One of the great sources for sifting through the developing horses is the TGraph Red Board Room. It is a great tool for getting a handle on the 3YO\'s and I for one am appreciative of it as a source.
My hypothesis has been that Pyro is not an exceptional horse. Visually, he has been impressive, but against the clock he has been fair to mediocre. Saturday, once again we had the same development. He looked good, but the application of fractional and raw time diminished substantially his performance. In essence, he was in with a group of lightweight horses and though I believe TFigs confirmed my analysis of Pyro, TFigs also revealed that I was not on the same page regarding Pyro\'s Louisiana Derby adversaries. I had factored a couple of them substantially faster than TGraph did and that was my undoing.
With perhaps one notable exception, it may be that the 3YO\'s are running a bit slower this year. That is my theory from other figures. If that is the case 3\'s and 4\'s at this stage may be top figures. Though if they are they are certainly slower figures at this juncture than in recent years.
Both Proud Spell and Indian Blessing beat Pyro yesterday...
Again
and by the way...Congrats on the exacta in the Louisiana Derby. Impressive.
Chuckles_the_Clown2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> With perhaps one notable exception, it may be that
> the 3YO\'s are running a bit slower this year. That
> is my theory from other figures. If that is the
> case 3\'s and 4\'s at this stage may be top figures.
> Though if they are they are certainly slower
> figures at this juncture than in recent years.
Chucklin Klugman:
As always, some thoughtful post mortemization.
Two points you might consider. At the end of the 06 (05?) racing season, our
host threw out for consideration the notion that he might adjust the scale
subtly and requested commentary. Not much commentary was offered and the matter
was not mentioned further by the Varick Street brain trust. If you would like to
undertake some serious study maybe you could look at the data and determine
whether fewer negative TG #s are being awarded now than were awarded in 05, 06
etc. Possible that horses are running about at the same speed but that the TG
scale has been tweaked? Remember Bellamy Road\'s neg 5 in the Wood?
Point two is that it is possible that trainers are not \"squeezing the lemon\"
excessively in Derby preps, especially after their charges have accumulated
enough graded earnings to be assured a berth in the Derby, as has Pyro.
Points noted Richly Blended...
But the fillies competitiveness with the colts leads me to believe its not a scale adjustment we are discussing.
I\'m of the opinion the colts are not as dynamic due to either a down year, or a training regimen adjustment unrelated to Huratio Luro\'s admonishion.
I\'m not confident the antennae have the Derby winner on the radar yet, which is a retraction from where I thought I was a month or so ago.
richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuckles_the_Clown2 Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
>
> > With perhaps one notable exception, it may be
> that
> > the 3YO\'s are running a bit slower this year.
> That
> > is my theory from other figures. If that is the
> > case 3\'s and 4\'s at this stage may be top
> figures.
> > Though if they are they are certainly slower
> > figures at this juncture than in recent years.
>
>
> Chucklin Klugman:
>
> As always, some thoughtful post mortemization.
>
> Two points you might consider. At the end of the
> 06 (05?) racing season, our
> host threw out for consideration the notion that
> he might adjust the scale
> subtly and requested commentary. Not much
> commentary was offered and the matter
> was not mentioned further by the Varick Street
> brain trust. If you would like to
> undertake some serious study maybe you could look
> at the data and determine
> whether fewer negative TG #s are being awarded now
> than were awarded in 05, 06
> etc. Possible that horses are running about at the
> same speed but that the TG
> scale has been tweaked? Remember Bellamy Road\'s
> neg 5 in the Wood?
>
> Point two is that it is possible that trainers are
> not \"squeezing the lemon\"
> excessively in Derby preps, especially after their
> charges have accumulated
> enough graded earnings to be assured a berth in
> the Derby, as has Pyro.
Chuck,
I agree in general but Pyro did get his last 5/16\'s in app 30.2 which is race horse time(slow early pace though). Whether he will have the same kick going longer while attending a faster derby pace is the question.
War Pass is bigger and stronger than last year and I like the way he finished in that \"workout\" last week he\'s yet to be hooked though.It\'s still only March but getting late and this crop looks very weak except for the top two.
The incomparable, peerless Tricky Ricky has a very lightly raced \"thing\" called Big Brown that bears watching.Tricky goo goo over this one despite bad feet.
Mike
It is interesting that the colt race went slower than the filly race again. Last time, the pace of the colt race was so extremely slow, it was easy to forgive the slow final time.
I can only conclude that those two fillies are very good, but Pyro has yet to really explode forward. Though he finshed well again.
