Jerry, My hat's off to you as this is one of the most brilliant studies I have ever seen done in my 40 years of following the races.
H.R.
That makes SS approx 16% to pair, Lets see fair odds may be about 5 or 6-1. A big underlay no matter how you look at it.
Rich,
What you need to know and I need to know and anyone else relying on this Study need to know is.....
How many of those three year olds who ran negative numbers in the Study were pairing their two year old tops?
Very interesting study, but just from memory,quite a few of those horses won their next start despite the lesser fig.
Mike
Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>
> How many of those three year olds who ran negative
> numbers in the Study were pairing their two year
> old tops?
The only one that paired his 2yr old top was Stevie Wonderboy who never raced after that. So effectively that leaves none.
Great horses make statistics like these and people that rely on them look stupid. It happened in 04, maybe again this year.
your correct silver charm, but do you need to know that at 7-5?
\"Very interesting study, but just from memory,quite a few of those horses won their next start despite the lesser fig.\"
IMO, if you are looking at peformance extremes and small samples, you have to be careful you aren\'t isolating a biased sample to begin with. IMO, quite a few of those horses earned their fast figure under very favorable circumstances that were unlikely to be duplicated.
I think whenever they run that fast, it can\'t be as likely that they will duplicate it as a more average performance for a top 3YO at this time of year.
But I\'d still analyze it on a case by case basis. I think horses that earned their very fast figures under legit circumstances and with a history of fast figures are way more likely to duplicate them than if they were earned with soft leads, on biased tracks, on sloppy race tracks etc..
One thing that stands out to me after quickly glancing over that study is just how special both Smarty Jones and Bernardini were! The owners of those two caught lightning in a bottle that\'s for sure.
On another topic - looking at the photos of the horses arriving at Pimlico in the last few days - it appeared to me that Street Sense looked pretty thin. His ribs were showing in several of the shots...But according to all reports he\'s bright eyed and ready to roll again...
I\'m simply watching this year\'s Preakness. The Derby marathon took too much out of me!
Jerry,
Not that I think that Thoro pattern is relevant but how do you reconcile the TP for SS and HS in view of the study.
Mike
Thoro-Pattern is for large groups of horses. The whole purpose of the study is to show that those that 3yos that run huge figures are a special case.
Jerry,
I\'m missing it.Are you saying that THO PATTERN does not contradict the study as it relates to SS and HS.
Mike
The Thoro-Patterns are very broad in nature-- they don\'t take into account trainer changes or layoffs, for example. They are a general guide, and in using them you have to be aware of that, and their limitations.
If a study shows that a trainer is 25% overall, but another shows he is only 5% off layoffs, are the studies contradictory?
Jerry,
I was speaking directly to the fact that TP gives SS and HS an excellent chance of running 1,2 again(high chance of tops/pairs) which completely contradicts the findings in the study. I understand the trainer example.
Mike
Miff,
If I may interject. Having been recently enlightened about TP by Jerry and you guys, I think what Jerry is saying is that the TG patterns represent a large class of horses and the study a small subset of this large class with a paticular charecteristc (the -1). It is not uncommon for subclasses to differ, sometimes widely, from the population they are drawn from. They don\'t contradict each other in the sense that they invalidate each other. They just differ because they\'re looking at a different charcteristic.
When there is an apparent contradiction, go with the data for the specific subclass.
Bob
high roller wrote:
>your correct silver charm, but do you need to know that at 7-5?
First off, Street Sense will not be 7-5. If he's not Odds On it will be a minor miracle.
Uncle Buck wrote:
>One thing that stands out to me after quickly glancing over that study is just how special both Smarty Jones and Bernardini were! The owners of those two caught lightning in a bottle that\'s for sure.
The part of the study that appears a little thin pertains to Negative numbers run by Triple Crown Classic winners. Afleet Alex was a victim, but he bucked the trends as well, Smarty Jones likewise. Why might that be a factor? Triple Crown winners have traditionally been through the Grind and emerged as special horses in their class. Obviously Barbaro, a TC event winner, reinforces the study, but at a glance the Negative to Bounce angle in the TC Events is not absolute. Afleet Alex did get sick pre Derby and run on the heavy part of the Derby track late and Smarty Jones got involved in Belmont pace issues. Granted, they may have pulled those races off despite the adversity if they had not run so hard in their prior.
Congrats on the Derby win Buck, in elation one states it was easy, but in reflecting a couple days subsequent after reading, reviewing charts and video, one realizes the factors which developed to allow the fastest horse to win indicate it wasn't nearly the Slam Dunk one thought it was and a little luck played a role. One must always be lucky in this game. Some things improve the prospects of luck. Good Figures are one of those things.
Regarding the ongoing love affair with TAP and the infatuation with Circular Way at least in the Preakness the odds should not be disqualifying. I'm guessing he will go off at about 6-1 and third or fourth choice, which is quite a change from the first 8 races of his career. Still, he may be sitting upon an 0-2 ( Tgraph says No to that) and a change of plans to now run him in 2 weeks with the prospects of Drug Testing looming, once again there has to be a degree of concern regarding his state of readiness. This is a small horse that took time post Louisana Derby and now they rush him right back. In his favor is that Circular Way does not run in the traditional manner of recent era Pletcher runners. He comes with a late run and it may be he's not as medicated. Still, a very risky bet with first three finishers of the Derby here and looking like better horses irrespective of bounce. If Bounce or X is a factor why shouldn't this one X to the moon? Because he will be higher odds?
Lastly, I believe I am now on 2nd or 3rd chance Double Secret Probation. It started with a statement of fact in which I used a Politically Incorrect Term. Fully understanding that I am not an insulated Jerry Falwell and that the hosts of this site need to be hospitable to all in the horse realm and that those I made comments about are certainly involved in that realm, I\'ll do my best to not let my personal biases impact the reputation of their concern. In my defense I would like to point out that I truly do like muslims and don\'t believe most of the falsehoods told about them.
The tolerant folks take what I say with a grain of salt. After all, I once keyed a wager upon Teuflesberg.
Yes Chuck you did bet TBerg, but in the wrong race.
I had 100 to win on him in the Oak Race.....
Stick to race/pedigree analysis. Most of us don\'t have a lot of time to waste.
NC Tony