I think I\'ll go SIGHTSEEING tomorrow! He gets the carrots after a perfectly timed Prado move on the turn...I need a bone
Too bad that Frankel is planning to scratch his horse in the Dwyer, which means the fastest horse, Any Given Saturday, will likely be 9-5 at best, instead of 5-2.
No Biz Like Shobiz continues to be over-rated until proven otherwise. Still hasn\'t ran faster than he did breaking his maiden last year. Blinkers on, then off, first he will run in the Belmont, then he won\'t. Hopefully he is even money or 4-5 tomorrow.
Sorry, but Shug\'s horse is also over-rated. Was life and death to beat a bunch of tin cans in the Peter Pan. Now he gets blinkers. His top is a 3, Any Given Saturday has a top of \"0\" and I think he has a good chance to run a new top off the freshening. THis horse got some pretty bad rides in the Tampa Derby and then again in the Wood, leading to him looking like a live longshot in the Derby. Unfortunately, Gomez gave him the same wide trip that Velazquez was giving him in his prior races. One more time for this guy at relatively short odds.
I think this horse has the potential to step up and compete against the likes of Curlin and Street Sense this summer, where he WILL be a good price. Tomorrow\'s Dwyer is step 1.
Any Given Saturday by 2, running a negative 1.
Firstly, I think the oddsmaker has misjudged the relative odds some. I\'ll be stunned if Anygivensaturday is not favored at somewhere in the 7-5 range.
That said, there are some other horses running fresh that could certainly move forward to win.
On lost ground alone, Anygivensaturday\'s marginal figure edge will be obviated. (He never has, so theres no reason to believe he will pop to save ground.) Short one turn race makes it all very intriguing. Nod to Nobiz on track affinity, which is not win endorsement just yet.
jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Too bad that Frankel is planning to scratch his
> horse in the Dwyer, which means the fastest horse,
> Any Given Saturday, will likely be 9-5 at best,
> instead of 5-2.
>
> No Biz Like Shobiz continues to be over-rated
> until proven otherwise. Still hasn\'t ran faster
> than he did breaking his maiden last year.
> Blinkers on, then off, first he will run in the
> Belmont, then he won\'t. Hopefully he is even
> money or 4-5 tomorrow.
>
> Sorry, but Shug\'s horse is also over-rated. Was
> life and death to beat a bunch of tin cans in the
> Peter Pan. Now he gets blinkers. His top is a 3,
> Any Given Saturday has a top of \"0\" and I think he
> has a good chance to run a new top off the
> freshening. THis horse got some pretty bad rides
> in the Tampa Derby and then again in the Wood,
> leading to him looking like a live longshot in the
> Derby. Unfortunately, Gomez gave him the same
> wide trip that Velazquez was giving him in his
> prior races. One more time for this guy at
> relatively short odds.
>
> I think this horse has the potential to step up
> and compete against the likes of Curlin and Street
> Sense this summer, where he WILL be a good price.
> Tomorrow\'s Dwyer is step 1.
>
> Any Given Saturday by 2, running a negative 1.
Jimbo. I respect your opinion but if I\'m not mistaken, half of handicapping is forseeing what a horse can do and might do. I think Sightseeing can jump forward and will today. At 3-1 or higher, it\'s worth a Bejamin Franklin or two on his nose. At least that\'s my take. I will not play him at anything less than 3-1. Prado up also bodes well. Good luck.
Odds on sounds about right and if he\'s as fit as his pattern would indicate -IMO , this horse probably runs a 2 to 3 pt top now - perhaps something in the negative -3 range ...
I don\'t see much of a bet here.
Nobiz didn\'t get the distance in the Derby, and wasn\'t running all that fast at the end of the 9F Wood. The cutback, the return to Belmont, and the time off might be the rx for the long awaited breakthrough.
AGS also has license to run fast here. He didn\'t get the Derby distance either, and might not have been conditioned properly for the Wood. Rested, might come out running.
Not much interest in the long shots. I don\'t know what to expect out of Sight with the equipment change.
jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Too bad that Frankel is planning to scratch his
> horse in the Dwyer, which means the fastest horse,
> Any Given Saturday, will likely be 9-5 at best,
> instead of 5-2.
>
> No Biz Like Shobiz continues to be over-rated
> until proven otherwise. Still hasn\'t ran faster
> than he did breaking his maiden last year.
> Blinkers on, then off, first he will run in the
> Belmont, then he won\'t. Hopefully he is even
> money or 4-5 tomorrow.