Personally, I am not at all thrilled that Proud Spell turned the tables yesterday. I\'ve been patiently waiting to make a huge bet against Indian Blessing. It has been pretty clear to me for awhile that she\'s really more of a free running miler. She was winning longer because of her superiority. So it was just a matter of time before she ran into another quality speed that would use her up, drew a tough post, or ran into a true quality router than could run her down. Proud spell looked like the right kind of horse, but a 4 horse field, IB on the rail, a race with no speed, and $5.80 to beat her didn\'t look the ideal place to take my major stand. It would have been much better if she won, enhanced her reputation as a result of an easy trip, and set up a much better price and set of circumstances later.
Miff,
I think War Pass is a nice animal. I\'m also enamored with his moniker. It was well thought out and fits our times too. Sometimes those filaments touch and connect, but I\'m also a realist. War Pass has not been hooked and someone is going to run a rabbit at him along the way and that will be the acid test.
miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuck,
>
> I agree in general but Pyro did get his last
> 5/16\'s in app 30.2 which is race horse time(slow
> early pace though). Whether he will have the same
> kick going longer while attending a faster derby
> pace is the question.
>
> War Pass is bigger and stronger than last year and
> I like the way he finished in that \"workout\" last
> week he\'s yet to be hooked though.It\'s still only
> March but getting late and this crop looks very
> weak except for the top two.
>
> The incomparable, peerless Tricky Ricky has a very
> lightly raced \"thing\" called Big Brown that bears
> watching.Tricky goo goo over this one despite bad
> feet.
>
> Mike
Agreed entirely fkach,
A minor win pot was all that existed with a fair amount of risk. I too would have preferred a bigger field for a shot at a much more lucrative cash. (Not that I cashed much of anything)
Caveat, Indian Blessing did not look comfortable on that track to me. Gomez was all over the place and I would not be the least bit surprised to see the filly return the tables on a track she was more comfortable with.
fkach Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> It is interesting that the colt race went slower
> than the filly race again. Last time, the pace of
> the colt race was so extremely slow, it was easy
> to forgive the slow final time.
>
> I can only conclude that those two fillies are
> very good, but Pyro has yet to really explode
> forward. Though he finshed well again.
>
> Personally, I am not at all thrilled that Proud
> Spell turned the tables yesterday. I\'ve been
> patiently waiting to make a huge bet against
> Indian Blessing. It has been pretty clear to me
> for awhile that she\'s really more of a free
> running miler. She was winning longer because of
> her superiority. So it was just a matter of time
> before she ran into another quality speed that
> would use her up, drew a tough post, or ran into a
> true quality router than could run her down.
> Proud spell looked like the right kind of horse,
> but a 4 horse field, IB on the rail, a race with
> no speed, and $5.80 to beat her didn\'t look the
> ideal place to take my major stand. It would have
> been much better if she won, enhanced her
> reputation as a result of an easy trip, and set up
> a much better price and set of circumstances
> later.
CTC,
If there was figure sheet for controversial types you would certainly get
negative figs.To say IB and PS beat Pyro again is borderline ridiculous,but in light
of your intent,you\'ve accomplished your task.Regardless of the figs received for
respective races,Pyro\'s determination to overcome less than adequate trips goes to
character and class of the individual.These horses are preparing for 1 1/4 miles.If
it\'s a hotly contested pace and a good finishing time you want you\'ll just have to
wait until Kentucky.
Flight, I have a pretty fair record with these types of horses. Theres no controversy there. The record is clear. But I\'ll acquiesce that I\'m a better bet to get negative figures than Pyro. If you think he\'s beaten the fillies lately or Gasmussen is saving him, more power to you. I hope you cashed while the cashing was good. That second place horse made it.
-------------------------------------------------------
> CTC,
>
> If there was figure sheet for controversial types
> you would certainly get
> negative figs.To say IB and PS beat Pyro again is
> borderline ridiculous,but in light
> of your intent,you\'ve accomplished your
> task.Regardless of the figs received for
> respective races,Pyro\'s determination to overcome
> less than adequate trips goes to
> character and class of the individual.These horses
> are preparing for 1 1/4 miles.If
> it\'s a hotly contested pace and a good finishing
> time you want you\'ll just have to
> wait until Kentucky.
Louisiana Derby
Fractional Leader 24:10, 48:07, 1:13:86, 1:38:07, 1:44:44
Pyro 24:80, 49:02, 1:14:16, 1:38:17, 1:44:44
30:28
Fair Grounds Oaks
Fractional Leader 24:53, 48:17, 1:12:80, 1:37:40, 1:44:01
Proud Spell 24:73, 48:37, 1:13:10, 1:37:60, 1:44:01
30:91
In a nutshell, Pyro will keep winning as long as his competition remains weak.
Chuckles_the_Clown2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Louisiana Derby
>
> Fractional Leader 24:10, 48:07, 1:13:86, 1:38:07,
> 1:44:44
> Pyro 24:80, 49:02, 1:14:16, 1:38:17,
> 1:44:44
>
> 30:28
>
> Fair Grounds Oaks
>
> Fractional Leader 24:53, 48:17, 1:12:80, 1:37:40,
> 1:44:01
> Proud Spell 24:73, 48:37, 1:13:10, 1:37:60,
> 1:44:01
>
> 30:91
>
> In a nutshell, Pyro will keep winning as long as
> his competition remains weak.
a :30.2 or so final 5/16 with small trouble is fast.
