http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=44021
Denis of Cork to skip Rebel partially based on the fast T-Graph # he received in his last race...
I\'m curious whether they\'ve had offers to buy all or part of the horse and whether such offers (in addition to the prep considerations discussed in the \"little help\" thread) may have affected the schedule.
The revised schedule reminds me of what John Ward did with Monarchos.
Does anyone know if Ragozin is on board with the fast fig?
How does this resemble Monarchos? Monarchos went from allowance to the Florida Derby to the Wood Memorial-- a rather traditional path.
Denis of Cork is a complete toss for me now. Anytime horses miss scheduled races, it\'s a bad thing.
EJXD2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> How does this resemble Monarchos? Monarchos went
> from allowance to the Florida Derby to the Wood
> Memorial-- a rather traditional path.
>
> Denis of Cork is a complete toss for me now.
> Anytime horses miss scheduled races, it\'s a bad
> thing.
if he does what Carroll is suggesting in the Wood, he\'ll look a bit like Monarchos. the fast \'0\' in March, and the smart prep in the Wood, where he closes well in a 9f race, but doesn\'t spend all that much energy.
obvious difference is the # of races.
The reasons given by Carroll may not be the whole truth. The last effort may have been a bit more taxing than originally thought or he could have maintenance issues.These things are fairly guarded within the barn.
Beyer had the race about the same as TG and Raggie Richie \"thinks\" rags gave him something in the 4 range.That means the main fig makers kinda agree on the last #.
Mike
EJXD2 -
You\'re right. I remembered that Ward had been criticized for his path to the Wood, but now that I check, I see that it was based on an easy work schedule, not on the spacing of his races.
The Southwest Stakes, won by Denis of Cork, has become a bit of a \"key\" race
this weekend:
Second place finisher Sierra Sunset wins the Rebel;
Third Place finisher (dead heat) Liberty Bull wins the ungraded WinStar Derby;
Note: Sacred Journey, who dh\'d with Liberty Bull, ran last in the Rebel.
good observation...
didn\'t catch that
richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The Southwest Stakes, won by Denis of Cork, has
> become a bit of a \"key\" race
> this weekend:
>
> Second place finisher Sierra Sunset wins the
> Rebel;
>
> Third Place finisher (dead heat) Liberty Bull wins
> the ungraded WinStar Derby;
>
> Note: Sacred Journey, who dh\'d with Liberty Bull,
> ran last in the Rebel.
he\'s still my top pick.
interesting - DoC\'s 4th dam is Sierra Sunset\'s 2nd dam.
some very powerful Princequillo and Blue Larkspur genes back there.
overall, the 3 yr old crop is not showing a lot of strength.
Keep it up guys and you will cause DOC to be the wise guy horse, and no price at all. Watch his price drop in the next future pool.
If all goes according to plan, he\'ll have run again before the next futures pool closes. A lot of prices will drop in the next futures pool if War Pass clunks again in the Wood.
Can anyone tell me why D of C is shipping to Aqueduct for the Wood rather than
running one week later in the Arkansas Derby?
I understand that trainer Carroll may want to have 4 weeks as opposed to 3 weeks
for his colt to recuperate before the Derby, but isn\'t that extra week kind of
cancelled out by the additional shipping and acclimation that D of C is going
to be subjected to? (Yes I know the thinking is that air travel is not as
taxing on horses as old fashioned over the road travel).
D of C simply could have been left at OP after his win in the Southwest,
trained up to the Ark Derby, and then shipped up to CD or Kee assuming all went
well in Hot Springs. Instead he will ship to Ozone Park, to a surface and
surroundings he is not familiar with, and then assuming all is well ship to KY.
Is there some bonus (other than frequent flyer miles) that I am not aware of?
Hmm.
Elsewhere on the board, some hard boiled bashers of the breed are lamenting a
lack of quality among this year\'s Derby aspirants. With apologies to Edward M.
