Catch me if you can....................
I guess they did again.....
NC Tony
I had hard spun and going around the turn he looked like he would win by 10....Especially since he was in a perfect spot given the track bias all day. No horse who stalked on the inside part of the track ran well all day...which is why I was even more impressed with AGS\'s run. No horse won from where Curlin was either...so I give him an excuse. Monmouth is usually a very biased track...which makes it tough to play.
Hard Spun ran well. He\'s shown a lack of late punch in his recent races and Cable Boy did make him run early. The Fractions were legitimate.
You also had the Plech in NJ factor and a recent top out of Lawyer Ron in a Grade I that defies explanation.
But regarding your contention that nothing ran well from inside and marginally off pace you are joking aren\'t you? Are you really telling this board that AGS\'s effort stands out because he ran inside from a length and a fraction back of two horses hitting it hard? Did we all view the same race? Did you factor the other races on that card? You aren\'t really going to move AGS up factoring a win against bias off that effort are you? For instance like when he runs in the Travers?
Inside was a very good place to be Sunday at Monmouth and horses liked it there from out in front and just off the pace.
The first rule of evidence is ascertaining what is a fact and what is not.
A handicapper can go a very long way by merely being able to ascertain the facts.
APny Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I had hard spun and going around the turn he
> looked like he would win by 10....Especially since
> he was in a perfect spot given the track bias all
> day. No horse who stalked on the inside part of
> the track ran well all day...which is why I was
> even more impressed with AGS\'s run. No horse won
> from where Curlin was either...so I give him an
> excuse. Monmouth is usually a very biased
> track...which makes it tough to play.
After reviewing every race at Mon. on Sunday;I acknowledge that CTMC\'s last post is accurate and true.
As far as his attempt to be-little rather than correct a situation....well he\'s working on it in his spare time(spare time being that small window of opportunity that arises between his last attack and his next!)
Hard Spun is a very fast horse running on the wrong surface. Looking at his confirmation, stride and breeding (by super grass sire Danzig out of a turf stakes winning dam by hidden turf distance sire Turkoman), he should be a much better horse on turf. If you watch his action, the further he goes on dirt, the more his gait works against him. If I owned him, I\'d move him to the grass with a view towards running him in the Belmont Turf G1s in the fall.
Could not agree more with your assessment of Hard Spun. Would add that his immediate family includes several champions including Little Current, Chateaugay and Primonetta. He has classic turf action and like his sire Danzig will probably never try turf.
The fall, turf, Grade I\'s at Belmont are The Man O War at eleven panels and the Joe Hirsch at twelve, both for 3yo\'s and up. Darley bought the breeding rights and may want a graded win on turf. The logical spots would be the Jamaica, Grade II, restricted to 3yo\'s going nine furlongs October 6th, or perhaps a stab at the Shadwell at Keeneland the following week going a mile against serious competition.
The latter spot may set him up for a spin in the Breeders Cup mile which would lead to comparisons of a very similar sophomore, 2000 Mile winner War Chant who is also by Danzig, also out of a stakeswinning mare whose maternal grandsire is Roberto. BBB
Funny, I was thinking the same thing as they were runnng the race. I think he\'s a very good horse and like you said, not on his preffered surface.
Excellent choice bellsbendboy to run him in the 9F Jamaica (perhaps against Sunriver, NoBiz et al) to gauge his turf ability before pitting him against the older (and possibly Euro) G1 wolves in The Man O\' War and Hirsch.
I have also believed this for a while to be true...especially considering how well he has done on the poly surface..
I was thinking Hard Spun was very much like Lure.
Awesome \"in your face\" speed, by Danzig, precocious speed on the dirt at 2.... Hard Spun\'s maternal grandma, Chappaquiddick, threw his mom Endear who was a Grade 1 dirt winner...she also threw Tiller who won and competed in just about every important distance turf race on the east and west coasts. Chappaquiddick\'s dad, Relic, won French broodmare sire of the year in the mid 60s.
The makings are all there for Hard Spun to rage on the turf. I know the owners are pointing to the King\'s Bishop, which is a hellishly tough race on a horse. The Jamaica is 9f for $300k.... why not find out what you really have and ship for the G1 $1 million Woodbine Mile? Love to see him cruising on the lead with those wide, sweeping turns. Otherwise, skip the Jamaica, and run in the one mile Kelso like Lure.
bellsbendboy Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Could not agree more with your assessment of Hard
> Spun. Would add that his immediate family
> includes several champions including Little
> Current, Chateaugay and Primonetta. He has classic
> turf action and like his sire Danzig will probably
> never try turf.
