Hi! I just wondered if someone could agree with this logic. After going through the Hawthorne card today I came up with a very unexpected nap, because when I first quickly looked through I had the race as a sure no bet or minimal stakes race.
As above, the race is Hawthorne R5(21th march), a maiden special weight, 26 K.
A race with both very unexposed and unraced fillies. I soon made my focus on 3 fillies, Sweetest Lil Star(7/2), and the two stablemates Lakeaway(4/1) and Taking the Gold(6/1). Of those who had raced, Sweetest Lil Star looked the strongest by far. Unruly pre-start, bobbled at start went 3 wide with a late interest in a 5,5 f race to finish 3rd at 19/1, 7 lengths off the winner(who only carried 113 against SLS\'s 120). With todays distance at 6 furlongs, 2nd time out and with a bit trouble 1st time out, I think its fair to put her on a performance around a figure of 12.
Taking the Gold finished on a figure of 17, also her with a bit troubled break, but she didn\'t look to have room for the same improvement as Sweetest Lil Star. Anyway, the newcommer Lakeaway worried me, and I felt like she was the key to this race. Block has good stats for his newcommers, and Perez is also a good jockeybooking. Recently he has struggled with his newcommers though, and the last 3 have been unplaced favourites, and that\'s a bit worrying if youre planning to back it. But, last two workouts have been really good, specially the workout 10th march where she was the fastest of 63 runners and posted a bullet workout of 59ยด3 B. That workout certainly will attract a lot of money tonight, and I will not be surprised if Lakeaway goes off as the favourite.
What I found that interested me a lot, was that her stable mate that also is running tonight, Taking the Gold also posted a workout the same day, and she was 9/63 around 1,5 seconds behind Lakeaway. With a bit of calculation I transformed that to a 4-5 lengths difference between Lakeaway and Taking the Golf over 6 furlongs, and that transformed to a figure again I gave her at best a 12-13, if everything works out well for her. That\'s about the same level I have Sweetest Lil Star at, but if you then add to your opinion Blocks terrible form lately with his newcommers and the usual problems every newcommer have to conquer, I suddenly have Sweetest Lil Star probably way clear in my notebook and the best bet of the day on Hawthorne.
I know this is extremely speculative and also that workouts could be very unreliable, for all I know Taking the Gold might have improved drastically and they will finish 1st and 2nd, but those calculations was enough for me to get confidence in Sweetest Lil Star and I look forward to bet in the race, win or lose.
What do you think, is this crazy talk from a young Norwegian without a clue about anything?
Good luck tonight anyways,
Best Regards,
Aksel
det er et skam at lobet var annullereded- du har arbejdet saa haardt!
The Dane,
Thor
Frosty the Snowman won out Dave. For what its worth - Simon Bray on TVG also liked your horse. Next time