Kennedy, let me say this about that:
1) Last year\'s crop will prove to be a tough act to follow: Street Sense was
super honest and finally broke the Juvie/Derby hex; Curlin was brilliant and
looks to put a cap on a stellar career in Dubai next weekend; Rags to Riches
had one of the great 3YO filly campaigns of all time taking into account her
dominant wins against her own gender and her defeat of a game but slightly
weary Curlin in the Belmont; and Hard Spun was a hard trying but slightly one
dimensional sort who had the hard luck of racing in a year when more than
tactical speed was needed.
2) Two ways in which a crop of 3YOs was traditionally judged for quality was to
evaluate their performance (a) against older horses and (b) as older horses;
(b) has unfortunately practically become a moot point.
3) Although it doesn\'t offer an instant measure of the crop, some would wait to
see how the 3YOs eventually acquitted themselves in the breeding shed.
4) Judging a crop \"by the numbers\". The only numbers worth discussing are the
TGs, and again I will restate my belief that an administrative decision was
made on Varick Street to tighten the scale, to reduce negativity. Possibly a
backlash to superfast prep numbers given to Smarty Jones (who confirmed them in
the Derby) and Bellamy Road (who did not).
5) The influence of Horatio Luro and the lower Manhattan mavens. Horatio Luro
warned about \"squeezing the lemon\". TG and the men of Rag warn against racing
in the preps in a manner which will render a colt a bounce candidate on Derby
Day. Possible that Derby candidates of recent years, especially those without
earnings issues,are prepped more lightly and are not fully cranked for the prep
races that they do run in? Is it possible that the result of this conservatism
is a crop which some are calling slow?
I think we are looking at a good betting Derby,even if short priced bet against
War Pass has already been retired to stud. Pyro would assume the role of a
short priced favorite and if this colt\'s Nawlins races are any indication, he
will need a charmed trip (a la Street Sense) to get the job done.
Richiebee
If Big Brown or better yet Tomicto wins the Fla Derby impressively, either one could be very Chalky on Derby Day. Major hype machines at work! Lets not forget that something has to win the SA Derby.
Too bad Sierra Sunset is off the trail now, I think he might have been a good barometer for Denis of Cork. I\'m hoping all goes well for DoC in the Wood. Heck a closing 2nd to a dying War Pass would suit me just fine. Yes, I really want War Pass to win the Wood because I think he would be a fantastic bet against in the Derby. I was at GP for his Fountain of Youth day\'s public workout and he was gassed following the race.
The one problem I have with D of C is that I believe it\'s possible he benefited from a fast pace in his last race. I don\'t see it as a \"positive\" if other horses that ran reasonably close to that pace come out of the race to run well/better. Some of them probably ran better than it looks that day.
The one horse I think might be sneaky good is Majestic Warrior. Last year he got a perfect trip in the Hopeful when his two main rivals hooked up early. At that point I thought he was a good prospect, but possibly overrated off that race. Then he ran poorly in the Champagne and was later found to be hurt.
Right now, I think he may be underrated. Not only did he lose a lot of ground in the LA Derby, he made a big sweeping move past other horses like a vastly superior animal. Then he tired badly. He was probably a dead short horse in the LA Derby. IMO his race was a lot better than it looks regardless. It may be too late to get him 100% for the Derby. But if they don\'t run him into the ground trying, I think this horse is still an excellent long term prospect if he remains sound. Bad horses can\'t make visual moves like that unless the pace is collapsing. It wasn\'t collapsing in the LA Derby. IMO MW is probably a very good horse.
Sounded like Carroll really wanted that extra week for Denis to recover that an Apr 5 start affords. Shipping around not mentioned as a concern.
If current plans are still on schedule, Denis is either en route or arrived at Churchill. From there, it appears Carroll will watch the weather channel and ship to New York (or Chicago if Aqueduct is shaping up to be sloppy).
I do have to agree with you and wonder if Carroll is over-analyzing all of this, with the path through the Ark Derby looking less taxing overall. In addition, I think the Ark Derby offers more money than the Wood.
Richie-- I didn\'t do anything to the scale, and so far I\'m glad I waited. It\'s possible that the impending steroid ban and/or other measures have had an effect. We\'ll see how it goes.