>
> The fall, turf, Grade I\'s at Belmont are The Man O
> War at eleven panels and the Joe Hirsch at twelve,
> both for 3yo\'s and up. Darley bought the breeding
> rights and may want a graded win on turf. The
> logical spots would be the Jamaica, Grade II,
> restricted to 3yo\'s going nine furlongs October
> 6th, or perhaps a stab at the Shadwell at
> Keeneland the following week going a mile against
> serious competition.
>
> The latter spot may set him up for a spin in the
> Breeders Cup mile which would lead to comparisons
> of a very similar sophomore, 2000 Mile winner War
> Chant who is also by Danzig, also out of a
> stakeswinning mare whose maternal grandsire is
> Roberto. BBB
Regardless of any track bias, Any Given Saturday ran a tremendous race. He beat two really good horses very soundly. I had a chance to be there in person, and I was very impressed physically by AGS -- he\'s got a chest like king kong, and what an impressive turn of foot! He\'s a true classic contender this year. The ride by Garret Gomez was perfect all the way, too.
Curlin is rather imposing physically as well though I think he matured very early and I would not expect him to get much better -- we\'ve probably seen the best from him (and that best is pretty darn good).
As far as Hard Spun, I still think the Derby knocked him out, and he still hasn\'t completely recovered (I know the sheets don\'t say that exactly, he susposedly ran faster in the Preakness, I think he was totally spent in the Preakness and expected his regression in the Belmont) -- he might also be a notch below the top colts, but he\'s still very good.
I think its likely AGS topped marginally. Maybe I should say I think its likely it will be scored a marginal top. How he got there is for you to deliberate but his action probably wont play as well on other surfaces and its probable that the next race is where to take a stand.
Its also quite possible the Triple Crown competitors needed another race after participating in every leg of the series. I think the place and show horses exceeded 1.49 and thats not particularly fast. Add to that fact the fickle nature of Monmouth and there could easily be a reversal.
Hard Spun is definitely a trier. He put away a Monmouth Track Record Holder, maybe he can spring a nice surprise with the Haskell under his belt. But I don\'t think you\'ve seen the \"A-Race\" from the Place and Show horses since a couple races back.
Dana666 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Regardless of any track bias, Any Given Saturday
> ran a tremendous race. He beat two really good
> horses very soundly. I had a chance to be there in
> person, and I was very impressed physically by AGS
> -- he\'s got a chest like king kong, and what an
> impressive turn of foot! He\'s a true classic
> contender this year. The ride by Garret Gomez was
> perfect all the way, too.
>
> Curlin is rather imposing physically as well
> though I think he matured very early and I would
> not expect him to get much better -- we\'ve
> probably seen the best from him (and that best is
> pretty darn good).
>
> As far as Hard Spun, I still think the Derby
> knocked him out, and he still hasn\'t completely
> recovered (I know the sheets don\'t say that
> exactly, he susposedly ran faster in the
> Preakness, I think he was totally spent in the
> Preakness and expected his regression in the
> Belmont) -- he might also be a notch below the top
> colts, but he\'s still very good.
Chuckles_the_Clown2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> But regarding your contention that nothing ran
> well from inside and marginally off pace you are
> joking aren\'t you? Are you really telling this
> board that AGS\'s effort stands out because he ran
> inside from a length and a fraction back of two
> horses hitting it hard? Did we all view the same
> race? Did you factor the other races on that card?
> You aren\'t really going to move AGS up factoring a
> win against bias off that effort are you? For
> instance like when he runs in the Travers?
charlie, you got very frustrated here. you obviously lost your two bucks to a Pletcher (again).
next time, don\'t appear so agitated when you post. that way, when you respond and say you didn\'t lose your two bucks, people will believe you. cause now, when you do, people are just going to think you are a fool.
Mike when I want crazy Bet Plech advice from an amateur...i\'ll give you a ring.
Don\'t hold ur breath.
Fools are proved by their wagers. You need a floppy hat with a tassel.
lol
Here\'s your Derby Key.
http://www.thorograph.com/phorum/read.php?1,34811,34811#msg-34811
Now, to be fair, I did think Cowtown stood the best chance of the Plech bunch, but I certainly NEVER would have considered him a KEY. He was a longshot 3rd or 4th in my wheel.
What I\'ve ascertained is that you are a Plech Bettor. Thats all well and good. I know an old woman that will beat you like an old shag throw rug by betting Greys, but lets be honest, betting Plech is not handicapping. I\'ll get you her phone number.
lol
CtC
Chuckles_the_Clown2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Mike when I want crazy Bet Plech advice from an
> amateur...i\'ll give you a ring.
>
> Don\'t hold ur breath.
>
> Fools are proven by their wagers. You need a
> floppy hat with a tassle.
>
> lol
see little charlie, your agitation speaks volumes.
you did indeed lose your two bucks to AGS.
