Curlin - Still not sure why everyone was projecting a bounce upon strung zeros. He got the best part of the track after they ran too fast early. The track was hot. He\'s bred to run a ways, why not go to Belmont win and make yourself the leader in the 3YO championship and all the juicy stud money that entails?
Street Sense - I need to see a replay but I think he relaxed a little. Thats easy to say when a good horse has nailed you on the line. I do believe this horse is a good one, but losing a little steam at the late stage of the races.
Hard Spun - Obviously a premature move upon very fast fractions. I believe these three will take turns beating each other, especially if this one can hold off just a little longer. May have bounced marginally too. The other possibility is that the race was very very fast. I\'m going to withhold opinion upon that for awhile.
C.P. West - Gotta love a high odds super horse. This race needed it.
Circular Way - Pletcher now goose egg for 75 in Triple Crown Races. Who is Pletcher\'s Heir Apparent? The posters here must know that the Pletcher Era is now over. The late scratches and poor finishes are indicative that they are running more clean... even now. The jester is done...long live the new King. The good news is he didn\'t break down. The bad news is he\'s pretty much a confirmed late run miler.
King of the Roxy - Predicted 7th, 8th or 9th for him so he outran expectations finishing 6th but ran worse than being the crowd\'s 5th choice. They really need to sprint this lightly pedigreed animal. His stud location just changed from Florida to California with a 200% stud fee decrease. Barry Should have listened to John T Chance. Barry, I\'m still available for Pedigree and Conformation analysis but my fee to Team Valor just went up. Barry, I\'ll need two seasons to my 2008 selections for you. Seasons and a consultation fee in 2009 and thereafter.
Mint Slewlep - Scrappy T he wasn\'t, but he did get in some trouble and met some good horses today.
Xchanger - Maybe a bounce, maybe too much pressure from heavier heads.
Flying First Class - He had one chance and Lukas apparently didn\'t understand it.
In the Black Race, but no celebration.
CtC
I agree. Hard Spun\'s move looked premature. To me, he looked very relaxed while off the pace in 3rd early. I saw no reason to rush up wide at that point when they clearly weren\'t walking on the lead or anything. I\'ll have to take a closer look, but first glance suggests he would have been a closer at the finish if he just sat back and moved mid/late turn instead.
Curlin is a very nice horse. Tough loss for SS. It will be even tougher if he comes back in the Belmont and wins there.
Fkach:
I would be very surprised to see any of the top 3 back in the Belmont.
I would be most surprised to see SS, because I am sure Nafzger wants to turn
this colt out for a while. All 3 of these colts have been in hard training for
nearly 6 months and all 3 need to be let down a bit. Lets hope we see them all
in Summer and Fall.
As for the Belmont, expect a couple of Euros. Look for Jamie Sanders, the
Hee Haw honey, to change her mind and throw Herr Teufle back into the Triple
Crown mix. I do not know what TAP will do for the Belmont -- either wave the
white flag (7 total entries in the Derby and Preakness this year, 7 \"NO FACTOR\"
finishes) or enter all of his Triple Crown nominated colts who are still
standing in a desperate attempt to at least accomplish an on the board finish
in one of this years Triple Crown races. Maybe Rags to Riches, the most
accomplished 3YO in the TAP barn and a half sister to Belmont winner Jazil,will
be entered. Maybe Chelokee, who continued to outrun his sprinter\'s pedigree in
a NW3LT dash on the Preakness undercard, will be the interesting new shooter.
No matter which equines show up for the Belmont, who won\'t be showing up is
the 50,000 or so additional humans who would have been in attendance had Street
Sense prevailed and had a Triple Crown chance. So it goes for lame duck,
bankrupt NYRA, and New York racing in general. A line from a child\'s rhyme pops
into my head whenever I think about NY racing...
All the King\'s horses/ And all the King\'s men
Couldn\'t put New York racing together again....
I hope I am wrong.
Obviously bounce was not a factor even on only 2 weeks rest. The top three are still the top three. If these three want to win a championship they need to dance the dances. They all have reasons to believe they can run better.
Street Sense did not run his favored style of race, which will be easier to run at Belmont. That style of course is the Rail Shoot. I don\'t want to ever hear Bo Rail is too dumb to ride again. He realized early the rail was not the place to be and did not put Street Sense down in there.
