No Question about it,Street Sense by open lengths. Hard Spun and Todd P. finish gimmicks. Money talks and you know the rest.
I think you are right. And at 5-2 with Calvin, I\'m going on record now. I pass the race but reserve the right to brag if Street Sense wins.
LOL
Best of luck to all and if you get a minute, check out my band doing the calls at Suffolk Downs.
I sure hope you\'re right Spa. My pile of tickets is coiled and ready to strike. I went about 90% SS on top with my plays...If he wins it\'s martini time and I don\'t drink...
I\'ll take over the Hard Spun bandwagon. Street Sense flattens out late. Play both ways in exotics, throwing in a few Todds and Curlin. Also tris with CQ on top.
thanks for taking over the bandwagon...I can\'t get past the workout. Saddens me - Jones is a neat guy who always has time for everyone, but :57 and change is the race that might have been.
1) Street Sense
2) Scat Daddy
3) Hard Spun
4) Circular Quay
5) Imawildandcrazyguy -- Longshot special
STREET SENSE just looks too good. Beat them all last year. No reason to think there will be a different outcome.SCAT DADDY Would be top pick if top pick wasn\'t in the race. Lots of good racing experience. Coming into the race with a line suggesting he could be one of the rare ones to pop a new top in the run for the roses. Needs to avoid bad racing luck. Figures to give a much better accounting of himself then he did at this track last year. HARD SPUN slower than the top 2 picks and even than others rated lower. However, has a line suggesting that he too could be a derby jump up rarity. If Pino doesn\'t blow it, looks like he could easily get the best trip. Suspect in the stretch he will be up there and the others will need to pass him. Only time this horse has been passed is when he squandered a good fig on a terrible trip and giving weight. Scary. Circular Quay Fastest three year old. Big problem is that he will definitely need help as a stone cold closer. If he does work out a trip (big if), the others may be too far ahead for his rush to make a difference. Repeat of Louisiana Derby and top selections having difficulties would mean he is the guy.IMAWILDANDCRAZYGUY Like his buried fig in Lousiana. Could clunk up late if a lot of these shoot themselves too soon. Curlin and Nobiz Like Shobiz are overbet but able.
In this mix what I like about Hard Spun is both the blistering work breezing and the fact that he has liked off going. If the track comes up sloppy he will be my single on top. Street sense struggled over the poly and struggled over a wet Arlington. I think the latter wants to hear his feet rattle.
Hard Spun easily upon an off surface. So easy it will be shocking.
flushedstraight Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I\'ll take over the Hard Spun bandwagon. Street
> Sense flattens out late. Play both ways in
> exotics, throwing in a few Todds and Curlin. Also
> tris with CQ on top.
Ctc: I like that you took a bold stand on HS. It might work out. Who knows really. Looks like SS was on the pace somewhat in the loss at AP last Sept. You and I both know that won\'t be the case here. Bo-Rail will take SS back, switch him off down the backside and start his big run on the far turn.
The question is then rather Eastwood-esque. \"Do you feel lucky punk?\" Its really that simple. If its his day - he gobbles up ground and runs by them for fun. If not, you might get away with an empty-chamber in the .357 magnum and SS will get blocked or start swimming in the mud while your HS gallops to a \"shocking\" win...
Grab the popcorn! This is reality TV at it\'s BEST!!!!!
I think Curlin & Street Sense will prove to be a cut above these. I look for them to be open lengths ahead of the rest of the field at the wire.
Calvin is too stupid to win this race....
I\'m boxing in various exotics, Circular Quay,scat daddy, Curlin, Cowtown cat and Dominican. Will bet Some on Dominican to win...but mostly exotics.
Side bet, with Chuckles head to head with Domincan vd Tim Tuefle. I guess since he doesn\'t bet money, it will be bragging rights. I will ban myself from the board if T beats D today.
NC Tony
Asmussen has been on a roll lately and I think it will conitnue today. Curlin wins and Zanjero is in the Super. Any Given Saturday will run the best for Pletcher.
Its not that bold a stand Buck. I\'m watching the weather like a hawk. I want Hard Spun on a clearly wet surface. If this track continues to dry I will be on either Curlin or Street Sense.
Uncle Buck Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Ctc: I like that you took a bold stand on HS. It
> might work out. Who knows really. Looks like SS
> was on the pace somewhat in the loss at AP last
> Sept. You and I both know that won\'t be the case
> here. Bo-Rail will take SS back, switch him off
> down the backside and start his big run on the far
> turn.