Chuckles_the_Clown2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Mike when I want crazy Bet Plech advice from an
> amateur...i\'ll give you a ring.
>
> Don\'t hold ur breath.
>
> Fools are proved by their wagers. You need a
> floppy hat with a tassel.
>
> lol
>
> Here\'s your Derby Key.
>
> http://www.thorograph.com/phorum/read.php?1,34811,
> 34811#msg-34811
>
> Now, to be fair, I did think Cowtown stood the
> best chance of the Plech bunch, but I certainly
> NEVER would have considered him a KEY. He was a
> longshot 3rd or 4th in my wheel.
>
> What I\'ve ascertained is that you are a Plech
> Bettor. Thats all well and good. I know an old
> woman that will beat you like an old shag throw
> rug by betting Greys, but lets be honest, betting
> Plech is not handicapping. I\'ll get you her phone
> number.
>
> lol
>
> CtC
my my, you are a tenacious little monkey. I like your spunk.
I keyed Pletcher in all three triple crown races. even a nitwit like you can do the math. it was a winning bet.
I like it that you study my every move though. keep it up little charlie, you will figure it out one day.
Having picked all 3 Triple Crown races based on my \'who\'s drugging who\' and who isn\'t on any given saturday, I\'ll venture Pletcher doesn\'t enter AGS in the Travers. Clearly his recent record in NY suggests the testing there is a bit ahead of his clever vet.
If he does enter AGS the horse is likely to run clean and lose.
Curlin is not likely to enter, but if he does, he will lose. He perplexed his trainer? Confused performance...did not handle the track or has an injury no one has seen just yet; condylar most likely as x-rays alone can\'t pick it up.
SS should win, but he looked more than a race short of his best the last time. There may be a minor upset: Shug\'s horse.
Cabin Boy came down with the \"Thumps\" right after the race......AGS is the real deal. I think he can turn the tables on Street Sense. We\'ve had some great racing this summer.
Thumps are brought on by racing stress. He thumped on the grandstand turn.
AGS? are you sure you just don\'t wanna \"be like mike\"? But alas, i know when I\'ve been bested. I\'m gonna join you guys. AGS overcame bias last, lets Key Wheel him and take down the Travers.
When we take our stand should we Key Wheel him in 1st? Or should we cover and Wheel him in say 2nd, 3rd and/or 4th too?
Contrary to the reports of some \"Amazing Kreskins\" I didn\'t bet on the Haskell and I\'m missing the gravy train, so I\'m with you, I just wanna know how we are going to take our stand.
CtMC
If you\'re a patriot there is something to be miffed about, but unfortunately its got nothing to do with Horse Racing.
spa Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Cabin Boy came down with the \"Thumps\" right after
> the race......AGS is the real deal. I think he can
> turn the tables on Street Sense. We\'ve had some
> great racing this summer.
Alm if you picked those 3 Crown winners all I can say is congrats.
I think its clear the defendant\'s modus operandi in New York is ship in with a rested and \"conditioned\" horse. But theres only so many lucrative and Stud enhancing 3YO races, so I think Plech will point to the Travers. But perchance AGS is not there lets bet Plech in the Travers anyway. If you can\'t beat them, join them.
alm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Having picked all 3 Triple Crown races based on my
> \'who\'s drugging who\' and who isn\'t on any given
> saturday, I\'ll venture Pletcher doesn\'t enter AGS
> in the Travers. Clearly his recent record in NY
> suggests the testing there is a bit ahead of his
> clever vet.
>
> If he does enter AGS the horse is likely to run
> clean and lose.
>
> Curlin is not likely to enter, but if he does, he
> will lose. He perplexed his trainer? Confused
> performance...did not handle the track or has an
> injury no one has seen just yet; condylar most
> likely as x-rays alone can\'t pick it up.
>
> SS should win, but he looked more than a race
> short of his best the last time. There may be a
> minor upset: Shug\'s horse.
alm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Having picked all 3 Triple Crown races based on my
> \'who\'s drugging who\' and who isn\'t on any given
> saturday, I\'ll venture Pletcher doesn\'t enter AGS
> in the Travers. Clearly his recent record in NY
> suggests the testing there is a bit ahead of his
> clever vet.
>
> If he does enter AGS the horse is likely to run
> clean and lose.
>
> Curlin is not likely to enter, but if he does, he
> will lose. He perplexed his trainer? Confused
> performance...did not handle the track or has an
> injury no one has seen just yet; condylar most
> likely as x-rays alone can\'t pick it up.