Curlin had a stumble and got out quicked on the turn, but he came running down the lane and wore down Street Sense. The Belmont turns and stretch should fit him like a glove.
Hard Spun ran as fast to a mile as a horse can run at Pimlico. Essentially ran on the half mile fraction because he erased the deficit a couple of strides past it. Huge premature middle move. Ran way too fast to hit the board, but yet he hit the board. Could take them gate to wire in the Belmont.
Pletcher will bring a bunch more and finish further up the track. Maybe he can bring Bluegrass Cat out of Stud Fee Protection retirement and try for fourth.
richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Fkach:
>
> I would be very surprised to see any of the
> top 3 back in the Belmont.
> I would be most surprised to see SS, because I am
> sure Nafzger wants to turn
> this colt out for a while. All 3 of these colts
> have been in hard training for
> nearly 6 months and all 3 need to be let down a
> bit. Lets hope we see them all
> in Summer and Fall.
>
> As for the Belmont, expect a couple of Euros.
> Look for Jamie Sanders, the
> Hee Haw honey, to change her mind and throw Herr
> Teufle back into the Triple
> Crown mix. I do not know what TAP will do for the
> Belmont -- either wave the
> white flag (7 total entries in the Derby and
> Preakness this year, 7 \"NO FACTOR\"
> finishes) or enter all of his Triple Crown
> nominated colts who are still
> standing in a desperate attempt to at least
> accomplish an on the board finish
> in one of this years Triple Crown races. Maybe
> Rags to Riches, the most
> accomplished 3YO in the TAP barn and a half sister
> to Belmont winner Jazil,will
> be entered. Maybe Chelokee, who continued to
> outrun his sprinter\'s pedigree in
> a NW3LT dash on the Preakness undercard, will be
> the interesting new shooter.
>
> No matter which equines show up for the
> Belmont, who won\'t be showing up is
> the 50,000 or so additional humans who would have
> been in attendance had Street
> Sense prevailed and had a Triple Crown chance. So
> it goes for lame duck,
> bankrupt NYRA, and New York racing in general. A
> line from a child\'s rhyme pops
> into my head whenever I think about NY racing...
>
> All the King\'s horses/ And all the King\'s men
> Couldn\'t put New York racing together
> again....
>
> I hope I am wrong.
If I had Hard Spun, I\'d almost definitely rest him.
They could probably squeeze another race out of SS and then freshen him up, but I don\'t see too much upside to running in the Belmont other than the purse. Nafzger may look to have a fresh horse for the Travers and BC.
I\'d probably consider resting Curlin too.
Chelokee looked pretty good yesterday also even though that was a weaker group. Personally, I think this has developed into a very nice group of 3YOs and I think they\'ve been handled pretty well so far.
Fkack,
Agree,Pino pushed the button too early but still would not have held Curlin or SS who moved boldly. Agree that he would have been closer if he waited.HS is a nice horse, a little short gaited, really quick. Will kill everything if he decides to stay away from the top two in the future.
Mike
I think he can win the Belmont. One is skipping it. These three are gonna be murder on one another...lol
miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Fkack,
>
> Agree,Pino pushed the button too early but still
> would not have held Curlin or SS who moved boldly.
> Agree that he would have been closer if he
> waited.HS is a nice horse, a little short gaited,
> really quick. Will kill everything if he decides
> to stay away from the top two in the future.
>
>
> Mike
I still think the trainer made a tactical error by working him in company with a speedy sprinter in very fast fractions prior to the Derby. It looked to me like he was learning to relax well. Now, even though I think Pino scrubbed prematurely and that\'s what got the horse going too early, the horse is too aggressive again.
Curlin is a good horse, he ran with such authority and determination on the turn and into the stretch. You could see the fire in him. He caught a good horse too.
Ideally I\'d like to see Hard Spun \"hold\" longer. Pino was holding him and then inexplicably urged him after about four poles were run. It was a premature move. The front two were going to back up to him without that urge and if they were dangerous on the lead he could have waited for at least another quarter before he went on. It was a mistake. You have to appreciate Miff\'s comments that it may not have mattered, but it certainly would have been far closer. Though I disagree with whatever he thinks he sees in Hard Spuns action. Hard Spun is not four lengths inferior to the top two.
