Been on a roll lately;everything I pick has been obvious sucker bets.
But I haven\'t given in to wagering until my instincts return.
Hate this \"down\" time.
I say this because I\'ve picked the same #s\' as Jerry.Wishing you all lots of mazel.
davidrex Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Been on a roll lately;everything I pick has been
> obvious sucker bets.
> But I haven\'t given in to wagering until my
> instincts return.
> Hate this \"down\" time.
> I say this because I\'ve picked the same #s\' as
> Jerry.Wishing you all lots of mazel.
what\'s your effin pick?
how you been? it\'s boring here without you.
Been hiding out in Jamaica for almost 3 weeks...love the shopping.
Stay away from using the 3x6w3x6x8w3x6x8x1w3x6x8x1,no3x6w3x6w1x8.Don\'t even think about a 3x6 box.
Only responding out of respect for you.I caught up yesterday on your picks...very nicely played.
As John from Cincinnati would say:\"I\'ve got my eye on you!\"
Silent Name,if not washed out,is a stand out...............
shopping. hmm.
I\'m going long volatility on the cushion.
7. gotaghostofachance (20-1) - was a solid \'1\' horse a few years back, at this very distance. nothing wrong with the \'2.75\' first \'07, bounced, then to a \'2\' last. five weeks coming in. breaks from the 5, but should get to the 1 or 2 path with some speed inside.
hard to predict much of a forward move from a six yr old, but at 20-1, I\'ll hope for a ground saving \'1\' at 115 lbs, and a top three finish.
MichaelD, Alan, others who played ROTW,
When the gate opened,the 9 horse, Bilo, was 18-1and were gradually rising. While the horses were in the stretch, the race almost over, the board flashed again, making Bilo 9-1. Anyone else see that? It has to take a lot of money to do that in the large pools at HO in a stakes race. Has that become commonplace?
raz
Bilo was 18-1 early, took one punch to 14 then to 12 then 11 in the gate, and 9 during the running. This horse was meant and someone gambled this one pretty good.
Mike
razzle Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> MichaelD, Alan, others who played ROTW,
>
> When the gate opened,the 9 horse, Bilo, was
> 18-1and were gradually rising. While the horses
> were in the stretch, the race almost over, the
> board flashed again, making Bilo 9-1. Anyone else
> see that? It has to take a lot of money to do
> that in the large pools at HO in a stakes race.
> Has that become commonplace?
>
> raz
hi raz, thought I saw him longer, but I wasn\'t paying that much attention. is it commonplace? as you can tell from my handicapping, I don\'t play the Hol cushion much. a 10k win bet on a 20-1 could do some damage though, even in decent stks race. would take a bit for the money to flow tru as well. final odds were 9.8, so just about 10-1.
miff, MichaelD,
Thanks for the responses. I was watching TVG but was more focussed on the odds board on Youbet.com. I saw a dip down to 14-1, then the odds rose again. I thought I saw him go to 20-1 just before post, but I don\'t know how much of a delay there is on the Youbet odds board. The 9-1 final was a shock.
miff, I think you\'re very right about the \"meant.\"
raz
I remember seeing him at 18-1 as they were about to spring the gate open. But this seems to happen often enough where I am not surprised anymore in seeing large odds changes from the time the gates open till the horses are across the finish. I don\'t know if this is just the co-mingling of all the simo money coming in or not, but it does breed suspicion.
Bilo
\"...The comeback effort was okay and the pair-up four weeks ago, not bad.
But that level is slow with these. He'll need to jump up even though he gets
in light and that's possible since this is the third race in his form cycle.
(While we like to see layoff horses get back to their tops within the first two
races, often it's the third race in the cycle that yields the big move.) Trainer
Jones is good in this spot and he's hot right now not only getting a high
percentage of winners but also a high percentage of paired and new tops.
(Check trainer stats.) But[/size] Bilo figures to lose ground from the outside post and he has only one figure lifetime which is competitive. He's good at the
distance but[/size]...\"
I\'m glad I\'m not the only one who talks himself out of a winner. Tough race to hadicap. Good review on the winner. Perhaps with the late money, which is a big indicator out West, was very playable but[/size] I just didn\'t see it
\"Has that become commonplace? \"
I have seen several instances of that in the last few years. I saw one at GP this spring that was so blatant I stopped playing at the meet. Every time I see it, the horse that drops in odds is on the lead, beats the gate etc...
I can\'t tell you for certain if someone has the ability to bet into the track pools after the race starts, but I can tell you with 100% certainty that I have past posted on many occasions in the last two years into offshore sites. I do not know if any of that money made it into the actual track pools, but there were clear cut software glitches I was able to take advantage of from time to time. I past posted one race after a 1/4 mile of the race had been run.
So you do the math!
Jerry And I watched the race and we initially thought something was amiss when Vic called the winner at 9-1. We replayed the ESPN feed and Miff is right in terms of the odds sequence so probably everything was on the up and up. Still there were some big punches late, none of which was mine.
Thought Bilo would be wide but Battle Won and Sailors Sunset didn\'t break that well out and the former took back some and as result was wide himself and didn\'t have the punch needed at the end.
Without knowing the figure, my guess is Bilo ran a 1 or 2 and Surf Cat, about 2 points better, since he carried 9 pounds more, which means that Surf Cat ran about at his top. Silent Name and Siren Lure didn\'t run.
Of course we want and trumpet winners when we nail the ROTW. It is a marketing tool but even if we don\'t cash I think there is always something to be learned in terms of good or even bad reads on patterns and the invariable importance of weight and ground lost or saved.
Most of the old hands here know, acknowledge, and incorprate or dispute these points of emphasis so ROTWs may often seem redundant although the particulars change from week to week. But the ROTWs are good for refreshing old, established principles and for newcomers the ROTWs may provide a new focus, new ideas, a new way to handicap with the analysis and Thoro-Graph data serving as a practicum. And that is the ultimate intention.
TGAB and fkach,
Thank you both very much for the insights and thoughtful explanations.
raz
well said, Alan...everyone appreciates the eduational aspect.
For the record, I past posted a race at Delaware park today.
Again, I don\'t know if any of the money made it into the track pools, but it made it into the pool I was betting into after I saw that my horse broke out of the gate well and was making the lead.
cool what do you use
thnks