If that happens will the Sheiks man be far away with a blank check?
Mike
I think we need to take a deep breath here and relax a bit. This board is hyping BB even more than the press. Big Brown isn\'t going to be 9-5 in the Derby, whether War Pass runs or not. As a matter of fact, I would bet now that Pyro goes off the favorite. As for loose on the lead, lets see the 20 entries, before we give BB the lead. I agree that no \"top contender\" besides WP are \"need the lead types\", but if you look at the fast derby paces and meltdowns of the past, it doesn\'t have to be the top contenders that cause the fast pace. See songandaprayer in the Monarchos Derby win and Spanish something or other, trained by Biancone a few years back, in maybe the Giacomo derby?
Big Brown will likely go into the derby as the fastest horse in the race, on figures. However, there will be plenty of reasons for people to bet against him. He will have a 3 race foundation, 1 turf race, 1 off the turf short field prep and then the Florida Derby. He does not have a distance pedigree, although if you look at the last 10 derby winners, not many did have true distance pedigrees. (of course after a few of them won, the monday morning qb\'s found some semblance of stamina in their pedigrees). Off the top of my head, War Emblem, Funny Cide and Smarty Jones all sported less than stellar stamina pedigrees, especially in their sire\'s lines. Some will view Big Brown as a potential pace casualty, although he would seem to be rateable. Dutrow has no real triple crown experience, at least that I can remember. Plus, many people just don\'t bet the chalk in Derbies.
Last point, which will seem to contradict my seemingly anti-big brown stance above. Some of the after-race chatter on this board about Big Brown beating nothing in the Florida Derby is funny and borderline dumb. First of all, where were those comments BEFORE the race. Now that BB ran away and hid, it is too easy to say he beat nothing and it is also being a bit simple to believe it. Give credit where credit is due. No horse had won from post 12 going 1 1/8 since in the last 4 years at Gulfstream. This horse ran 3 wide into the first time, setting a very very solid pace and then drew away in the stretch, albeit running a bit awkward, perhaps tiring from the huge effort. He was just off the track record on a day where the track didn\'t look to be especially souped up. He is a real good racehorse, who ran a real good prep race. Not sure he will win the derby, but it won\'t be because he beat nothing in the Florida Derby.
Straddling the fence on BB,
Jim
Jim,
the field was ok. not sure many of them were suited for 9f this early though, and EF apparently had heat issues before the race. not a solid grade 1 field imo.
BB is real though, and while a bounce is possible, that won\'t be my call if everything goes according to plan over the next five weeks.
looking forward to watching DoC and Col John run on Sat.
Remember Wheelaway? Better describes the way he left the track after the Belmont.
Michael,
I hear you on Denis of Cork, as the zero he ran puts him in contention if he can build off it, but as already covered on this board, that was a pretty big jump up for him and not sure what type of race in his last prep sets him up for a big derby run. I guess a slight regression would be OK.
I am not as interested in Colonel John or any of the california horses for that matter. I know Georgie Boy had a huge figure in a sprint, but I have to tell you that guessing how these poly/synthetic horses are going to run on dirt is absolutely no fun and to me takes a lot of handicapping out of play for the derby. I know I am old school and potentially politically incorrect in thinking that all poly and synthetic surfaces are bad for racing, but to me, the derby is emblematic of the problem. What do you do with all the california preps? Say that a \"number is a number\" and assume the form will translate to dirt? Guess at how the synthetic form will translate to dirt? Throw out all the California horses? I am going to do the latter, because I don\'t have any faith I can do the first two with any degree of accuracy. However, I doubt there will be any value in my opinion from a gambling perspective, as I think the California horses will be underbet in the win pool for the same reason I won\'t bet them.
Big Brown only got a 106 beyer. I guess i have to take a closer look at the other races that day, because based on raw times, I would have guessed at a faster beyer figure. Will be curious if JB agrees with Beyer\'s assessment of the track speed. I guess Beyer must have given the fillies a very very slow figure in the race right before the Florida Derby or assumed a pretty good change in variant from one race to the next.
Wheelaway? I am not sure I get that comparison. He was my bet in that Belmont and he sat the trip right behind the cheap speed (commendable) and then came up empty in the lane, and then later they found some kind of injury.
Big Brown came up nowhere near empty in the lane in the Florida Derby. He was tired from setting a very fast pace, while wide, running further than he has run before, with very little foundation for a 1 1/8 race. Perfectly acceptable.
