I was able to get up to the Spa for the first Friday and Saturday of the meet,
and while I try to avoid weekends, and especially opening and closing weekends,
these 2 days fit well into a busy schedule. Observations:
1) The charm of Saratoga when I first started visiting in the mid 70s was that
here you had this awesome racetrack plopped on the outskirts of a small
Adirondack town; the track is still there, but the small town is all but gone.
2) I ended up spending a majority of my wagering time at the harness track: free
parking, free admission, cheaper suds. If you are going to watch the races on
TV anyway, a good alternative to the weekend crowds at the \"main\" track.
Absolutely no lines at the windows, comfortably air conditioned if you choose
to sit inside.
3) The golf course in the Saratoga Spa State Park is a great value at $29 green
fee for New York State residents; well managed so that a 4- 4 1/2 hour round is
almost assured. The course is in decent shape and provides a very playable
alternative to Saratoga National, which gets something like $135 green fee for
a twilight round.
4) While Lawyer Ron ran a career race (career race can be interpreted many
different ways by many different people) the most impressive animal I saw in my
brief stay was Emirates to Dubai, an even money winner of a 5-1/2 furlong turf
dash on Friday (July 27). ETD is out of Morn of Song, who I believe is a full
sister to Rahy. ETD began his career in England as a 2YO in 05, a beaten
favorite (2.25/1) in a 17 horse dash. ETD disappeared until May of 07, when he
broke his maiden in one of the many turf sprints run at this Spring\'s Colonial
at Belmont meet. Hopefully trainer bin Suroor will drop this colt into a spot
(I think he could be good up to a mile) where a decent mutuel is attainable.
richiebee Wrote: (8/13/07)
-------------------------------------------------------
> I was able to get up to the Spa for the first
> Friday and Saturday of the meet,
> and while I try to avoid weekends, and especially
> opening and closing weekends,
> these 2 days fit well into a busy schedule.
> Observations:
>
>
> 4) While Lawyer Ron ran a career race (career race
> can be interpreted many
> different ways by many different people) the most
> impressive animal I saw in my
> brief stay was Emirates to Dubai, an even money
> winner of a 5-1/2 furlong turf
> dash on Friday (July 27). ETD is out of Morn of
> Song, who I believe is a full
> sister to Rahy. ETD began his career in England as
> a 2YO in 05, a beaten
> favorite (2.25/1) in a 17 horse dash. ETD
> disappeared until May of 07, when he
> broke his maiden in one of the many turf sprints
> run at this Spring\'s Colonial
> at Belmont meet. Hopefully trainer bin Suroor will
> drop this colt into a spot
> (I think he could be good up to a mile) where a
> decent mutuel is attainable.
Emirates to Dubai is entered at Belmont Wednesday in the 7th race, Opt 50K
Claimer/N2X at one mile on the grass. He is 5/1 morning line.
Some significant variables. There was a period of heavy rain in NY on Tuesday
and if race remains on turf, condition may be other than firm.
This well bred colt ran 5-1/2 furlongs in 1:01 and change on opening weekend,
before the course became hard and dusty. The TG folks assigned this lightly
raced colt a number which puts him among the fastest runners in this race.
I will look to use ETD in a multiple race sequence (Pick 4 or Pick 3). The 8th
race, the More Than Ready, is a 3Y0 stake which features Tiz Wonderful, who was
quite precocious as a 2YO for Assmussen, and EZ Warrior, who won a grade 3 stake
for Baffert at pre-cushion Hollywood in July of 06.
Interestingly, Bruce Levine has Shopton Lane in the More Than Ready, and while
SL is apparently outclassed by \"Tiz\" and \"Easy\", SL is 3/3 this year and 5/10
lifetime. The TG people assigned SL a number in his last race at MTH which...
well I have already given up enough proprietary information. SL has California
kid R. Migliore named to ride, his only mount of the day (he is also named on 1
runner on Thursday).
I was not going to make this post because horses I post on pre-race are winning
at an embarrasingly low %, but I feel compelled by certain recent posts to
maintain a favorable handicapping/ \"crap\" ratio.
