Cowtown Cat - all kinds of talent here. '4.5' second out 2 yr old. paired the top first out this year, bounced on short rest, then got back to the top in the Gotham with better spacing. Broke through to the '2' lvl on the stretch out last, and returns in the Derby on four weeks rest.
Distance the issue here; it's not the best breeding to get the 10f. I like way CC won the 9f Ill Derby though. Drew perfectly here, and gets Jara. Should break running, which will be an advantage if the track does come up muddy.
Looking for another move forward from Cowtown Cat, and a top three finish at 20-1.
Good luck everybody.
1 Sedgefield ~ Live at a long price. Love the conditioning race over the turf last time out. He ran a very professional and athletic race to break his maiden from the one hole. Of course he did it against bums, but he has moved forward, and never really looked comfortable on the turf. His second place finish to Hard Spun was a huge race, getting a fig as good as Nobiz's top. If he runs as well on Dirt as he has on poly they will need to replace the lights on the tote board after the race.
2 Curlin ~ I think a lot of people are over thinking this horse. He\'s the only one who has strung together really good races. It doesn\'t look like they have gotten to the bottom of him yet either. He\'s the most likely winner and I think in June we are going to be comparing him to some big names from 20-30 years ago.
3 Zanjero ~ Ran some solid numbers last year, and improved this year. Still at his best a bit slow, and will have trouble finding a clear path coming from pretty far back.
4 Storm in May ~ Too slow, not a 10f pedigree, don\'t see him making the improvement needed to be competitive.
5 Imawildandcrazyguy ~ He ran a pretty big number as a two year old, and he\'s improved a little. A new top is somewhat possible and it could be enough to get a check. Interesting longshot at a big price.
6 Cowtown Cat ~ Ran a solid number last time out, but it was a pretty big jump up. I think that was his derby and he\'ll bounce off it.
7 Street Sense ~ I\'m not sure that he\'s gotten enough out of the Tampa race and the slow paced Blue Grass to be at his best. On talent, connections and love of the track I\'ll play him underneath.
8 Hard Spun ~ He's done everything right so far, including getting out of Arkansas when Curlin showed up. I'm not sure if he's ready to run the race of his life off a six week layoff and goofy training pattern. Including, but not on top
9 Liquidity ~ One of the most talented horses in the field, but has turned into a head case the past couple races. Owner and trainer seem to be almost unable to contain themselves when they talk about him. I think they have figured him out and he's going to run the race of his life. Reports from Haskins in Kentucky say he's looking at training very impressively.
10 Teuflesberg ~ Nice horse, but he looked spent after 9f in the Blue Grass. He's a little light on the numbers and I can't see him running a new top trying to hold off some of the quality horses that will be making runs at him early and often.
11 Bwana Bull ~ I can't blame them for taking a shot, but he's really too slow to be competitive.
12 Nobiz Like Shobiz ~ The value of the race is playing him off the board. He ran some bang up races as a two year old, and in three starts this year has yet to improve. He also is just as green as he was then, and seems to be even less cooperative with his rider during the race. He'll probably win some nice races down the road, but the pattern suggests his is likely to go south soon.
13 Sam P. ~ Didn't really run that fast as a two year old and has only developed a little and would need a big top to even get close.
14 Scat Daddy ~ Has done everything right so and could have a better form line coming in. Ran a huge number in the champagne as a two year old, and quickly got back to that number this year before running a small top last time. He has the potential on pedigree to improve another 1-1.5 points and even a pair up will put him in the picture at the end.
15 Tiago ~ Ran a huge come from behind race in the Santa Anita Derby. It was a couple point top and leaves him slower than too many of these.
16 Circular Quay ~ Ran a huge -1 in the Louisiana Derby, and the 8 weeks off probably gives him a better chance of running back to it. As good as it was it wasn't a huge move up based on his 2yo numbers. He will have a hard time working out a trip from the 16 hole and he's the size of a large dog, and getting bounced around would really compromise him. I'll play him on top because of the figs, rest, and solid connections.
17 Stormello ~ Ran some solid races against Scat Daddy, but the connections and the horse seem to be on different pages on his running style. Can't see him getting a decent trip and running a new top and he'd need both to have a shot.
18 Any Given Saturday ~ Ran a fast 2yo race, and was able to run a new top in his second race this year (good sign). The last race was a small backward move, and looked like a conditioning race. I expect a big run from him, but the post position will keep him off the top of my tickets.
19 Dominican ~ I'm not getting all the love for this guy. He won the Blue Grass in probably the paced derby prep race ever. He's got a quick turn of foot, but his pedigree makes me think it will be a little duller going 10f. Three races in a 6 week span, and a poor post won't help.
20 Great Hunter ~ I was a huge fan of his dad and wish I could back him here, but his only decent fig came on the quirky Breeders Cup day. Draw a line though that and he's one of the slowest horses in the race. Even the owner likes his other horse (Liquidity) better.
Short version....
Nobiz off the board
Curlin IS a monster
Scat Daddy 2nd most likely winner
Sedge & Liquidity live at big prices
CQ scary talent, on top defensively
SS, AGS, HS filling out the tri
Zanjero & Imawildandcrazyguy possible savers with Curlin on top.
I'll play a one spread ticket (1,2,9,14,16/ +7,8,18/same), and a series of higher $ tickets keying Curlin with 1,9,14.
Good luck everyone!
I\'ve read rave opinions of Liquidity too. However, I can\'t get away from the fact that every single one of his races, excluding his maiden 6 furlong score is a fade and that today he must run the farthest distance of his life.