>
> SS should win, but he looked more than a race
> short of his best the last time. There may be a
> minor upset: Shug\'s horse.
alm,
I think \"Old School\" Carl Nafzgar (said fondly) always has SS 3/4 cranked for prep races and uses them to crank him fully for the big race. Plus, though I love the Shugster, the Phipps \"gene pool\" is so overwhelmingly weighted towards filly superstars, it\'s only about once a decade or so that they produce an A+ male superstar a la Easy Goer and Coranado\'s Quest. I don\'t think Sightseeing is this decades male superstar but 10F should suit him well. Analysis of the Phipps breeding stock is a fascinating subject unto itself which many equine breeding \"experts\" have explore endlessly. There\'s just something magical in those Phipps double X chromosomes.
I once read that the elder Ogden never kept a broodmare that didn\'t at least win a 9 furlong or longer race. He wasn\'t so much looking for families as for the XX chromes that have been proven (by the Australians) to carry stamina traits.
I appreciate the approach Nafzger takes in prep races. I have cashed more than a few bets on his horses, third off the layoff.
However, SS looked to me to be struggling and far short of his best condition. I don\'t think Shug\'s horse is that good, but a lot of average horses have won the Travers in the past. It\'s sort of a mid-season survival of the fittest race in some years.
As for my picks in the Triple Crown, read my prerace posts on this site. I don\'t think I wrote about the Derby, I just bet the hell out of SS, having read that they had significantly advanced drug testing on the grounds for the race. That eliminated all of TAP\'s flock and SA\'s Curlin.
At Pimlico I reasoned testing would be lax and that Curlin was a great threat.
At Belmont I said the filly and Curlin would run their eyeballs out and that she would have a slight edge.
Since TAP seems to be realizing somewhat inhibited results at Saratoga, I\'m guessing they\'ve got him on the radar. AGS won\'t do it if I\'m right.
Come on, can\'t we do anything on this board besides talk about who is allegedly using drugs.
Alm, if you came up with Any Given Saturday based on your drug voodoo logic, congratulations, but you won for the wrong reason. The horse was the best horse on the figures and I am not redboarding. If you look back at the thread \"Any Given Saturday Wins on Wednesday\", you will see I said he will win the Dwyer, run a negative number doing so, then beat SS and/or Curlin this summer.
The horse ran a negative 3 in the Dwyer, which is NY, so I am assuming you lost a ton of money on him that day, since Pletcher can\'t win in NY because of the great drug testing we have. AGS had 4+ weeks into the Haskell, off the negative 3. He had the rail and was getting 4 pounds from Curlin. He figured to get a better trip than Curlin, and Curlin only had one figure, his preakness race, which would be competitive with AGS\'s Dwyer figure. And, even if Curlin ran the negative 3 he ran in the Preakness, AGS\'s pairing up his negative 3, with the rail, was going to beat him anyway. Not to mention that with all the hard racing Curlin had this year in a very short period of time, he is a great bet against the rest of this year. Many handicappers on this board thought Curlin was a bet against in all three triple crown races because of the lack of foundation and the taxing efforts he had in each race, off tight spacing. However they were wrong (TGJB is in this group of handicappers I believe). However, he may have shown some of that effect in the Haskell, or maybe not. I don\'t know what the figure is going to be, but he MIGHT have run his secondary top, a \"0\", which is not a bad race, but AGS may have paired his negative 3, or at least run close to it. Anyway, that is supposition, we will see when Jerry does the figures.
As for avoiding the Travers because of drug testing. Non-sense. I am assuming since you are posting on this board, you have some knowledge of spacing and the impact of big efforts. Look at AGS\'s sheet. The horse relishes spacing. He probabaly ran a very big effort in the Haskell, which will make 2 top effots in the past 30 days. Why run back in 20 days, which is relatively short rest, against Street Sense, who will have the edge of a race over the track at Saratoga, an extra week of rest, plus having run a relatively slow prep race which won\'t take much out of him.
If I am training AGS, he runs in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, then the Breeders Cup Classic. If he wins both, he might be 3 year old of the year, plus a shot at horse of the year. As much as I would like to see it, running back in 20 days in the Travers doesn\'t help him that much and has more downside than upside. (spots too much of an edge to STreet Sense)
Let\'s talk a little about handicapping on this board. Saratoga is here, the best race meet on the planet (sorry Delmar fans). Lots of competitive races and chances to make money. No need to play conspiracy theory every day on the board.
Well said
Based on that post, I must assume that Jimbo just got a job working for Pletcher. ;-)
Jimbo, Don\'t you know that the only reason most people don\'t pick the winner of every race is drugs. ;-)
I truly believe the conspiracy element is part of a handicapper\'s make-up.
Solitary thinkers coming together only when negative energy is flowing.
So many hits for scandalise accusations,so few hits for handicapping.
Me thinks Mr. Murdoch might be interested in this Co.