>
> The question is then rather Eastwood-esque. \"Do
> you feel lucky punk?\" Its really that simple. If
> its his day - he gobbles up ground and runs by
> them for fun. If not, you might get away with an
> empty-chamber in the .357 magnum and SS will get
> blocked or start swimming in the mud while your HS
> gallops to a \"shocking\" win...
>
> Grab the popcorn! This is reality TV at it\'s
> BEST!!!!!
NoCarolinaTony Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Calvin is too stupid to win this race....
>
> I\'m boxing in various exotics, Circular Quay,scat
> daddy, Curlin, Cowtown cat and Dominican. Will bet
> Some on Dominican to win...but mostly exotics.
>
> Side bet, with Chuckles head to head with Domincan
> vd Tim Tuefle. I guess since he doesn\'t bet
> money, it will be bragging rights. I will ban
> myself from the board if T beats D today.
lol, oh i bet real money alright, I just don\'t bet it til the last 20 minutes is all.
I won\'t hold you to the ban Tony. You\'re too much fun, but the second best handicapper I know thinks Der Teufle is gonna be tough.
>
> NC Tony
J....put your money back in the pocket.
my 5 are any given saturday nobiz like shobiz scat daddy stormello and tiago in an exacta box are bar shoes on or off for scat daddy last i heard this morning they are off any one know for sure?
off
I like Any Given Saturday if Gomez gets him any type of a trip.
He has competitive speed figs plus room to go up from his 2yo top.
He really reminds me of Bluegrass Cat, pletcher horse, highly touted early in the year, great breeding, and a race that was not quite as good as the prep right before the derby.
If he would have drew the 6th or 7th hole, i would love him but the trip is going to be key. I like him with street sense.
John
thanks spa
Curlin-visually impressive last. Have we seen his best? Could be sitting on a monster.
Zanjero-a win at CD and should fill out exotics
Street Sense-best horse in the field. Needs the trip to prove it.
Hard Spun-1st time Derby trainer and big workout are scary.
No Biz-rank in first turn, bumps rivals, moves backside, nothing left
Sam P.-blinkers off, could go forward, longshot
SD-bar shoes and breeding are a concern
CQ-Won once over a mile against weak field. Eight weeks too much.
AGS-18 hole for a horse going off form. Will be lucky to beat half the field.
Dominican-Poly expert. Breeding says this is too far.
GH-Big win off shelf, small bounce on poly, may move forward but post is ridiculous.
Street Sense/Curlin/Hard Spun/Zanjero
Sam P/Great Hunter under in supers.
.......Hard Spun
.......that is a grey gelding, Imawildandcrazyguy, out of Frosty Cupcake...that made my day today! Thank you TG for that buried fig tipoff on the horse!!!
TGJB,
Please expedite the Red Board Room for review of this Derby. And I would like your readers to know that I do go over your gratis day after Prep figures (red board room) to handicap the hardest of all races to cash. You\'re figures did point the way for me. I didn\'t know you liked Wild and Crazy guy. He was the horse that rang the bell.
SoCalMan2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> .......that is a grey gelding, Imawildandcrazyguy,
> out of Frosty Cupcake...that made my day today!
> Thank you TG for that buried fig tipoff on the
> horse!!!
no todd, pre-race drug test to thank. the guys a lousy cheating bum who should win a lot of derbys with all the money behind him.
TAP has a notorious pattern with young horses. They start out fast. The others are legit trainers and bring theirs along. Pletcher is now Nada for 19. I really thought the key was the drug test, but interestingly TGJB did not seem to be in accord with how monumental I felt it was. Maybe he didnt\' factor the Pletchers solely upon his figures. Thats why I\'m on pins and needles to see the Red Board.
Score one for the Good Guys. Even if Pletcher could juice those top two were beyond anything he could inject.
CtC
cubfan0316 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> no todd, pre-race drug test to thank. the guys a
> lousy cheating bum who should win a lot of derbys
> with all the money behind him.
I will save you the pins and needles on Wild and Crazy guy (although I do not recall you being all aglow about him before the race).
Jerry pointed out that he has a pattern of inching foward to new tops and reacting. He noted that he ran a buried new top in the Lousiana Derby and did not react so terribly in the Florida Derby and that he should run a new top. Jerry said that this would be too slow. But, the way I saw it, if he ran a new top off the Lousiana Derby, you are looking at a horse as fast as Nobiz and three times the odds (and I was expecting a lot longer).
