From Steve Haskin\'s column:
http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=44221
On Thoro-Graph, Pyro ran a "negative-1" in the BC Juvenile. The only horse to run that fast this year going two turns is allowance winner Hey Byrn. The fastest two-turn stakes horses have been Denis of Cork with a "1/4", Elysium Fields and Big Brown with a "1," and Sierra Sunset with a "1 1/2." Well, Pyro, who clearly has not been honed for his top effort, has run a "3 1/2" followed by a "2." So, even though he still has a lot more improvement left in him, he's already right there with the fastest 3-year-olds.
"He's doing almost identically what Carl Nafzger did with Street Sense," said Thoro-Graph's Jerry Brown. "Both horses ran well enough at two to win the Derby. It's not a question of having them improve; it's just a question of having them get back to their best race. Both these trainers have clearly taken a path where they're not going to have the horse expend any extra energy before then, and in both cases they decided to run on Polytrack in their last start before the Derby. Nafzger already knew his horse didn't love the surface, and Asmussen is smart and knows that all he has to do is basically get this horse back to where he was. He's clearly thinking about getting the horse to run his best race on Derby Day and I think he's doing everything right. At this point, I believe he's the most likely winner of the Derby.
"Everybody gets excited about races in February, and Derbys are not won in February. I think a lot of trainers these days are essentially manufacturing patterns, whether it's the influence of speed sheets or not. Todd Pletcher seems to think that way, and Asmussen clearly thinks that way. Whether or not they're looking at our data or Ragozin's, they're thinking in terms of a pattern."
So if Pyro runs a mediocre (or even horrible) race on the polytrack surface, Asmussen is pretty much going to have to go to the Derby anyway because he\'ll have to assume it was the surface (Pyro has never run on an artificial surface). Unfortunately, if it wasn\'t the surface, he\'s not going to have any idea that he\'s potentially sending out a horse that\'s not 100% or that needs more or less work heading into the Derby.
I know this worked for Nafzger last year, but he had a very good line on his horse on both surfaces.
I guess Pyro is also not too bad a horse to do this with because he would probably go to the Derby even if he ran a mediocre race on dirt.
However, I still can\'t see how running any horse on a synthetic track is an advantage in preparing for the Derby when for most horses it just clouds the analysis of how good he is in that snapshot in time or how good he is on dirt period. It can\'t make any of the important training or entry decisions easier.
If there\'s something to be gained from a conditioning perspective, then why not train over it and race on dirt?
\"He's clearly thinking about getting the horse to run his best race on Derby Day and I think he's doing everything right\"
....wonder what the other 19 trainers are doing,NOT trying to get their horse to peak on derby day?
Mike
When looking at the current 20 qualifiers, all of whom are very tarnished at this point with only Pyro appearing polished enough, and Big Truck\'s last was worthy of merit.
This race is the most wide open in years, probably going back to the Giacomo year, although that year we didn\'t really believe it was that wide open, until after the race was run.
NC Tony
Michael Dickinson says dirt tears muscle down while turf builds muscle up.
Well said!
The other 19 are throwing darts while blindfolded.
Asmussen has a little better hand to start with so he can afford to manufacture a pattern. He has a horse who has already run fast enough to win while the others have not.
However if Pyro runs decent in the BG there will be a lot of \"steam\" built into his price on the tote board. Mostly in anticipation of him doing something he has only done once and it was six months ago.
We are not talking about Woody Stephens or Charlie Whittingham here either.a good trainer but not yet a great one.
As Vito says,\" We shall see\"
To cash the Derby, you have to pick the winner. It takes a single selected as the winner to hammer the exotics combinations. If the host thinks its Pyro and he wins then more power to him.
To my eye there is a Vast difference between Street Sense\'s back figure, preps and Derby effort and Pyro\'s back figure, preps and projected Derby effort. But then, I thought Street Sense ran a juvenile -2 and don\'t think Pyro ran anywhere near a juvenile -1. I also don\'t think Pyro improved a point and a half in the Louisiana Derby.
Rather than factor Pyro first, my strong inclination is to beat him out of as much of the exotics as possible, because he very well may be favored.
There\'s several other reasons to play him out, but sticking to figure reasons, these are the salient ones.