(Note: I posted on \"Some Thoro Topics\" on August 19. This entry was read in
excess of 250 times. The post concerned the identification of move up trainers
and the fact that certain trainers had high win percentages while their runners
rarely posted tops or pairs. For all the hue and cry that there be more TG
based or handicapping based conversation on this board, there was one response
to this post--from TGJB.)
Would welcome any comments or conversation on the 2 mentioned races or the 6th
race (NYB maidens) or the 9th race (maidens 6 furlongs on turf).
Belmont 6th MC 35K
One likely winner for me is 5 Straight Bush who has long cycles to move forward but should either pair this last effort or break through as has been the case after any of 3 previous pairs.
The other possible read is the 7 horse a huge class dropper from MSW ranks who returns to dirt after 3 failed turf tries. Hushion off a lay off always a contender
but price is probably short here. A stone cold closer in a sprint is always touchy.
Hopefully Luzzi rebounds from a horrendous Saratoga to get started in the fall meet.
The 6 He\'s Tough and 2 Final Authority have yet to put together two races in a row yet and should regress here but none of these is really dominant
So for purposes of the P4 I\'ll probably use all 4 of them
Belmont 9th 6 F Turf (inner) 52K 3 and up
My first choice is the first time turf from Lemon Drop Kid who seems ready to make Jenkins look good #8 Sleeping Indian
Also a must use in the P4 would Roi Maudit if draws in with Bill and Kent show from Toga laurels
Lastly another interesting first turf Giant Deputy #7. Nice works seems another ready to pop through.
Lot of talent here but these are my 3 for the P4
Thanks to Richiebee and the Doc for having a meaningful discussion! Good luck this afternoon!
Bee,
ETB was most impressive in those two sprints on firm turf, horses going from sprints to routes at the SPA faired very poorly but he is bred to stretch. The turf course at the SPA was brick like, Belmont today should have cut after the rain.Giant Gizmo, Prince Rahy and Op Red Dawn are formidable in a tough race for me.
Ez Warrior is a horrible breaker but ran better than his last fig indicates, hit gate, op++ and closed somewhat when no one else did against 2 very fast runners.Tiz Wonderful is the enigma in there.
I like Jerkens in the in the 9th with Frankel as a saver.
In the 6th, ugh race, the 2 and 7 by default.
Good luck, It\'s kinda cool today, maybe long sleeves.
Mike
Doc and others:
Thanks for the input.
Would just like to add re race 9 (NYRA website says turf \"Good\"), K- Mac\'s Crown Colony was effective in 4 grass sprints as a 2YO in Ireland (look at the size of those fields -- 15 runners, 16, 18, 20), then was unimpressive in 2 routes this summer at the Spa. Back to a sprint today.
Garcia/ McLaughlin pairing wins at high %, and grass champion Sunshine Forever
is the maternal grandsire.
Miff- long sleeves AND long pants- can the Big A be far away?
Miff- long sleeves AND long pants- can the Big A be far away?
Bee,
ugh, depressing, NY bred,maiden claiming slow rats, for 3 months
Mike
Richie, Mike solid anbalysis as usual. Will chime in with: 6th) He\'s Tough gets J.R. on the reride and the hood comes on for the frigid O\'Bien who I believe he is related to, not much to beat and much better spacing for this one. Adding Mr. Tough Enough who again draws the fence but should fare better against cheaper, second time blinkers after sealed course debacle.
7) Always leery against Storm Cats stretching as he passes on his breathing problem. Wish noms were out for the Kelso.. but still playing Prince Rahy as a single. He is bred to get better with age, has great spacing including a salty work last Tuesday and his last, sans the trouble would suffice.
Stake: Impressive resumes for EZ Warrior and Tiz Wonderful but neither has ran particularly well in a long time. So will add Flashstorm, a Storm Cat homer who has been pointed here for a some time.
