I know this is a little off what we try to accomplish here but I was watching a report regarding the candidates ability to garner fundamentalist votes when a comment by Republican Presidential candidate Mike Huckabee insulted me. In a recent statement he associates gamblers with drug dealers, saying we must rid ourselves of our societies worst problems. I\'m sorry, I don\'t connect gambling with drug dealing. Just FYI.
Heatherk:
Without taking the dialogue on a path most posters/lurkers do not want to
travel on, I suggest you google \"Dan Lasater\" and you might see why, at least
in Arkansas, drug dealing and the racing game might always be linked.
Speaking of the people Huckabee is trying to get cozy with, I saw an interview
of Phil Spector conducted in the year 2000 where Spector was asked \"What do you
think of the \'Religious Right\'\"?
Spector\'s reply: \"I think they are neither\".
Richie-- I\'m trying to deal with the idea of Spector being quoted on a moral issue.
When I first came into the game, back at Ragozin\'s, Lasater/Dave Vance was the first move-up outfit, predating Oscar by several years. I think they won 40% of their starts at a Keystone (now Philly Park) meet. And they ran a lot of entries.
Meanwhile, I got down at 10-1 on McCain for the nomination. I make him about even money right now.
What is McCain\'s top and can he run a new one?
Mr. Spector certainly a few french fries short of a Happy Meal.
Lasater, who made his fortune by coming up with the idea to serve steak as fast
food (either Sizzler or Bonanza) was nation\'s leading owner for a couple of
years.
If I am not mistaken, he owned a very quick mare named Red Cross who was tough
to beat between 5f and 6f. This was when thoroughbred racing was conducted at
both Liberty Bell and Keystone.
I think Spector got a bum deal on that girlfriend suicide bit. Crazy woman offs herself in your bed and other than donuts, whats the first thing to cross a cops mind? But even a murderer can have a handle on the non religious wrong. On that account Phil Spector once again was dead aim on.
As for the Republican nomination, I\'ll take Huckabee despite his current monetary woes. The kooks are like a juicing trainer, its not hard to anticipate what they will do.
TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Richie-- I\'m trying to deal with the idea of
> Spector being quoted on a moral issue.
>
> When I first came into the game, back at
> Ragozin\'s, Lasater/Dave Vance was the first
> move-up outfit, predating Oscar by several years.
> I think they won 40% of their starts at a Keystone
> (now Philly Park) meet. And they ran a lot of
> entries.
>
> Meanwhile, I got down at 10-1 on McCain for the
> nomination. I make him about even money right now.
you fellas need to stick to the horses. my biz is politics and mccain better have a move up trainer with him tuesday. he\'s got one shot and one shot only and it is NH. on the side of right - the dem side - there is no stopping obama at this point. he\'ll win NH and win SC. after that, who will want to vote for HRC.
her speech last night was laughable with all the gray hairs standing behind her and HRC repeating change, change, change. very funny political theater.
the rep side is complicated. rudy is waiting to take on the leader after NH and i\'d give him a shot to clip them because he has a lot of bullets.
mccain at 10-1 was certainly value but i wouldn\'t make him even money now. maybe 3-1.
now to horseracing. i hit the pk6 at SA on new years day mostly thanks to thorograph. i was shocked when i saw the will pays thought they would be 10% of that. thanks for the good numbers guys.
michael
>Meanwhile, I got down at 10-1 on McCain for the nomination. I make him about even money right now.<
It looks like he\'s about 2-1 at the off shore books now.
I still think he has the same major problems he had to start with.
1. He isn\'t the favorite of the religious right.
2. He remains hugely vulnerable to attack on the illegal immigration issue.
If you remove those two groups from the republican base, you are left with a very limited number of republicans that will vote for him.
Plus, if he loses N,H. he\'s toast financially.
I see him as having a ceiling that will be tough to overcome even though the opposition is so poor.
IMO, his best chance is if it remains a 4-5 way race all the way through. That way he can keep getting 15%-25% of the vote and remain near the top of each primary. But if 2-3 guys drop out or fall sharply and he winds up going to head with either Romney or Huckabee I think he will lose that kind of contest because of the problems above. He might be able to compete head to head with Rudy for the religious conservatives because they don\'t like him either.
Do people really bet on these races?
Some people will bet on anything. ;-)
You guys are missing the point-- it\'s not about McCain, it\'s about the other guys, all of whom have huge holes in them that make them unelectable. After next week Romney will be a non-factor, Thompson will quit and throw his support to McCain, and Guliani will only have a faint heartbeat, leaving it primarily a 2 person race. In the long run Huckabee is unlikely to beat McCain (foreign policy experiance is too big an issue), and the nice things he\'s been saying about him may indicate he\'s already angling for VP.
For the record, if you go back about a month ago on this site, I said it would be Obama vs. Huckabee or McCain. At that point Obama was a weak second choice in the betting (2-1), the other two were 3rd and 4th choices in their party.
All of which, by the way, is very good news for a couple of customers of ours (and top contest players) who run the McCain campaign in a big racing state. And no, I did not talk to them before I shot off my mouth.