Hopefully he makes the gate, because Pyro\'s presence will provide tremendous value in the race.
BitPlayer Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> From Steve Haskin\'s column:
>
> http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=44221
>
> On Thoro-Graph, Pyro ran a "negative-1" in the BC
> Juvenile. The only horse to run that fast this
> year going two turns is allowance winner Hey Byrn.
> The fastest two-turn stakes horses have been Denis
> of Cork with a "1/4", Elysium Fields and Big Brown
> with a "1," and Sierra Sunset with a "1 1/2."
> Well, Pyro, who clearly has not been honed for his
> top effort, has run a "3 1/2" followed by a "2."
> So, even though he still has a lot more
> improvement left in him, he's already right there
> with the fastest 3-year-olds.
>
> "He's doing almost identically what Carl Nafzger
> did with Street Sense," said Thoro-Graph's Jerry
> Brown. "Both horses ran well enough at two to win
> the Derby. It's not a question of having them
> improve; it's just a question of having them get
> back to their best race. Both these trainers have
> clearly taken a path where they're not going to
> have the horse expend any extra energy before
> then, and in both cases they decided to run on
> Polytrack in their last start before the Derby.
> Nafzger already knew his horse didn't love the
> surface, and Asmussen is smart and knows that all
> he has to do is basically get this horse back to
> where he was. He's clearly thinking about getting
> the horse to run his best race on Derby Day and I
> think he's doing everything right. At this point,
> I believe he's the most likely winner of the
> Derby.
>
> "Everybody gets excited about races in February,
> and Derbys are not won in February. I think a lot
> of trainers these days are essentially
> manufacturing patterns, whether it's the influence
> of speed sheets or not. Todd Pletcher seems to
> think that way, and Asmussen clearly thinks that
> way. Whether or not they're looking at our data or
> Ragozin's, they're thinking in terms of a
> pattern."
Almost everything JB says in that hypothesis is based on the fact that Pyro has ALREADY run fast enough to win the Derby, as a 2 year old.
The other side of that argument would be that comparing the fast two year old figure of Street Sense to the fast two year old figure of Pyro is not an accurate comparison because of the way those figures were earned. I know tradition says \"a number is a number on turf, dirt, or running on glass\". However, I will take the fast figure on a standard dirt track against a figure earned in a sea of slop, where more than half the field didn\'t run at all. First off, because of the beaten lengths and stretched out field on the slop, it makes the figure more questionable (at least to some of us). Plus, and maybe more importantly, unless the Derby is run in the slop, Pyro hasn\'t shown he can run that fast on a fast track.
The \"2\" last time out is interesting. I have to watch the replay, as I thought he had a rail trip, which would make the \"2\" seem too fast, based on the time of the race, especially relative to the fillies that day.
Also, calling Pyro is the most likely winner of the derby isn\'t really a value proposition in any kind of way. He is number one on everybody\'s list right now, and would probably be less than 3-1 in a 20 horse field, if the race was tomorrow.
Holding aside the slop figure, Pyro would be the favorite in a 20 horse field, with more than 1 or 2 horses in the race faster than he is, coming in. To me, sounds like a very poor gamble.
Also, calling Pyro is the most likely winner of the derby isn\'t really a value proposition in any kind of way. He is number one on everybody\'s list right now, and would probably be less than 3-1 in a 20 horse field, if the race was tomorrow.
Holding aside the slop figure, Pyro would be the favorite in a 20 horse field, with more than 1 or 2 horses in the race faster than he is, coming in. To me, sounds like a very poor gamble.
I like this point very much from a true gambler\'s standpoint.However,as a gambler
in a 20 horse field my objective is to hit the almost assured big triple and having 1 definite part of the triple is how I would view Pyro. A good sense of
trip handicapping is invaluable in this case and I\'ll concede Asmussen the benefit
of the doubt he\'ll effort all resources for Pyro not to get a Curlin trip.
I think that in the Derby, SO much luck is involved, you need to bet against the favorites and box longshots. If you want to bet a 3-1 shot, you have 364 other days of the year to turn 2 dollars into 8.