I can attest to the fact that Jimbo was waiting for AGS to run and win the Haskell. We sat together at Carolina Barbeque at Sar the weekend before the race and he told me then that AGS was gonna whip Curlin, Hard Spun and the others. You were right Jimbo, nice hit.
AGS\'s July 4th 3 point top IMO at that time of his career as a mid-season 3 yo , off an O X O type Pattern and in the overall context of his Sheet , doesn\'t seem suspicious - those 2 yo numbers do however raise some general questions and concerns with me ...
Don\'t know what he ran Saturday but I personally gave him about the same chances of running with-in aprx 2 pts of his top as the group of horse\'s used in the 3 yo negative top studies .
To me, AGS\'s PPs look a lot like Flower Alley\'s.
Both showed some early ability and development (AGS was better early).
Both ran a lot better in the Derby than it looked on paper.
Both were freshened up a little and then exploded forward in the summer.
I just think AGS started out a little better and is a little better now.
Jeff Mullins made that quote of the century two tears ago at Hollywood Park.
\"You have to be nuts to bet on horses.\"
fkach Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Based on that post, I must assume that Jimbo just
> got a job working for Pletcher. ;-)
>
> Jimbo, Don\'t you know that the only reason most
> people don\'t pick the winner of every race is
> drugs. ;-)
I\'d like to point out there is at least one other reason people don\'t pick or even bet a winner:
http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/MTH080507USA13.pdf
Please note the payouts. As with \"Lady Lira\" there is an awful lot of unsophisticated gambling money wrapped up in Plech runners, especially at circuits he can \"skate\" at.
The above doesn\'t necessarily mean that anyone betting or cashing the Haskell is unsophisticated. But being unsophisticated is kinda like Alzheimer\'s. The subject never knows he has a problem.
The truth, of course, was that the Haskell was a poor return and even a poorer wager, but we did learn some things from it. We already knew some things too (If we\'ve been paying attention.) One of those things is that Plech was just another of the Lukas progeny until he took on a particular vet. And now his horses seem to run very fast on the layoff ship and unreal fast at certain circuits. At least they do so once.
CtMC
Chuckles_the_Clown2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> fkach Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Based on that post, I must assume that Jimbo
> just
> > got a job working for Pletcher. ;-)
> >
> > Jimbo, Don\'t you know that the only reason most
> > people don\'t pick the winner of every race is
> > drugs. ;-)
>
> I\'d like to point out there is at least one other
> reason people don\'t pick or even bet a winner:
>
> http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/MTH080507
> USA13.pdf
>
> Please note the payouts. As with \"Lady Lira\" there
> is an awful lot of unsophisticated gambling money
> wrapped up in Plech runners, especially at
> circuits he can \"skate\" at.
>
> The above doesn\'t necessarily mean that anyone
> betting or cashing the Haskell is unsophisticated.
> But being unsophisticated is kinda like
> Alzheimer\'s. The subject never knows he has a
> problem.
>
> The truth, of course, was that the Haskell was a
> poor return and even a poorer wager, but we did
> learn some things from it. We already knew some
> things too (If we\'ve been paying attention.) One
> of those things is that Plech was just another of
> the Lukas progeny until he took on a particular
> vet. And now his horses seem to run very fast on
> the layoff ship and unreal fast at certain
> circuits. At least they do so once.
>
> CtMC
go to the next race on Haskell day:
http://equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/MTH080507USA14.pdf
yes, that is a Pletcher/Pletcher double with AGS, and it paid $47.80.
lol.
two buck chuck, how do you manage to make an ass out of yourself every single time you post here?
lol.
Ctc said \"Plech was just another Lukas progeny until he took on a particular
vet\".
Chuck, you\'ve thrown this card on the table a couple of times,and I think this
is a theory you are stating as fact. For the benefit of all of us, could you
identify an approximate point in time when Pletcher and Allday began working
together? Could you disclose what Pletcher\'s win percentage was before and after
this point in time? Number of stakes wins before and after? Number of new tops
before and after? Does Allday treat all TAP horses, or just those at certain
tracks?
Ah the \"Lukas assistant\" legacy. The four who have had the most impact are TAP,
Kieran McLaughlin and his brother in law, Mark Hennig, and Dallas Stewart.TAP
and K Mac are future Hall of Famers, Hennig and Stewart are solid trainers.
TAP and Hennig are both sons of horse trainers; Dallas Stewart came up through
the ranks, I remember him galloping horses for a shrewd Fair Grounds trainer
named Connie Tassistro back in the early 80s. K Mac grew up in horse and
basketball crazy Lexington and by his own admission realized at his height he
had a better chance of training horses than he did of playing basketball at UK.