>
> Sorry, but Shug\'s horse is also over-rated. Was
> life and death to beat a bunch of tin cans in the
> Peter Pan. Now he gets blinkers. His top is a 3,
> Any Given Saturday has a top of \"0\" and I think he
> has a good chance to run a new top off the
> freshening. THis horse got some pretty bad rides
> in the Tampa Derby and then again in the Wood,
> leading to him looking like a live longshot in the
> Derby. Unfortunately, Gomez gave him the same
> wide trip that Velazquez was giving him in his
> prior races. One more time for this guy at
> relatively short odds.
>
> I think this horse has the potential to step up
> and compete against the likes of Curlin and Street
> Sense this summer, where he WILL be a good price.
> Tomorrow\'s Dwyer is step 1.
>
> Any Given Saturday by 2, running a negative 1.
8/5 on \"death and taxes\". can\'t beat that.
we do indeed have a serious shooter for the summer races.
Michael,
I\'ll give back my 8-5 on Any Given Saturday if I can get part of your 5-1 on High Finance :)
AGS runs next in either the Jim Dandy against Street Sense or the Haskell against Curlin. I will hope for better odds there!!
Buck,
Respect your opinion also, and certainly not gloating at an 8-5 shot winning. (it takes 8-1 for me to gloat).
But you bring up an interesting topic in your post. I think we can agree that reading the thorographs is about figuring out what a horse CAN run that day, not HAS RUN IN THE PAST. The topic that you don\'t specifically mention, but your comment reminds me of, is \"what odds do you need to have on a horse, if you need the horse to run a new top to win\". The Dwyer was a bad betting race because of the 5 horse field, but you can look at it. Even though it probably didn\'t happen based on the result, you can make a case that expecting a new top out of Sightseeing was reasonable. The problem I would have with him is that he starts out 2 points slower than another horse in the race and gets no weight and was seemingly unlikely to get a significant ground loss edge. Unless you were betting Any Given Saturday to regress off the 8 week freshening, which seemed unlikely given Pletcher\'s stats off this kind of layoff, you are hoping for a 2 point new top or better and looking for 3-1. Hopefully for you, you were disciplined enough to lay off the race when he went off at only 5-2.
Betting horses with form (not 2 year olds or early spring 3 year olds), I am usually looking for 5-1 or better when I know I very likely need my horse to run a new top to win the race. It isn\'t an ironclad rule for and you have to adjust for small fields somewhat, like today, but curious as to what other bettors think about this.
Passed the race Jimbo. I don\'t want to give back ANY of my Derby Winnings:-)
2-1 on \'Sight in a five horse field with a moderate pace was non attractive in the end. Would have needed 3-1 minimum. Funny how that one point makes such a difference - at least in my eyes. If the Frankel stays in - SS goes off at 4-1 and I plunge and get beat. Really strange ride by Prado. The bold/premature move down the backside was very uncharacteristic of him.
This discussion reminds me of the 1997 Silver Charm/Bodgit/Freehouse/Touch Gold Preakness Stakes. I was all over Bodgit with tickets in hand but with two minutes to post and \'Charm at 7-2 or 4-1, I ran back to the window and changed all my tickets to \'CHarm win tickets. He ended up going off at 3-1 and as you remember he beat both Free House and Bodgit who went off at 2-1 respectively. That one point of value, though not much, sometimes means all. And sometimes, we get it right
Congrats, you called that one pretty much right on. I think even to the point of the negative figure.
jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Buck,
>
> Respect your opinion also, and certainly not
> gloating at an 8-5 shot winning. (it takes 8-1 for
> me to gloat).
>
> But you bring up an interesting topic in your
> post. I think we can agree that reading the
> thorographs is about figuring out what a horse CAN
> run that day, not HAS RUN IN THE PAST. The topic
> that you don\'t specifically mention, but your
> comment reminds me of, is \"what odds do you need
> to have on a horse, if you need the horse to run a
> new top to win\". The Dwyer was a bad betting race
> because of the 5 horse field, but you can look at
> it. Even though it probably didn\'t happen based
> on the result, you can make a case that expecting
> a new top out of Sightseeing was reasonable. The
> problem I would have with him is that he starts
> out 2 points slower than another horse in the race
> and gets no weight and was seemingly unlikely to
> get a significant ground loss edge. Unless you
> were betting Any Given Saturday to regress off the
> 8 week freshening, which seemed unlikely given
> Pletcher\'s stats off this kind of layoff, you are
> hoping for a 2 point new top or better and looking
> for 3-1. Hopefully for you, you were disciplined
> enough to lay off the race when he went off at
> only 5-2.