Why waste even one dollar on Pyro in any of the 3 slots? The dollar you save by tossing Pyro is one more dollar that might be able to have a trifecta box that pays 50k or more. If you are made of money, than you can box all 20 and start celebrating, but if you have a limited bankroll and you have to pick and choose, why choose chalk?
All this Pyro discussion makes sense if this was horse racing. The Derby is not really a horse race.....its a melee of 20 horses all bouncing off each other on a track that most of them have never stepped foot on, at a distance that none of them have ever tried with 120,000 people screaming in their ears. This race doesn\'t always go to the swiftest, but the luckiest.
Use the Derby to try and get lucky, you can bet on a 3-1 shot anytime. Try and crush the race. REALLY crush it.
Jim,
My tradition says that big wet track figures are only relevant on wet tracks.Dogma says a fig is a fig is a fig which gets disproven almost every day at every race track.Surfaces/trips/pace/race shape all go into why a fig is earned and sometimes a big fig is earned only due to a perfect storm scenario.Such figs are to be eyed with suspicion, a la big wet track figs.It all goes to the interpretation of the player which is reflected in the odds.
There are common horses with wet track numbers that are faster than any figs run by very fast champions.The fig maker has no choice but to award the freakish slop fig when warranted however such figs are bogus, in a racing sense and are rarely repeated unlesss the slop conditions are present.Even then they are rarely duplicated especially if earned by a \"no count\" runner.
Mike
Hailing the winner of two 1 1/16th races in March as the Derby favorite makes little sense to me.
I would rather see a 3yo who has pressed the pace and won or run a close second going 7f or a mile at some point in their career. Let\'s see some pace and finishing ability. How about let\'s see a win at a 1 1/8th!!
Horses that close at a 1 1/6th, over tracks with a profile which favors that kind of running style, doesn\'t exactly get me excited. You know what they say...\"It\'s not ONLY how fast they ran, but how they ran fast.\"
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Chuck,
You are forgetting that with the demise of War Pass, only two fast ones are left to challange Pyro(as of now) and they have issues Dennis of Cork(ridiculous management) and Big Brown(very inexperienced) and this Saturday will tell lots about his future as a derby prospect.
Agree that short priced, one run closers,should always have a bulleye on their back for gambling purposes.
Mike
Miff-- some of those other trainers-- especially those that have to worry about having enough earnings-- are much more realistic in their plans, which is to say they are concerned with having their horse run well right now. There\'s a lot of money in those preps. The only ones strictly thinking Derby are the ones who have top 2yos.
And as far as \"a number is a number\"-- you show me one sheets player who has ever said that all horses that run well on one surface run well on all. But when you are dealing with a horse with good numbers on fast tracks, I\'m going to assume he\'s not a slop freak until proven otherwise. If he doesn\'t get back to his top in the Derby, you and Jim are right.
By the way, I\'m not handing Pyro the Derby, or even saying I\'m going to bet him. But he is the most likely winner RIGHT NOW, which was my point to Haskin.
\"Use the Derby to try and get lucky, you can bet on a 3-1 shot anytime. Try and crush the race. REALLY crush it.\"
Very well said.
JB,
There are many sheet players(right on this board) who will argue that a blow out slop number run by a common horse is legit, I don\'t.For their info, following those horses history, most of the time it\'s not. Not saying the fig you award is wrong, it\'s right, imo,but it\'s value is only on sloppy tracks from my experience.Your point on horses that run fast on dry tracks as well as slop is something I totally agree with. Such horses are not to be lumped in with the common horse who just freaks one day and blows a field away on a wet fast track as Jim inferred.
Would not be surprised if Pyro runs back to his top slop fig because it was not that fast a fig and he did not\"make\" the fig, that was WP\'s doing.Pyro is now fortunate to be running slow figs because of race shape. You are giving credit to Asmussen for the way those races developed?? Don\'t agree at all that he\'s doing some special \"pointing\" of this horse. He\'s just been fortunate in many ways which you have to be to win the derby, aside from having a fast one going in.
Incidentally, Asmussen took much the same route with Zanjero last year and he got beat a pole in the Derby.Funny how a fast horse makes a trainer look smart and the slow ones don\'t even get them an interview.
Mike
Miff,
Did I miss something?...Is War Pass a pass? If not, I\'m not prepared to dismiss him just yet.
