BC Questions and Comments
1) Questions:
a)La Traviata in the BC Sprint?
Very Subtle, Safely Kept, Desert Stormer...
It would be more fun to have her at a price in the big event than see her romp
against fillies and mares at a short price in the Friday race.
b)Sunriver back to dirt for BC Classic?
He was very good on the turf Saturday (seemed a bit rank and was pace
pressured the entire trip), but his sire already has one BC Classic winner
and of course he is brother to Ashado. Pedigree more suited to 1-1/4 on the
main than it is to 1-1/2 grassy? This move would certainly make a few old
school turf to dirt handicappers happy.
c)Which race does Hard Spun run in?
While the best fit might be the mile dirt race on Friday, owner Porter has
always been ambitious and thus HS could likely end up in the BC Classic.
2) Comments:
a)Langfuhr products \"outrunning\" Pedigree:
The Danzig stallion Langfuhr was a very classy runner in New York, winning
almost all of his races at 7/8s and one mile. Yet Langfuhr has produced 2
runners who will be logical contenders in longer BC events: Lawyer Ron in the 1-
1/4 Classic and Jambalaya in the 1-1/2 mile John Deere Turf. And without
disclosing proprietary information, Jambalaya has certainly \"outrun his
pedigree\" in that the sons and daughters of Langfuhr have not fared well,in
general,on the lawn according to TGI numbers for Langfuhr.
b) Pre-emptive Strike -- BC Trainer Win Percentages:
Many many BC posts on this board will mention the following statistic: Todd
Pletcher, 41 BC starters, 2 winners. With the help of the excellent NTRA BC
website, here are the strike rates of trainers with over 20 BC starters:
Richard Mandella 21%
Shug McGaughey 18%
Neil Drysdale 16%
Ron McAnally 15%
D Wayne Lukas 13%
Sir Michael Stoute 12%
William Mott 11%
Andre Fabre 10%
Aidan OBrien 08%
Bob Baffert 07%
Saeed bin Suroor 07%
Bobby Frankel 06%
Todd Pletcher 05%
Nick Zito 03%
Note: percentages were not given at NTRA site. These percentages the result of
what Jethro Bodine used to call \"ciphering\".
Very interesting reading, Thank you richiebee!
richiebee Wrote:
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> BC Questions and Comments
>
> 1) Questions:
>
> a)La Traviata in the BC Sprint?
>
> Very Subtle, Safely Kept, Desert Stormer...
> It would be more fun to have her at a price in the
> big event than see her romp
> against fillies and mares at a short price in the
> Friday race.
>
You don\'t think Dream Rush will take money or give her a challenge??
Dub:
I think that Tabor/ Biancone would be more likely to take a shot vs males than
would West Point Stables/ Violette. Just a hunch.
Head to head, and without seeing the TGs for each, I thought LT was more
visually impressive. Also consider if you will that LT is already a stakes
winner at MTH.
Most articles I have read following LT\'s Saratoga romp indicate Biancone would
prefer to keep this filly running against her own gender, but Tabor left the
door open for a run in the Sprint v males
richiebee Wrote:
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> BC Questions and Comments
>
> 1) Questions:
>
> a)La Traviata in the BC Sprint?
>
> Very Subtle, Safely Kept, Desert Stormer...
> It would be more fun to have her at a price in the
> big event than see her romp
> against fillies and mares at a short price in the
> Friday race.
I know it\'s out of fashion, but the mares above had quite a bit more seasoning when they tried the boys at 3/4. She is a VERY nice, though. I wouldn\'t want her \"head jerked off\" yet, and I would give her absolutely no chance to win at this point in her life. The oval favors her though, for sure, at least before they draw.
>
> b)Sunriver back to dirt for BC Classic?
>
> He was very good on the turf Saturday (seemed a
> bit rank and was pace
> pressured the entire trip), but his sire already
> has one BC Classic winner
> and of course he is brother to Ashado. Pedigree
> more suited to 1-1/4 on the
> main than it is to 1-1/2 grassy? This move would
> certainly make a few old
> school turf to dirt handicappers happy.
This would make me very happy, as I think that he should be \"under carriage\" sound and \"breathing\" due to grass experience at distance. I like his action and this makes sense to me.
> c)Which race does Hard Spun run in?
>
> While the best fit might be the mile dirt race on
> Friday, owner Porter has
> always been ambitious and thus HS could likely end
> up in the BC Classic.
It would seem to me that he could win the sprint, and has no chance in the Classic. I was impressed when he \"caught his breath\" against First Defence.
But they won\'t do that. His center of gravity is a little high for MTH two turns.
See your comments for speculation about what they will do - think you are correct.
He might be why Ron would have trouble.
> 2) Comments:
>
> a)Langfuhr products \"outrunning\" Pedigree:
>
> The Danzig stallion Langfuhr was a very classy
> runner in New York, winning
> almost all of his races at 7/8s and one mile. Yet
> Langfuhr has produced 2
> runners who will be logical contenders in longer
> BC events: Lawyer Ron in the 1-
> 1/4 Classic and Jambalaya in the 1-1/2 mile John
> Deere Turf. And without
> disclosing proprietary information, Jambalaya has
> certainly \"outrun his
> pedigree\" in that the sons and daughters of
> Langfuhr have not fared well,in
> general,on the lawn according to TGI numbers for
> Langfuhr.
>
> b) Pre-emptive Strike -- BC Trainer Win
> Percentages:
>
> Many many BC posts on this board will mention the
> following statistic: Todd
> Pletcher, 41 BC starters, 2 winners. With the help
> of the excellent NTRA BC
> website, here are the strike rates of trainers
> with over 20 BC starters:
>
> Richard Mandella 21%
> Shug McGaughey 18%
> Neil Drysdale 16%
> Ron McAnally 15%
> D Wayne Lukas 13%
> Sir Michael Stoute 12%
> William Mott 11%
> Andre Fabre 10%
> Aidan OBrien 08%
> Bob Baffert 07%
> Saeed bin Suroor 07%
> Bobby Frankel 06%
> Todd Pletcher 05%
> Nick Zito 03%
>
> Note: percentages were not given at NTRA site.
