little interest if this is sloppy, but ....
trip estimates:
Cash Included - 1w/1w
High Heels - 1w/2w
Octave - 1w/3w
Cotton Blossom - 2w/3w
DoA - 2w/2w
R to R - 4w/4w
as for performance:
Cash Included - failed in three tries to break through 2 yr old top.
High Heels - I\'m betting on a bounce.
Octave - very nice jump in the BC. nice pair first out. toss the rough trip poly. half sis by Belong To Me excelled going long. ready to jump to the \'2\' to \'3\' lvl.
Cotton Blossom - very nice BC run. concerned that she didn\'t develop much second out this year. is she stuck at the \'5\' level, or was the 3 weeks rest last not enough? tough call.
DoA - another very tough call for me. has the talent and the breeding, and connections have her ready to run big. would like her a lot more if there were less speed types involved.
R to R - fast last two, think there is another small forward move coming. \'0\'.
if Gomez works out the trip - good-bye. R2R has been averaging 4w in much smaller fields though, and drew wide in the 14 horse field. how about Octave? she ran along the rail for four straight races, and has drawn well. Cotton Blossom? nice post, but she often runs wide. if I\'m right on my trip analysis, R2R is the likely winner, but offers little value at odds on. Octave offers the best value, and I don\'t have a confident read on CB or DoA.
it\'s Octave as the key, with R2R the other use.
sounds right on to me . i\'ve tried to make a case for anyone to beat rags to riches in the oaks , but imo - she\'s just too tough . the chances for an upset would increase if it comes up wet - though her off track sire profile isn\'t bad ...
marcus Wrote:
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> sounds right on to me . i\'ve tried to make a case
> for anyone to beat rags to riches in the oaks ,
> but she\'s just too tough . the chances for an
> upset would increase a little if it comes up wet -
> though her off track sire profile isn\'t bad ...
I remember four or five AP Indy\'s taking races over a sloppy Oaks day track a few years ago. R to R has a few slop influences on the bottom of her pedigree as well. It\'s just going to come down to how low the odds go ....
Marcus:
How about a Baffert/Espinosa pop in the slop in the Oaks tomorrow?
When you see the way Baffert put this one through her morning work after her
Sunland victory it is easy to see why Poly is a necessity out in SoCal.
originally i was shopping a couple explosive line angles around myself - there are a few in here incl both ml 50-1 shots that look interesting in that regard . the off track breeding and strong connections angle is there for alot of these and can\'t be ignored . \'rags would have a good shot to win the derby if had entered in the race and now is going against slower horses in the oaks . i\'ve never seen a fillie pattern quite like it and fast too , she ran a 10 in june as a 2 yo ...
\"at least even money to win\" was more like it. good call Jerry on the easiest of 3/2 winners.
decent $30 exacta with Octave, but wasted money with anything but R2R on top. she wins this race nine out of ten times.
glad you took a strong stand too Marcus. hope you bombed the Oaks/Derby double.
Passed the race. High Heels on rail 2nd turn.