I love the way this race is developing with the betting public and the industry folks.
I\'m watching a couple colts coming along. Denis of Cork was getting some attention from me, but then he skipped a race I figured he had to run. Whether he gets included now will be dependent on his final prep, but he\'ll have to run a very satisfactory race to regain my attention.
I\'ve also got my eye on El Gato Malo and am very interested in another colt that I don\'t want to mention just yet.
Lastly theres a couple fillies I\'m dying to see make the gate.
Richuffian will insist that I don\'t have an undisclosed colt or filly that I\'m factoring. He believes that I\'ll spring the undisclosed 3YO\'s post race. I might not make them public in time for others to consider, but Native Richer is wrong and if they make the field I will discuss them pre off time.
miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuck,
>
> You are forgetting that with the demise of War
> Pass, only two fast ones are left to challange
> Pyro(as of now) and they have issues Dennis of
> Cork(ridiculous management) and Big Brown(very
> inexperienced) and this Saturday will tell lots
> about his future as a derby prospect.
>
> Agree that short priced, one run closers,should
> always have a bulleye on their back for gambling
> purposes.
>
> Mike
Chuck,
Having heard and seen the aftermath of the War Pass debacle, I am having great difficulty is granting a mulligan for such an inexcusable, despicable, performance.Not ready to put a fork in him but he\'s got to be giant in the Wood for me to consider him a legit derby threat.
Mike
I guess this is why horse racing is about opinions and getting paid when you are right. IMHO JB is giving way to much credit to Asmussen for his handling of Pyro and is basing it on the fact that Pyro is set to finally run back to his top in the Derby.
i am going with the theory of the fast fig being earned on a sloppy track and I am throwing it out. Looking at Pyro\'s other figs, he is a \"contender\" but nothing special. As the favorite, poor value.
And one other thing I was told about 4 summers back at Saratoga by a couple of Sheets experts. \"Healthy 3 year olds should get back to their 2 year old top no later than their 2nd start in their 3 year old season\".
I am pretty sure that isn\'t a misquote.
And who were those two sheets experts?
Well, Jerry and Allan at the Carolina Barbecue seminars....
Been pretty busy with work, so please pardon my ignorance if I missed it when he fell of the Derby trail. What ever happened to Etched?
Etched went to Dubai to run in the series of three races ending with the UAE Derby. He finished a tiring 4th in the first leg and hasn\'t been back. He was mentioned as a likely starter in the UAE Derby in stories last week, but wasn\'t in the provisional fields that were released on Monday. Godolphin\'s Triple Crown hopeful in the UAE Derby now seems to be Numaany.
Stubborn Sheik continues to send potential young stars to winter in Dubai only to fade into obscurity.
Mike
thanks for the info!
I had thought he might turn into something nice.
\"I had thought he might turn into something nice\"
So Cal,
Lots of informed East Coast eyes saw it the same as you.
Mike
Chucko Del Sol:
Its Ok to be contrarian. Just remember Richiebee\'s Derby winning filly factoid:
Both Genuine Risk and Winning Colors ran their final Derby prep against colts,
GR running 3rd in the Wood and WC dominating the SA Derby. Sorry I haven\'t had
the time to research what Regret\'s final Derby prep was in 1915.
Now I hear that Eight Belles(?), owned by Rick Porter, the man with the bowtie
who lusts for Derby glory, might run in the Ark Derby.This filly has developed
late, which is a nice way of pointing out that she was beaten at short odds in
her first 2 tries at Delaware as a 2YO. If she runs big in the Arkansas Derby
she is certainly a candidate to bounce like a Spaldeen in either the Oaks or
the Derby 3 weeks later; if I know Rick Porter, almost any kind of decent
effort in the Ark Derby will result in a Kentucky Derby start.
Bobby Frankel\'s Country Star has not run this year and has never run on a dirt
surface in her 3 lifetime outs. And Frankel, like Hall of Fame counterparts
Mott and Jerkens, has compiled an awesome resume which does not include Derby
success.
Proud Spell has iron form. A graded stakes winner at 2 and 3 and without
watching the race I would have to say that the 10 hole was no bargain in the
goo at the Shore in the BC Juvie. Of the three fillies mentioned, the one who
has the best chance against colts.
