Non-contenders (Less than 1% chance each, No price good enough to bet)
===============
#2 Zanjero 30/1 ML
#4 Storm in May 30/1 ML
#5 Imawildandcrazyguy 50/1 ML
#11 Bwana Bull 50/1 ML
#15 Tiago 15/1 ML
#19 Dominican 20/1 ML
Outsiders (3-5% chance each, would need 30-1 or more to bet)
==========
#1 Sedgefield 50/1 ML (Liked his Lanesend pace, Might like extra distance)
#9 Liquidity 30/1 ML (Liked his LA Derby, if he can get up front with a slow pace, might be able to hang on for a superfecta ticket)
#10 Teuflesberg 30/1 ML (Has some speed, but not sure about the distance here)
#13 Sam P. 20/1 ML (Gonna need a step forward but like him better than Tiago)
#20 Great Hunter 15/1 (I kind of like him and if he could of gotten a better post, I would of thrown him in the contenders group below. That\'s a long way out there and favorite running style might find him 5-7 wide around the turns. Bad draw)
Contenders (8-10% chance each, would need 15-1 or more to bet).
========
#2 Curlin 7/2 ML (Overrated, Ragged pace in Ark Derby and Rebel, not proven much yet)
#6 Cowtown Cat 20/1 ML (Decent Ill Derby. Don\'t forget War Emblem. Like his workouts too)
#12 Nobiz Like Showbiz 8/1 ML (Nice Wood but they were dragging there at the end, could factor here though with good pace setup)
#14 Scat Daddy 10/1 ML (Benefited from pace in Fountain of Youth, could do the same here)
#16 Circular Quay 8/1 ML (Not a bad looking horse but again, will need perfect pace to have a good shot at winning, and even then there are others with similar running styles he\'ll have to battle with if it sets up that way
#18 Any Given Saturday 12/1 ML (Ditto)
Major Players (12-15% chance, Would still want atleast 10-1 to bet)
==============
#7 Street Sense 4/1 ML (Looks ready for a big effort here 3rd off layoff.. Very impressed what he did in Tampa vs Any Given Saturday as well as coming off the slow pace in on the poly at Keeneland. Major contender but likely to be bet and offers no value in a 20-horse race full of pitfalls)
#8 Hard Spun 15/1 ML (Could be a potential freakhorse. Love the Lanesend and Lecomte races.. Very very impressive numbers. Might need a favorable setup but he\'s the speed in this race and the speed is always live to be a factor, even at 10f. Distance breeding is pretty encouraging to make it all the way. If he can rate, he\'ll be there at the end)
#17 Stormello 30/1 ML (Ahhh.. My big sleeper. Absolutely AWESOME Fountain of Youth race.. Love every bit of it.. Set some wild fractions and just got caught at the wire by Scat Daddy. Florida Derby effort was to be expected. The 5 weeks off here is PERFECT IMO. Norfolk G2 back in October was impressive as well and shows the horse has lots of talent. Set that blistering pace in the BC Juvenile at Churchill as well. Has two 58.1 works under his belt.. Lots of speed and has demonstrated abililty to use it tactically. Desormeaux knows what this is all about and he\'s got another live big price under him. Would of liked a better post but he has the speed to get out there and get a good spot for the turn).
Going to be playing a win ticket certaintly on Stormello, perhaps Hard Spun if he can keep the price on him.
$2 Exacta ticket 7,8,17 w/ 2,6,7,8,12,14,16,17,18 ($48)
$2 Exacta ticket 2,6,7,8,12,14,16,17,18 w/ 7,8,17 ($48)
I\'ll figure out some Tri combination later maybe, but could get expensive in the Derby and I\'m not looking to blow that much this year ;).
Alright, bash away!! :-D
The problem I have with Stormello is the trainer\'s actions defy your analysis. He appears to be the main speed, and the logical thing to do with him is go & try to slow things down up front. Instead, the trainer says all week that he\'s going to rate and then to confirm his desires, chooses post 17 instead of 2 or 1. Also, DRF clockers report had a negative view of his adaptation to the track.
Now, I can\'t resist Hard Spun. If his 57 & change workout was slow early, fast late, I\'d have no problem other than I think he\'s overrated. However, the fact that the 5th f took over 13 seconds & he was coming to a crawl in his run out makes me wonder how, in spite of his breeding, he\'s going to get the 1 1/4 against this class of horses.
Don\'t back off because until they cross the finish line all opinions are just as good as the next guy\'s. I\'m just showing the red flags that Stormello and hard Spun are sending me.