A story about K Mac that is too good to be true is that KM had just gone to
work for DWL, and DWL left K Mac the responsibility of getting an old horse
trailer painted. K Mac found 2 people willing to paint the trailer: one offered
to do it for $400, another offered to do it for $800. K Mac opted for the $800
paint job, and DWL was apparently very impressed with K Mac\'s willingness to
spend someone else\'s money.
As usual, I digress. Chuckles, if you back up the Pletcher/ Allday alliance
theory with some statistics, the theory carries considerable weight. Until I
see some evidence I continue to contend that TAPs greatest edge is his access to
superior horseflesh.
Enough said....................
Todd Pletcher wins because he has the resources to do so. Better talent makes trainers and jocks look better then they actually are. Alan Garcia won two races today because he was on the best horse at the perfect time. Same goes for J.Bracetty who guided a $28 horse home Sunday,with ease.The good thing was Garrett Gomez wasn\'t on the horse, because if he was Durkin would have said great ride GG.IMO trainers have been training the same way for the last hundred years,some were just lucky to have better horses to train, period! It\'s not any differant then a basketball coach teaching the triangle offence to a group of players,group A will learn the same fundermentals as group B, but it just so happens that group A has the best players. I have watched many of TAP\'s two year olds run poorly, does that mean they didn\'t get the juice? All it means is that The Lucas boy looses 75% of the time he enters a horse, which is pretty much the norm.
Chuckles,
You really are a moron. The fastest horse at the weights, with the rail and a recency edge is \"unsophisticated gambling\".
If you had ever read a sheet and/or learned how to handicap using the product whose board you clutter on a daily basis, you would know what is \"unsophisticated\" and what isn\'t.
9-5 was not a great price, never is on any horse. However, he was the most likely winner in a field with only three horses who could win.
This is the same moronic clown who touted curlin at 4-5 in the Belmont and posted idiotic responses about the filly\'s \"ambush\" afterwards. The same clown who was so happy with his even money on Afleet Alex in the Belmont so as to clutter this board for days. The same clown who has no handicapping opinions worth discussing, but will certainly pontificate about nonsense endlessly here on the board. Oh, I forgot, you only handicap races worth 1 million dollars or more. Bologna. Why don\'t you repost your thread listing how you have hit 17 of the 22 KEntucky Derby winners. That is one of my favorite posts of yours. OR is it 18 of 23? I wouldn\'t want to shortchange you.
I think you missed your calling. You clearly should be a tout and/or professional horse player with your endless lists of winners. You are wasting yourself as a coffee go-fer boy for your local congressman.
bordercollie Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Todd Pletcher wins because he has the resources to
> do so.
Do you consider the Vet one of those resources? and if you do, how much significance do you assign to the Vet as compared to other \"employees\" or the auction price of the horse? or under whom the trainer cut his teeth?
> Better talent makes trainers and jocks look
> better then they actually are. Alan Garcia won two
> races today because he was on the best horse at
> the perfect time. Same goes for J.Bracetty who
> guided a $28 horse home Sunday,with ease.The good
> thing was Garrett Gomez wasn\'t on the horse,
> because if he was Durkin would have said great
> ride GG.
In 1997 Patrick Byrne had 2 Juvenile Champions. One of them was Horse of the Year. They were by Phone Trick and Deerhound respectively. Neither was very fashionably bred nor very pricey. But by any standard, pre purchase, they were far from the \"best horseflesh\" out there. Both were busts at breeding and both are dead now. Albeit one in a barn fire. A barn fire? They have one other thing in common. They were both overseen by the same Vet who burst upon the scene that same year.
> IMO trainers have been training the same
> way for the last hundred years,some were just
> lucky to have better horses to train, period!
Here\'s another one that doesn\'t think horses are any faster today. He is probably unaware of Lawyer Ron\'s recent track record at the Spa. And before that Left Bank\'s track record at the Spa. And also the fact that the incredibly fast numbers being run are a relatively recent phenomena in this game. As recent for Plech as about 2001. (I\'ll try to pin down the exact date, but the folks involved aren\'t real eager to disclose information that brings them under even more suspicion.) Maybe Barry Irwin can be a resource here. He \"employs\" Plech. He can ask him. The answer will be 2001. (I take that back, after a quick glance at some back numbers, the year will be 2000)
> It\'s not any differant then a basketball coach teaching
> the triangle offence to a group of players,group A
> will learn the same fundermentals as group B, but
> it just so happens that group A has the best
> players.
I guess that means Barry Bonds, Lance Armstrong, Mark McGuire and Sammy Sosa are really just much better athletes than their contemporaries. Ok, some athletes really are better than others but you\'re not really telling this board that the same track coach that gets a recent and heavily skewed number of 100 yard dash record setters is just working with the Favorite Tricks or Countess Diana\'s of the human sprint world are you?