>
> Betting horses with form (not 2 year olds or early
> spring 3 year olds), I am usually looking for 5-1
> or better when I know I very likely need my horse
> to run a new top to win the race. It isn\'t an
> ironclad rule for and you have to adjust for small
> fields somewhat, like today, but curious as to
> what other bettors think about this.
look at Flower Alley\'s sheet in the archives (2006 BC).
the rush to get some of these to the Derby does some damage.
then, given the proper rest after the Derby, some of these talented Pletchers really get running.
AGS is faster than FA was before the Derby, and his Dwyer win likely wasn\'t the same type forward move, but it just goes to show how important timing is for the Pletcher horses.
the problem for AGS, tho, is that he\'s going to find the August running a lot tougher than FA found it.
Michael,
Good point, although I am guessing that AGS\'s race yesterday is probably a 2 point top or so. Sightseeing and Nobiz Like Shobiz have pretty consistent figures and unless Jerry gives them both big bounces, AGS is in the negative 2 range or so, which makes him competitive with STreet Sense and Curlin. We\'ll see in the Jim Dandy. I read that Tiz Wonderful is pointing for the Jim Dandy as well. He will have been off a long time, but this was a very talented looking horse as well.
Chuckles,
Great call by Michael on High Finance and poor call by me. However, your sarcastic post is unnecessary. If one believed Commentator was unbeatable yesterday, which I did, the race was unbettable. With YOUR HINDSIGHT today, of course I am wrong. It would be nice to see you make a call BEFORE a race, like Michael did with High Finance and others on this board do regularly, instead of the usual sarcasm after the races and denigrating comments about the horses that ran. I am going to vomit if I read one more time that Rags to Riches AMBUSHED the colts in the Belmont and didn\'t win \"on the square\". She did what 4 of the last 5 belmont winners have done, had 5 weeks spacing into the Belmont. It is an edge, but doesn\'t take away from her performance. She has a good shot to be \"great\", if she isn\'t prematurely retired and she doesn\'t need to beat the boys again to be great, although we all would like to see her try it! I suspect that by the end of the year, this 3 year old crop is going to look pretty strong. We already know about Curlin and Street Senses. Any Given Saturday looks to have potential, Tiz Wonderful might be good when he gets back, and there are some others as well. With the lousy older horses we have, we might see a replay of the Breeders Cup Classic back when Tiznow won it the 1st time, as I believe the 3 year olds finished in the top 4 spots or so. (and FuPeg the favored 3 year old wasn\'t even in one those spots)
\"With the lousy older horses we have, we might see a replay of the Breeders Cup Classic back when Tiznow won it the 1st time, as I believe the 3 year olds finished in the top 4 spots or so. (and FuPeg the favored 3 year old wasn\'t even in one those spots)\"
For the record it was
Tiznow
Giant\'s Causeway
Captain Steve
Albert the Great
Lemon Drop Kid
Fu Peg
Cat Thief
Vision and Verse
Gander
Pine Dance
Dust on the Bottle
Guided Tour
Golden Missile
A VERY strong field in my opinion.
Seems like there is already dissension among the ranks of the Greatness
Committee, the meetings of which of course should be held at the Carolina Cue
and not the very highbrow Siros or the very lowbrow Desperate Annies, the
Caroline Street dive which has been in operation at least since the Decade of
Champions.
Jimbo: Do not be deterred by the sarcasm of that denizen of the Redboard Room,
Chuckles the Clownmentator; just be aware that he offers his opinion pre-post
time only in races with a purse in excess of $1 million.
Jimbo: Check with Silver Charm before you denigrate this years older horses; in
a recent post of SC\'s the words \"Forego and now Lava Man\" appeared (LOL). And
of course there is the possibility that Funny Cide\'s rousing victory at Finger
Lakes will revive his career. Do Funny Cide\'s owners still have that death
cheese colored schoolbus? Is it possible it will be seen in Oceanport at the end
of October? (LOLouder).
On a serious note, for those who haven\'t been to the Spa recently, or haven\'t
visited the Carolina Cue, I once again recommend it, even though I have been
banned for life for suggesting to the proprietor that the \"Cue\" being served
there was just a notch below that slung at Boog\'s Barbecue Pit, the eatery
located at Camden Yards (and for a couple of summers at Monmouth) named for and
operated by the Orioles portly first sacker of the 60s.
Some of those are not doing to bad in the breeding shed as well
richie:
Unfortunately DA\'s as we affectionately called it is no longer in operation. If you go downtown at the spa now all you can get is 10.00 glasses of wine or appletinis.
Gowand:
Ouch. I\'ve been told I had some wild times in that place.
