Without commenting on specific trainers, I want to make a couple of points.
1-- As I have made clear repeatedly, certain drugs that move up horses (like alkalizing agents {milkshakes}) are LEGAL unless they show up in a test in ridiculously high quantities. The argument is then an entirely different one-- not whether a trainer is moving horses up, but whether he is breaking a (stupid) rule.
2-- I know TWO different people that have had direct conversations with Allday in which he spoke in detail about drugging horses himself. One posts occasionally on this board. The other, who is someone I know VERY well, had dinner with me the same day he had an hour long comversation with Allday during which he went into specific detail about what he had been doing in the past, which was DEFINITELY illegal, everywhere. My guess is that he no longer does that a) because he doesn\'t have to (see 1 above), b) he told the other individual I know, later on, roughly what he WAS doing then, which lined up directly with what I subsequently learned about the milkshake-in-a-pill, and c) horses are not dying under suspicious circumstances, especially those moving OUT of the barns of move-up guys. Under the program he told my good friend about, coming off it was VERY bad for the horses.
3-- A friend of mine coined a term a few years ago-- the \"d---head factor.\" It means that whichever side of any issue you are on, you will find yourself aligned with a d---head. CTC is obnoxious (intentionally, because he has a desperate need for attention). But he\'s not always wrong.
4-- Barry may not think Pletcher and Allday are doing anything, but he has himself been on the ramparts fighting drugs. And it\'s not because he doesn\'t think there is a problem.
5-- The way I can tell something is going on is when, ON FIGURES, several horses from the same barn make very unlikely move-ups at the same time. The chances of this statistically are very unlikely. Someday maybe we\'ll post all the sheets of the Frankel starters from April to June 2001. From what I have heard, that is when he started using Allday-- but that part is hearsay.
6-- At the minimum, to give the BETTOR a fighting chance, we need to have all CO2 tests published (every horse, every race), and a vet of record listed in the program. At that point we can look at some stats and run some sheets and see how things correlate, and begin to have a real discussion.
I think this issue is one that has been around for a very long time,and I don\'t see that it will ever get resolved,not any time soon..Drugs ,steroids,part of the game ,like it or not..NOT..I am far from educated on this matter,but since I beacme involved in the indusrty in some form,someone was always known to have the \"juice\".In no particular order..i remember it being Oscar Barrerra,then Pete Ferriola,then Gaspar Moshera,at another point Juan Serey..so I would only assume juice means some type of performance enhancing drug..I just don\'t understand why most are on Pletchers case,when there are so many others..I think the state of NY racing is very sad..and it very unfortunate for the horses well being as they are the ones being affected..So just get back to handicapping the races accordingly...and may the luck be with you...
Thank you dear god (small g) for the wisest post on this discussion. It\'s really all anyone has been saying.
Living in California in the era you cite, when Frankel\'s horses suddenly started re-breaking at the top of the stretch, over and over again, I can only suspect what a study of the type you mention might reveal.
You had to be at Santa Anita and Hollywood to experience the visual impact of it: lesser horses becoming greater horses.
My complaint has not been about what this does to betting, because we can factor our suspicions into our betting. My complaint is that nice horses running on guts are losing everywhere to others that re-break in stamina-defying performances.
We need to legalize everything, which may not be a bad idea, or finance really tough testing to chill out the cheaters.
Nice horses running on guts and losing to the re-breakers.......
I could care less what Bond\'s,Armstrong or Tiger Woods, etc,etc, put in their mouth,in their vein or stick up their ass; but a racehorse is not given a choice.
JB wants to publish CO2 results and vet of record. Will he make sheets on the vets?
Cheating is cheating and seems everybody thinks it\'s ok if not too much is used.
When the PETA loonies finally find out what is being done to the horses you might get the drug problem corrected.
Jerry, I\'m not looking for attention. I\'m way past that. At this point what I desire is acclaim. Sort of the Rolling Stones of Handicapping, if you get my point.
Doping is clearly an evolving process. In 2002, they were using a dangerous form of EPO and Allday got too much into Plech\'s horses. Alkalizing agents are part of the triumvirate, but they are not the edge. They are tinkering with designer steroids and designer EPO now and if I don\'t miss my guess red blood cell augmentation by transfusion. Bloodpacking pure and simple, though the lactic acid issue is part of the equation.
The pharmacy part of the equation is not cheap and its risky. They know the authorities are developing better testing and they use dope more sparingly than in years past. Ironically, they target the Graded Stakes.
