what do you guys think?
spotted a good filly a length and a half in ground and two more in weight, and lost by a half a length in a decent 1:47.9 (respectable :12.4 last 1/8).
and it was the first time in four months that she ran hard all the way around the track.
good performance in my opinion.
First off, you have to temper my opinion with the fact I watched Plech today and missed some decent opportunities to cash. There\'s just no way they can run Green Monkey at this stage and send him to stud a loser. I\'m stunned. Which indicates one of two things in my opinion. The Monk came out of the race poorly and may be done or Plech really can\'t resort to the good stuff right now for some reason. His early Belmont percentages are plummeting. I believe it was Miff that mentioned some undisclosed \"substance\" monitoring. Either that or Plech is reading this board and knows folks are onto him. I believe he\'s under 10% now.
If you liked Rags race, you have to love Tough Tiz\'s Sis too. She carried only 3 fewer pounds and was wide. They ran in the 2 range, maybe a shade better. Was pretty much wrong today, but thought earlier that Rags will not go on to confirm any kind of Belmont Stakes greatness. The Belmont was not a particularly fast race.
Michael D. Wrote:
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> what do you guys think?
>
> spotted a good filly a length and a half in ground
> and two more in weight, and lost by a half a
> length in a decent 1:47.9 (respectable :12.4 last
> 1/8).
>
> and it was the first time in four months that she
> ran hard all the way around the track.
>
> good performance in my opinion.
Chuckles_the_Clown2 Wrote:
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> First off, you have to temper my opinion with the
> fact I watched Plech today and missed some decent
> opportunities to cash. There\'s just no way they
> can run Green Monkey at this stage and send him to
> stud a loser. I\'m stunned. Which indicates one of
> two things in my opinion. The Monk came out of the
> race poorly and may be done or Plech really can\'t
> resort to the good stuff right now for some
> reason. His early Belmont percentages are
> plummeting. I believe it was Miff that mentioned
> some undisclosed \"substance\" monitoring. Either
> that or Plech is reading this board and knows
> folks are onto him. I believe he\'s under 10% now.
>
> If you liked Rags race, you have to love Tough
> Tiz\'s Sis too. She carried only 3 fewer pounds and
> was wide. They ran in the 2 range, maybe a shade
> better. Was pretty much wrong today, but thought
> earlier that Rags will not go on to confirm any
> kind of Belmont Stakes greatness. The Belmont was
> not a particularly fast race.
TTS ran well. she was very sharp coming in though. cutting back from 10f, perfect timing, great works; she was primed to run big. R2R was not.
we\'re probably looking at 8/5 or so in the BC, depending on who shows up. will not be an easy call
Mike D,
She got run down from behind, weight or no weight, a rather common performance for a supposed champ who beat a top colt.Perfect stalking trip and did not really even run away from the 3 who ran harder than RTR for the first 6 f.
Maybe she was not wound tight and needed this one bad or who knows. Fast raw times all week at Belmont so 1.47.9 is ordinary. With the weight and ground loss she\'ll get a decent fig notwithstanding the common performance.
Mike
Looked like the big filly was trying to bear in the entire stretch.
Even in defeat she looked much the best.
Guess Pletcher will run him w/fillies on Cup Day.
davidrex Wrote:
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> Looked like the big filly was trying to bear in
> the entire stretch.
> Even in defeat she looked much the best.
> Guess Pletcher will run him w/fillies on Cup Day.
She never had a prayer with Handicap horses pointing for a race. What happened in the Belmont was she caught a bunch of weary 3YO colts who were over the top. It was the only reason she eeked it out.
Now she\'s got a battle royale with her division, but shes got a pretty good lead on them. Six weeks rest?......Really?
She ran a great race,anybody notice the last tick before the start? Rags went 1/2 and the winner 2/1. Chuckles,money talks and you know the rest. On BC day, she is the most probable winner..............
spa Wrote:
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> She ran a great race,anybody notice the last tick
> before the start? Rags went 1/2 and the winner
> 2/1. Chuckles,money talks and you know the rest.
> On BC day, she is the most probable
> winner..............
I\'m not sure I agree that she will be the most probable winner, though I\'m certain the crowd will bet her that way. However assuming I reach that same conclusion I\'m sure I will assign a vastly different probability of that outcome. The key variable in my mind isn\'t Rag\'s ability, it\'s Plech in New Jersey.
I think we\'ll have a pretty good basis to factor Rag\'s effort off the Red Board tomorrow and to revisit some of her previous races too.
Granted in IMO Rags To Riches had never bounced and probably was due . But given reports of fever not long ago and looking ( to me ) like a different horse today makes me wonder how much those last two races may have taken . She seemed to change her action in the stretch and really labored - something was going on there + very clumsy or awkward at the start . . .