Regarding the Belmont, I think Hard Spun may be best served running his high cruising speed race. If he gets to the lead and runs relaxed there I think he could bury them. The only horse to worry about is Curlin but he\'ll have to run his eyeballs out to run HS down. Hard Spun will have to be fit enough to not bounce, but it could be a great race. Theres some Rest Up Shooters coming. Wild Guy, probably half a dozen Pletchers. Maybe Hard Spun will go off third Choice. One can dream.
fkach Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I still think the trainer made a tactical error by
> working him in company with a speedy sprinter in
> very fast fractions prior to the Derby. It looked
> to me like he was learning to relax well. Now,
> even though I think Pino scrubbed prematurely and
> that\'s what got the horse going too early, the
> horse is too aggressive again.
IMO Hard Spun needs a rest if they want to have a good horse for later in the season. He\'s had a very long and tough campaign (and I\'m nearly as big as others here on spacing and time etc...)
\"Though I disagree with whatever he thinks he sees in Hard Spuns action. Hard Spun is not four lengths inferior to the top two\"
Chuck,
Despite his breeding, I\'m not that impressed with how HS runs that all important last eighth in classic distances. He is not long gaited and has a very nice stride but it\'s much more quick than it is long.Like SS he is zip quick and notice how SS outquicked Curlin top turn, only to run down by a very determined and talented horse. Gary Stevens marveled at how green Curlin still is and wonders what he may become with maturity.
If HS were to go into the Belmont, loose lead, without the other two, I agree that he would win.There\'s not that much out there to stop him.
Mike
Fkach,
Conventional wisdom says HS needs rest, however all horse recoup from efforts differently. What knocks one out does little to another.All the nonsense about two weeks rest got another hole in its swisscheese with SS and Curlin running their eyeballs out and HS running well.
Saw Len Friedman do a Preakness preview along traditional sheet type dogma lines which ended with a stab at a horse obviously distance challenged because of spacing and a sprint fig.Found it surprising that a figure related to a one turn sprint for KOTR had any relevance to yesterdays race.Can\'t blame the connections for taking a shot worth millions with a win.
There are no hard and fast rules in racing and every day myths are shattered.
Mike
OK, no one has mentioned it yet, so here goes.
If you read my post before the Preakness (I am an SS believer) I reasoned that Curlin was a threat to SS if Pimlico\'s drug testing was not as comprehensive as Churchill\'s. When I first witnessed horses \'rebreaking\' with a vengence in the stretch in Southern California about 10 or 12 years ago, I reasoned something new was happening and not long after we all learned about blood doping at the races.
Curlin rebroke in much the same way yesterday and it\'s my guess he had a lot of help from his vet in the past two weeks.
I didn\'t think that HS could outfinish SS and don\'t think he ever will, conditioning and health being equal. I don\'t think he can win the Belmont loose on the lead or any other way if he has to beat SS to do so.
I doubt Curlin will win the Belmont if he has to face tough drug testing...am not sure what arrangements there are in NY. Otherwise he will be dangerous.
Jeff Mullin was a 35% trainer in SoCal until the Racing Commission spent a couple of million on testing...now what is he, 12%? He never had half the infractions Asmussen has had. Same for Bobby Frankel during the same period.
I don\'t know what\'s more heinous, top trainers using blood doping or the vets who develop and/or supply the stuff they use.
I bet for fun, but if I were betting seriously, if my life depended upon it, I would try to track the movements of the vets who serve the ridiculously successful barns and bet appropriately.
alm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> OK, no one has mentioned it yet, so here goes.
>
> If you read my post before the Preakness (I am an
> SS believer) I reasoned that Curlin was a threat
> to SS if Pimlico\'s drug testing was not as
> comprehensive as Churchill\'s. When I first
> witnessed horses \'rebreaking\' with a vengence in
> the stretch in Southern California about 10 or 12
> years ago, I reasoned something new was happening
> and not long after we all learned about blood
> doping at the races.
>
> Curlin rebroke in much the same way yesterday and
> it\'s my guess he had a lot of help from his vet in
> the past two weeks.
