Great betting race at Laurel. My future father in law like his horse More Angels at a price. Bombed out big time last out when she should have ran better. I\'m partial to his horse because of the connections but IMO think it will be tough to find the winner circle. There is alot to like about a couple of these in here. I think a step back by Control System still puts her in the mix. Golden Dawn has run well since the trainer switch but the step up worries me. For Kisses and Baby Bird should be coming late and a fast up front pace could benefit these to. I\'m at a complete loss with this one. Any thoughts. I\'ll hang up and listen.
Golden Dawn looks like the play for me at those ML odds. She gets an inside draw while the fastest horses are parked outside. The weight shift is in her favor as is the draw. I would like to see her on the fence trying to wire this group. I\'m treating her like a new horse since the trainer switch.
Her \"bore out\" comment of course scares me. She has had plenty of time since then for Hushion to go over her.
8,10 / 5,6,8,10
10 is getting 7 lbs from the fav.
Magna pik 5: $72 bet
a) 8,10
b) 1.2.4
c) 1.8.10
d) 4.6
e) 4
I like Golden Dawn in here. Lightly raced and could be ready for a new top. Has a nice overall pattern. Will protect and play with Control System.
1. Take a Check 20-1 (113)--Better routing so she may be running at the end especialy since she gets the rail. But she hasn\'t developed in 2 years and won\'t now. In light.
2. Baby Bird 6-1 (113)--No faster than Take a Check but only 10th race ever here and ran top 2 nd time out, almost 2 years ago. Ouchy, and may be off an effort. On the other hand may jump finally but are you willing to take 6-1 when last top set her off?
3. For Kisses 10-1 (114)--Similar to Take A Check above.Small barn, same ability level, same lack of development. Nothing new is coming.
4. Golden Dawn 8-1 (114)--Hushion took over training 3 races ago and this filly has developed 6-1/4 points, with the last 2 a pair-up. Right now she\'s about as fast as the prior 3. She speedier than the ones inside and goes an extra 1/8th for the first time. Bore out last time and that may be significant here. She appears to be leveling out. Hushion doesn\'t ship often and is usually successful when he does but this one I think is going to be IT horse and will be lower than the ML. Needs to jump up again some and am inclined to think it\'s not coming today.
5. Devil House 20-1 (113)--runs tops and reacts but Levine gets her and she runs a slight new top off the layoff. Is she a new horse? She\'s only 1/4 to 1/2 point slower than the 4 above, and the 1 point new top is explosive if not damaging. That\'s the dilemma but you\'re getting 20-1. Volatile line. Levine doesn\'t do well as shipping to Lrl which will only serve to enhance the price. The kamikaze play.
6. Karakorum Starlet 6-1 (115)--a bulldog. This honey has never bounced sprinting and that\'s 17 races from age 2 to now, as 5yo. Now her last was a 2 point new top which makes her a bit faster than those above, or about even at the weights, so if there\'s a 1st time to bounce sprinting, today could be the day. But we\'re inclined to think not. A pair-up is much more likely. Just don\'t love 6-1, but have to respect this miss. She\'s just too solid.
7. More Angels 8-1 (115)--Second Levine horse here and really only has 1 number remotely competitive. Threw a bad effort in the Sunshine Mill Filles sprint at Sa so a rebound is likely but this babe is relatively slow compared to the rest. Tough to see her being a factor here and at 8-1 she\'s a huge underlay.
8. Control System 8-5 (120)--is the favorite and high weight. At the weights she\'s no faster than lots in here. Speedy and likely to lose some gorund, she also tries 7F for the first time. Her line is fairly solid with only 1 bounce, not a big one, and off a layoff. The problem actually the more I look at it, is that so far she hits a level and sticks. Her first 3 ever were fast and all earned the same figure. But something went wrong because she didn\'t run for 5 months. Her last 3, races 5 through 7 lifetime, are all 1-1/2 points faster than her first 3. She hasn\'t run in about 7 weeks, and has trained well, but as stated above, she concedes weight and is likely to be somewhat wide. She\'ll probably need better this time around and she\'s a short price. The more I look at her the less I like her. Tough to see her being out of the money since she is fairly solid but certainly worth taking a shot against.
9. Oprah Winney 9-2 (120)--is not the same horse she was when she won this race last year. If she somehow reclaims her past form, she wins but even in Dutrow\'s care, it\'s tough to see her rebounding after 3 bad, bad efforts. If she wins or finishes in the money, tip your hat.
10. All Giving 12-1 (113)--broke through to new top in slop last out and is effectively fastest coming in by a big margin, 2 points, 3 at the weights. On 15 days day rest, a bounce seems most likely. The new top is 1-1/2 points, not huge, but it did take this filly 6 months to come back around (although the top at the time was a 6 point move) so some reaction seems most likely. Gets the worst of the draw since she is a speed type and will likely be hung outside. Also this is her first stab at 7F. The price is seductive.
On the radio, I gave out 5, 8, 10 doubling up with the 8 on top. But the more I ponder this, the more I realize that 6 merits respect even off the 2 point top. You have to include her in the Magna 5. Probably keying the 5, 6 with others.
I really think Control System will be tough to beat in here...The only horse I give a chance to upset is Baby Bird on the inside with blinkers on to stay closer and then make a move..I\'ll use both in all bets but press with Control System. I think Oprah Winney should be thrown out in this one.
The magna 5 looks tough in the second and fifth legs......