Love to hear what y\'all think
The more I look at it, the more I like Golden Gate\'s 8th, mainly because I think the 3 ML faves have vulnerabilities.
7 McCann\'s Mojave - certainly a contender, but 9/5 is a real underlay. That 3 1/2 last race just looks like more of a payoff than an indication of a better race to come. Why? Last Sep when he started campaigning again off a long layoff, it took him until the end of January to get down to a race that would be competitive here. Granted, you could excuse the first 5 (!) races off that layoff (first 3 on turf, not his preferred surface; next 2 on sloppy tracks) but I think it\'s more indicative he needs another race (or 2) to get down to his best. And at 9/5, I\'m gonna try and beat him.
6 Now Victory - 5/2 ML; Baze underlay. He\'s a turf horse, and that\'s where he should stay. He\'s relatively heavily raced, with that relatively tight turf horse range of numbers. He just paired that lifetime top, indicating a better than average chance of a bounce. Is he a contender? Yes. Usable at 5/2, no.
1 Putmeinyourwill - 7/2 ML underlay. The last 3 are a plateau, not an indication of better things to come. Of the 3 faves, this is the one I\'ll be most tempted to save with underneath, mainly because of the rail post and the expected 7/2-ish odds.
2 Bwana Bull - 8/1 ML, a fair bet at 7/2. Toss the turf try in last. Toss the slop try 2 back on that nutty Mth course. (I think playing every horse next out after they ran poorly at the BC Mth meet is not the stupidest thing a horseplayer could do.) His expected bounce after the monster Mountaineer race was still a full point better than any of his previous races. Before that, he campaigned steadily for a full year, never moving backwards until the Derby. I\'ve never really liked Holy Bull\'s on the turf, so even though that last looks really ugly, I\'m going to view it as a price enhancer instead of an indication of a horse going off. Hell, I\'m gonna bet him even if the track comes up wet, especially if Hollndrfr takes off the front wraps. (Look at the trainer stats for front\'s off. Also look at his ROI w Bisono and the turf to synthetic move)
4 Pass the Heat - 12/1 ML, and a fair win bet at 8/1 or so. He\'s relatively lightly raced; he\'s only moved back once; I like the way his races are spaced, getting more time between races after each start, indicating his connections started managing his races more carefully, looking for the right places. It paid off in that Fresno stakes race; not bad for a horse that broke his maiden for $20K first out.
3 Norm\'s Nephew 20/1 ML. My ITM longshot. Although this isn\'t a pure third off layoff, it\'s close enough for me to like the trainer\'s stats in that category, esp. at 20/1. His normal 2 and 3change race puts him ITM.
8 Siren Lure - probably wants shorter, but at 8/1 ML, he\'ll find his way onto my exotic tickets.
5 Amazing Blue 15/1 ML - Although that last is almost a 4 pt move, he\'s had time to recover. He\'s a relatively lightly raced 3 yo. I see him moving fwd rather than bouncing.
So, how to play the race? Bwana Bull is my prime key to win. I\'ll also use Pass the Heat on top. Norm\'s Nephew ITM, probably a saver exacta over top 2. I\'m also going to use Siren Lure and Amazing Blue in my exotics, in that order. I\'ll then throw Putmeinyourwill into some exotic tickets. I\'m tossing McCann\'s Mojave and Now Victory.