Illman\'s a fan of Stormello\'s FOY too, but not me. He ran a courageous race at a blistering clip, but there was nothing left at the end. He was beaten a nose becuase the race was 1 1/8. Scat Daddy closed his last 1/8th in that race in 12.8, while Stormello closed in something like 13.8. Put another 1/8 in there, and Stormello is beaten 10 lengths.
ajkreider Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Illman\'s a fan of Stormello\'s FOY too, but not me.
> He ran a courageous race at a blistering clip,
> but there was nothing left at the end. He was
> beaten a nose becuase the race was 1 1/8. Scat
> Daddy closed his last 1/8th in that race in 12.8,
> while Stormello closed in something like 13.8.
> Put another 1/8 in there, and Stormello is beaten
> 10 lengths.
That\'d be true if the derby fractions are :46, 1:09.4, 1:35.1.. If he can be out near the lead with a :46.4, 1:11, 1:37, I think he might have enough left to get there. This is the first Derby I can remember in a while where there weren\'t atleast 4 or 5 bonafide front running speedballs who would be shooting for the lead and I would not be surprised if they cross 6f 1:12.
I too have a hunch Stormello will run good Saturday. He\'ll be on all my ticktes, mostly underneath Street Sense...One thing\'s for sure...he\'s a gutsy son of a gun which can\'t be said about half of these. His Hollywood Futurity and FOY were \"Lay your body down\" efforts...
My co-worker, the single-luckiest guy I know (who oince hit a $72,000 progressive video poker jackpot on a cruise ship and who\'s hit the Derby trifecta five out of the last six years) keeps touting Sam P...I HATE Sam P...Why is Sam P a play? If I miss the tri and super because of Sam P I\'ll go ballistic. So I guess I\'ll have to just include the pig....
He did run those fractions (or close to it) in the Florida Derby and was passed by three horses. It\'s worth remembering that Stormello also had Nobiz making another run at him at the wire in the FOY.
If they go 6F in 1:12, Stormello will have Street Sense, Nobiz, and Scat Daddy right on his flank, and he\'s shown no evidence that he\'s be able to hold off horses of that caliber. (And that\'s leaving out everyone else).
So here\'s the question: What makes you think he can get 1 1/4 in a derby-winning time, given that he hasn\'t run a winning time at 1 1/8 this year while on the lead?
At best, he\'s a play on the bottom of exotics, though starting from so far out, I\'m inclined to toss him altogether.
I liked Stormello\'s race in the FOY enough to play him back in the FD, but in hindsight, I believe I screwed up the analysis of the FOY. The pace was quick, but I believe inside speed was a bit of an advantage that day. I think it more or less offset the fact that he was used hard on the lead. I believe Scat Daddy, who I originally thought had a good pace set up to run at (which he did) actually ran quite well that day because of both the ground loss and because he was on the worse part of the track.
I now think there is little chance of Stormello getting 10F against this quality of horse unless someone tells all the jocks that CD installed Poly and they crawl early. ;-)
I think the FD was the more honestly run race in terms of measuring those Florida horses.
Don\'t know that Stormello will clear even if sent. Hard Spun, Tuffels,Cowtown and Curlin all have some early gas and the probable wet track may force a few to try for a good spot before the first turn. Tough race just made tougher by the wet track.
Mike
I don\'t think I\'ve ever been as confused about a Derby in 30 years. I usually have at least one strong positive or negative opinion on someone, but this year I can shoot holes in just about every contender and make a case for at least 10 of them. If it comes up very wet, I may just throw up my hands and surrender.
My specific thoughts are in the seminar, but I think this is one of the least confusing Derbies I\'ve seen, though rain increases the random factor. When you take into account the small number of new tops that are run in the Derby, a whole lot of horses can be eliminated for being too slow, and not just from the top spot. That doesn\'t mean we\'re into \"this horse will win\" territory-- it doesn\'t work like that. But the questions are pretty clear, and so are most of the answers, in terms of the percentages, and the right way(s) to play the race.
With this group, how do you project pace, trip/race shape with 20 horses going farther than ever before, carrying more weight, and many never having raced on the track or in the slop. \"Least confusing\" for you JB,mere mortals, another story.
There isn\'t one horse in here that has shown the ability to overcome a bad/tough trip and still win this race.Thats real tough, goes way beyond figs.
Mike
Some of the preparation issues are a problem for me.
I\'m not a believer in any of the hard rules that some people try to apply to the Derby. But I do think it has some unique characteristics because of the large field, noisey crowd, rough race development, 10F, and other things. So all else being equal I tend to prefer a more seasoned horse with experience in a big field, racing inside/between horses, on and off the pace, overcoming minor trouble etc...