Pyro once again gets the \"could have run faster\" notation in my book.
if you like the bottom of his pedigree to get 10f, you have to love the horse. I\'m still debating that if.
I\'ve had Denis of Cork on top all along as a price play, and I\'m still comfortable with that pick.
Thing is, in the Derby, Pyro won\'t be running at a 1:13.86 or even a 1:12.80. In the past five Derbies, they\'ve gone 6F in no slower than 1:11.8, and the average has been in the high 1:10s. That\'s a lot to make up in a 20 horse field filled with quality horses. But, then again Street Sense did it, so . . . .
My point precisely, rather than be behind by a length and two heads after six furlongs, he\'ll be behind by 8 to 10 lengths and in all likelihood going wide.
I believe you have to start with the premise that Monmouth day gets a line through it and is not factor able. In that event Pyro\'s top becomes a three. Pyro saved some ground in the Louisiana Derby, but his benchmark had been about a 3 and he looks to have about equaled his back form. Otherwise, the fillies ran to a level I\'m not sure fillies have ever run at this stage and I don\'t think that happened. Post race, Pyro appears to still be a 3 colt that has not really moved forward from his juvenile form.
Street Sense was a no nonsense -2 horse returning to his favorite track in the Derby.
Pyro is a fair horse, but he hasn\'t faced much except one horse and I don\'t believe the two of them, (Pyro at least) is head and withers above the rest. I think its because the rest have not yet matured into their top figure form. I\'m certain of two things, Pyro\'s current level of performance and the fact that these Fair Ground races have not been exceptional for a colt.
ajkreider Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Thing is, in the Derby, Pyro won\'t be running at a
> 1:13.86 or even a 1:12.80. In the past five
> Derbies, they\'ve gone 6F in no slower than 1:11.8,
> and the average has been in the high 1:10s.
> That\'s a lot to make up in a 20 horse field filled
> with quality horses. But, then again Street Sense
> did it, so . . . .
Chuckles -
A \"3\" may make sense if you compare Pyro with the fillies, but if you compare him with the horses running over the same track at the same time, you\'d have to think he ran 2 or 3 points faster than that.
I agree with your skepticism about the race over a sealed track in the BC, but a while ago I read a quote from Asmussen that Pyro didn\'t really handle that track well.
My issues with Pyro are his trip risks in the Derby and his breeding. You know more about breeding than I do, but I\'ve had the impression that Pulpit offspring get risky about 9 furlongs, and he\'s never been beyond 8.5. Adding in the likelihood that new threats will emerge in the coming weeks and the risk of illness or injury to Pyro, I thought 4/1 on him in this weekend\'s futures pool was too short.
BitPlayer Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuckles -
>
> A \"3\" may make sense if you compare Pyro with the
> fillies, but if you compare him with the horses
> running over the same track at the same time,
> you\'d have to think he ran 2 or 3 points faster
> than that.
>
It does make sense when compared to the fillies. I believe it fits with the Colts too. Pyro beat My Pal Charlie by three lengths. Charlie was coming off a 4 and took the short route. (So did Pyro)
The other way to look at it is Proud Spell ran about a 2. That would put Pyro right in with about a 3.
Another way to look at it is Pyro ran a 1, which in that case the fillies need to start in the Kentucky Derby.
Chuckles -
I think Pyro was 2W on both turns and thus 5 lengths (which I\'d guess is about 3 points) faster than My Pal Charlie.
Is it possible the track changed speeds between races?
Remember Althea?
Regarding Wide, I did not see it. I\'ll review the race later. I thought Pyro ran the rail with Blackberry Road outside of him. I thought I remember Pyro getting pinned down inside and having to wait for the hole to clear in the stretch. I was watching him pretty closely because I needed him beat to win.
Initially, I was somewhat impressed with what happened in the stretch. The more I factored the other horses (In the Oaks as well) the less impressed I was.
TGraph will be the arbiter, but I made it no better than a 3 and I\'m not sure it was even that good.
Some will say he was blocked and lost time. Maybe about a length worth, but I factored it a wash on the saved ground. If he starts, I\'m getting the feeling the Derby trip could be an ordeal for this one.
Depending on the track, he could win the Bluegrass and thus go off exceedingly short in the Derby.
BitPlayer Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuckles -
>
> I think Pyro was 2W on both turns and thus 5
> lengths (which I\'d guess is about 3 points) faster
> than My Pal Charlie.
>
> Is it possible the track changed speeds between
> races?
>
> Remember Althea?