> I have watched many of TAP\'s two year
> olds run poorly, does that mean they didn\'t get
> the juice? All it means is that The Lucas boy
> looses 75% of the time he enters a horse, which is
> pretty much the norm.
Winning at 25% is the norm? No it really is not. Traditionally, winning at 15 or even 10 percent was the norm. But at many circuits Plech has exceeded even the exceptionally high strike rate of 25%. The drugs are not a panacea and they will not work on horses like the Green Monkey, but the horses they can help will run faster and the trainers strike rate will increase by the percentage of the horses the cheating aids.
CtMC
If any trainer used anabolic steroids (AS) on his horses over a long period of time, there would definitely be an effect on the fertility of the horse because such drugs have effects directly at the gene level. Furthermore one would expect a much lower than average SPI for that horse if he ever became a stallion. Female progeny would also be adversely affected by AS. Has anyone ever performed a study of the performance of of non-claiming super trainer horses at stud? A bad result would not neccessarily be an indictment or proof of anything because so many other factors are relevant in success at stud, e.g. Had Mr.P stood his whole career in NY, he would likely not have become arguably the greatest stallion ever. I went through the lists of leading stallions over the last 5 years and wrote in their trainers to see if there were any patterns. I leave it to others to perform the same exercise --the results are interesting.
Bee,
It\'s really fairly obvious. The conspiracy idiots will point to a couple of performances out of thousands for TAP(unlike the incomparable OSCAR who made cripples run giant)Getting waxed at the windows by TAP is another reason the conspiracy idiots rail.
To suggest that some figs or some vet is the way to prove the existence the magic bullet in THAT barn (TAP\'s) is naive at best.Advice, never debate a subject with someone who knows much more about it or much less, you can\'t win.
Mike
Chuck,
Yes, I saw Lawyer Ron, break the track record. In fact I bet $1200 to win. The point I made was how I feel even though I have my reservations about the game. As a person who does this for a living, I can assure you that I understand the game and what goes on behind closed doors. Maybe you should stop playing, or change tracks were Pletcher doesn\'t run. I do not post very often on the board, but I read it every day and the other guy was correct when he said you fill it up with crap. The board needs positive feedback not the personal horror stories you go through every day.
Have a good day
>The fastest horse at the weights, with the rail and a recency edge is \"unsophisticated gambling\".<
If the horses that Pletcher has been wining with were totally illogical, I could at least understand the obsession.
I don\'t mind being the first onto a topic. Sure you take some heat for the insight, but thats the way the truth is played out with the masses.
First the truth is ridiculed, then arguments are made agaisnt it and excuses are made for it, then at last the truth is considered to be self evident to those that vehemently denied it at the inception.
If you think AGS is a faster horse than either of the two he just beat what you said would make sense. That premise would be wrong however. The two defeated horses were not probable to be at their very best in the Haskell for a number of reasons. If you think 8-5 was sufficient to \"send it in\" on the winner with some probability the other two would run their A race and the likelihood the Trifecta would pan out just as it did more power to you. Should I post the payouts Again?
Maybe its vast chasms between differing wagering \"theories\" that is the root of the denial. I\'m not going to get into my theory, but that said I don\'t consider 8-5 a very good wager even in an \"omni fig\" situation. And obviously that scenario wasn\'t present in the Haskell. In a blue moon, I will take as low as Even money, but it takes a very special circumstance to go there. I assure you that circumstance was not present in the Haskell despite the fortutious result for those that backed the winner. The proof of that is in the returns.
Maybe this is dispositive: \"Do you think the place and show horses came close to their A race?\" If you don\'t think they did and weren\'t likely to and bet the winner for those reasons congrats. But, I\'d point out again the return in relation to the risk. That said, I don\'t think you scored that Haskell, did you fkach? ;)
Opinions make for horseracing. I\'ll join you at the windows next one, but I doubt seriously we will be on the same horse...:)
CtMC
fkach Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> >The fastest horse at the weights, with the rail
> and a recency edge is \"unsophisticated
> gambling\".<
>
> If the horses that Pletcher has been wining with
> were totally illogical, I could at least
> understand the obsession.
Clown,
No matter how much you write and pontificate, you can\'t change the facts. Read this next sentence carefully. Any Given Saturday was a faster horse than Hard Spun on the figures for all major figure makers. Thorograph, Beyer and Ragozin. No dispute.
On thorograph, at the weights, Any Given Saturday\'s best race (the Dwyer) was faster than Curlin\'s best race (the Preakness). You can ignore the Thorograph figure if you like, but when you are on this board, filling it with rubbish, you should at least occasionally reference the product\'s figures.