I\'m not sure what your comment upon Irwin meant. Ramparts are defensive fortifications. If Irwin is sincere he needs to pull his horses from Plech. Otherwise he\'s a hypocrite.
I didn\'t Red Board Lawyer Ron\'s TFigs. I didn\'t have to, but for the sake of using figures to support the position, could you have someone on your staff pull and post the TFigs history for Lawyer Ron, Left Bank, Freedom\'s Daughter and Warners. I know the three are from years past, but Lawyer Ron is walking in very familiar shoes.
Besides, when am I ever really wrong? You\'re not still holding my evaluation of Rags to Riches Belmont Figure against me are you? I thought the results of the Haskell pretty much reinforced the Belmont was not a fast race. That said, in your favor is the fact that Rags certainly got sick after it. To be continued...
TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Without commenting on specific trainers, I want to
> make a couple of points.
>
> 1-- As I have made clear repeatedly, certain drugs
> that move up horses (like alkalizing agents
> {milkshakes}) are LEGAL unless they show up in a
> test in ridiculously high quantities. The argument
> is then an entirely different one-- not whether a
> trainer is moving horses up, but whether he is
> breaking a (stupid) rule.
>
> 2-- I know TWO different people that have had
> direct conversations with Allday in which he spoke
> in detail about drugging horses himself. One posts
> occasionally on this board. The other, who is
> someone I know VERY well, had dinner with me the
> same day he had an hour long comversation with
> Allday during which he went into specific detail
> about what he had been doing in the past, which
> was DEFINITELY illegal, everywhere. My guess is
> that he no longer does that a) because he doesn\'t
> have to (see 1 above), b) he told the other
> individual I know, later on, roughly what he WAS
> doing then, which lined up directly with what I
> subsequently learned about the
> milkshake-in-a-pill, and c) horses are not dying
> under suspicious circumstances, especially those
> moving OUT of the barns of move-up guys. Under the
> program he told my good friend about, coming off
> it was VERY bad for the horses.
>
> 3-- A friend of mine coined a term a few years
> ago-- the \"d---head factor.\" It means that
> whichever side of any issue you are on, you will
> find yourself aligned with a d---head. CTC is
> obnoxious (intentionally, because he has a
> desperate need for attention). But he\'s not always
> wrong.
>
> 4-- Barry may not think Pletcher and Allday are
> doing anything, but he has himself been on the
> ramparts fighting drugs. And it\'s not because he
> doesn\'t think there is a problem.
>
> 5-- The way I can tell something is going on is
> when, ON FIGURES, several horses from the same
> barn make very unlikely move-ups at the same time.
> The chances of this statistically are very
> unlikely. Someday maybe we\'ll post all the sheets
> of the Frankel starters from April to June 2001.
> From what I have heard, that is when he started
> using Allday-- but that part is hearsay.
>
> 6-- At the minimum, to give the BETTOR a fighting
> chance, we need to have all CO2 tests published
> (every horse, every race), and a vet of record
> listed in the program. At that point we can look
> at some stats and run some sheets and see how
> things correlate, and begin to have a real
> discussion.
Chuckles, you have to pick the horse before the race starts,that separates the men from the clowns.....
Ohh No...it\'s like adding Oxygen to a fire.
I am going to have to pass on reading this board for some time to come.
Jerry, just curious as to why is it always about Allday and Frankel with you? For CTC it\'s Allday and Pletcher. I\'m sure \"it\'s\" (ie use or lack of use of Performance Enhancing Drugs) part of the reason why Gann and Mark Reid are not buying cheaper horses for Frankel and moving them up and winning Graded Stakes races anymore. Possibly an underlying reason why they split up.
I\'m sure it goes way beyond just those two guys (Frankel/Allday) anyway.
This post of CTC\'s, is one of many more to come (The friggen Rolling stones eh....you make me sick dude) of self gratification and glad handing.
I guess we now officially have the TGHorseRacingDrugBlog/Board now and possibly forever.
I\'m sorry I just can\'t take this crap much longer. I\'ll be using the product, but we don\'t talk handicapping anyway/anymore. Somebody please email me when we get back to handicapping discussions similar to what takes place at the seminars.
I\'m done.