Rags was a sick filly and how often do they come back to win first out after the layoff? Not often - I can\'t remember any...betting wise, it was a situation where you had to have a backup (even though the obvious alternative was only 2/1). She will race before the BC, and then run the Distaff...winning by a very wide margin. She won\'t go in the Classic since her trainer already has that one wrapped up...my pik 6 post had 5/6, and that\'s why I had 3 deep in her race. Good luck tomorrow.
RAGS TO RICHES LOSING TODAY SHOWS THAT THE BELMONT RACE WAS A \"FLUKE\" AND THAT THEY MADE SURE TO KEEP CURLIN BOXED IN. FINALLY, A HORSE CAME ON HER OUTSIDE AND WENT BY HER. SHE SHOULD HAVE BEATEN THAT FIELD EASILY ESPECIALLY THE FACT THAT IT WAS RESTRICTED TO HER OWN AGE AND SEX OF 3 YO FILLES. TAKE NOTHING AWAY FROM LEAR\'S PRINCESS WHO IS A NICE FILLY, BUT RAGS TO RICHES SHOULD HAVE BEATEN THE FIELD EASILY STILL. DON\'T YOU FIND IT INTERESTING THAT ALL THREE PLETCHER HORSES OWNED BY MICHAEL TABOR TODAY RAN LIKE THEY DID. THE GREEN MONKEY, THE LEOPARD, AND RAGS TO THE RICHES ALL WERE NOT FULLY CRANKED UP. I DO NOT REMEMBER THE LAST TIME IN A BIG RACE WHERE A PLETCHER HORSE WAS PASSED THE LAST 1/8 OF MILE. SHE WILL PROBABLY GET A DECENT FIGURE OF 1 OR 0 BECAUSE OF WEIGHT AND BEING THREE WIDE, BUT AS FOR THE BREEDERS CUP, WILL SHE BE ABLE TO RACE WIDE AND OVERCOME THAT ON A SPEED BIASED RACE TRACK LIKE MONMOUTH?
Didn\'t like the way she was moving down the lane.
Barry Irwin Wrote:
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> Didn\'t like the way she was moving down the lane.
She has a problem,
but the Monkey is a GQ, Vanity Fair, looking beast for sure.
It\'s too bad he can\'t make a living posing! Cut and cute. A girl magnet.
He had no idea what he was doing. I think he thinks he\'s a movie star.
One thing these two beasties share is big-time thighs. Awesome looking, the both.
But Kelso was a ragged looker, and that worked ok. These are spun sugar comaparitvely now, pun intended. Hard to feel sorry for the connections I guess,
but I do - especially a young trainer that hasn\'t had this kind of bump before really. Chuck will probably track me down and burn my dog. kidding him.
the crowd was jumping in the 4th, the paddock was packed, wall to wall people, all talking about the 16 mil Green Monkey. Who, by the way, looked kinda small to me. Had him tossed before I even saw him. The winner looked good.
Actually I love dogs, cats too. I\'d be much more prone to try French Style cuisine. Maybe down the road a little Green Monkey Steak Diane. Maybe it was a schooling race for the Monk, but its pretty clear the horse has issues. That being the case his last race may just have been run or maybe his next race at Gulfstream Park is the last one. If he\'s ouchy I think they made a huge mistake bringing him to the races. Seattle Dancer never ran and had a stud career. By going to Stud unraced there would have been diminution in value but running and losing and heading off to stud makes for a major loss. The first mistake was paying that much for a horse with that pedigree. The second mistake was running to further erode the residual value.
I\'ve noticed Maktoum and Magnier are not bidding on the same horses this year. I have to believe that is an arrangement. \"First horse is mine, second up is yours\". I don\'t think such an arrangement is illegal. Its just more evidence the most money does not always land the best horse.
Post Red Board I have concluded that Rags ran dang near a spot on 2, right where I stated she would run. That calculation fits very nicely with the Figure history of both the winner and third place Tiz\'s Sis. The winner is a nice horse but will in all likelihood be a little compromised by the Monmouth surface.
Rags will be very beatable if she goes to the dance.
stillinger Wrote:
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> Barry Irwin Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Didn\'t like the way she was moving down the
> lane.
>
>
> She has a problem,
> but the Monkey is a GQ, Vanity Fair, looking beast
> for sure.
> It\'s too bad he can\'t make a living posing! Cut
> and cute. A girl magnet.
> He had no idea what he was doing. I think he
> thinks he\'s a movie star.
> One thing these two beasties share is big-time
> thighs. Awesome looking, the both.
>
> But Kelso was a ragged looker, and that worked ok.
> These are spun sugar comaparitvely now, pun
> intended. Hard to feel sorry for the connections I
> guess,
> but I do - especially a young trainer that hasn\'t
> had this kind of bump before really. Chuck will
> probably track me down and burn my dog. kidding
> him.
I dont know what 5 of 6 paid. But congrats. 3 deep eh? Well if they were the top 3 you handicapped it well.
I would strongly advise Plech to have one more prior to the Distaff too, but I don\'t think he\'s going to. He\'s gonna take her to the barn and try to \"fix her up\".
