After the 2005 Derby when the results were chaotic with Giacomo winning and Closing Arguement second and the heavy favorite soundly vanquished there were shouts from this board that stable oversight had influenced the horses to run clean and that running without drugs was the explanation for that Derby Outcome.
The results made no sense, but after a day or so of reflection it became pretty clear that the pace had been very brisk and that the rail had not been ideal. Traffic compromised some of the better horses and many put no stock in the ex post facto contention that \"Drugs Off\" had played a role in the results.
Fast Forward to 2007.
Conversely, this year we have a situation where an even handed drug test was administered to the entire field days before the race when chemical machinations are most likely to occur. This 3 day preemptive test was not administered out of pure whimsical \"pick a day\". It was administered because the powers that be have consulted with those that know how to \"pack\" blood. The consquence being that if the usual suspects did cheat pursuant to the modus operandi the samples obtained are tantamount to a confession. The alternative of course is that the trainers may have been tipped off the test was coming allowing them to refrain from putting the finishing touches on their horses \"conditioning\"
Some may look at the results of the Oaks and say \"That trainer is not packing blood, he finished 1-2 in the Oaks two days after the test.\" He did finish 1-2, but were the Oaks fillies tested and if so were those two fillies good enough to finish where they did running clean? It may be they did not run clean but I\'ve read no account that they were tested.
In the Derby we have a pre race situation where cheating may result in disqualification. The Key factor is going to be whether the trainers knew the test was coming. If so expect a 2005 clean run Derby this year. If they received no notice theres more jeopardy for the bettor but not as much jeopardy as the trainers are facing.
I\'m watching for scratches and barring none, God has told me to wager all Pletcher horses off the board.
That my friends is a Holy Angle.
CtC