Be careful creating an injury that didn\'t happen.
Jimbo66 wrote:
\"He does not have a distance pedigree\"
From Bloodhorse:
\"Although Big Brown is by Boundary, a sprinter who has sired only sprinters and milers, it must be noted that Boundary is by Danzig, and his dam, Edge, is by Damascus out of the top-class stakes winner Ponte Vecchio, a daughter of Round Table. Big Brown's dam, Mien, is by Nureyev (by Northern Dancer), out of a Lear Fan (by Roberto) mare. And Big Brown is inbred top and bottom to Damascus, Round Table, and Northern Dancer, giving him a Classic-heavy dosage profile of 4-7-23-2-0 and a 1.67 dosage index, for all those who still follow dosage.\"
The absence of evidence, is not the evidence of absence!
Jimbo,
I\'m watching the post race reports. To this point its still Dutrow talking happy talk.
I\'m fairly adept at picking up the little things in a race that may alter outcomes later. That said, I\'m not a horse whisperer. I\'ve watched that FlaDerby stretch run a few times now and I don\'t see anything to believe that something akin to infirmity is there. He wiggled out, wiggled in then wiggled out again, but the more I watch it the more I\'m convinced that this time its a case of a horse hearing a loud crowd for the first time. The crowd went absolutely apeshit. (Had to come up with a Youtube home video to see that.) I love the way that horse moves, even the way he moved in the last eighth.
Like you said, he came home drawing away in just under 13 seconds after that initial half mile.
Theres lots of folks talking \"miler\" talk. Yeah....he\'ll get a mile.
jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Wheelaway? I am not sure I get that comparison.
> He was my bet in that Belmont and he sat the trip
> right behind the cheap speed (commendable) and
> then came up empty in the lane, and then later
> they found some kind of injury.
>
> Big Brown came up nowhere near empty in the lane
> in the Florida Derby. He was tired from setting a
> very fast pace, while wide, running further than
> he has run before, with very little foundation for
> a 1 1/8 race. Perfectly acceptable.
>
> Be careful creating an injury that didn\'t happen.
I think the filly race fell apart so it probably should be marked with a modest figure. A 106 for Big Brown considering the torrid pace he set is an outstanding figure. We will see how TG marks it but I believe it will be consistent with Beyer adding the ground loss factor.
None of these guys incorporate the \"gun factor\" into their figures so make your own judgement. This was a huge effort by Big Brown. He needs to hold his flesh and get over the CD track good. If he can\'t even do one of the two he is cooked. If he can do both he is gone. Game over.
There are no Spanish Chestnuts and Going Wilds that are appearing on the horizon to be entered Derby Day and sabotage the race and pace. War Pass couldn\'t out-sprint the horses at Tampa. How does he go with Big Brown.
Less than a week ago Ron Anderson and Jerry Brown guaranteed Pyro would win the Derby. Wonder what they are thinking now...............
Ronwar,
Like I said, if you dig enough, you can always find what you want to see in a horse\'s pedigree. I will stick with the opening line of that pedigree analysis. Boundary has sired only sprinters and milers.
If he runs up the track, I will be \"right\", I guess. If he wins, then the deeper pedigree analysis will be \"right\".
Chuckles_the_Clown2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Jimbo,
>
> I\'m watching the post race reports. To this point
> its still Dutrow talking happy talk.
>
> I\'m fairly adept at picking up the little things
> in a race that may alter outcomes later. That
> said, I\'m not a horse whisperer. I\'ve watched that
> FlaDerby stretch run a few times now and I don\'t
> see anything to believe that something akin to
> infirmity is there. He wiggled out, wiggled in
> then wiggled out again, but the more I watch it
> the more I\'m convinced that this time its a case
> of a horse hearing a loud crowd for the first
> time. The crowd went absolutely apeshit. (Had to
> come up with a Youtube home video to see that.) I
> love the way that horse moves, even the way he
> moved in the last eighth.
>
> Like you said, he came home drawing away in just
> under 13 seconds after that initial half mile.
>
> Theres lots of folks talking \"miler\" talk.