Selfishly, I hope these three end up in the gate on Friday and we will have a
good betting Oaks--and don\'t forget that Oaks/Derby gimmick.
Other Derby thoughts --I have a lot of catching up to do on the California
3YOs. I have not seen any of their races.
I\'ll play it coy -- like my friend Clownhill Native (or Plugged Chuckles)(an
obscure reference to the two co-faves in Genuine Risk\'s 80 Derby). The colt I
am watching closely right now has a 2 turn graded stakes win as a 3YO and ran a
very good race at CD as a 2YO.
The best Derby prep should be this weekend\'s Fla Derby. The trainers of the
runners in this race do not have the luxury of \"pattern making\" as most (all)
of the entrants need graded earnings to have a Derby shot.
I can\'t wait to see Frankstro in the winner\'s circle. And I hear there is a
special promo for all fans attending the Fla Derby live-- for $3 you get a
bottle of Frank\'s Energy Elixir and 2 shares of Magna Entertainment stock.
Richiebee - I have been watching the same colt. In fact, got a future bet on him in pool 2. Let the fun begin!
The Florida Derby has gotten me a little excited. I believe there maybe a couple of stars running. A few questions certainly will be answered. Is Hey Byrn and Big Brown really this good and can Tomcito dublicate his form over here? Interesting indeed.
Chuckles_the_Clown2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I\'ve also got my eye on El Gato Malo and am very
> interested in another colt that I don\'t want to
> mention just yet.
Clownstone: (an homage to 96 Derby winner Grindstone and his son 04 Belmont
winner Birdstone):
About that crazy cat El Gato Malo:
1) How have the El Corredors fared past 1 mile?
2) Very surprised that you point out a gelding who like Georgie Boy and Colonel John will possibly enter the Derby without having raced on dirt. Its a Brave New Derby World.
Jimbo-- and I stand by that reading of 3yos under ordinary circumstances. But in the few cases of manufactured patterns (Street Sense last year, possibly Pyro now) I make exceptions. The Pyro case is a little complicated by the slop, but we\'ll find out in May.
Personally, I hope he runs up the track over Poly. Then he might be a good enough price to use in the Derby-- like SS last year.
By the way, I\'ve only made one future book bet this year, and that came this week when I got down at 75-1 on a horse I\'ll keep to myself for the time being. Hint-- pretty sure he\'s running next week.
I won\'t comment on any guesses either way.
Well RIchVERMAN,
El Corredor has not had an overly noticeable stud career. However, he has gotten a couple that could run to 9.
Adieu
Wanna Runner and
Dominican. (NC Tony\'s sentimental favorite.)
Thought he had a hard luck race last, he may have needed a race and I believe is at least in Colonel John\'s league.
What I like is his pace style and remote dam side pedigree. Though that line is pretty much devoid of mares producing runners, this guy has already proven to be an exception. I like the female side stallion influences.
I\'m also of the opinion, this guy has some brilliance (snuck some chef de race in there) to him and is gonna love dirt.
I broke the Derby trend with a gelding and they don\'t bother me in the least. Maybe this guy won\'t get all crazy with the fillies that will run.
richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuckles_the_Clown2 Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
>
> > I\'ve also got my eye on El Gato Malo and am
> very
> > interested in another colt that I don\'t want to
> > mention just yet.
>
> Clownstone: (an homage to 96 Derby winner
> Grindstone and his son 04 Belmont
> winner Birdstone):
>
> About that crazy cat El Gato Malo:
>
> 1) How have the El Corredors fared past 1 mile?
>
> 2) Very surprised that you point out a gelding who
> like Georgie Boy and Colonel John will possibly
> enter the Derby without having raced on dirt. Its
> a Brave New Derby World.
Now I hear that Eight Belles(?), owned by Rick Porter, the man with the bowtie
who lusts for Derby glory, might run in the Ark Derby.This filly has developed
late, which is a nice way of pointing out that she was beaten at short odds in
her first 2 tries at Delaware as a 2YO. If she runs big in the Arkansas Derby
she is certainly a candidate to bounce like a Spaldeen in either the Oaks or
the Derby 3 weeks later; if I know Rick Porter, almost any kind of decent
effort in the Ark Derby will result in a Kentucky Derby start.