I liked him a lot based on his sheet (made him my longshot special before the race), because his lousiana Derby race was only a smidge better than his 2 yo top, and I thought you could expect him to improve on that more. I think Friedman calls this the strong conditioning move. he has a theory where he loves when a 3 yo comes back and in one or two races comes back to his two year old top or even better just makes a tiny improvement, he views that tiny improvement as a tip off to a bigger move. If the horse moves too much, then you factor that he already got his early 3 yo growth spurt and that is it, but with the small move, there is more to come. Imawildandcrazyguy fits that perfectly. I just threw out his Florida Derby. Here is what I cannot figure. That horse was 37-1 in the FLorida Derby against 8 opponents and finished 6th (I bet him underneath that day too). He comes back into the Derby against 19 opponents off a 6th place finish and somehow his odds go down to 29-1!!!! How on earth does that happen? I was really expecting him to be longer.
SoCalMan2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I will save you the pins and needles on Wild and
> Crazy guy (although I do not recall you being all
> aglow about him before the race).
lol, you don\'t think I liked Awildandcrazyguy? Well, you\'re entitled I suppose.
Truth be told I was sweating bullets when I saw him coming, because I did not have him in third. If he had been able to put Curlin away I would only have had Perfecta and Win money. Curlin held me safe though and I cashed the most lucrative Derby of my career.
That was as thorough a pounding as has ever been inflicted upon fellow handicappers. No prisoners were taken. Even with the wasteful \"just in case\" dollars upon Teufle. (I did not anticipate Hard Spun going. After the hot work I really thought he\'d rate. Additionally, Teufle came unglued pre race...he never would have held on regardless. I was off with him.) Still if Wild gets third and/or the Seas don\'t part for Street Sense its a cash but just an ordinary cash. The Horse God\'s can be very fickle.
Where I excelled was in the analysis of the field generally and the Pletcher horses in particular. As well as hitting the nail on the head with the drug testing issue. Sometimes I literally scare myself. (Jerry is gonna hate this post and I have commented approaching too often upon this board, but I do love this race so. In my defense I do consult his numbers when I\'m conflicted and I believe that I interpret them better than perhaps all but the host himself. Never too proud to learn, I have learned more from this site than anything else I have been exposed to in the last 15 years or so.)
Regarding Wildguy, all I can point to is this field rundown. Tell me I wasn\'t all over this race, including the statement that with Scat Daddy (3rd Choice) you backed a sprinter:
http://www.thorograph.com/phorum/read.php?1,34772,34772#msg-34772
You had Crazy as one of several that could clunk up. He was my pre-race longshot special here
http://www.thorograph.com/phorum/read.php?1,34822,34855#msg-34855
Although I still would have been a healthy winner on the day off the $101.80 exacta, It was the superfectas that turbo-charged me and were where the transcendental-type action was.
Although I loved Scat Daddy at 44-1 in Pool 1, Street Sense looked too good to me. I am very pleased with the future bet even though it lost. I got three months of enjoyment out of it and 44-1 on the Derby 3rd choice. Well worth the $200. I thought that Street Sense was just the fastest horse and did not have any of the question marks a lot of the others had. I ended up using Hard Spun a bunch (he was my third selection) because I really thought he would get a great trip and had an excellent chance to stick around for a piece. I was rooting for Crazyguy to get up for third as I would have also had a lot of nice trifectas to go with my superfectas. I only used Curlin defensively. If SD, CQ, or AGS had been in the third spot instead of Curlin, I would have had the super 3 times and it would have paid more than it did with Curlin running in.
Anyway, it seemed like quite a successful day for the board as a lot of people were having fun pounding a super solid 5-1 shot who ran like he was 8-5.
Chuckles_the_Clown2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> SoCalMan2 Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > I will save you the pins and needles on Wild
> and
> > Crazy guy (although I do not recall you being
> all
> > aglow about him before the race).
>
>
>
> lol, you don\'t think I liked Awildandcrazyguy?
> Well, you\'re entitled I suppose.
>
> Truth be told I was sweating bullets when I saw
> him coming, because I did not have him in third.
> If he had been able to put Curlin away I would
> only have had Perfecta and Win money. Curlin held
> me safe though and I cashed the most lucrative
> Derby of my career.
>
> That was as thorough a pounding as has ever been
> inflicted upon fellow handicappers. No prisoners
> were taken. Even with the wasteful \"just in case\"
> dollars upon Teufle. (I did not anticipate Hard
> Spun going. After the hot work I really thought
> he\'d rate. Additionally, Teufle came unglued pre
> race...he never would have held on regardless. I
> was off with him.) Still if Wild gets third and/or
> the Seas don\'t part for Street Sense its a cash
> but just an ordinary cash. The Horse God\'s can be
> very fickle.
>
> Where I excelled was in the analysis of the field
> generally and the Pletcher horses in particular.
