Thoro-Graph figures for the 2007 Kentucky Derby are attached.
hi jerry, some of these figures are so shocking that the only thing i can say is that there must have been huge ground loss for some of the horses that finished so far back but got great numbers, (the 3 that jump off the page, c-quay,ags,tiago)
i pay you for this data so i have to hope you guys are super accurate because this is a premium product, then based on that my second question is WHO WILL BOUNCE IN 2 WEEKS , WHO WILL HOLD UP???
I PREDICT THIS WILL BE THE MOST CONTROVERSIAL DERBY NUMBERS YOU HAVE EVER PRODUCED!
My guess would be that many readers of this board have the Derby on tape. We use one path on one turn = one length, and SS was on the rail. So if you work out how many paths each horse was wide, you can work out the lengths, and subtract them from the beaten lengths to see how much worse they really were than the winner.
Actually, I thought the figures came up pretty close to what I expected. SS and HS got slightly faster #\'s than I expected and Curlin did bounce a little, but not as much as I thought. I\'d say this is an UNUSUALLY formful crop. Love Hard Spun\'s pattern.
Thanks for the figures. I just have one question - it appeared that Imawildandcrazyguy was widest of all on the far turn and much wider than the 3W that was reported. Are you sure about this figure?
I realize that incorporating all that ground loss would give him an almost imposibly good jump-up figure, but he really seemed to be much wider than 3W.
Bob
We got him 1-2-3-4, then fanning out in the stretch, which we don\'t count. We had 3 people look at the race, they all got it very close. One guy messed up one horse, the other two caught the mistake.
I thought immediately that Pletcher is crazy not to run AGS in the Preakness. The numbers certainly would seem to back that up.
Thanks Jerry. The ground loss looked like more but the TV camera angle, which concentrated on the lead horses and only showed Crazy for a split second on the turn, was misleading. The figure you assigned him definetly makes more sense given his past figures. Rag\'s seems to have given him the same ground loss, which is one of the few things both your figures agree on.
Bob
You know what he\'s thinking. Two weeks is too fast to come back off a tough race like the Derby. The horse will either be aimed for the Belmont (if he thinks 12F is doable) or be sent to a Stake race where he\'s much the best.
Did anyone see which horse it was that galloped out especially well after the finish?
I saw one replay that showed a good angle. Someone was full of run after the wire, but I couldn\'t tell who it was and I haven\'t seen that angle again.
Tiago.
I know what he is thinking, but he is wrong.
Thanks. Tiago may be better than his more famous relative (certainly with a few more races under his belt).
MO - The Derby #\'s are pretty much what I had expected too - imo . This years crop does seem very formful in their own right and also compared to recent years as well ...
I\'m retracting this post.
After further review the logic holds with Tgraph. Pletcher didn\'t off on his horses. He was outfinished on ground loss for the most part and the better stamina horses ran by him late.
GJ Tgraph
Speaking of Imawildandcrazyguy, hope he runs in the Belmont.
The horse (AGS) needs time between races. I think we may end up coming to the same conclusion about HARD SPUN, who will be terribly overbet in Pimlico. Wouldn\'t be shocked to see him a slight favorite.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
RICH,
According to Bill Kaplan on our show yesterday, he will.. And Storm in May is looking at the Woody on the undercard or the mile lawn affair Sunday.. Drums of Thunder making the trip to Elmont for something as well! It\'s a \"Kaplanpalooza\'..
?????
the numbers are the numbers put a dress on stop whinning. if you don\'t like them dont use them in the next race any of the horses run. heaven knows there are more than one race every 2 weeks to bet. while you listen to cher cd\'s wondering if the numbers are right others will be having a blast having an edge .
skip to your lou
CTC-- Right. And if you take a look at the 06 BC numbers, still posted on this site, you will see that despite having a bad day result wise, Pletcher\'s horses ran very well there too.
Which is not a comment on whether he is doing something. I don\'t want to sound like a broken record, but until they start publishing the CO2 results, we don\'t know nuthin\'. After that we can start looking.
>CTC-- Right. And if you take a look at the 06 BC numbers, still posted on this site, you will see that despite having a bad day result wise, Pletcher\'s horses ran very well there too. <
IMO, people tend to underrate the impact that two skills have on trainer win percentage.
1. Knowing their horse\'s ability and spotting them properly
2. Recognizing if a horse is doing very well and only running those that are. This leads to a higher percentange of the trainer\'s starters actually running their \"A\" race. (of course many trainers don\'t have this luxury)
In the big races, skill #1 is virtually worthless and I suspect some trainers are more vulnerable to pressures for the big race - which reduces the value of #2.
fkach Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> >CTC-- Right. And if you take a look at the 06 BC
> numbers, still posted on this site, you will see
> that despite having a bad day result wise,
> Pletcher\'s horses ran very well there too. <
>
> IMO, people tend to underrate the impact that two
> skills have on trainer win percentage.
>
> 1. Knowing their horse\'s ability and spotting them
> properly
Agree that Pletcher moves his horses to Tracks where they have a chance. King of the Roxy for instance. \"He\" shipped that one to Santa Anita to try and take advantage of a weak field.
Additionally, its my opinion that Pletcher does not like to race Graded Poly. It brings the horses together and robs them of speed which is an embellished trait in the horses he trains.
I never said he was a complete moron, I said he cheats with drugs. Let me reiterate that...Pletcher Cheats with Drugs.
> 2. Recognizing if a horse is doing very well and
> only running those that are. This leads to a
> higher percentange of the trainer\'s starters
> actually running their \"A\" race. (of course many
> trainers don\'t have this luxury)
Yes, Horses begin doing well when sufficiently oxygenized and ouch medicated. Its easier to get a horse ready to fire an improved effort with the aid of hypodermics. Let me repeat that, innoculations by Steve Allday do help Pletcher\'s horses feel better and thus allow Pletcher to place them in races where once feeling the medical science they are positioned to run their A race and even a race they can\'t possibly run.
> In the big races, skill #1 is virtually worthless
> and I suspect some trainers are more vulnerable to
> pressures for the big race - which reduces the
> value of #2.
Lets give credit where credit is due. Pletcher was mediocre before Mr. Allday came along. Tracks move some horses up. What moves Pletcher up is Mr. Allday, Eclipse Award Winning Vet. The time has come.
CtC
CTC,
All I am saying is that if some average bloke was spotting Pletcher\'s horses and making the determination about whether or not to run based on how the horse was acting, I\'d bet anything that TP\'s win percentage would only be in the mid teens and a lot of these conversations would go away.
I consider that a seperate issue from whether he or his vet are cheating.