>
> I didn\'t think that HS could outfinish SS and
> don\'t think he ever will, conditioning and health
> being equal. I don\'t think he can win the Belmont
> loose on the lead or any other way if he has to
> beat SS to do so.
>
> I doubt Curlin will win the Belmont if he has to
> face tough drug testing...am not sure what
> arrangements there are in NY. Otherwise he will
> be dangerous.
>
> Jeff Mullin was a 35% trainer in SoCal until the
> Racing Commission spent a couple of million on
> testing...now what is he, 12%? He never had half
> the infractions Asmussen has had. Same for Bobby
> Frankel during the same period.
>
> I don\'t know what\'s more heinous, top trainers
> using blood doping or the vets who develop and/or
> supply the stuff they use.
>
> I bet for fun, but if I were betting seriously, if
> my life depended upon it, I would try to track the
> movements of the vets who serve the ridiculously
> successful barns and bet appropriately.
I could buy into your theory if Pletcher\'s horses had run better.
Curlin is a damn fine race horse, the only thing \"heinous\" was that Albarado didn\'t use Curlin\'s natural speed to get early position in the Derby as it DID cost him dearly in that race. Yesterday justified the talent in this horse, regardless of who was on his back, or what was flowing in his veins.
I guess beauty is in the eye of the beholder. Street Sense takes two strides for every one of Hard Spuns and though HS shortened a bit in the shorter Preakness I did not discern any lost extension in the Derby.
Curlin has the Edge now. He won the Ark, Won the Preakness and can solidify his Division lead with a win at Elmont. If he skips the race and Hard Spun wins, Hard Spun moves to the fore upon the basis of being there.
If you assign points for Triple crown wins...3 for 1st, 2 for Second and 1 for third. The score is
Street Sense 5
Curlin 4
Hard Spun 3
If they spot Hard Spun the Belmont they are crazy.
miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> \"Though I disagree with whatever he thinks he sees
> in Hard Spuns action. Hard Spun is not four
> lengths inferior to the top two\"
>
>
> Chuck,
>
> Despite his breeding, I\'m not that impressed with
> how HS runs that all important last eighth in
> classic distances. He is not long gaited and has a
> very nice stride but it\'s much more quick than it
> is long.Like SS he is zip quick and notice how SS
> outquicked Curlin top turn, only to run down by a
> very determined and talented horse. Gary Stevens
> marveled at how green Curlin still is and wonders
> what he may become with maturity.
>
> If HS were to go into the Belmont, loose lead,
> without the other two, I agree that he would
> win.There\'s not that much out there to stop him.
>
> Mike
>Conventional wisdom says HS needs rest, however all horse recoup from efforts differently. What knocks one out does little to another.All the nonsense about two weeks rest got another hole in its swisscheese with SS and Curlin running their eyeballs out and HS running well.<
I agree with you completely, but I have yet to see a horse that could sustain a very high level of performance over a very extended period of time without a break. HS has been running without a break since October. If he runs in the Belmont, I can\'t see how he could last for a late summer and fall campaign. IMO, he\'ll be toast by then without a break real soon.
alm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> OK, no one has mentioned it yet, so here goes.
>
> If you read my post before the Preakness (I am an
> SS believer) I reasoned that Curlin was a threat
> to SS if Pimlico\'s drug testing was not as
> comprehensive as Churchill\'s. When I first
> witnessed horses \'rebreaking\' with a vengence in
> the stretch in Southern California about 10 or 12
> years ago
The Drug Surge started in 2001. 12 years ago was Mary Poppins Time.
>, I reasoned something new was happening
> and not long after we all learned about blood
> doping at the races.
>
> Curlin rebroke in much the same way yesterday and
> it\'s my guess he had a lot of help from his vet in
> the past two weeks.
Curlin was running hard and ran harder once he changed leads.
>
> I didn\'t think that HS could outfinish SS and
> don\'t think he ever will
He\'ll certainly outfinish Street Sense if that one has to go wide or fails to show up,
>conditioning and health
> being equal. I don\'t think he can win the Belmont
> loose on the lead or any other way if he has to
> beat SS to do so.
