Spotting 15 lbs. to 5 rivals. At 1 1/4 miles, how many lengths is that equal to? Any chance of an upset? Any figures for this race? Are steroids tested for in Dubai?
If
5 lbs = 1pt
1 pt = 2 lenghts (@10 furlongs)
Then
15 lbs = 3 pts = 6 lengths
S,
Any chance of an upset? Good question!! I think Curlins\' lifetime best is
neg 4. What are the chances he runs this number going 10 furlongs off the
layoff? How likely is it Asmussen wants him to run this number here versus his
next start given the purse amounts? Let\'s say the latter.With that said,then what
is a reasonable number to give Curlin? Zero? Neg 1? Neg 2? My guess is he\'s
very capable of running a Neg 2 off the break and probably will.(breath)What
then is the number necessary to upset him? Given the weight handicap of 3 pts is it
reasonable that a competitor can run a rail trip 1 or slightly better to accomplish the upset.Without the sheets we have to go old school and read the
DRF past performances.IMO this IS the time to bet against if there is value provided in the odds and the past performances suggest the 1 is capable by his
competitors.
Are there DRF PPs. for this race? I was looking online but I can\'t find any. Can anyone point me in the right direction?
I just got a quick look at the race...I could ride Curlin @ 245 lbs and still win the race in a hand ride..perfect setup race for the Dubai World Cup..Race over the track to familiarize and not break a sweat while doing it..Will win under wraps, I can\'t find a reason to bet the race..
Lost, where did you get the PP\'s?
NC Tony
It\'s not the form but it was all that I could find..tough to read..
http://www.emiratesracing.com/eq/pdf/FG20080228.pdf
Thanks Bud!!
NC Tony
why would assy run his colt 20,000 miles away at 132? gotta
be getting about sand as tiger got for golfing there> what a joke.
Thanks for those PP\'s ... whats he running in the -neg 4 range ? Big questions IMO : the shipping , surface , climate change , night racing and ability to compete outside of North America .
Lost,
I have to disagree.Based on times and weight carried it appears Curlin
may have a legit challenger in Familiar Territory.His last race at 1 1/4
was very impressive although we don\'t know who he beat.He did however run
very fast and will get a weight break of over 14 lbs. this go-round.
Thanks for the link by the way.
The race is a handicap and according to William Hill Radio all of his competitors are at least 9 lbs. out of the handicap. Also if you register at Racingpost.com site. http://www.racingpost.co.uk/news/home.sd you can get online form and pps.
Tom
\"why would assy run his colt 20,000 miles away at 132? gotta
be getting about sand as tiger got for golfing there> what a joke\"
Hey CubFan...I\'m not a big Asmussen supporter but I have to admit this is one of the smartest things he can do...The only real excuse for Curlin getting beat on WorldCup day was the uncertainty of handling the track and the environment. He took that out of the equation with this prep race...Truly the weight is just a formality because he is really running against what seems to be allowance runners and should not even be asked to run hard, If anything it will be a plus when they take some of the weight off on World Cup day...
With that being said...I still think Asiatic Boy can beat him on World Cup day..
The only reason to play the race is if you like someone to beat Curlin...If you have found a reason to play Familiar territory on top go right ahead, he does seem to be the only other runner with a remote chance...I\'ve seen all sort of \"can\'t lose\" horses get beat, why not Curlin...I tried and tried to find a reason to play against him but can\'t...Good Luck...The exacta looks pretty easy with Curlin on top of Familiar Territory...
I think the only way he loses is if they put him under a strong hold early, and Imperialista gets away with an easy first mile. He\'s got a lot of distance lovers back in the pedigree and could move up with the extra ground. I may take a little stab if the price balloons up to 15-1+ or so.
Imperialista quits at shorter distances consistently. Why do you think he would do better stretching out? A fresh Curlin will be anxiuos to run close to the lead so he probably won\'t get away from them...
Did this race run yet? Anyone know the results??
The lines I have seen of 3/5 and 4/1 don\'t show much value but 1/10 and 15/1, you might have to think about it.
Off at 12:15 est.
Xpress Bet odds-
Curlin 1/9
Fam. Terr. 16/1
Results 1-4-6
Curlin jogged to an easy win.
Imperilista didn\'t get away and folded again. Not a suprise, just the only way I could see the big hos getting upset.
I just got $9.40 to place on the 4 horse.
The money is in my account.
Exacta $4.20
Tri $18.10
Jet Express paid $81.40 to show?? 40/1
Source: Xpress Bet
Sandreadis Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Exacta $4.20
> Tri $18.10
> Jet Express paid $81.40 to show?? 40/1
>
> Source: Xpress Bet
there was no show pool. they are paying out $81.40 to place for a horse that finished third.
a mistake somewhere.
I don\'t think it\'s a mistake.
Last I was in England - many years ago - there was not W-P-S betting, only win & place, with \"place\" being anywhere in the first 3 or (I think) 4 finishers, depending upon how many starters were in the race.
Typical bet would be X to be bet \"both ways\", meaning the total bet was 2X and the bets were - in our understanding - for win and for show.
Bob
That is the way the Euros bet place, but it does not explain how in a 6 horse field with a 1/5 shot winning and a 7/2 shot finishing second and 40/1 finishing third, that the place payout would be
2.10
9.40
81.40
Notice that the 2nd and 3rd payouts are their approximate win odds. This has got to be a computer error. I don\'t think someone loaded up the place pool on a 25/1 shot.
You are correct. That makes no sense. I\'m not even sure they would pay for 3rd in a six-horse field. [obv, didn\'t read the string very closely] Perhaps they posted the win payoffs by mistake, per your point about them being in line with win odds.
I\'m stuck in Youtube and can\'t get out! Here\'s the video of Curlin\'s prep. Scary! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o63051ThX6Y