> Yeah....he\'ll get a mile.
from the Bloodhorse:
\"The only odd thing was jockey Kent Desormeaux pulling on the left rein a total of seven times after the colt appeared to drift out slightly. Even as he drifted back toward the rail, Desormeaux kept pulling on the left rein. At one point, Desormeaux's butt went flying off the left side of the horse's body before popping back over the saddle. When it did, Big Brown became a bit unbalanced and dipped his head and shoulder for one stride. It didn't affect the stretch run; it just made for an awkward moment. After hitting him one time, Desormeaux hand rode him the rest of the way, with the two perfectly back in sync. All in all, it was an excellent ride by Desormeaux, breaking sharply and getting the colt to the lead without losing too much ground, and then letting him settle in stride down the backstretch.\"
http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=44339
jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Ronwar,
>
> Like I said, if you dig enough, you can always
> find what you want to see in a horse\'s pedigree.
> I will stick with the opening line of that
> pedigree analysis. Boundary has sired only
> sprinters and milers.
>
> If he runs up the track, I will be \"right\", I
> guess. If he wins, then the deeper pedigree
> analysis will be \"right\".
He just ran at 1 1/8 miles. How he ran that race tells you far more than any pedigree will. I wouldn\'t even bother looking at the pedigree. I\'d look at the horse and how well he finished going 1 1/8 miles.
Check out the stakes 2 races after the Florida Derby. Electrify won by over 8 lengths in a time of 1:47.85, about 3 tenths of a second faster than BB.
The turf race that was run in 1:45 and change only got the winner an 89.
jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Wheelaway? I am not sure I get that comparison.
> He was my bet in that Belmont and he sat the trip
> right behind the cheap speed (commendable) and
> then came up empty in the lane, and then later
> they found some kind of injury.
>
> Big Brown came up nowhere near empty in the lane
> in the Florida Derby. He was tired from setting a
> very fast pace, while wide, running further than
> he has run before, with very little foundation for
> a 1 1/8 race. Perfectly acceptable.
>
> Be careful creating an injury that didn\'t happen.
Maybe so, but it\'s interesting when you read Haskin\'s latest to find that Sheikh Mo had a signed contract for $2 million after his first race yet he didn\'t pass the vet due to an ankle. Might mean nothing, might mean something, might mean something but further down the road.
\"Maybe so, but it\'s interesting when you read Haskin\'s latest to find that Sheikh Mo had a signed contract for $2 million after his first race yet he didn\'t pass the vet due to an ankle. Might mean nothing, might mean something, might mean something but further down the road\"
Eight B,
.....It is also reported(unconfirmed) that the same people offered $30 million after the race. They are all one bad step away from disaster even if they vet perfectly. It\'s a total crap shoot unles they are immediately retired.
Mike
Jim,
Remains to be seen if he gets the mile and a quarter but I can\'t see anything that says no, so far.I\'m sure you noticed that he is a big long striding thing that LOOKS like he can run forever.In all three races he was basically running away from the field, showing no sign of coming back.
Now if he\'s hooked early, then we\'ll see if he\'s a special one, but it\'s certain now that he\'s faster than anyone else to this point.Unless Pyro runs giant in the BG, BB will be favored,imo.
BB may be able to overcome his inexperience with his big early gas.It was no small feat that he outbroke the field from post 12 angled over rather sharply(losing some ground) cleared by the turn, took pressure and still ran pretty fast the rest of the way.The long run to the first turn at CD should play to his strength,we\'ll see.
As far as him bouncing, I have to heavily discount that possibly since Tricky will be loving him for 5 whole weeks, which is an eternity for his magic to work.Trickys supposed lack of triple crown experience is a joke, that experience stuff is all voodoo if you have beast in the barn.
Would normally be salivating to stand against this type of horse but Tricky is peerless and I have too much respect/fear for his consistent magic.
Mike
I agree, and I still think Smooth Air ran a very, very credible race, He looked ok to me at the end with a nice finish, check out the replay. BB ran the fastest derby in years. Smooth Air was only 5 back and 7 in front of the third finisher. If everyone loves BB, why not the under the radar SA. I can see him hitting the board on derby day.
Rich -
Nice call by you and Upper Nile betting him at over 100/1 in the futures pool. Based on his pedigree and the fact that he took a step backwards figurewise when stretching out in the Sam Davis, I thought he wouldn\'t be able to handle 9f. I was obviously wrong. He\'s shown the willingness to run inside and the ability to make up ground running the turn. If he can duplicate his Florida Derby effort in Louisville and get a little lucky, who knows where he might end up.
Thank You, from your mouth to God\'s ears. He will pay 386.00 to win. A longshot, but a shot
miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> \"Maybe so, but it\'s interesting when you read
> Haskin\'s latest to find that Sheikh Mo had a
> signed contract for $2 million after his first
> race yet he didn\'t pass the vet due to an ankle.