Last) Will give Cherokee Flare another try after being caught inside while off poorly first time hood. Juddmonte homer is from a great mare ( Latent Heat, Art Master and the ill fated Indian Flare) and gets Raffie after a trio of nice works. Also Frank\'s Friend as he could not have had a more troubled debut and gets the hedge and terrific one run turf jock and Sleeping Indian who sports a typical work pattern that has led to success many times in the past for the \"chief\". Call it 1,6/ 6 / 2,4,6 / 8,11,12 Agree with JB that this board has big time talent posting, with more than a few that could use some clinical assistance. BBB
richiebee Wrote:
> Would welcome any comments or conversation on the
> 2 mentioned races or the 6th
> race (NYB maidens) or the 9th race (maidens 6
> furlongs on turf).
I was also very impressed by ETD\'s race upstate and can\'t see past him,
while the cut is there today, it isn\'t soft, and I like the move from
5-8f on the turf as a standard. As you will remember, he was in hand, Go
Go never had his stick out if I remember correctly. Maybe this one had stem
cell or other such treatment in that off time, he looked a monster to me.
If the ground was still firm, I would love the beast today. Still can\'t go past.
IN the feature, the questions I have concern how EZW will do from the gate. I was very keen on observing Tiz Wonderful last time, and was surprised that he was so rank, and went so flat so early under a pretty stiff drive, leaving the 1/2 pole. 3 3/4 works since then, and his position outside first of all Lukas speed, and then the improved SL, appeals to me. The \"shadow\" in my mind is, can you run as hard at 2yo as he did vs AGS and still like the game?
SIDEBAR: It\'s funny to watch JRV try to make up for Plether spreading his horses all over now that the cards have changed in the city. Angel is really trying to hold their position with TAP and win some to make up for the lack of local numbers compared to before the wreck at KEE last Spring. I saw criticism of him on a post, but I don\'t see him riding other than great, especially from the gate he is still right on, imo.
bellsbendboy Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
) He\'s Tough gets J.R. on the reride
> and the hood comes on for the frigid O\'Bien who I
> believe he is related to.
It\'s been interesting to watch this relationship between rider and father in law over the years. In general, it has looked professional. Never could see \"Favors\" one way or the other, as if they had an agreement to play it straight from the very beginning. I might have missed something but in general that\'s the way it has looked, so the horse is considered as any other imo.
I notice John rides a firster for Barbara in the finale - that\'s the kind of thing you wouldn\'t have seen much of in the last 5-6 years.
bellsbendboy Wrote:
6th) He\'s Tough gets J.R. on the reride
> and the hood comes on for the frigid O\'Bien who I
> believe he is related to, not much to beat and
> much better spacing for this one. Adding Mr.
> Tough Enough who again draws the fence but should
> fare better against cheaper, second time blinkers
> after sealed course debacle.
Nice call on the rail horse in the 6th just now;
the way JRV\'s horse ran it could be he does favors
for his brother in law he didn\'t for the dad !
Stillinger,
Johnny V is not riding near his best, imo.In addition to TAP having a cold streak and slow horses lately, Johns dad was recently ill in Puerto Rico and his head was not totally on racing,imo.At the SPA, he gave several rides that looked amateurish.
Cordero and Barbaro go way back as friends and it is not that surprising to see Johnny V pilot.
Since he was injured last year, JV has not come close to being the number 1,2 or 3 best rider in the country which he arguably was before he fell. He does not sit the same, send one the same or finish on one as strongly, pre accident.
Mike
P.S.It would not surprise me to see the \"great\" Garrett Gomez take some mounts away from JV at owners insistence even though TAP remains solidly in Angel/JV\'s corner.
I appreciate some objective news on John - and readily admit to a biased \"fandom\", a state that was frustrated for years by JRB getting first pick. The time frame starting with Jerry\'s retirement, (when it would have been valid in my opinion to call JRV the BEST) until the the wreck after the finish in KY was too damn short for moi. I was also soft on Angel, even thought he could condition a horse if someone had risked it. It\'s also true that John has aggressively come back successfully after his injuries, including emotional ones like when Marjorie Cordero walked into the traffic, so I was slow to accept this I guess. Truth be told, as much as I admire his work, Ron Anderson peeved me a little, maybe just because he was always swinging the biggest stick, at least for so long. It will hurt my feelings if he can get John\'s business, but among other things he has the \"now\" rider again.
