The ROTW looks very playable. Cat\'s at Home appears to be a solid play and likely to outrun all but Lido Palace. Those two look like a good exacta box. Unfortunately, the small field and lack of competition may eliminate any value unless Express Tour gets overbet.
Cat\'s at Home's recent grouping as a 5yo is much stronger than any previous grouping even though he has not yet gotten back to his top. Everything now seems to be pointing back to that top including a switch to the red-hot Prado and that fact that the Henning barn is also hot. Add to that his affinity for the distance (5/10 lifetime) and he looks very strong.
Here is the computer sheets model odds-line for the race (the main input data are TG figs). The odds shown represent the \"break even\" odds for each horse given its estimated chances of winning.
Lido Palace, Even Money
Express Tour, 49/1
Cat\'s At Home, 2/1
Sherpa Guide, 16/1
Gander, 36/1
Baseball Champion, 17/1
Here are the Model\'s break even payoffs on the Lido Palace / Cat\'s At Home exacta.
LP over CAH - $8
CAH over LP - $17
Good luck.
Chris
Last week my view was that it wasn\'t all that hard, for me at least, to bet against an odds on Mdn in a stakes race, even if she was trained by the great Bob Baffert. This week my opinion is that LP is not only hard to bet against, he is impossible to bet against. For what it\'s worth, I think LP\'s dope makes his chances of winning the race 84%, or 1-5. One reason for the post is to question whether an exacta \"box\" makes sense in such circumstances, even assuming you buy into CAH. Wouldn\'t it make more sense to either go with a cold E or to weight the bet 90% LP over CAH & 10% CAH over LP?
More importantly, I question whether the pace scenario for CAH is going to be as favorable today as it was in his last three from inside posts at inside speed favoring Mon. If you think chasing a small exacta is the way to go, BC has more upside, the right running style, his last can be seen as a non-effort at the wrong distance, & this is exactly the kind of race where PDay concedes the win to LP & picks up the pieces at the end.