He doesn\'t Street Sense is a pass and a wise pass at that
> I doubt Curlin will win the Belmont if he has to
> face tough drug testing...am not sure what
> arrangements there are in NY. Otherwise he will
> be dangerous.
Curlin is the horse to beat if he goes to Elmont
>
> Jeff Mullin was a 35% trainer in SoCal until the
> Racing Commission spent a couple of million on
> testing...now what is he, 12%? He never had half
> the infractions Asmussen has had. Same for Bobby
> Frankel during the same period.
Isn\'t it wonderful what a little substance oversight can do?
>
> I don\'t know what\'s more heinous, top trainers
> using blood doping or the vets who develop and/or
> supply the stuff they use.
The Vets are the stars. The trainers are merely going along for the ride
>
> I bet for fun, but if I were betting seriously, if
> my life depended upon it, I would try to track the
> movements of the vets who serve the ridiculously
> successful barns and bet appropriately.
Knowing when to bet upon and against the Supertrainers is a facet of this game.
Alm,
Curlin was fast before Asmussen got him and did not really move up much at all in his starts until yesterday.Don\'t follow Cal races close enough to know what Mullins figs were then or are now and what stock he has.I\'m surprised Frankel is not doing as well as his norm.
In NY there are checks and balances similar to Cali and the usual suspects are winning at the same rate.FYI many modern trainers play the game VERY close to the point of illegality with some crossing over. Until they have National uniform drug testing and national agreement on the list, dosage and timing of drugs, there will always be a problem.
In defense of all, to assume that every horse trained by certain guys are drugged is as naive as it to assume that there are no illegal drugs being used in racing.
Mike
P.S. I love that word \"rebreak\" it infers an extra tank of oxygen that kicks in just at the right time.Brilliant!
Not being one who wails \"gloom and doom\"about drugs;I went back to looking at the stretch run repeatedly.Damned if it didn\'t remind me of a mullins horse from \"xmas past\".
Funny how a trainer as learned and conservative as Carl would think he was about to win the race...did anyone have any doubt ?
Curlin had already changed leads when he \"caught\" his second wind.
S.S. was showing the effects of coming back in 2 weeks,but he was still going to win this race.
ALM,if you hadn\'t brought it up,Iwould have completely overlooked the visual because its been awhile since Cal.horses have shown that unique quality.
Two other points:
1. Pino didn\'t send his mount,sometimes you just waste an animals\' energy level by trying to slow his advance.H.S. needs to learn how to rate.
2. Curlin didn\'t use his early foot because he stumbled out of the gate.
Amazing how a horse can come again after expending so much energy after stumbling.
>1. Pino didn\'t send his mount,sometimes you just waste an animals\' energy level by trying to slow his advance.H.S. needs to learn how to rate. <
He looked totally relaxed to me when he was sitting 3rd well off them coming out of the first turn. Then, Pino scrubbed lightly, and he picked it up at about the same time the other two were already almost ready to pack it in. The move was probably not as intense as it looked visually, but IMO Pino did pick it up. The horse was not fighting him at all early (at least that I could observe).
Can someone enlighten me as to the belief that the rail was so bad? Two horses in the early races won nicely while skimming the fence for the last 1/4. Flashy Bull was on the rail during the stretch drive (I believe) and in one of the sprint stakes the horse that just lost to Diabolical was on the rail the whole way.
It all depends where you are what they are capable of testing at a given track...there are two substances that are used in blood doping...the first produces antibodies that can be detected more easily...the second does not and it also clears the body fast, which is important when you are shipping a horse from track to track.
A trainer who is using is likely to use different methods in different places.
Regardless, it\'s more important to appreciate the effect of blood doping. Doping won\'t make a bad cyclist or a bad horse faster; it just enables them to burn oxygen more efficiently over longer periods of exertion. A faster horse (Curlin) will find a second wind at a fast speed. An equally fast horse (SS) will fatigue at the end of his race. A slow horse won\'t be in their vicinity anyhow.
TP\'s horses could be juiced up the wazzoo and not beat the top horses if they don\'t have close to their ability. Evidently his two that ran yesterday do not have the ability, clean or otherwise.