I can see the lack of what seems like a real plan in JRV\'s riding, a lack of creativity, like just now it looked like he didn\'t have an answer to what Baffert\'s horse would probably do. But it did seem to me he got out fine and I was attributing a lot of the decline originally to him being trapped between people not wanting to start with him, knowing he would go to Pletcher, and the races being carded not allowing TAP to get the money he and his clients needed if he didn\'t spread out geographically.
I have really liked John since he had the bug, and was delighted that Angel got to make some dough with him. This craps me out a little. It crapped me out less, but in a similar manner to watch Mike Smith hit the hedge that time when he was leading at Sartoga, and Phipps give up later, and then Julie\'s deal, and I was very anxious to believe Antley was back. The worst two for me was the one in \'87 that was a death, and then watching Angel twang off the rail.
I digress. This is not the brain I use to bet with.
skip
miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Stillinger,
>
> Johnny V is not riding near his best, imo.In
> addition to TAP having a cold streak and slow
> horses lately, Johns dad was recently ill in
> Puerto Rico and his head was not totally on
> racing,imo.At the SPA, he gave several rides that
> looked amateurish.
>
> Cordero and Barbaro go way back as friends and it
> is not that surprising to see Johnny V pilot.
>
> Since he was injured last year, JV has not come
> close to being the number 1,2 or 3 best rider in
> the country which he arguably was before he fell.
> He does not sit the same, send one the same or
> finish on one as strongly, pre accident.
>
>
> Mike
>
> P.S.It would not surprise me to see the \"great\"
> Garrett Gomez take some mounts away from JV at
> owners insistence even though TAP remains solidly
> in Angel/JV\'s corner.
Before I sleep, I would love to hear anything about
ETDubai: distance, Gomez over grab, ground, experience required, unglued again, or BBB\'s Storm Cat-ness ??
TWonderful: Won\'t rate, can\'t breathe, JRV lost touch, BBB\'s others not lately, inevitable speed duel, Contessa\'s magic ??
Sleeping Indian: Given what the Doc said, and that we all know about Lemon Drop Kids (Gal was neat at this spot, she was 9/1) and the dominant number, and the fast breeze for Jerkens, and it\'s Wednesday, was that the SPOT ??
Prinnce Rahy: Likes trouble ??
Operation Red Dawn likes give in the ground,
Kent remains the real now rider, and Shosberg gets a
Gcauseway to win at 5f - seems a good start.
Week days are tough to make a deal for a person like me, with low self esteem that can\'t deal with the amount of losing tickets inherent to gimmick greatness. What happened to the Spooky Mulders of the world and the 50K claimers that used to form week day opportunity?
Motive: Just trying to bring the girls up to date a little before the big day - I know they have solid expectations, so discussion could be to their benefit. kiddin.
Still:
Handicapped Wednesday\'s card when the form and TGs came available Sunday night.
Looked forward to seeing ETD run and cashing a bet. About to leave the house at
11:30 for the ride to Belmont when the phone rings.
Its my job and they have a big project and could I come in and work for 12
hours. Since the only thing that makes me angrier than passing an opportunity
to get some overtime is thinking of someone else making that money instead of
me,I peel out of my jeans, get corporate and go to work (after stopping of
course at NYC OTB to make a deposit).
So I just got home at 4:30 and cranked up the replay. Durkin says ETD is \"hard
held at the back of the pack\" and they hang up a half mile fraction of 49 and
this is not where you want a stretch out sprinter to be. I am feeling pretty
good about having decided to go to work about now.
Will have to watch the gallop out on a decent monitor to see if this colt and I
have any future.
POST SCRIPT: Just looked at the charts... 7 to frickin 5 on this horse?
And Contessa wins the feature with a reformed NYB slow rat carrying penal
weight off of a NYB stake win? Thank god I worked today... it would have been a
long ride home from Belmont. I\'VE HAD IT WITH THIS GAME...until Saturday at
least.