As far as walking away from them upon a move up in competition, I really don\'t think that is in the cards. Some think this filly is remarkable. I do not and I\'m gonna get her next time.
shanahan Wrote:
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> Rags was a sick filly and how often do they come
> back to win first out after the layoff? Not often
> - I can\'t remember any...betting wise, it was a
> situation where you had to have a backup (even
> though the obvious alternative was only 2/1). She
> will race before the BC, and then run the
> Distaff...winning by a very wide margin. She won\'t
> go in the Classic since her trainer already has
> that one wrapped up...my pik 6 post had 5/6, and
> that\'s why I had 3 deep in her race. Good luck
> tomorrow.
You raise some valid questions - but nobody really knows . Still , I personally don\'t believe the Belmont fluke scenario and haven\'t been persuaded otherwise . LP ran an excellent effort yesterday and take nothing away from the \'Princess - she earned that win . IMO R2R has a good shot to take the BC Distaff or Classic providing she\'s not more than 3 1/2 back coming into the MTH stretch and is % 105 healthy ...
fix er up, too funny.hows the testing in jersey?
I think it was obvious that her fitness was a question mark going into the race after missing training twice since the Belmont. TP was pretty much forced to run her in order to get a prep into her prior to the BC. All that said, I think it was a good performance by a short horse, but disappointing in that I believe she has the potential for greatness. As a fan, I was hoping for a win.
cubfan0316 Wrote:
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> fix er up, too funny.hows the testing in jersey?
Funny -- I was just going to ask this very same thing.
It\'s been said elsewhere that when a track hosts the BC, the BC org. takes over \"everything\", and runs the show themselves. Does anyone know if this is true for backstretch security, urine samples, etc.?
My opinion is that Monmouth is a little on the \"loose\" side (if you know what I mean)...not \"Delaware Park loose\", but loose just the same. Can we expect the presence of the BC to tighten things up there?
fkach Wrote:
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> I think it was obvious that her fitness was a
> question mark going into the race after missing
> training twice since the Belmont. TP was pretty
> much forced to run her in order to get a prep into
> her prior to the BC. All that said, I think it was
> a good performance by a short horse, but
> disappointing in that I believe she has the
> potential for greatness. As a fan, I was hoping
> for a win.
Well theres all kinds of ways to look at things. Plech is a very good trainer off the layoff. He really doesn\'t race horses into form. I have some strong ideas as to why that is true, but he had Rags pointed to at least 2 other races before this one and wanted to be sure he had her fit so he deferred to this spot. Now when by all appearances another prep would very much be in order, he\'s gonna stick to his modus operandi and train her up to the Breeders Cup. Another 6 weeks off or 2 races in 20 weeks. Go Get Em Plech!!!
I thought she came home well and really couldn\'t come home any quicker unless she ran slower early as she did in the Belmont Stakes. What folks have to hope for is that the weight and two turns are gonna make a significant difference, but I\'m 100% confident that what you saw of Rags Saturday not factoring those variables was as good as its gets for that filly.
Bring on the Distaff!
On the other hand, I agree 100% with your evaluation of what the Monk\'s race means. Something is going on in River City.
Rick and Cub:
Reading this board, with all the posters who are close to the game, most of the
performance enhancement in racing is allegedly accomplished through the use of
steroids (not illegal?), blood doping or packing (not illegal?) and designer
pain meds, the creators of which are usually a few years ahead of any effective
testing.
We always read about enhanced testing at Breeders Cup events. Has a BC runner
ever tested positive? And, before anyone gets excited about the level BC
playing field, just a reminder that Patrick Byrne, Doug O\'Neill and Richard
Dutrow are a combined 9 for 21 in BC events.
Every year I state my belief that the Breeder\'s Cup should be run in Europe
every fifth year or so, with all events to be run on the grass. One advantage
of this would be that we would get to see drug free racing, because we are all
repeatedly told that the Euros race their horses \"cold turkey\".
TP is a good layoff trainer, but this wasn\'t a scheduled layoff. This was a layoff caused by \"question marks\" about her physical well being and because she spiked a fever. There\'s a huge difference. It\'s true he skipped the last race to get her more fit, but IMO, if given a choice, he would have given her even more time. He simply needed to get a race into her before the BC. It would have been nuts to go in just off works.
>I thought she came home well and really couldn\'t come home any quicker unless she ran slower early as she did in the Belmont Stakes. What folks have to hope for is that the weight and two turns are gonna make a significant difference, but I\'m 100% confident that what you saw of Rags Saturday not factoring those variables was as good as its gets for that filly.<
I think you are underestimating her quality leading up to and including the Belmont (even though we probably agree on some matters about the Belmont). Barring all the recent setbacks, I might have even expected her to be even better now than in the spring and early summer. I have no idea if she\'ll go forward or not from here in the BC, but I think she\'s capable of a lot better than yesterday on her best even without any development.
>>Didn\'t like the way she was moving down the lane.<<
Good call Barry.