jerry, could you possibly explain how len gave cir quay a 5 1/2 and you gave him a negative 1/4?
could they have missed the ground loss etc?
thanks hr
Len has the entire race 2 points slower than Jerry. Nothing special about Circular Quay (I don\'t think). The scale is 3.5 points different, the figures for Circular Quay are 5.75 points apart, about the same as the 2 point difference he has on most.
As mentioned previously, Len has Street Sense pairing up his mediocre Bluegrass effort, while Jerry has him pairing the BC Juvenile.
That said, I am not really sure what those differences in patterns say about SS\'s chances in the Derby. On Rags, the fact that he hasn\'t gotten back to his 2 year old top in 3 races as a 3 year old is pretty negative. However, on TGraph, pairing up your top and then running back in 2 weeks, could lead to a regression, so I am not sure there is an EDGE in either figure being right (but would be interested to hear other reads on that)
Street Sense has not fired his best shot...........This guy is the real thing.
All I can say is that Rags calling Street Sense\'s Derby a Pair to the Bluegrass is incredulous. It defies explanation.
jimbo66 Wrote:
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> Len has the entire race 2 points slower than
> Jerry. Nothing special about Circular Quay (I
> don\'t think). The scale is 3.5 points different,
> the figures for Circular Quay are 5.75 points
> apart, about the same as the 2 point difference he
> has on most.
>
> As mentioned previously, Len has Street Sense
> pairing up his mediocre Bluegrass effort, while
> Jerry has him pairing the BC Juvenile.
>
> That said, I am not really sure what those
> differences in patterns say about SS\'s chances in
> the Derby. On Rags, the fact that he hasn\'t gotten
> back to his 2 year old top in 3 races as a 3 year
> old is pretty negative. However, on TGraph,
> pairing up your top and then running back in 2
> weeks, could lead to a regression, so I am not
> sure there is an EDGE in either figure being right
> (but would be interested to hear other reads on
> that)
Agreed, except I can\'t figure out what edge it gives the Tgraph users over the Rags users in the Preakness, which is what it is all about!!
Agreed that SS looks the part. You have to feel for Nafzger because under normal
circumstances SS would probably be 2 weeks into a 30 day turn out after his 3
2007 races.
If SS wins in Baltimore, we all know where his next start will be.
a) If SS wins the Triple Crown, do the dreaded economics of this Sport/
Business demand his retirement? Or does he return for a Haskell/ Travers into
BC Classic encore.
b) If SS wins the Preakness but disappoints a large throng at Belmont, has he
done enough to retire or is he pointed towards the BC Classic?
If SS is upset at Pimlico, I can not see him contesting the Belmont and I think
this scenario presents the most likely chance of seeing SS in the BC.
The question is,will Hard Spun bounce?
Nafzger is on record as saying the Preakness was an after thought. The Derby was the goal ever since the Breeders\' Cup. Unbridled didn\'t win the Preakness. Calvin Borel has never ridden a race at Pimlico. SS paired his BC figure and comes back on only 2 weeks rest.
In other words, at likely very short odds, this horse is up against it. If he loses the Preakness, I\'d be surprised to see him at Belmont.
spa Wrote:
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> The question is,will Hard Spun bounce?
The real question is,do you believe in the Derby #\'s?
If yes and a negative 1.25 for HS-you almost have to play him to bounce as the second choice on two weeks rest.
High Roller said;
jerry, could you possibly explain how len gave cir quay a 5 1/2 and you gave him a negative 1/4?
could they have missed the ground loss etc?
thanks
High,
Also, ASG ran 6 1/2 on Rags and a TOP 0.5(a half) on TG.
Mike
yes this is my point , one guy keeps repeating that the sheets have the race slower, THAT ISN\'T IT, its a FUNDAMENTAL difference, horses moving forward and backwards, I\'m guessing they missed the ground loss and they are getting sloppy.
spa Wrote:
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> The question is,will Hard Spun bounce?
the obvious answer to this question that cannot be answered is, to quote the rotw Loon Star analysis of Reporting for Duty,
\"At long odds, he runs well; at short odds, he bounces.\"
flushedstraight Wrote:
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> spa Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > The question is,will Hard Spun bounce?