A couple of the faster horses are lacking in that area.
A couple of them may be better/worse on Poly, but it\'s not clear to me.
I hadn\'t even noticed your insight about so few new tops being made, but I\'d have to ask if you think that can change now that there are more horses coming in with only 2 preps?
I sort of like 3rd off a layoff for producing peaks as long as I know the trainer doesn\'t usually try to bring them back at their best (which is unlikely for a Derby prospect anyway).
Yes, I think that the different preparations may increase the number of new tops-- or in some cases the chances of pairing tops. By the way, the question of horses with only 2 preps has been discussed only in terms of whether they have won. Even aside from the numbers they have run, look at the finish positions of those horses-- Closing Argument being the most recent example, Victory Gallop another. If Barbaro had run 12/31 instead of 1/1 last year, he would be yet another.
The reference to the low % of new tops is in the seminar.
The Florida Derby effort was very predictable with the big effort just 3 weeks before-hand and 2nd off a layoff. If he would of had those Fla Derby fractions in the FOY, I believe he would won by 3-4 lengths.
Stormello was an easy throwout for the Fla Derby.. Terrible timing to win that race after the FOY effort.
JB... I don\'t believe it is two starts that is the issue, it is how the two starts are viewed in the context of the horses lifetime PPs. For example, Barbaro was not out of training from before his debut race in October straight through the Preakness. He raced five times from 10/4 through 4/1 and worked out continually in between.
Similarly, Closing Argument raced 8/25/04, 9/4/04, 10/23/04, 11/13/04, 12/4/04, 2/5/05, and 4/16/05. Two preps, yeah, but clearly not out of training for EIGHT MONTHS leading to the Derby.
However, when you have horses with big breaks who were taken out of training like Circular Quay, Great Hunter, and Street Sense, it does mean something that they have only raced two times... especially the latter two; where it could be argued that their Blue Grass was a public one mile workout. If they win, so be it. But I\'ll be damned if I\'m taking the Derby favorite and possible 10-1 or less horse (CQ) when they are going to be asked to do something extraordinary with less than perfect preparation.
Victory Gallop is clearly the best argument for two preps. He was idle from November 1 to March 21... but in the BIG picture, wound up being a very fast horse who was sturdy enough to carry his form over to his 4 yo season. Here\'s another difference... you got 15-1 on VG in the Derby...do you want the same risk at 7-2 on Street Sense?
TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Yes, I think that the different preparations may
> increase the number of new tops-- or in some cases
> the chances of pairing tops. By the way, the
> question of horses with only 2 preps has been
> discussed only in terms of whether they have won.
> Even aside from the numbers they have run, look at
> the finish positions of those horses-- Closing
> Argument being the most recent example, Victory
> Gallop another. If Barbaro had run 12/31 instead
> of 1/1 last year, he would be yet another.
>
> The reference to the low % of new tops is in the
> seminar.
What\'s striking to me about this Derby is that so many lightly raced horses are in the mix. Add in the subjective reads on the (slow-paced) Blue Grass and the Wood only confuse things more.
I\'ll take a stab at Any given Sunday, Street Sense, Curlin and another to be named later (CQ, Hard Spun?) in a 4-horse box and pray for the best.
Stormello was clocked at 1:00.80 for five furlongs in company with one of Currin's maidens.
"It was perfect, the best work of his life," Currin said. "Not just the final time, but the way he did it. We had him behind the workhorse for a while, then he moved up inside, then he moved up outside, then he dropped back again. When Kent finally moved on him at the end, he just devoured the other horse.
"Kent got off the horse all pumped up and excited. There were some media people watching the work and Kent told them, 'He will win the Kentucky Derby.' They asked me how I felt, and I pointed at Kent and said 'My jockey said it all for me.'"
http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/racing-news/2007/May/02/Currin-continues-to-have-fun-with-Stormello.aspx
Perfect Drift Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> you got 15-1 on VG in the Derby...do
> you want the same risk at 7-2 on Street Sense?
Exactly. The answers to all questions raised the past few weeks are not in absolutes. There\'s a higher level of uncertainties compared to practically all other races... one thing that makes the derby The Derby. The Odds settle the issue.
Of course that works against you some years... Smarty Jones had a bunch of questions going in (\"hadn\'t beat anyone\", Pa bred, possible Oak freak, reaction to the neg 3, rookie connections, etc.); he seemed a toss at 4-1 but the rest is history.
With the posts drawn and possible off-track this year, anything under 10-1 looks vulnerable and only worthy of using as savers, imo.