NC Tony
\" 6-- At the minimum, to give the BETTOR a fighting chance, we need to have all CO2 tests published (every horse, every race), and a vet of record listed in the program. At that point we can look at some stats and run some sheets and see how things correlate, and begin to have a real discussion.\"
Race horses have been doped since the first wager passed between neighbors. Drugs like heroin, cocaine used to be obtainable legally by anyone. Horses were routinely given stimulants to race, trainers would withdraw the drug on purpose so the horse would have poor race, then score a betting coup next race out on drugs. It was open and common. Including some names who have won the Triple Crown. Bettors used to get mad if they lost money, and later learned the horse wasn\'t doped, \"as usual\".
There has never been an accepted national standard of uniformity for drugs forbidden, allowable, withdrawal times, allowable levels (levels at which performance is unaffected, and these do exist).
That would be the first best step towards eliminating drug abuse. Good luck with that, but I hope that day will soon come.
I agree with TGJB that having all CO2 results published would help eliminate excess milkshaking to some extent (trainers would simply become more sophisticated on amounts they could use).
I disagree on publishing a \"vet of record\". While the intent is to associate a particular name with particular results, one trainer could certainly needlessly destroy a professional\'s reputation. Certainly the honest vet could dump that client, but it would be quite too late.
Speed figures, any type of sheet figure, is an attempt to quantitate, as objectively as possible, the performance of a horse. It\'s a good thing.
Unfortunately, such analysis leaves out the natural variables of a living animal, only quantitating a particular performance and comparing against previous for that animal and others it runs against, resulting in predictive assumptions.
Those assumptions are frequently not met. To quite a significant statistical degree, as we all know when we lose money at the track. Why? Because horses are living creatures, not mechanical automans. A huge variable is built into the system.
The horse itself is one, the trainer\'s ability another, nutrition, genetics, mental health - it all contributes, and is unmeasurable by the analyst. And unknowable.
Interpreting patterns certainly reveals trainers that have a propensity for obtaining increased performances from certain animals. Some are so remarkable as to be disbelievable and justifiably questioned.
But that\'s all you have. A list of \"move up\" trainers.
How can you with certainty ascertain it\'s drugs? You can add measurable permanent speed to a horse simply by changing it\'s work pattern consistently, which changes it\'s muscular makeup. Should the smarter trainer be punished by the figure makers as a doper?
What cutoff line will the sheet makers use, to separate out, \"good trainer\", from, \"he\'s using something\"?
TGJB wants to narrow the scope, and fine tune impressions, more objectively by triangulation - the horses\' quantitated performance, the trainer, the veterinarian.
How sure can one be of the results? Considering the built-in flaws within the system of analysis?
>I didn\'t Red Board Lawyer Ron\'s TFigs. I didn\'t have to, but for the sake of using figures to support the position, could you have someone on your staff pull and post the TFigs history for Lawyer Ron, Left Bank, Freedom\'s Daughter and Warners. I know the three are from years past, but Lawyer Ron is walking in very familiar shoes. <
I don\'t know if Lawyer Ron was drugged for his last race or not. I\'ll Probably never know. But anyone that holds his PPs out as a good example of cheating can\'t possibly know much about evaluating horses or their development. If you would have asked me before the season started how I expected LR to run this year, his recent performances would have been well within the range of my expectations. The problem may be that you didn\'t understand his ability and potential last year because several of his good races were hindered by pace and rankness issues. His best races were better and faster than they looked to most people. Then he had some problems in his poor efforts. Keep in mind that his figure for that race is in dispute to begin with.
I checked my back issues of the DRF. Unfortunately, I don\'t have a set of PPs for Left Bank or the charts from the day(s) when he started getting really good. IMHO, a figure alone will not tell the full story. Many people (myself included) believe that trip, bias, pace, and other factors can affect figures. We already know that that he spiked a couple of huge figures (I believe a sprint and then his final start at 9F). The problem is I vaguely remember a bias at the time Left Bank was setting land speed records. That\'s why we need the charts. Perhaps someone at the DRF can supply them.
The same would be required to properly analyze the PPs of the other two horses in order to determine if their figures can be explained logically or are somewhat unexplainable (as is often the case with other trainers).
In the end though, you still have to demonstrate that Allday treated those three horses and that he used something \"illegal\". Otherwise, you are in the same position as the rest of us.
In the mean time, IMO you still have to seperate legal from illegal drug use and I don\'t see why it\'s necessary to hurl around accusations as if they are legal certainties.
One small limitation on the usefulness of \"vet of record\" is that it will open up some of the same debates we have with trainers. Did the horse move up because the trainer (vet) is more skilled or because he\'s doing something illegal.