> As well as hitting the nail on the head with the
> drug testing issue. Sometimes I literally scare
> myself. (Jerry is gonna hate this post and I have
> commented approaching too often upon this board,
> but I do love this race so. In my defense I do
> consult his numbers when I\'m conflicted and I
> believe that I interpret them better than perhaps
> all but the host himself. Never too proud to
> learn, I have learned more from this site than
> anything else I have been exposed to in the last
> 15 years or so.)
>
> Regarding Wildguy, all I can point to is this
> field rundown. Tell me I wasn\'t all over this
> race, including the statement that with Scat Daddy
> (3rd Choice) you backed a sprinter:
>
> http://www.thorograph.com/phorum/read.php?1,34772,
> 34772#msg-34772
>TAP has a notorious pattern with young horses. They start out fast. The others are legit trainers and bring theirs along.<
I don\'t know that I really agree with this.
I\'ve been a supporter of Pletcher. I think he gets far and away the best stock, but he does run them on whichever circuit their natural abilities will allow them to perform well at. That\'s an incremental skill over and above just having dozens of dynamite horses.
Yes, he usually brings them out sharp enough to compete, but most continue developing slowly throughout the season. Ocasionally one of the really good ones will explode forward even after coming out with a win or good performance. That\'s one reason he wins so often in spots where it doesn\'t look so obvious he has the best horse (and why the public bets him so heavily). His horses do move forward and fire their best shot more often than for most other trainers. They just move forward more slowly than for those trainers that bring them out very short.
He does seem to have a bit of trouble getting his horses to peak for either the Derby or BC though. (hmmmn) I thought he handled his 3YOs really well this year, but I didn\'t see any peaks yesterday.
I consider getting a horse to peak on the right day to be a real test of trainer skill.
At this point, Nafzger is looking like he\'s in Charlie Whittingham\'s class.
well, all i can say is that was a huge super with the trifecta finishers essentially being 1st, 4th and 2nd choices. Absolutely huge.
The value of course, was in eliminating the Pletcher combinations and I did so to the fourth spot on the ticket and had the confidence to not include Scat or AGS for fourth. What was saved in combinations was invested in repeat tickets. The perfecta was fair, the trifecta honest and the super incredible. I believe the Super Value was related to being \"Pletcherless\".
Wheres MO when you want to talk about insanity?
lol
Banging his head against a wall for not having a $100 cold exacta?
LOL
Not really. I posted that I was going to pass the race and I did, but logistics played a roll.
The rare occassion where I lay down a bet, I wait until the last 2 minutes before post time. I won\'t bet the Derby on Friday. I had a plane to catch back home after leading the All-Star Buglers through opening day at Suffolk Downs. We were such a hit there that the Derby was really an after thought.(Every cloud has a silver lining). I got to the airport and saw the replay and was glad I had the right horse (s) at least. I was sure he\'d be the fav, but he did pay more than he should have. Had I been at the track a bit longer, I might have bet. Might not. I have seen the odds change on the far turn too many times. I had never cashed a ticket on any horse ridden by Calvin, so why take 9-2 in a 20 horse field?
I sincerely congratulate all the connections, especially Calvin Borel. He deserved this win. It just goes to show that hard work sure does payoff regardless of where you are from or what level of education you have. He\'s a lot richer than most of us and you can take that to the bank. God bless him!
In my opinion, the win price was square, exacta was huge, the tri was paltry. The super was impossible to consider. Hindsight is 20-20.
One thing for sure, I still have yet to cash a ticket on a horse ridden by Calvin. LOL.
Congrats on fine handicapping. You were out ahead of the curve. Street Sense was the top pick of those involved in the business, but you were on record first.
I agree the Calvin Bo_Rail human interest story was a part of the allure. I\'ve never seen a jockey genuinely celebrate the way he did after the race. The things he said were so humble and sincere you have to be happy for him.
I had not really noticed him before, but I\'m not much of a jockey bettor. I reviewed the B.C. Juvenile very closely and then lo and behold he runs the La Troienne with the same B.C. Juvenile rail skim and gets interviewed by ESPN. Then, BoRail pronounces the track just like B.C. day. Thats all it took for me, with the track drying that cinched it and I sent 98% of it in with Street Sense on top.
Now its time to think about the next one, but the Derby belongs to BoRail.
MO Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Banging his head against a wall for not having a
> $100 cold exacta?
>
> LOL
>
> Not really. I posted that I was going to pass the
> race and I did, but logistics played a roll.