Anytime a four race sequence returns $3337 for a buck there is some serious volatility, beaten favorites and headscratching winners. Yesterday at Belmont was no different. Leg one featured a pair of NY maidens that were dropping into claimers for the first time; Mr. Tough Enough ($16.80) and Seeking No More no factor at 19-10. The former had been out twice and benn blown away as many times, but his last was completely excusable. The gelding recieved first blinkers and drew the one hole at seven panels on a sealed muddy surface. Never a good thing, being steadied and checked sharply added to the debacle. Since that race he breezed twice nicely for former longtime NY outrider Barbara who got a determined ride by the upcoming Garcia. Seeking No More had a lousy work pattern and the fact that his connections did not try a dirt straight maiden raised a flag. We tried He\'s Tough as well and this one looked malnourished while delaying the start some five minutes and we would not recommend betting this trainer again.
Leg two got us involved in the sequence with all the pre race internet buzz about the Godolphin runner EMIRATES TO DUBAI. He was up against it from the beginning, drawing poorly with the rail in use but nonetheless was bet down to some 3-2. The son of Storm Cat passed on a logical spot 8/25 upstate opting instead for this Widener course mile which is much softer than a two turn heat. Always well placed and never far back under GoGo on the three peat, the bin Suroor 4yo saved some ground around the bend but put his head up in the air coming to the pole, indicating possible respiratory issues and just nailed the rank 23-1 pacesetter for fourth money. Interesting to see how long this one takes to work back. Our play, Prince Rahy raced well but is a tough ride and Coa did well to get the place money with a solid inside rally. Singling a horse that is 2 for 20 often leads to torn tickets. The winner was a hombred from the Clement barn (Operation Red Dawn, $23.40) and was excluded because of a jump in class, only one race in over a year, none since May and a penchant for finishing second with a half dozen runnerups in ten starts. Leaving Clement off your ticket in a grass race is also a good recipe for torn tickets.
The stake was scratched down to four as everyone was scared off by the resumes of the two favorites. Neither ran a jump with Tiz Wonderful being vanned off and Ez Warrior finishing last! Competent cappers know short fields can lead to bizarre finishes and this overnight stake certainly contained chaos. Contessa is capable of gettig one to jump up in a big way but this one was hard to predict. Three scratches and three no shows later Stunt Man ($25.20) roars down the lane under big weight winning easily. Some will say he took advantage of a speed duel but the truth is that the maiden claimer featured faster splits. A bit embarrassing going three long and omitting the winner but detest adding horses because they might win.
The last leg featured the turf sprint that has become ubiquitous on the NY circuit and a favorite finally came thru. Sleeping Indian ($5.60) got a perfect trip and won in a quick 1:08 and change to complete the pick four with the payoff similar to the parlay. Of our other two Cherokee Flare looks a career maiden and Frank\'s Friend was bet way down and showed absolutely nothing for the solid Frankel and underachieving Hennig respectively. A fun afternoon but going back to the midwest. BBB
richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>> POST SCRIPT: Just looked at the charts... 7 to
> frickin 5 on this horse?
> And Contessa wins the feature with a reformed NYB
> slow rat carrying penal
> weight off of a NYB stake win? Thank god I worked
> today... it would have been a
> long ride home from Belmont. I\'VE HAD IT WITH THIS
> GAME...until Saturday at
> least.
I would appreciate your reaction when you see the race clearly as to me it was clearly a huge performance upstate, and recently other animals that are off as long as he was hang together, Shakespeare for instance. I think Stem Cell as was televised concerning Greg\'s Gold out here. I am so tempted to call this Grabby Gomez, but I know there\'s a bias under that opinion, similar to the one I have on the plus side for JRV. The ones I have on the \"anticipation\" list always torment me until I can \"File\" them. So, even after watching it twice, I am still among Gomez, Ground, Un-Glue, and that\'s not very comforting.
On the Saturday schedule, I think it\'s ironic that if you would have asked me 30 years ago if I would pass a race day if I didn\'t have to I would have considered the question ludicrous. Now, for the last 20 straight years, with a one year exception when I consulted to my old firm in CHGO, I have been able to \"attend\" albeit long distance, race books, office, but I have had time. Now, it\'s the racing during the week that keeps me away until the week end, in general. This is my response about the 7/5 part of the equation.