Thank you! I am new to the board, and was thinking about introducing myself, but some of this behavior has me on the fence. It would be nice if those who are interested in the challenge discuss actual handicapping and the race of the week. By the way, I\'m curious- How many out there are professionals ie; in the industry, professional handicappers for thoro-graph or amateur horse race lovers like me? Maybe we could introduce ourselves. Also, is there an \"expert\" we can ask questions on the forum? Since I am new and still interested it would be nice to get back to basics on this forum.
Like detention barns, listing the vet may do little if anything.There is a small element around racetracks looking for new \"stuff\" and there are people who can provide it.You do NOT need a vet to load a horse up. Just about any ill intentioned trainer/assistant/owner can do it.There has been a sleaze element around the racetrack since I can remember.
I know many of the vets in NY and they are all terrific people especially the ladies. Don\'t know about other circuits but lots of this conspiracy nonsense stems from years back when it was called a \"vets\" game. The illegal stuff is much more powerful now, the detection much harder and the sophistication level of the users is greater.They understand administration, how far out, how long it takes to clear et AL.The testers are up against it. A top guy from Cornell concluded that the illegal drug thing could only be dramatically reduced with money, big money.Management, hopefully,will do what they have promised when slot money is available.
I will also say that there are several very wealthy owners(some ego maniacs) who are doing their \"own\" undercover thing with security, using their own money.The idea that there are vets illegally loading up horses in the middle of the night or otherwise, in NY,is highly unlikely(shippers from farms and other circuits are suspect).It\'s more sophisticated and sinister than that but no one has been caught yet and it is doubtful that a group of NY vets are involved.There is so much legal stuff around that some claiming guys have figured ways to do great with it but are playing very close to the line and super-jugs are powerful today.A mainstream vet who is loading up runners in NY would stick out like a sore thumb right now.
Mike
CTC2 , - Jimmy Rushing w/ Ellington \'56 is probably more like it . IMO - I\'m sure most on this board hadn\'t forgotten about the AP incident ...
Want to bet?
Girly:
The resident expert and host of this forum is TGJB. In his post entitled \"Okay,
Listen\" he is basically saying that the presence of performance enhancing
medications and methods is part of horse racing and needs to be given
consideration in any handicapping exercise. Possibly performance enhancement is
given too much emphasis on this board to the dismay of some, but I for one feel
that the issue is important enough that the dialogue be allowed to continue.
(This one\'s for you, Indulto, if you are out there). There are two possible
resolutions to the performance enhancement \"problem\". One is that Racing will
adopt the \"Amsterdam\" approach, where all medications and methods are
permitted, and assistant trainers will be injecting the animals at the same
time the trainer is tightening the girth in the paddock. The other alternative
is the \"zero tolerance\" approach, hopefully coupled with significant penalties
for those who are found guilty. Either way, once the playing field is leveled as
far as performance is concerned...
...THERE WILL STILL BE CHEATING! There will still be a crafty jockey waiting
somewhere in a fog bank, or a trainer who tries to beat the horse identifier by
running a 3YO against 2YOs,or a Clerk of Scales who looks the other way while a
jockey pigs out on a bowl of pasta, or a track superintendent who can determine
the results of a days races by deciding to scrape a track, or an owner who
insists that his horse be raced in two or three or ten or twelve spots before
he is placed in a race that suits his ability level and the owner can cash a
bet...
Welcome aboard, Girly. I\'m tired now, having just walked 18 holes of golf (and
swung the club too many times) after a 12 hour shift at work.
I kind of feel like Vito Corleone in the tomato patch right now.
Girly-- this board has become more of a forum (the best in the industry), but yes, you can still ask questions, and someone will answer them. Whether that person will be an expert is an open question.
In many cases those who post DON\'T want to reveal who they are. But we get a mix of industry pros (some of whom are full time professional gamblers), and serious fan/handicappers.
To the degree there is handicapping discussion it usually centers on ROTW, because that\'s one that everyone has TG data for. Or Triple Crown, BC or other big races, for the same reason.
Jews start sentences with the word \"listen.\"
Gentiles start sentences with the word \"look.\"
Just an observation.
You might have said it\'s just a joke. Just not a funny one. As an \'observation\' it\'s crude, irrelevant and insulting.
Thank you for your in depth explanation, Richie B and your welcome to the board. Perhaps I\'ll ask questions as long as people are civil as you are. Thanks to TGJB also!
Alm,
\"not funny\" - yes
\"irrelevant\" - yes
\"crude\" - maybe
\"insulting\" - I don\'t understand. To whom would his post be insulting?