What were the odds of Curlin running a lifetime best thoro figure in the Preakness - his third start in 5 weeks following a small bounce in the Derby? I didn\'t play or purchase the Preakness sheets so I didn\'t see his thoro pattern. Beyer gave him a 111 which is a 9 point jump from his previous best Beyer figure.
Next question: Did drugs play a role in his performace Saturday? Without samples, I\'m left with my prior suspicions of Asmussen (who as we know has served a suspension for drug infractions). Another thing that made me suspicious is how he would run along, rebreak, run along, rebreak and run on again. It also confused Gary Stevens on the NBC telecast.
Next Question: Does anyone know if the Pimlico race course tested this horse for dope either prior or post race?
Last question: Did anyone on this board bet on Curlin to win? If yes - please tell me why...
Thank you for your patience
Thoro Pattern for Curlin:
STS TOP PAIR OFF X
373 32% 36% 18% 14
Buck,
I needed Curlin for the 11th/12th Double and if Mending Fences did not fall down for another 15k in the p4. Thought he had the most raw talent pre derby and thought that race helped him mature.Felt he was butchered by Albarado in the derby(and in the preakness) and hoped SS may not have been as good away from CD but he was.Thought the new shooters were a joke and knew CQ was just a \"why not\" entry by TAP.CQ confirmed his empty derby showing and the rest showed they did not belong.
Except for the nice effort by CP West, the race went pretty much the way it was bet by the public.Buck what you saw and what Stevens referred to was a big green colt who will only get better if he stays sound.If the horse was trained by anyone else there would be no question.Actually thought that the Asmussen filly that won that Grade 2 on friday was more impressive than Curlin the way she dismissed that field with impunity.
Mike
Uncle Buck Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> What were the odds of Curlin running a lifetime
> best thoro figure in the Preakness - his third
> start in 5 weeks following a small bounce in the
> Derby? I didn\'t play or purchase the Preakness
> sheets so I didn\'t see his thoro pattern. Beyer
> gave him a 111 which is a 9 point jump from his
> previous best Beyer figure.
>
> Next question: Did drugs play a role in his
> performace Saturday? Without samples, I\'m left
> with my prior suspicions of Asmussen (who as we
> know has served a suspension for drug
> infractions). Another thing that made me
> suspicious is how he would run along, rebreak, run
> along, rebreak and run on again. It also confused
> Gary Stevens on the NBC telecast.
>
> Next Question: Does anyone know if the Pimlico
> race course tested this horse for dope either
> prior or post race?
>
> Last question: Did anyone on this board bet on
> Curlin to win? If yes - please tell me why...
>
> Thank you for your patience
Hi Buck,
Curlin had the best T-P you will ever see, with a decent, but not large (imo) sample size.
Asmussen told anyone who would listen that Curlin looked great the day after the Derby. I don\'t think the Derby was all that fast, so I\'m not that surprised he came back ok. As for the surge late, I think he does get good heart from Bates Motel, and he already has the sub :12 surge while running a \'0\' in the Ark Derby on his resume.
As for drugs - Asmussen is a confirmed cheater, so he has to put up with the speculation. I listened to him speak a lot during the week though, and I got the feeling he knows what the hell he is doing. He appears to be a decent horseman who just plays it loose with the medication rules (oxymoron?). In short, medication probably played a role, but he did a great job training the colt.
I did not play Curlin. I was against SS because he was away from CD and the big fave, and I played against HS because I thought he was the spent horse. It came down to Curlin and CQ for me, and I made the decision that CQ had the more legitimate excuse in the Derby. As it turns out, Curlin was indeed taken out of him game in the Derby, while CQ just lacked the punch going the longer distances. Also, I was not thrilled with taking 3-1 on Albarado in a triple crown race. The two week timing was not a factor for me, as I made it a four horse race, and they were all in the same boat.
Buck, I bet Curlin in a round about way in a Superfecta Wheel.
Heres why I felt he was legit.
1. Off a big maiden win as a 3YO some very heavy heads in the Thoroughbred Industry Triple Teamed to purchase Curlin privately for 3.5 million. They could have easily spent that much and more at the yearling sale for about any horse of their choosing. They Chose Curlin. By the way, where is \"The Green Monkey\"?
These folks bought Curlin for more than a fast figure however. He looked the part and he has a pedigree that screamed \"Run me Long\".
2. They listened to that Pedigree and ran him long in the Ark and he destroyed that field and corroborrated their good judgement. It was a fast time. For illustration, Team Valor went out on the limb for 350K for a \"Littleexpectations.\"
3. He found trouble in the Derby yet still closed well for third. Post Preakness I\'ve read several accounts he ran green early in the Derby. I was not privy to that view pre Preakness, but factored him as the last of 3 that could win.
4. When a young improving 1st rate horse is stringing the same number, I dont read that as negative. I saw Afleet Alex do it as a 2YO and personally I expected a better effort out of Curlin in the Preakness. He gave it.
Conclusion: Are there drugs involved? Yes I would say so. Where they involved in the Preakness? I\'m less confident of that. Is Curlin a good horse regardless of the drug considerations? Absolutely.
CtC
Uncle Buck Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> What were the odds of Curlin running a lifetime
> best thoro figure in the Preakness - his third
> start in 5 weeks following a small bounce in the
> Derby? I didn\'t play or purchase the Preakness
> sheets so I didn\'t see his thoro pattern. Beyer
> gave him a 111 which is a 9 point jump from his
> previous best Beyer figure.
>
> Next question: Did drugs play a role in his
> performace Saturday? Without samples, I\'m left
> with my prior suspicions of Asmussen (who as we
> know has served a suspension for drug
> infractions). Another thing that made me
> suspicious is how he would run along, rebreak, run
> along, rebreak and run on again. It also confused
> Gary Stevens on the NBC telecast.
>
> Next Question: Does anyone know if the Pimlico
> race course tested this horse for dope either
> prior or post race?
>
> Last question: Did anyone on this board bet on
> Curlin to win? If yes - please tell me why...
>
> Thank you for your patience