So, to be clear, I don\'t think Curlin is a mediocre horse. To the contrary, he\'s a very good one. He goes to a new level when he\'s running on \'full.\'
I said as much in my pre-Preakness post. I just didn\'t know whether the Maryland Racing Commission had installed the best possible labs, which cost a small fortune, but my guess now is that they have not.
If we need a Federal presence in horseracing it need not do anything more than provide a national lab that can test samples after the fact. That way a guy who gets 20 positives will have to answer in a tougher court as opposed to snaking his way out of it, state by state.
I have no clue at as to whether Curlin ran \"natural or not\", but his speed figures have been remarkably consistent despite running against progressively tougher horses and getting progressively tougher trips. I find nothing shocking about such a lightly raced horse hitting a new top yesterday after getting more seasoning in the Derby. I wouldn\'t/didn\'t play him at that price because IMO he needed a new top to win, but I\'m not suprised he ran one.
I know there\'s a lot of talk about all these negative tops etc... But as I said the other day, a REAL LOT of those figures weren\'t legit to begin with because they were earned with favorable pace, bias, trip scenarios, on slop etc... So they weren\'t so likely to be duplicated for that reason. The stats are a little better for the fast figures earned under honest conditons.
I haven\'t been here in awhile, but I really feel a need to say that: Borel is a great rider, but I think he may have blown it when he turned his head to see Curlin next to him. It just seems to me that SS lost some of his action when he did that; pumping and driving forward is the best way to the wire in my opinion. Looking to your right at that point made absolutely no sense. The rider lost his rhythm , and the horse seemed to skip a beat as a result. Borel gets full credit for saving ground in the Derby, and he gets full credit for cutting the corner just inside of Curlin yesterday, but he loses it for that boneheaded, sophmoric look to his right. Sorry folks but that was a tight race and there is no room for such stupid antics at that crucial point of a stretch duel.It really pains me for having to criticize Borel, who I cashed many a ticket with throughout the years, but maybe this is why Gomez and Prado, and in years past Bailey were reached out for in these classic races.
I don\'t see how HS can get that loose in the Belmont. It seems to me that Curlin can show speed if he has to, and as much as I dislike Albarado, he ain\'t gonna let Pino run loose in that race.
BiG Ant,
Understand your opinion on Borel\'s ride. Take a careful isolated look at the total ride given by Albarado,Borel made the mistake you noted, Albarado made three.
Mike
Borel was inside early in the Preakness as well. I don\'t think the rail was bad at all
I agree with you. I really dislike Albarado, but I feel that Borel\'s may come at an especially critical point.(no time to recover). I felt that HS ran on well when Borel got back in rhythm.
I need to see a quality replay, but these are the facts:
1. The Jocks steered clear of the rail most of the day. Note the Derby stretch drive.
2. Borel\'s Stonehouse ran a rail trip as the 2nd choice and became decidedly leg weary in the stretch.
3. Thereafter Borel stated to the media that he did not think the rail was good.
4. The horses that ran well down at the rail were favorites or horses sitting upon big races.
Interpretation: The rail was not ideal. I did not see Street Sense on the rail early and if he was it was in stark contrast to Borels statements regarding the rail. If Street Sense did linger on the rail early I would consider that a factor in why he was beaten on the line.
TGraph is not going to generally take much of a stand on the rail issue. Rail Chaos is not amenable to creating accurate figures. Nevertheless they do note a clearly obvious rail at time. Pimlicos rail was mid obvious, but I\'m satisfied it was not the place to be.
Thanks for the heads up on Street Sense getting down in there. I\'ll have to check it out.
big ant Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Borel was inside early in the Preakness as well. I
> don\'t think the rail was bad at all
I believe Borel couldn\'t get in immediately, I think he dropped back then edged in to about the 1 and a half path, and I think that is where he stood until he tipped out into the stretch so He wasn\'t sitting completely in, but very close to it. The guy is an automatic ground saver. Personally I think he thought he had the race won, but when he saw the piece outside of him he freaked, and his horse lost his action because of it.
Alm, excellent post.
I offered 2-1 that Curlin would be off the board. No takers. (Same with Great Hunter in Derby, BTW) Had I bet the race, I\'d have been really pissed off. And if anyone had taken my offer, I\'d be in the poor house. But thankfully, I came out of the race unscathed.