TGJB,
It\'s true that the other candidates are terrible, but that\'s the only thing giving McCain any chance at all. You are neglecting the fact that McCain is underfinanced, despised by everyone that considers illegal immigration one of the major issues (which is a hell of a lot of republicans if you listen to talk radio), not a favorite of the religious conversatives, and old.
He\'s probably one of the most electable republicans in the general election, but you still have to get out of the primaries.
This is a lot like a non-winner of 2 races lifetime.
You can\'t look at the first 4-5 horses, see that they are slow and have bad patterns, and conclude the 6th must be a huge favorite. He may suck too (at least in the eyes of many republicans).
TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> You guys are missing the point-- it\'s not about
> McCain, it\'s about the other guys, all of whom
> have huge holes in them that make them
> unelectable. After next week Romney will be a
> non-factor, Thompson will quit and throw his
> support to McCain, and Guliani will only have a
> faint heartbeat, leaving it primarily a 2 person
> race. In the long run Huckabee is unlikely to beat
> McCain (foreign policy experiance is too big an
> issue), and the nice things he\'s been saying about
> him may indicate he\'s already angling for VP.
>
> For the record, if you go back about a month ago
> on this site, I said it would be Obama vs.
> Huckabee or McCain. At that point Obama was a weak
> second choice in the betting (2-1), the other two
> were 3rd and 4th choices in their party.
>
> All of which, by the way, is very good news for a
> couple of customers of ours (and top contest
> players) who run the McCain campaign in a big
> racing state. And no, I did not talk to them
> before I shot off my mouth.
hi Jerry,
McCain is going to have to run against the 501\'s in the south. the 501\'s don\'t like McCain\'s vote on the tax cuts. just a hurdle to think about if you\'re for the senator.
all this noise and confusion on the Republican side might play into Rudy\'s strategy (especially if Thompson takes his campaign to SC). the far right doesn\'t like McCain, Huck, or Rudy, but they could very well wind up going with Rudy, mainly over taxes.
current prices for the nom are McCain 3-1 and Rudy 4-1 ... 7-1 and 10-1 to take it all.
Just as Huckabee will have a lot more money by Monday than he did yesterday, McCain will have what he needs after New Hampshire. The neo-con/big money only matters if they have a candidate, and by that time they won\'t-- Romney\'s gone, Rudy\'s close to gone, and his views on social issues are a big problem with the evangelicals.
Change is in the wind, as evidenced by the size of the turnout yesterday. The voters want fresh air and athenticity, and the ones who have it are Obama, Huckabee (\"bunker mentality\"), McCain (bashing ethanol in Iowa), and Ron Paul. They\'re the ones with the momentum.
I wouldn\'t consider betting the general, not knowing whether there will be 2, 3 (Bloomberg), or 4 (Paul) candidates makes it unhandicappable.
Play a McCain/Huckabee BOX and bet the mortgage in the general election.
Hillary is washed out badly in the paddock and kicking her stall. Obama is a Grade III type getting good at the right time.
And in England they can do it legally at their local betting shop.
Bob
Michael:
I do not know from the 501s, but to a certain New York Mayor the only digits
that seem to matter are 911. America\'s Adulterer is trying to convince the
voters in this country that he was somehow extremely courageous or
administratively brilliant in the aftermath of the terrorist attacks; the truth
is although he shouldered a greater burden than any other individual, he
basically did what all New Yorkers did--he assessed the damage, he mourned the
dead, he moved forward. I am sure that Koch, Dinkins or Bloomberg all could
have put on a windbreaker and a hardhat and said all the necessary things the
same way that Rudy did.
Rudy likes to make it seem like we rallied around him after 9/11, like we were
following HIM into battle. B--ls--t! Stop making yourself bigger than the day
itself. Stop making yourself out to be the biggest hero on that day, because
you weren\'t.
Rudy rose to the lofty perch of America\'s Mayor on the backs of a lot of civil
servants, many of whom now would no longer support him.
Rudy likes to take credit for cleaning up crime in New York. His detractors will
say that William Bratton should be given credit for that. Guiliani detractors
also might mention another Rudy Commish, Bernie Kerik.
Rudy the big Fed prosecutor-- it wasnt until RG already had his feet up in
Gracie Mansion that the Feds got crafty enough to eliminate John Gotti\'s legal
muscle, Bruce Cutler, and bring a case which stuck to the Teflon Don.
And I know personal issues should not matter, but Rudy the Courageous? Rudy the
Brave? His second wife found out he was divorcing her because she saw him say
it at a PRESS CONFERENCE.
The only positive aspect of a RG presidency would be that his third wife, La
Judith, would make us all long for the days that Nancy Reagan recruited an
astrologist to help out running the country.
Hey were doing OK here in NYC. Plenty of construction (more scaffolding than I
can ever remember), plenty of chain smoking euro tourists clogging the streets.
NYC picked itself up after 911, dusted itself off and moved forward. But this
NYers opinion is that it does not have as much to do with anything RG did as RG
would like to have you believe.