> Might mean nothing, might mean something, might
> mean something but further down the road\"
>
> Eight B,
>
> .....It is also reported(unconfirmed) that the
> same people offered $30 million after the race.
> They are all one bad step away from disaster even
> if they vet perfectly. It\'s a total crap shoot
> unles they are immediately retired.
>
>
> Mike
I don\'t believe that rumor. If it was true, then why wasn\'t he sold? Who in their right mind doesnt\' take $30 million for a son of Boundary with only 3 races to his credit and bad feet? Are the owners so dumb to not realize that he\'ll never be worth more than right now and that $30 million? I don\'t believe it. These owners will claim to be offered something that never really was on the table but just flown at them to see their reactions.
The $2 million was a real offer since he was vetted (meaning the contract was signed). So in addition to having bad hooves, we learn he has something going on in an ankle that was enough for the Sheikh to walk away from paying pocket change for him. I think that\'s something to keep in mind when looking at BB and how he comes up to the Derby.
SA made a very nice eye catching move on the turn and was able to sustain thru the stretch...Very impressive! I think he definately took a step forward and winning the whole ball of wax is not out of the question.
I saw Smooth Air had a similar middle move in his previous race, but the pace was so god awful slow he couldn\'t make up enough ground.
I\'m am holding a 90-1 futures ticket on him.
ronwar Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> SA made a very nice eye catching move on the turn
> and was able to sustain thru the stretch...Very
> impressive! I think he definately took a step
> forward and winning the whole ball of wax is not
> out of the question.
not sure SA sustained the move through the stretch. he ran a :13.7 final 1/8 while drifting out over a quick surface after a perfect trip.
Big Richee Bee asked if the \"foundation\" issue bothers me. The answer is yes it does. It was on foundation that I couldn\'t make Curlin the winner last year and as fate would have it in the Derby, Curlin encountered trouble for the first time in his career and was life and death to get third.
That said, I\'m less concerned about foundation for BRB. The reason being, that barring a break mishap, he figures to run a race relatively clear of trouble. Foundation is what a horse needs to overcome adversity. Provided he makes the gate, I\'m really not projecting too much adversity for BRB. It will be a question of whether he comes in ready, can get another eighth, and how fast the half and six mark fractions are. My sense is they will be substantially slower than the wide fractional effort BRB just ran.
In my vision, War Pass comes back and wires the Wood. War Pass makes the Derby field and breaks sharp for the lead tracked a length (hopefully two) back by BRB. As they turn for the stretch the speed horses are on even terms. Splitting overmatched and tired horses three closers surge up into possible striking distance. One of them is Smooth Air.
miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Jim,
>
> Remains to be seen if he gets the mile and a
> quarter but I can\'t see anything that says no, so
> far.I\'m sure you noticed that he is a big long
> striding thing that LOOKS like he can run
> forever.In all three races he was basically
> running away from the field, showing no sign of
> coming back.
>
> Now if he\'s hooked early, then we\'ll see if he\'s
> a special one, but it\'s certain now that he\'s
> faster than anyone else to this point.Unless Pyro
> runs giant in the BG, BB will be favored,imo.
>
> BB may be able to overcome his inexperience with
> his big early gas.It was no small feat that he
> outbroke the field from post 12 angled over rather
> sharply(losing some ground) cleared by the turn,
> took pressure and still ran pretty fast the rest
> of the way.The long run to the first turn at CD
> should play to his strength,we\'ll see.
>
> As far as him bouncing, I have to heavily discount
> that possibly since Tricky will be loving him for
> 5 whole weeks, which is an eternity for his magic
> to work.Trickys supposed lack of triple crown
> experience is a joke, that experience stuff is all
> voodoo if you have beast in the barn.
>
> Would normally be salivating to stand against this
> type of horse but Tricky is peerless and I have
> too much respect/fear for his consistent magic.
>
>
> Mike
Could someone with some pedigree expertise explain to me why War Pass (by Cherokee Run) is viewed as very \"suspect\" to get the 10F of the Derby but Big Brown (by Boundary) is hardly mentioned as similarly suspect?
I realize the other side matters also, but I don\'t have enough expertise or information to know whether there is a legitimate difference or just a perception of a difference.
Fkach,
For what it\'s worth, WP and BB have superior mile and a quarter breeding to 17 of the 23 derby candidates acccording to the Tomilson distance ratings. Top, bottom and immediate extended family are used in making the rating.
Mike