Nice choice for the ROTW, a large field of 11, all of whom are nominated for
the Triple Crown. Only 2 of the 11 have previously raced at OP, and I have
always thought speed/performance figs were most helpful where a race is
composed of runners coming from different venues.
That being said, my selection is one of the 2 runners who has been over the
track-- Liberty Bull. Although he is co- highweighted and not as fast as others
in this race, he goes out for Tom Amoss and top OP rider Eddie Razo Jr. I like
the spacing of his races-- he has raced once in Oct, Nov, Dec and Jan,implying
soundness. Hoping he can move forward off the pair up.
Amoss\' TG bears observation. In an 84 race run based sample at OP, Amoss has
clicked at a 17% win rate, but in a 37 race TG figure based sample, 51% of his
runners have hung up an \"X\"; also note that Razo/Amoss have a 28% strike rate
on a 241 runner sample.
Also interesting: LB a rare runner on which the pinhoookers lost money; he was
purchased for 37K as a yearling, then sold for 30K as a 2YO.
If I can get 5/1 or above, I\'m full of \"Bull\" but most of you folks already
know that.
OTHERS (commentary, not selections):
Turf War: Was the slowest horse in the race off TGs going into his Delta race.
This is a full bro to Grasshopper, who IMO generated much too much buzz in his
08 return, a race in which he saved ground and beat fairly routine runners.
Sierra Sunset: If you have the DRF, look at the way this colt has worked at GG
and Hollywood. Look at the speed and distance of the works. Then look at the
works on the Bill Mott entrant, Riley Tucker. Then consider the fact that west
coast trainers are quick to blame soundness problems on track surfaces.
Royal Hudson: Slow colt comes in from Hastings Park out in west Canada. If you
check the TG or the DRF \"Sibling Summary\", you will see that RH is a 1/2 bro to
Greenwood Lake. If you go way back about 20 years, you will see 2 other 1/2
bros listed: Success Express and Charlie Barley; TG says that the racing record
of these 2 is not on file; DRF\'s sibling summary says they were trained but
unraced. The truth is that Success Express won the BC Juvenile in 1987 for
Klein/Lukas and Charlie Barley was a Canadian grass champion.
The key to the SW is inside speed. Sacred Journey should lead a long way.........
8 Denis of Cork -
very nice \'5.5\' 1st out, closing 4 wide into a fast pace. got stuck behind a slow pace last while 4w/4w over an off track.
gets pace here, and should get a dry track.
wide trip the risk, but odds should be decent (8-1 ml).
Denis of Cork the key, use He\'s Eze and Turf War.
I like Turf War in the race. I\'m going on the theory that the slow numbers were poly related & his only dirt # is an indication of his dirt ability, not a significant forward move that will cause a bounce.
If they didn\'t dink around with the track, I\'d be looking for the best early speed in routes at OP again today.
With the exception of Eight Belles, who just toyed with her race mates, closers were up against it yesterday. Several horses who weren\'t much, TG-wise, broke on top or tracked closely, and ended up winning or in the mix.
Unless the track seems to have \"settled down\" in the early races, I\'ll go with richiebee\'s and spa\'s selections, Liberty Bull and Sacred Journey.
Also going to take a stand and toss Riley Tucker today. Mott has a runner here and no reason to gut him today, and I don\'t think they\'ll try winging from the 10-hole. Now, if the track *isn\'t* speed-favoring today...hmm. Dilemma. Watch the early races for clues.
Sacred Journey looks like an uncontollable speed type...he starts his races in 21 and 45 and finshes in 1:12...Can\'t touch him on the stretchout...
The more I look at the race the more I like the 10..Desormeaux should be able to outsmart most of these jocks and minimize the ground loss.
10/1,2,3,5,8 Tri and super keys...Good Luck
I played the #4 across the board. Looked good on track. Hoping Leparoux can switch him off down the back side along the fence...Good luck to all
I am taking the 1.
Deep gooey track in the Hutchinson and excessive training before the Swale had the starch knocked out of him in last
Trainer would never enter just to be there.
Thoro-pattern indicates a 36% chance of a pair and 36% chance of another X. Inside trip and pull in weights will help some more.
All or none play.
Got the 36%. Just the wrong one.