>
> The rare occassion where I lay down a bet, I wait
> until the last 2 minutes before post time. I won\'t
> bet the Derby on Friday. I had a plane to catch
> back home after leading the All-Star Buglers
> through opening day at Suffolk Downs. We were such
> a hit there that the Derby was really an after
> thought.(Every cloud has a silver lining). I got
> to the airport and saw the replay and was glad I
> had the right horse (s) at least. I was sure he\'d
> be the fav, but he did pay more than he should
> have. Had I been at the track a bit longer, I
> might have bet. Might not. I have seen the odds
> change on the far turn too many times. I had never
> cashed a ticket on any horse ridden by Calvin, so
> why take 9-2 in a 20 horse field?
>
> I sincerely congratulate all the connections,
> especially Calvin Borel. He deserved this win. It
> just goes to show that hard work sure does payoff
> regardless of where you are from or what level of
> education you have. He\'s a lot richer than most of
> us and you can take that to the bank. God bless
> him!
>
> In my opinion, the win price was square, exacta
> was huge, the tri was paltry. The super was
> impossible to consider. Hindsight is 20-20.
>
> One thing for sure, I still have yet to cash a
> ticket on a horse ridden by Calvin. LOL.
For the record I posted on April 29 that SS was the key, which predates MO,I believe. Correct me if I am wrong.
Curlin killed my Superfecta and Trifecta but the Win ticket on SS and Exacta with HS were more than enough to make it a great day.
http://www.thorograph.com/phorum/read.php?1,34263,34269#msg-34269
dpatent Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> For the record I posted on April 29 that SS was
> the key, which predates MO,I believe. Correct me
> if I am wrong.
>
> Curlin killed my Superfecta and Trifecta but the
> Win ticket on SS and Exacta with HS were more than
> enough to make it a great day.
How about we split this pot:
Re: Derby views from a Ragozin user (509 Views)
Posted by: MO (IP Logged)
Date: April 29, 2007 05:38PM
Mike,
SS\'s BG was an improvement (vast?) because of his race last year at Kee. Carl is on record saying polytrack is not SS\'s best surface, yet his figure this year was about 3 points better than last year.
You have to look at the BCJ as a bit flukey. 10 legnth win over horses now everyone and his mother are gushing over. Why was it flukey? That\'s the question. The answer ( I think....) is that polytrack moves this horse up. He doesn\'t like it and when he gets on the CD dirt, he\'s like a kid in a candy store - an American pot smoker in Amsterdam - a sex maniac in Las Vegas (add your own analogy here_____________)
This horse, barring any of the usual BS (I have forewarned you all about)is a friggin mortal lock to win. He will pair or top his negative 2.
Hey forgot about that post. Jet lag...........
Thanks. For some reason I missed that in my search of MO\'s posts.
David-- I feel compelled to point out that given my situation with the seminar, I can\'t go on record early.
I did go on record a different way in Pool 3. At 5:00 Eastern that Sunday SS was sitting at 8-1 (and even that would have been by far the shortest future book price I ever took-- too many issues of injuries, sick, post etc.). When I looked in the paper, it said pools closed at 6:00 Eastern, so I figured it couldn\'t change much. I ran up to the Winner\'s Circle OTB (no surcharge) and made a good sized bet, only to find later that pools closed 6:00 Pacific, and SS got knocked down to 6.7-1 (and no, I didn\'t bet THAT much). I would not have taken that price that far out, but it turned out okay.
Later I made smaller bets offshore on HS and AGS at 17-1 each, so I was effectively getting 3-1 on the three of them as an entry. I have to say, I don\'t think I\'ve ever been more relaxed watching a Derby.
Jerry -- I am glad that you hit the race hard too. This is probably the first time that I have ever placed a Win bet on the Derby favorite since Easy Goer -- no Sheets for me back then and I was young and foolish.
The only other time I can recall betting on a Triple Crown race favorite was Afleet Alex when I thought he should have been 3:5 in the Belmont and he went off around 6:5.
It always seems easy after the fact when you win, but 9:2 was just a monster overlay given the tangibles (numbers, pattern) and intangibles (trainer, likely trip, workouts, etc.).
I\'ll go on record right now as saying that SS wins the Preakness but I don\'t think I\'ll have a dime on the race.
3-1 on the race Jerry that sounds so familiar.
I was very fortunate to run into a very kind Jolly Irishman who does a little racing TV at a slamdown party on Friday night.
I asked him who he liked and he replied, \"Street Sense is a mortal lock\". I said to him later in the evening, You seem pretty confident about Street Sense, he replied, \"This field can\'t even warm this horse up\".
I played him pretty big to win, bet Zanjero to win and place fairly solid, and used both as Tri Keys that were complete blanks.
Net, Net I got back 3-1.
PS-He said the Party was the best one he had ever been too.