I do like his breeding, but Rahy was a miler is my recollection and if not, this horse is showing a lack of late energy regardless.
elkurzhal Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> 1 Sedgefield ~ Live at a long price. Love the
> conditioning race over the turf last time out. He
> ran a very professional and athletic race to break
> his maiden from the one hole. Of course he did it
> against bums, but he has moved forward, and never
> really looked comfortable on the turf. His second
> place finish to Hard Spun was a huge race, getting
> a fig as good as Nobiz's top. If he runs as well
> on Dirt as he has on poly they will need to
> replace the lights on the tote board after the
> race.
> 2 Curlin ~ I think a lot of people are over
> thinking this horse. He\'s the only one who has
> strung together really good races. It doesn\'t
> look like they have gotten to the bottom of him
> yet either. He\'s the most likely winner and I
> think in June we are going to be comparing him to
> some big names from 20-30 years ago.
> 3 Zanjero ~ Ran some solid numbers last year, and
> improved this year. Still at his best a bit slow,
> and will have trouble finding a clear path coming
> from pretty far back.
> 4 Storm in May ~ Too slow, not a 10f pedigree,
> don\'t see him making the improvement needed to be
> competitive.
> 5 Imawildandcrazyguy ~ He ran a pretty big number
> as a two year old, and he\'s improved a little. A
> new top is somewhat possible and it could be
> enough to get a check. Interesting longshot at a
> big price.
> 6 Cowtown Cat ~ Ran a solid number last time out,
> but it was a pretty big jump up. I think that was
> his derby and he\'ll bounce off it.
> 7 Street Sense ~ I\'m not sure that he\'s gotten
> enough out of the Tampa race and the slow paced
> Blue Grass to be at his best. On talent,
> connections and love of the track I\'ll play him
> underneath.
> 8 Hard Spun ~ He's done everything right so far,
> including getting out of Arkansas when Curlin
> showed up. I'm not sure if he's ready to run the
> race of his life off a six week layoff and goofy
> training pattern. Including, but not on top
> 9 Liquidity ~ One of the most talented horses in
> the field, but has turned into a head case the
> past couple races. Owner and trainer seem to be
> almost unable to contain themselves when they talk
> about him. I think they have figured him out and
> he's going to run the race of his life. Reports
> from Haskins in Kentucky say he's looking at
> training very impressively.
> 10 Teuflesberg ~ Nice horse, but he looked spent
> after 9f in the Blue Grass. He's a little light
> on the numbers and I can't see him running a new
> top trying to hold off some of the quality horses
> that will be making runs at him early and often.
> 11 Bwana Bull ~ I can't blame them for taking a
> shot, but he's really too slow to be competitive.
> 12 Nobiz Like Shobiz ~ The value of the race is
> playing him off the board. He ran some bang up
> races as a two year old, and in three starts this
> year has yet to improve. He also is just as green
> as he was then, and seems to be even less
> cooperative with his rider during the race.
> He'll probably win some nice races down the road,
> but the pattern suggests his is likely to go south
> soon.
> 13 Sam P. ~ Didn't really run that fast as a two
> year old and has only developed a little and would
> need a big top to even get close.
> 14 Scat Daddy ~ Has done everything right so and
> could have a better form line coming in. Ran a
> huge number in the champagne as a two year old,
> and quickly got back to that number this year
> before running a small top last time. He has the
> potential on pedigree to improve another 1-1.5
> points and even a pair up will put him in the
> picture at the end.
> 15 Tiago ~ Ran a huge come from behind race in the
> Santa Anita Derby. It was a couple point top and
> leaves him slower than too many of these.
> 16 Circular Quay ~ Ran a huge -1 in the Louisiana
> Derby, and the 8 weeks off probably gives him a
> better chance of running back to it. As good as
> it was it wasn't a huge move up based on his 2yo
> numbers. He will have a hard time working out a
> trip from the 16 hole and he's the size of a large
> dog, and getting bounced around would really
> compromise him. I'll play him on top because of
> the figs, rest, and solid connections.
> 17 Stormello ~ Ran some solid races against Scat
> Daddy, but the connections and the horse seem to
> be on different pages on his running style.
> Can't see him getting a decent trip and running a
> new top and he'd need both to have a shot.
> 18 Any Given Saturday ~ Ran a fast 2yo race, and
> was able to run a new top in his second race this
> year (good sign). The last race was a small
> backward move, and looked like a conditioning
> race. I expect a big run from him, but the post
> position will keep him off the top of my tickets.
> 19 Dominican ~ I'm not getting all the love for
> this guy. He won the Blue Grass in probably the
> paced derby prep race ever. He's got a quick
> turn of foot, but his pedigree makes me think it
> will be a little duller going 10f. Three races in
> a 6 week span, and a poor post won't help.
> 20 Great Hunter ~ I was a huge fan of his dad and
> wish I could back him here, but his only decent
> fig came on the quirky Breeders Cup day. Draw a
> line though that and he's one of the slowest
> horses in the race. Even the owner likes his
> other horse (Liquidity) better.
>
> Short version....
> Nobiz off the board
> Curlin IS a monster
> Scat Daddy 2nd most likely winner
> Sedge & Liquidity live at big prices
> CQ scary talent, on top defensively
> SS, AGS, HS filling out the tri
> Zanjero & Imawildandcrazyguy possible savers with
> Curlin on top.
>
> I'll play a one spread ticket (1,2,9,14,16/
> +7,8,18/same), and a series of higher $ tickets
> keying Curlin with 1,9,14.
>
> Good luck everyone!