Interesting - that\'s a big difference in time.
From DRF yesterday:
The time of one of those two races gets a test in a rather unscientific manner in Saturday\'s Louisville Handicap at Churchill Downs. Among the 12-horse field are five entrants exiting the April 27 Elkhorn Stakes at Keeneland, a race that Trakus timed as being run in 2:27.12, 3.28 seconds faster than the official timer at Keeneland did.
One of those two times - 2:27.12 for Trakus, 2:30.40 officially - is seemingly incorrect. It is up to horseplayers to determine which one they trust.
The time our trackman got was much closer to the track time. But since the pace was extremely slow (1:16 6f, last half mile about 2 seconds faster than the opening half), the final time was academic-- it was an \"s. pace\" race.
Have you done any work on the Keeneland Trakus ground loss data? I just had a quick look and compared each winner\'s ground loss compared against the mean ground loss of the 2nd 3rd and 4th placed in the race.
6f races april 6-27 All poly (no grass races)
-2.4 ie the winner traveled 2.4ft less than the mean of 2nd 3rd and 4th horses
+8.0 ie the winner traveled 8.0ft more than the mean of 2nd 3rd and 4th horses
-16.3
+2.0
+5.7
-8.3
+2.3
-4.3
-22.7
-10.0
+4.3
+13.0
+2.7
----------
13 races 7+ 6- , median = +2.0ft , Ave +ve = 5.4ft , Ave -ve = 10.7ft
7f races
+14.7
-1.0
+12.3
+12.3
-33.0
+5.3
+15.3
-25.0
-14.7
-4.6
+8.3
-12.0
-5.3
+17.3
+2.0
-6.0
+1.3
-27.0
-25.0
-5.3
0.0
+8.7
-28.0
-15.7
-9.0
+4.6
+19.7
-29.0
+6.7
+12.0
+23.0
+20.0
+17.7
-8.0
========
33 races, 17+ 16-, median = +1.3ft , ave +ve = 11.8ft , ave -ve = 15.5ft
8.5f races
+13.7
+8.6
+4.3
-16.7
-47.0
-30.7
-23.0
-13.7
+13.0
+5.0
+60.3
-14.3
-2.0
+2.7
+49.0
+11.3
+3.0
+21.3
+16.7
-17.7
+16.0
-2.6
+37.0
-30.3
-16.7
+8.0
+2.3
+18.0
+33.0
=============
29 races, 18+ 11- , median = +4.3ft , ave +ve = 17.9ft , ave -ve = 19.5ft
9f races
-18.3
+22.7
+9.7
+12.0
-44.7
-17.0
-20.7
+7.3
+19.3
+39.0
+38.3
-1.3
-19.0
+9.7
=========
14 races, 8+ 6- , median = +8.5ft , ave +ve = 19.7ft , ave -ve = 20.2ft