I think you\'re misjudging the connections. From hearing both Porter and Jones (Jones talked about this recently on the radio and Porter posts on his website forum), neither have Derby fever. It looks almost sure they\'re passing on the Ark Derby and going with the original plan of the Fantasy, and with that choice, they\'re not setting themselves up for the Derby. It\'s more like the Derby will have to fall in their laps by her doing extremely well in the Fantasy and the boys continuing to show that there\'s no real monsters to require a wave of the white flag.
Porter and Jones have both entered just one horse in any of the TC races and that was Hard Spun. That means their record\'s pretty good, and it flew in the face of all the pundits. I\'m going to trust that if Jones puts a filly in the Derby, whether it\'s Eight Belles or Proud Spell, he really believes he could win it with her.
After I posted, I wondered about the two men\'s record in the BC. Off the top of my head, he\'s had two with Proud Spell finishing second in the Juvy Fillies and Hard Spun finishing second in the Classic. I think Porter\'s only had two starters with Hard Spun\'s Classic and Round Pond\'s win in the Distaff.
Maybe it\'s the bowtie that puts you off, but these guys don\'t seem to run horses over their heads. Obviously I\'m an admirer of their filly but part of that\'s due to the connections. Porter is fan-friendly, and I enjoyed Jones a lot last year. He\'s a breath of fresh air, not drugging up his horses, no steroids, a real horseman.
Really good horses defy patterns. These guys should know their horses and listen to what they tell them, not what figures on a piece of paper supposedly tell them, regardless of the respect we might have for the figures on a normal basis.
Eight:
You seem to be not recalling Mr Porter\'s handling of Rockport Harbor
on the Derby Trail.
Maybe he learned from his mistakes.
Addendum: The story of 2 owners (Porter and the Chapmans, who owned Smarty
Jones) who had horses trained by John Servis is fascinating and ironic. The
story of course also involved Robert Camac, a mid Atlantic trainer who was
murdered by his stepson. The irony of the story (if irony is the proper word)is
that Mr Porter spent millions of dollars on auction colts seeking a Derby win;
the Chapmans basically raised SJ in their backyard and almost won the Triple
Crown.
Are you for real? The hillbilly has no clue. Hard Spun should have been something special at 1 mile on the turf, but thanks to his connections the world will never know.
A lot of people whose opinion I respect immensely think that Hard Spun was handled very well last year and was simply a cut below the best 3YOs. Other than getting that Grade 1 win at Saratoga at 7F (and enhancing the horse\'s value), I thought the season was an endless stream of strategic and training mistakes. I\'ll always think that horse had more talent and versatility than he showed on the track.
Wrong said:
\"Are you for real? The hillbilly has no clue. Hard Spun should have been something special at 1 mile on the turf, but thanks to his connections the world will never know\"
Wrong,
...The Hillbilly doesn\'t need a clue, just a stable of fast horses. Jones gets good results( thats all that matters) but I also think he\'s clueless.
Mike
I\'m not sure who this \"Eight Belles\" is, but to my eye he/she qualifies for \"Rookie of the Year\" and succinctly brings a level of \"game\" to the board that Mall first did. Hopefully, Eight Belles won\'t digress into pure Handicapping Tournament minutia.
Danzig over a Turkoman mare for a Turf miler? Turf miles where all the money is? You\'re not serious are you? (Later: Hard Spun did have a nice shot of Roberto in that female pedigree though) Hard Spun\'s only handicap was that he ran into a year when there was a huge presence in his division. Kinda like Hillary having to go up against Obama. When theres a bigger presence it makes it appear plans have come unglued. Though its certainly true that Hillary has gotten shrieky on her own accord. Folks forget that Hard Spun would have won the Derby with the least little bit of bad luck for Street Sense, but the red sea parted for that one.
Regarding Rockport Harbor, the torn off hoof didn\'t help, but he didn\'t seem to mature. Who knows why. It\'s certainly hard to put that one down due to bad connections. Rocky didn\'t die and he didn\'t leave the track a broken down gimp either.
Wrongly Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Are you for real? The hillbilly has no clue.