Gary Stevens made an excellent point that Borel ran out of goggles in the stretch.
When you get beat a nose, little things seem to make a big difference.
I expect a lot of Borel (and Pino) bashing to come. However, I\'ve already gone on record as not being thrilled with either. These are no longer the days of Baeza, Cordero, Pincay, Velasquez, McCarron, Day, Bailey etc.
Because of the way Curlin finished, I was looking for a buzzer, but found none. Curlin lost more ground than Street Sense and will get a figure much better than the outcome looked. What will the Preakness figure be? That is the question. I\'m guessing a neg 1.
Hard Spun ran a great race and had exactly the position I predicted as did SS. (Anytime Silver Charm wants to play me heads up in no limit poker, I\'m ready!).
FFC, as I proclaimed is nothing more than a sprinter. CQ had the wrong running style and KOTR surely regressed further, also as predicted.
BTW, Curlin is a really nice horse. But he did not blow by SS and I doubt either can win the Belmont - if either runs.
Hard Spun is done for a while and I doubt you\'ll see him in races like the Travers, Super Derby or BC classic. He\'s clearly a miler.
Great call by Tom Durkin and a decent job by the replacement bugler Bill School.
Borel tipped out off the stretch turn but, sneaked inside of Albarado, and went by him pretty easily, and I really don\'t think that he expected to see him again later in the stretch. Cal was getting into his horse pretty good with the stick inside the 1/16th pole, and SS was really just running evenly, but evenly may have been enough,it is when he turned to his right to see Curlin that he stopped driving and pumping for about a stride or so, and I really think it may have cost him. I think theat SS is a horse that needs to be kept to a drive , and he may have a tendancy to loaf on the lead. I don\'t think this horse was late, nor do I think he is knocked out.
Perhaps Borel\'s surprise is testimony to your theory, because I thought he was going to jump out of his stirrups when he saw that piece outside him.
Hard Spun... if there ever was horse ready to win a $1,000,000 race as a joke, watch him in a five-horse Haskell against no one, a la Lion Heart and War Emblem. The Belmont is a waste of time... nobody cares. Jazil, Lemon Drop Kid, Sarava, Editors Note, Colonial Affair...zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz Go to Monmouth for a G1 race that will be no more than a workout instead of a tough, dicey 12 panels at BEL.
Perfect Drift Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Hard Spun... if there ever was horse ready to win
> a $1,000,000 race as a joke, watch him in a
> five-horse Haskell against no one, a la Lion Heart
> and War Emblem. The Belmont is a waste of time...
> nobody cares. Jazil, Lemon Drop Kid, Sarava,
> Editors Note, Colonial Affair...zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
> Go to Monmouth for a G1 race that will be no more
> than a workout instead of a tough, dicey 12 panels
> at BEL.
My take as well. Breeder\'s Cup Mile, on the dirt, at Monmouth would certainly seem to be right up this horse\'s alley as well.
I watched the gallop out and cannot argue with your analysis.
Its fairly evident Borel did not expect to see another horse on his hip and it nearly petrified him. He won\'t make that mistake again but it may have cost Street Sense the Triple Crown.
I was betting to beat Street Sense but needed Hard Spun to do it to make any money. I wish Street Sense had pulled it off, but if he doesnt run in the Belmont I will root against him from here in.
The Belmont counts big points in my book. If one of the top 3 win it that horse has the inside edge on HOTY.
big ant Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Borel tipped out off the stretch turn but, sneaked
> inside of Albarado, and went by him pretty easily,
> and I really don\'t think that he expected to see
> him again later in the stretch. Cal was getting
> into his horse pretty good with the stick inside
> the 1/16th pole, and SS was really just running
> evenly, but evenly may have been enough,it is when
> he turned to his right to see Curlin that he
> stopped driving and pumping for about a stride or
> so, and I really think it may have cost him. I
> think theat SS is a horse that needs to be kept to
> a drive , and he may have a tendancy to loaf on
> the lead. I don\'t think this horse was late, nor
> do I think he is knocked out.
