I see one horse, COLONELLA at 10-1. Her last is approx 2pts better then anyone. Has 6 wks off top, nice work at sar, first time lasix. Let\'s say she\'a 10% to go foward, 40% to pair up, I figure this is about a 60% chance to win, makes her 7/2. Possible major overlay, and a key horse, you don\'t see them like this to often.
In the 9th, MALAGASH (7/2) back to 3yr top first out at 4, makes for an explosive line, looking for a move foward today.
BOLDLY AMERICAN (20-1) His last race signals a possibe foward move today, his best race since the 10 on dirt last year, seems to be on improve, has rail(52% itm), nice work, can\'t overlook at long odds.
KID MIRAGLIA (15-1)very lightly raced 5yr old gelding ran 1/2 pt better than 4yr top last out. I like the pattern for a foward move, and the price is ok, in the $.
Good Luck
You and I will not be the only ones who has/will notice Colonella. If she goes off at 10-1 I\'ll be shocked. But lots of people don\'t like maiden winners right back to win so hopefully that will help the final odds.
Just Looked at the race this morning and you\'ve got 4 horses all with flat non-improving lines and slower than Colonella. Then you have Smooth Blues who popped a fig only once before as fast as Colonella and there\'s no indication she\'ll run another 7.
Wishful Splendor is interesting and Nickey\'s doing ok so far while Victor Carrero is not unexpectedly finding it tough to win up here.
It\'s gonna be a hot day Wednesday and I\'ll be paying attention to what runners look like in the paddock and post parade.
Heven\'t gotten to the 9th yet.
Possibility of rain in the forecast. Colonella has excellent mud breeding, and has some good speed. I would play her if there is moisture in the track. HOWEVER, there are some red flags. For a speed horse, there is no easier game than a loose on the lead trip going one mile at Monmouth. Even with the perfect set up, the race was not that great. Her quarters went 23.2, 23.1, 25.2, and 26.3
...not exactly exploding at the end, and you are now adding on an extra furlong. Furthermore, Colonella\'s full sister was much better sprinting than routing, so the Pleasant Colony and Northern Dancer blood does not guarantee a successful stretchout in this case. I think she will go off around 3-1, which probably reflects her true chances of winning. I think Shug\'s horse might make a late run in this one. For some unknown reason, he seems to have all of his horses cranked up for a Saratoga meet.
Colonella is a sink or swim pick didn\'t beat much; Hennig fairly strong 1st lasix. Playable at 5-1.
7th: Sightseek JB/Frankel even money or less, big filly number(7) short rest + xtra 1/4mile= bounce; #2 Marquet Rent has been repeating tops at 7.75 including turf might finally break thru (2nd consecutive turf often leads to improved #) playable at 4-1; Soul Sister might be interesting, but Day has been Romans go to guy at Toga.
8th. Whoop dee do. Zavata 1/5 (1/9); huge 2yo # 2.0 will try to beat him with Spite The Devil.
9th: #2 Quantum Merit has been improving dramatically in every start, never gone back possible fav in the race; #12 Hristoforos 12-1 pukey record BUT takes a subtle class drop back where he won once before, last year finished fifth beaten 2L at Sar with road trouble in the same class, in his last at 3/4 he was 12th by 4 3/4 shuffled back, looks like he could be a sleeper in this group, will help tri payout. Skiffington/Day have hooked up in the past.
Good luck with your selections.
I also like Colonella. This is a 1/2 to some real nice runners.
Fast and 1st lasix is a real plus. It\'s going to be near 100 today.
The morning line is simply...WRONG.
If this runner is sent off more than 5/2, I\'ll be shocked.
Good Luck,
Andreo
In the 7th I agree about SIGHTSEEK. MARQUE RENT has been stuck at the level for awhile, this is the fastest horse in the race. While she should breakthru soon, one has to wonder if today is or is not the day, she has moved 7pts off the 2yr top, depending on the odds will use somewhere.
UNBRIDLED\"S PRIDE (7/2) essentially paired the 13-14 in his first 2 at GPark early in the year, moved 2 more points at aqueduct in april. Has been laid up since, but the trainer is hot and is ok off the layoff, should move foward this race or next, the price may be the only issue.
SUMMING STARS (20-1) finally made the 1/2 point move off the 3yr top, this is the only 4yr in the race. Gets a break on the weights, if you can call it that (carrero).
Will jump foward someday, the only daughter of fourstars allstar. ALthough a couple of points slower at 20-1 has a shot to be there.
good luck
Ouch.