When I look at RG, I get the same feeling that a clairvoyant Christopher Walken
got when he shook Pres candidate Martin Sheen\'s hand in the movie \"The Dead
Zone\".
Gotta go bet FG.
Speaking of McCain-- GW Bush\'s nickname for the ex POW-- \"Hogan\".
Post Script-- as JB says, the Bloomberg factor is huge. Mayor Mike is no big
fan of Rudy; if it looks like RG is making gains I would not be surprised to see
Mayor Mike jump in and put an end to any hopes of a Rudy presidency
Richiebee-- Amen, and then some, on other issues. The rest of the country really has no idea how New Yorkers feel about Rudy (yet). My guess is that if they ran against each other one on one, Bloomberg would get 70% of the NYC vote.
I mean, it\'s been awful quiet around here the last few years, in a city not known for that.
richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Michael:
>
> I do not know from the 501s, but to a certain New
> York Mayor the only digits
> that seem to matter are 911. America\'s Adulterer
> is trying to convince the
> voters in this country that he was somehow
> extremely courageous or
> administratively brilliant in the aftermath of the
> terrorist attacks; the truth
> is although he shouldered a greater burden than
> any other individual, he
> basically did what all New Yorkers did--he
> assessed the damage, he mourned the
> dead, he moved forward. I am sure that Koch,
> Dinkins or Bloomberg all could
> have put on a windbreaker and a hardhat and said
> all the necessary things the
> same way that Rudy did.
>
> Rudy likes to make it seem like we rallied around
> him after 9/11, like we were
> following HIM into battle. B--ls--t! Stop making
> yourself bigger than the day
> itself. Stop making yourself out to be the biggest
> hero on that day, because
> you weren\'t.
>
> Rudy rose to the lofty perch of America\'s Mayor on
> the backs of a lot of civil
> servants, many of whom now would no longer support
> him.
>
> Rudy likes to take credit for cleaning up crime in
> New York. His detractors will
> say that William Bratton should be given credit
> for that. Guiliani detractors
> also might mention another Rudy Commish, Bernie
> Kerik.
>
> Rudy the big Fed prosecutor-- it wasnt until RG
> already had his feet up in
> Gracie Mansion that the Feds got crafty enough to
> eliminate John Gotti\'s legal
> muscle, Bruce Cutler, and bring a case which stuck
> to the Teflon Don.
>
> And I know personal issues should not matter, but
> Rudy the Courageous? Rudy the
> Brave? His second wife found out he was divorcing
> her because she saw him say
> it at a PRESS CONFERENCE.
>
> The only positive aspect of a RG presidency would
> be that his third wife, La
> Judith, would make us all long for the days that
> Nancy Reagan recruited an
> astrologist to help out running the country.
>
> Hey were doing OK here in NYC. Plenty of
> construction (more scaffolding than I
> can ever remember), plenty of chain smoking euro
> tourists clogging the streets.
> NYC picked itself up after 911, dusted itself off
> and moved forward. But this
> NYers opinion is that it does not have as much to
> do with anything RG did as RG
> would like to have you believe.
>
> When I look at RG, I get the same feeling that a
> clairvoyant Christopher Walken
> got when he shook Pres candidate Martin Sheen\'s
> hand in the movie \"The Dead
> Zone\".
>
> Gotta go bet FG.
>
> Speaking of McCain-- GW Bush\'s nickname for the ex
> POW-- \"Hogan\".
>
> Post Script-- as JB says, the Bloomberg factor is
> huge. Mayor Mike is no big
> fan of Rudy; if it looks like RG is making gains I
> would not be surprised to see
> Mayor Mike jump in and put an end to any hopes of
> a Rudy presidency
thanks Richie, but I\'ll focus on taxes, trade, health care, Iraq, and a few other issues.
btw, how much Daily News have you been reading recently? switch over to some time with C-SPAN. the 501\'s are more important than Judith or Nancy Reagan\'s astrologist.
and, in the end, Rudy\'s inability to provide a logical plan to end the conflict in Iraq will likely have me looking elsewhere for President. John McCain certainly does not pass the test either.
and cheer up Richie - I\'m not sure your tone is a winning one in the current environment.
It should be relatively easy to tell if the current or ex-NY City mayors quest to be Pres is really a viable one . Just consider whether a \"Cobra\" program will work on an international level ? or , Will \"Tennis for Peace\" work ? and what about , \"Red Sox Nation\" in the White House makes sense - right ? ...
The race for president is about as important as the 3rd race at delta downs. I don\'t bet delta downs, so it has no significance at all, which is true with the president\'s race. Like it really matters who the president is when the multi-national corporations control everything.
Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Play a McCain/Huckabee BOX and bet the mortgage in
> the general election.
>
> Hillary is washed out badly in the paddock and
> kicking her stall. Obama is a Grade III type
> getting good at the right time.
If Hillary doesn\'t finish ITM in New Hampshire it will be time to have her euthanized or turned out for breeding......either way the country is stronger but Bill\'s in for an insufferable 2008.......