Mo, Hard Spun clearly a miler? Couldn\'t disagree more. 3w,3w win at 9f at TP. Pino had him flying into a 45.3 half,1:09 and change 6F. Durkin called it an aggressive move to the lead. Waaayyyy too early and fast a move.This was a disaster pace scenario for HS with FFC and XCH. There\'s a reason Pino has 4,000+ wins in Maryland because he surely can\'t ride with the big boys.
What about his Deby race makes you think this guys a miler? It took one of the greatest trips maybe ever to beat HS that day.
Anybody else think this horse is a miler??
Borel never switched the stick to get Street Sense back to his right lead. He may have done this because 1) he thought he had it won anyway or 2) he turned back into a pumpkin.
Final Observation: not sure if this has been mentioned yet...Curlin\'s multiple moves and incredible surge at the finish. Two facts are for certain here: #1) the race was at Pimlico and #2) Asmussen trains.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
I think his optimal distance may be shorter than 10F, but his races in the Derby and Preakness were good enough for me to believe he could win at those distances if he rated and moved at the appropriate time. He can certainly beat less that the elite horses at those distances.
Unless Mario Pino admits he moved the horse aggressively, as opposed to the horse taking off on his own, we are stuck with the fact that the horse moved early.
In my pre-race post I reasoned that SS connections would worry most about not letting HS get away from them, fearing him the most. SS was back in the pack in the Preakness, but a lot closer to the leaders this time and I think Borel moved somewhat prematurely himself when he saw HS take off.
SS beat HS pretty much the same as he did in the Derby, but not even Nafzger, watching the stretch run, thought Curlin was a threat once SS went by. SS was fatigued as most horses are at that point in a race and continued to slow as he approached the finish. Curlin did not slow down as abruptly because he had a second wind...I don\'t really care whether or not anyone else thinks it was blood doping induced, but I do.
We don\'t need uniform drug rules in the sport as much as we need uniform drug testing. It won\'t change the outcome of any single race, but it will help catch the bad guys and make what they do a Federal crime. It stands to reason, if we can bet interstate we should be protected from fraud at all levels.
Whether or not you think the Preakness was a tainted race, we know for a fact that the super-trainers spend far too much time ducking legal restraints state-by-state. That was a positive TP got last year and there have been many Asmussen positives.
How many of you know \'Silent\' Tom Smith was ruled off for 5 years for drugging horses a few years after Seabuiscuit\'s heroics?
Nothing will change until guys like this lose their livlihoods forever.
PS: HS is already more than a miler by definition...he won convincingly at 9 panels. If he stays sound he will likely beat horses of this caliber up to 10 furlongs at 4 years and up (please remember horses like Beau Purple, Gun Bow, etc. beating Kelso with some regularity.)
\"Unless Mario Pino admits he moved the horse aggressively, as opposed to the horse taking off on his own, we are stuck with the fact that the horse moved early. \"
Watch the replay again closely. Look closely at Pino\'s hand action. At almost the exact time HS started closing the gap, Pino started scrubbing on his neck a little more aggressively.
He\'s not going to admit he made a mistake.
I think you are probably right. It reminds one of the statement Stewart Elliott made before Smarty Jones\' Belmont, saying he didn\'t think it mattered that he had rarely ridden at Belmont.
Then he put Smarty Jones into a drive halfway through the race with 6 furlongs to go. Halfway through a race at most tracks that\'s a quarter mile shorter and a quality horse only has to sustain a 4 furlong move.
Smarty got fatigued far too soon, as a result.
HS did not have to go to the lead when he did in the Preakness. It left him with too much to do.
x
For all those who saw Curlin \"surge\", take a close look at SS \"coming back\" to Curlin the last 40 yards.When the front horse is slowing it LOOKS like Curlin is surging but he was just digging in at the same pace for the last part.
Can\'t really tell if SS was on his wrong lead late as he usually is at the end of races, but if so, that may have caused him the race.
Mike
\"He just got outrun the last part a little bit,\" Nafzger said, adding that Street Sense \"backs out\" of the bridle when he makes the lead.
\"He pulled up a little bit the last 40 yards,\" Borel said, \"but I can\'t take anything away from the winner.
These \"incidences\" of doping at racing\'s highest levels reminds me of a James Bond movie where the main villian was using hyperdermic needles to inject more \"red blood cells\" (EPO) on his stables. Sad times...