Given that price, and the softer ground, I was really serious in thinking after it was all over that Indian Charlie would have been the play of the day if you absolutely had to play one, and that says something about \"weeks\" in racing currently - 8/5 on a horse that never raced on the surface? Lemon Drop Gal - I did get 9/1 with all the same logic, but it was on the week end. If you add that to conditioned claimers at the Spa, etc., I wish I were 100 years old, and had had this time 40 years ago.
The only thing that makes a little sense to me about the feature is that the fall has been in my experience, (after Saratoga), a dangerous time for \"re-starts\", for the ones that need to get anything straightened out. It just seems like lots of them don\'t get it right unless or until it\'s over and they really start over. And on the other hand many short priced horses with nice numbers win, while many regress after the year\'s racing so that what you saw last time, ain\'t what you get. This time between now and the inner is the worst for me, which I think is why I was seeking feed back.
skip
bellsbendboy Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
Tough Enough ($16.80) had been out twice and benn blown away as many
> times, but his last was completely excusable. The
> gelding recieved first blinkers and drew the one
> hole at seven panels on a sealed muddy surface.
> Never a good thing, being steadied and checked
> sharply added to the debacle. Since that race he
> breezed twice nicely for former longtime NY
> outrider Barbara who got a determined ride by the
> upcoming Garcia.
THis was obviously the insight of the day, one I couldn\'t get to.
> The son of Storm Cat passed on a logical spot 8/25
> upstate opting instead for this Widener course
> mile which is much softer than a two turn heat.
This was something I missed, but his head up was obvious to me,
this could be the key as although he carried his head a little
high at the SPA, this time it went up as when they bleed or can\'t
breathe. Noted.
> Always well placed and never far back under GoGo
> on the three peat, the bin Suroor 4yo saved some
> ground around the bend but put his head up in the
> air coming to the pole, indicating possible
> respiratory issues and just nailed the rank 23-1
> pacesetter for fourth money. Interesting to see
> how long this one takes to work back.
Our play,
> Prince Rahy raced well but is a tough ride and Coa
> did well to get the place money with a solid
> inside rally. Singling a horse that is 2 for 20
> often leads to torn tickets.
This honestly was my impression after you posted, he doesn\'t win,
but when you singled, I certainly am not going to mentiont that.
The winner was a
> hombred from the Clement barn (Operation Red Dawn,
> $23.40) and was excluded because of a jump in
> class, only one race in over a year, none since
> May and a penchant for finishing second with a
> half dozen runnerups in ten starts. Leaving
> Clement off your ticket in a grass race is also a
> good recipe for torn tickets.
I do think he likes the give, on top of other things.
> The stake was scratched down to four as everyone
> was scared off by the resumes of the two
> favorites. Neither ran a jump with Tiz Wonderful
> being vanned off and Ez Warrior finishing last!
> Competent cappers know short fields can lead to
> bizarre finishes and this overnight stake
> certainly contained chaos. Contessa is capable of
> gettig one to jump up in a big way but this one
> was hard to predict. Three scratches and three no
> shows later Stunt Man ($25.20) roars down the lane
> under big weight winning easily. Some will say he
> took advantage of a speed duel but the truth is
> that the maiden claimer featured faster splits. A
> bit embarrassing going three long and omitting the
> winner but detest adding horses because they might
> win.
ACtually, I think it is embarrassing, or at least that\'s how I felt
because Baffert\'s horse is inside and trying to sort out his break,
and Assmussen\'s horse stopped absolutely in KY. The thing I don\'t get
is the 3 6f works. No body is that \"short\" and comes back at 8f. THere
has to be something else, maybe something he gave Any Given Saturday last
year.
> The last leg featured the turf sprint that has
> become ubiquitous on the NY circuit and a favorite
> finally came thru. Sleeping Indian ($5.60) got a
> perfect trip and won in a quick 1:08 and change to
> complete the pick four with the payoff similar to
> the parlay. Of our other two Cherokee Flare looks
> a career maiden and Frank\'s Friend was bet way
> down and showed absolutely nothing for the solid
> Frankel and underachieving Hennig respectively. A
> fun afternoon but going back to the midwest. BBB
I thank you for this.
skip