> Hard Spun should have been something special at 1
> mile on the turf, but thanks to his connections
> the world will never know.
fkach Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> A lot of people whose opinion I respect immensely
> think that Hard Spun was handled very well last
> year and was simply a cut below the best 3YOs.
> Other than getting that Grade 1 win at Saratoga at
> 7F (and enhancing the horse\'s value), I thought
> the season was an endless stream of strategic and
> training mistakes. I\'ll always think that horse
> had more talent and versatility than he showed on
> the track.
should he have been in the Bel Stks? obviously not. could he have been a champion turf miler? maybe.
but the connections danced all the big dances, made a ton of money, and have a healthy horse for stud.
how would the horse have handled the very heavy BC turf? no way to know. he loved the sloppy main.
in the end, the connections might not have been perfect, but they did ok in my book.
In addition to the Belmont fiasco, IMO he wasn\'t trained properly at times. HS was a horse that was tough to rate, but IMO he was sometimes trained like they were TRYING to get him to be less relaxed and more speeed crazy. That made no sense to me when they were trying to stretch him out and he had demonstrated early on that he could relax a bit.
Going for the Grade 1 sprint at Saratoga made a lot of business sense given that they had already probably blown one or two chances to get a Grade 1, but IMO it didn\'t make much sense to do that if you were also aiming for the Classic. I also didn\'t like the rider change fiasco.
IMO he would have had a better chance to win a couple of other races if he was trained properly in the Spring, given a vacation after the Preakness, and then aimed for the Haskell. I don\'t even have an opinion on turf.
The whole campaign gave me a sense of nothing being planned and lots of mistakes being made.
I guess where I disagree with a lot of people is that I give credit to the horse for coming out of that campaign with a ton of money, a Grade 1, etc... despite the training and helter skelter campaign. Like I said though, people that I respect ALL disagree with me. ;-)
richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Eight:
>
> You seem to be not recalling Mr Porter\'s handling
> of Rockport Harbor
> on the Derby Trail.
>
> Maybe he learned from his mistakes.
>
> Addendum: The story of 2 owners (Porter and the
> Chapmans, who owned Smarty
> Jones) who had horses trained by John Servis is
> fascinating and ironic. The
> story of course also involved Robert Camac, a mid
> Atlantic trainer who was
> murdered by his stepson. The irony of the story
> (if irony is the proper word)is
> that Mr Porter spent millions of dollars on
> auction colts seeking a Derby win;
> the Chapmans basically raised SJ in their backyard
> and almost won the Triple
> Crown.
And Smarty Jones was basically crippled in the effort.
Don\'t know what you\'re talking about regarding Rockport Harbor. Porter followed the advice of his trainer and when he didn\'t do well in what would\'ve been his final prep for the Derby, he bypassed the Derby. If he\'d gone on ahead to the Derby I\'d see your point, but considering he didn\'t, I don\'t.
Ocho Campanas:
I do not know if Smarty Jones was crippled; some would say he was a competent
ride away from the Triple Crown, but that was not my opinion.
I will not pursue this any more. This is old news. If you wish to pursue the
matter, use the excellent TG search function. If you search \"Rockport Harbor\"
and or \"Preakness\", you will see that I noted that RH was being trained too
aggressively through his hoof injury, which I believe he sustained in the
Remsen at Aqueduct. (You can probably even search the words \"No hoof, no
horse\"). I noted at the time that RH could have conceivably been
taken out of training (or trained less aggressively) and pointed for the
Preakness or even one of the lesser derbies.
I have nothing against Mr. Porter. I just use him and his handling of RH as
another example of (A)too much emphasis being placed on the Ky Derby resulting
in (B) young horses being sacrificed (too strong a word, I know) resulting in
(C) premature retirement of runners which (D)eventually hurts the racing game.
If you really want to go a few more rounds on this (I do not), use the PTP
message function; the Board should now be dedicated to the coronation of Big
Brown, the current fastest horse in the world ever. Hell, he went 3 seconds
faster than a field of \"graded stake\" fillies, the best of whom was NW3x and
3 of whom were NW2LT.
TGJB:
Wouldn\'t be a 3yo colt by Victory Gallop, would it? A long striding grinder who has not shown much (yet!) as a 3yo, but certainly has a 2yo resume that made him a top contender in January.
Good Luck,
Joe B.