RONWAR,
If ever there was a justification to retire ones\' colt and make BIG bucks in the breeding barn....that list just says it all.
Jimbo, I\'m not in the habit of going into my views regarding races outside of the Triple Series or the occasional race that I believe needs to be revisited. This years Belmont stakes for example. When the time arrives for renewing efforts I\'ll discuss how the earlier race applies. Not so much to project a winner, but to point out how the earlier effort was misapprehended. In that analysis though if one pays attention you\'ll probably discern where my wagers went.
I could pull previous posts regarding my disdain for Commentator, but suffice it to say I\'ve always considered him vastly over rated and a juicy target. I always take shots at him at even money or less in the better company. I changed my mind, heres some posts don\'t miss the ones I noted.
http://www.thorograph.com/phorum/read.php?1,33334,33334#msg-33334
http://www.thorograph.com/phorum/read.php?1,31580,31580#msg-31580
http://www.thorograph.com/phorum/read.php?1,31218,31229#msg-31229
http://www.thorograph.com/phorum/read.php?1,31209,31216#msg-31216
http://www.thorograph.com/phorum/read.php?1,31209,31212#msg-31212
http://www.thorograph.com/phorum/read.php?1,31209,31225#msg-31225
Don\'t miss this one. What follows really illustrates what I think of that Pig:
http://www.thorograph.com/phorum/read.php?1,22508,22630#msg-22630
http://www.thorograph.com/phorum/read.php?1,22508,22618#msg-22618
http://www.thorograph.com/phorum/read.php?1,22508,22606#msg-22606
Don\'t miss this one either\"
http://www.thorograph.com/phorum/read.php?1,22508,22597#msg-22597
jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Michael,
>
> Good point, although I am guessing that AGS\'s race
> yesterday is probably a 2 point top or so.
> Sightseeing and Nobiz Like Shobiz have pretty
> consistent figures and unless Jerry gives them
> both big bounces, AGS is in the negative 2 range
> or so, which makes him competitive with STreet
> Sense and Curlin. We\'ll see in the Jim Dandy. I
> read that Tiz Wonderful is pointing for the Jim
> Dandy as well. He will have been off a long time,
> but this was a very talented looking horse as
> well.
>
> Chuckles,
>
> Great call by Michael on High Finance and poor
> call by me. However, your sarcastic post is
> unnecessary. If one believed Commentator was
> unbeatable yesterday, which I did, the race was
> unbettable. With YOUR HINDSIGHT today, of course
> I am wrong. It would be nice to see you make a
> call BEFORE a race, like Michael did with High
> Finance and others on this board do regularly,
> instead of the usual sarcasm after the races and
> denigrating comments about the horses that ran. I
> am going to vomit if I read one more time that
> Rags to Riches AMBUSHED the colts in the Belmont
> and didn\'t win \"on the square\". She did what 4 of
> the last 5 belmont winners have done, had 5 weeks
> spacing into the Belmont. It is an edge, but
> doesn\'t take away from her performance. She has a
> good shot to be \"great\", if she isn\'t prematurely
> retired and she doesn\'t need to beat the boys
> again to be great, although we all would like to
> see her try it! I suspect that by the end of the
> year, this 3 year old crop is going to look pretty
> strong. We already know about Curlin and Street
> Senses. Any Given Saturday looks to have
> potential, Tiz Wonderful might be good when he
> gets back, and there are some others as well.
> With the lousy older horses we have, we might see
> a replay of the Breeders Cup Classic back when
> Tiznow won it the 1st time, as I believe the 3
> year olds finished in the top 4 spots or so. (and
> FuPeg the favored 3 year old wasn\'t even in one
> those spots)
Chuckles_the_Clown2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Jimbo, I\'m not in the habit of going into my views
> regarding races outside of the Triple Series or
> the occasional race that I believe needs to be
> revisited.
huh?
you were firmly against AGS, the easy winner of the Dwyer (the very winner Jim called death and taxes).
Michael D. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuckles_the_Clown2 Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Jimbo, I\'m not in the habit of going into my
> views
> > regarding races outside of the Triple Series or
> > the occasional race that I believe needs to be
> > revisited.
>
> huh?
>
> you were firmly against AGS, the easy winner of
> the Dwyer (the very winner Jim called death and
> taxes).
I didn\'t say I was against AGS. I said he was no better than the others. The odds made the race unplayable, but Jimbo was right. He was better than the others.
AGS and Commentator are by the same sire if I\'m not mistaken. AGS hasn\'t come close to Commentators figures, but hes more horse. Commentator has more negative 5\'s than Carter has pills, but none of those Negative 5\'s are legitimate and thats why he is a perpetual target.