> These percentages the result of
> what Jethro Bodine used to call \"ciphering\".
I like that verb - what I think is kind of funny is that in not winning these \"Classic\" races, keeping horses \"towards the front\", winning the preps, TAP makes a zillion dollars a year, for years, and he is still a kid. Richard Mandella might not want to be Todd, but he would probably trade check books. Elegance and dough are not always parallel.
PS: Distored Humor was best at 7/8ths too. However for \"Ron\" to win at 10f, there has to be no serious 10f horse in the race, and I think Street Sense is a real 10f horse. I would need to see somebody to deal with Ron early so he doesn\'t get a 48 half. I always thought he was a very good 9f horse, dope/Pletcher/everything else aside. He looked great last year in Hot Springs, I thought. And I did think he just needed to relax, but I never thought he could relax into a mile and a quarter unless there was nobody else in the race. Of course, I thought that \"tractability\" amd tactical speed wasn\'t enough for Smarty Jones, either, so what do I know.
stillinger Wrote:
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>TAP makes a zillion dollars a year, for
> years, and he is still a kid. Richard Mandella
> might not want to be Todd, but he would probably
> trade check books. Elegance and dough are not
> always parallel.
They may be parallel to some people. probably the reason \"Mandella might not want to be Todd\". I don\'t think Mandella needs a loan.
I hope not, unless he has a great plan to finance, I am a serious fan of the man\'s work - I might encounter Chuck\'s ire when I say I admire Todd\'s as well, maybe not so much the style that he seems to have carried over from D. Wayne, but the organizational ability and every day demeanor that was a relief after Lukas\' show biz years. I find it very easy to like horse people of all kinds, and effective ones get respect from me - Born in the USA, and result oriented I guess, but still soft on horses, kids, and elders (who are less numerous than they were a minute ago). Being soft on horses makes it hard to go for the QH style too hook, line and sinker. Mott, Madella, Charlie, Shug, Woody,ya know.
The latter was inspirational in getting me to quit smoking. One morning I was standing next to him on the apron at KEE, having driven down from Chicago to watch Devil\'s Bag work, (that\'s a fan), which he did in what to my naked eye was 58. When the trainer corrected me with \"and a tick\", he sounded bad. After that, before the Derby, he was in the hospital. That opened my eyes on that habit.
Gary M did get me off a $23.00 winner at the Spa a few years ago. Trippi was boxed outside at 6f, needing the lead at 7f to do his best, while a beast I had seen out perform at ELP was inside with P, Day at 10/1. I got ready to punch the # sign when I heard the young Mandella say the horse looked \"hot\" and I freaked and passed. I know, it was me that freaked. The Amsterdam I think.
Just one of the reasons the Doc says it takes years!!
Are these girl names for real?
Ready for the BC?
This year?
I believe the Doctor - years girls, and then you still have to deal with what Bordercollie said on what was apparently a bad day. Cause it feels like that, many times in a year, and if you are not real careful, it\'s true at the end of the year.
P-Dub Wrote:
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> stillinger Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> >TAP makes a zillion dollars a year, for
> > years, and he is still a kid. Richard Mandella
> > might not want to be Todd, but he would
> probably
> > trade check books. Elegance and dough are not
> > always parallel.
>
> They may be parallel to some people. probably the
> reason \"Mandella might not want to be Todd\". I
> don\'t think Mandella needs a loan.
RE: LT in the Sprint...
Other than the increased purse there\'s not much incentive to try the boys in the sprint now that female sprinters have their own Eclipse Award. The only way you\'d see a female in the sprint going forward is if she completely dominated her division before that.
EJXD2:
Thank you for responding. I was not aware that F/M sprinters will be awarded an
Eclipse but indeed this is the case. This still does not change my selfish
gambler\'s motivation for wanting to see her run against males--she would be a
decent price against males, a short price with her own gender.
I would not have mentioned LT running against males except for the fact that
owner Tabor left the door open to the possibility after LT\'s impressive romp in
the Victory Ride at Saratoga.
Trainer Biancobra said at the time he would prefer to keep LT running against
her own gender. Given the fact that that PB currently has \"positives\" in
California and Kentucky, in addition to an ongoing investigation in Kentucky
relating to the search of his Keeneland barns, who knows who will be handling
LT come BC time.
I\'ve been told there\'s no such thing as \"Give-Away\" Day at the track but IMO the late P-4 potentially shapes up to be a P-2 w/ Rags in the Distaff and LR in the Classic .
Please, its bcup day, the get out for the year day. Your 0 for 2 already.
Yes Rich , it\'s the Breeders Cup - that much you got right ... And , at the current level Rags and LR have been running at , Nobody\'s going to touch them . Not only is the late P-4 potentially a P-2 but also the late P-3 is basically a P-1 . These are IMO the exact situations or conditions to play a P-3/4 . Assuming you\'ll be at the windows too , the exotic pools should be full of money ...
I\'ve seen a lot of \"sure things\" lose on BC day.
Thanks P-Dub and generally sure money is to be made going against those\"sure things\" ,and is a point very well taken ... but in this specific situation the P-4 becomes approachable for me with the possibility of a manageable amount of combinations when using two singles . I\'m not a P-3/4 player and will pass on it if not in love with the play when looking at the rest of it , but IMO sometimes - and this could be one of those times - \'you have to let those P-4 prices take care of themselves ...