Ok, based on those two facts, plus your \"post-race\" analysis that neither Hard Spun nor Curlin was likely to run their \"A\" race, 9-5 on the fastest horse, in a 3 horse race was OK. $24 on the exacta, with Curlin out, was better. Several on this board had \"pre-race\" thoughts about Curlin and we chased the 11 to 1 on the exacta. I will gladly take 11 to 1 on an outcome that is comprised of the winner being a horse I make more then 50% to win, and one of the only other 2 contenders coming 2nd, especially when the contender who didn\'t come 2nd was the one I threw out. Forget the triple, 11 to 1 was a nice cold punch.
I didn\'t expect Curlin\'s \"A\" race, but not sure why your POST-RACE analysis didn\'t expect Hard Spun\'s \"A\" race. That horse runs well fresh. His derby was off similar rest and to many, that was his best race.
I don\'t expect you to understand this, since you don\'t actually use the thorograph figures, but it is probable that the 2nd place finisher didn\'t finish far off his best race, figure wise. He was wide on both turns and got beat 4 lengths by a horse he spotted weight to and who had run a negative 3 four weeks ago. We will see when the figures come up again, but he very may well have run around a \"0\" or \"1\", which is his best race, for now. And Curlin\'s figure is also very likely to be similar to every one of his figures EXCEPT the Preakness. The horse has run five races around the \"0\" range and one race at negative 3. Off the layoff and tough early campaign, expecting a negative 3 was a lot to ask and a \"0\" wasn\'t going to beat the Pletcher at the weights and likely inside trip AGS was going to get.
Oh well, I will stop typing now and go talk to the wall in my house for 1/2 hour and see if I get anywhere with that........
Miff,
I can\'t agree with you more.
Well Put!!
NC Tony
Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah.....I bet you kiss the image in the mirror everyday too....Man you are a Narcissist of the worst kind.
I wish Jerry would do the right thing with you, as we go through this Bull shit once or twice a year.
NC Tony
Chuckles,
Debating whether AGS was good value or whether Curlin and HS ran their \"A\" race has nothing to do with whether Jimbo made the selection prior to the race or whether he was a very logical winner in that spot. He OBVIOUSLY was a logical winner even if you and I didn\'t select him as our most probable winner. That OBVIOUSNESS makes it more difficult to assume that every winner that Pletcher sends out was drugged. The horse\'s 2YO pattern doesn\'t make this summer development illogical. I played the horse in the Derby at a big price hoping it would come sooner. That\'s how likely I thought it was.
Amen.
I have no doubt AGS was the best speed figure horse in the Haskell...no doubt about it.
As for my comment about testing at Saratoga, I was speculating. It\'s not the same from track to track and the results at Belmont simply can\'t compute if I am guessing right.
I\'m only guessing, but I don\'t think you will see AGS ending up as horse or 3yo of the year.
Street Sense, if healthy, IMHO, will win the BC Classic as the last horse standing.
Oh, and one final comment.
Taking drug treatment (legal or otherwise) into account IS part of contemporary handicapping.
Ignore it at your peril.
alm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Amen.
>
> I have no doubt AGS was the best speed figure
> horse in the Haskell...no doubt about it.
>
> As for my comment about testing at Saratoga, I was
> speculating. It\'s not the same from track to
> track and the results at Belmont simply can\'t
> compute if I am guessing right.
>
> I\'m only guessing, but I don\'t think you will see
> AGS ending up as horse or 3yo of the year.
>
> Street Sense, if healthy, IMHO, will win the BC
> Classic as the last horse standing.
Alm,
Why would testing be different at Saratoga and Belmont? As both are NYRA tracks, one would expect the same sample handling procedures, the same type and extent of testing as well as the same testing laboratories. What am I missing?
Thanks.
IMO - Absolutely % 100 excellent assessment and comparison of Bluegrass Cat and Any Given Saturday . Don\'t know what AGS ran in the Haskell but I\'m guessing it was an effort . For the balance of the summer leading up to the BC , a very lite/ medium routine might help keep him together + lot\'s of GD apples ...
Got nothing to do so why not throw something out there...I remember betting during the time and all I kept saying was who is this guy (Pletcher)? It was around when he first brought out Jersey Girl. That would be the time period that I think Pletcher started winning everything in sight..
Take it for what it is, maybe this was around when he switched vets or because of his success with Jersey Girl he started getting better stock..Don\'t know...don\'t really care as I am one of the ones that just handicaps a race as it is given to me with \"step up\" trainers or with the 7 % trainers of the world, to me that\'s part of the fun...Don\'t get me wrong I wish it wasn\'t the case for humane purposes but until it\'s fixed what am I supposed to do...not gamble...that\'s not gonna happen...