>
> the obvious answer to this question that cannot be
> answered is, to quote the rotw Loon Star analysis
> of Reporting for Duty,
>
> \"At long odds, he runs well; at short odds, he
> bounces.\"
Looks like a bounce.
For decades Rags has given out bounce type #s\' when a horse runs up the track,regardless of ground loss or other quantifying circumstances.
When he reviews said horses lines;you often read where he just dimisses that particular performance and he would expect an immediate return to form next outing.
My problem w/that kind of assesment pertains to the animal that throws in a non-effort and is now regressing.
Another difficulty I have is finding enough timewhile handicapping,to figure if all these quirks in the line are to be considered in my wagering.
Browns\' puts out a tighter line where the abysmal finish by certain horses does not preclude any further reaction to the overall line they are presently displaying.(Plus its a hellova lot easier to decipher).
This is just a more managable arrangement for my handicapping span and is not to be contsrued as a slap in the face to ANYONE!
David,
Your comments are noted.I understand your take but performance figures are supposed to accurately reflect each horses\' performance.Bad/slow performances should STRICTLY be scored that way without the fig maker getting too creative as to what he thinks should have or usually happens.
Too often in racing, things happen that are totally unexpected, but yet possible, albeit remote at best.
Mike
Miff,
My experience w/Rags is one of seperation from the norm(that norm having started over 50 years ago).
There was a time when his work was innovative to the industry and over that space of time he has incorporated opinions in his #s\' to help him handicap races using his own methodology.
Maybe no one got it wrong if both parties get it right the next time they give their opinion.
Most of it I understand and use (from tapes),but I find it quicker and easier to use Thorograph.Leaves me more time to formulate my wagering,like if Pletcher can win \"the Oaks\" w/a 2 month lay,then the Derby should be a piece of cake!
By the way,I will be parking cars and shining shoes at the Rogers Av. entrance(the one closest to the \"tunnel entrance\").
David,
You may get a shot to get even, reports seem to indicate that TAP is considering Cir Quay for the Preakness.At least you have a job!
Mike
Well there ya go. Now the layoff isn\'t important to TAP. Now 2 weeks is plenty of rest. Whats important to TAP is what TAP says is important.
Bring him on...Show some guts Mr. Hyde, bring him on. I double dog dare ya.
The problem with bounce is projecting a bounce upon the clearly fastest horses. There is nothing worse than projecting bounce and having it fail to materialize.
On the other hand playing the clearly fastest horse to bounce can be quite profitable, that is of course provided he does bounce. In that context however, how many have to bounce to get Circular Way and or Roxanne into the money? Sounds like you need half the field plus to bounce. Thats an optimistic bounce projection. Good Luck.
ROX..ANNE...
You don\'t have to put on the brake lights
ROX..ANNE...
You dont\' have to put on the brake...put on the brake light...put on the brake light.
miff Wrote:
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> David,
>
> You may get a shot to get even, reports seem to
> indicate that TAP is considering Cir Quay for the
> Preakness.At least you have a job!
>
>
> Mike
HR-- I was out yesterday, first golf of the year (awful). Trying again tomorrow, if I can walk.
As I said before, we usually run about 3 1/2 faster than Ragozin, and he got this race about 2 slow, so we should have all the horses about 5 1/2 faster, if everybody got the ground and lengths beaten right. As David Patent pointed out in an earlier post there are significant discrepencies from that, so yes, somebody made mistakes ASIDE from getting the race as a whole wrong. Our ground can be checked pretty easily by anyone with a tape of the race-- our sheets are posted, and the paths (slightly rounded off) are on the running line. If it ain\'t us-- and since we had 3 guys look at it I\'m pretty sure it\'s not-- it\'s them.
Jimbo-- the differences in figures in the Derby (and other races of the Derby horses, like the Blue Grass and SA Derby) can play out in the reads of horses other than SS, and in races other than the Preakness. As it says over the football field at West Point, \"The seeds sown here, on other fields on other days, will bear the fruits of victory\".