What do you make of that work?
NC Tony
His last one going a mile was modest so he needed a little something more. But for a horse and rider that want to be up close this doesn\'t make him any more rateable if the early pace is really quick.
Which it could be.........
From the numbers I saw, it looked like he galloped out very slowly - ended up 6 furlongs in 1:11 and change. I never like it when a horse seemingly shuts it down during the gallop out after a fast work - says to me that he\'s working real hard to get the time.
NoCarolinaTony Wrote:
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> What do you make of that work?
>
> NC Tony
I find the work troubling.
Exactly what race are they preparing for?
This could be one brilliant horse though.
I think it says Keeneland can get especially glib when they soak her down. It also says the others working in 58 or 59 and change really aren\'t in the same league.
I\'d hope they\'d realize he was going very fast and for him to throttle down some, which he apparently did. Was Damage done? Maybe Tough call. This horse is/was one of the three though.
Michael D. Wrote:
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> NoCarolinaTony Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > What do you make of that work?
> >
> > NC Tony
>
>
> I find the work troubling.
>
> Exactly what race are they preparing for?
>
> This could be one brilliant horse though.
I try to get out, and they pull me back in.
18-1 on Pinnacle today for the wishful thinkers.
Can\'t ignore the perfect sheet. Maybe he\'s ready for that move forward.
Great piece today about Jones...
Jones story (http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2007/04/30/ap3666762.html)
The work was at CD.
But aptly put, the word WAS one of the three.
I do not believe horse and rider can handle the circumstances.
Chuckles,
The work was over the downs and not the (always trying to blame) Poly, with the next fastest number in 59.40.He was working together with Wildcat Bettie B and left this G1 winner in his wake.
NC Tony
NCTony so where do you stand on this one.
He went the opening quarter in 33. Not exactly how you get a horse ready to run a mile and quarter. Unless you have the kind of early speed and class to take it to em from the get go.
And hard Spun doesn\'t....
I was trying to include this horse in the race, but I think this work indicates we got a horse that when facing the 125,000 spectators or so, this one will get too worked up. I\'m surprised a vet Jockey of over 5000 wins like Pino let this happen.
As Billy Joel said Pressure!!
NC Tony
I think the horse got a little fresh sitting on a six week layoff. I didn\'t like that plan and its possible he put out a little too much energy when finally given a chance to run.
I blame TGraph for this and I\'m dead serious. They got into this \"Give them time\" nonsense with huge layoff efforts and its not the way to bring a quality horse to the big races. Its a way to bring ouchy horses in and I don\'t like it one bit.
Silver Charm Wrote:
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> The work was at CD.
>
> But aptly put, the word WAS one of the three.
>
> I do not believe horse and rider can handle the
> circumstances.
I know things have changed over the years but I learned the hard way a few years ago with Easy Goer.
Figuring the only horse who could beat was trained by Charlie Whittingham I studied their every move when they hit CD. Whitingham gave Sunday Silence four stiff works over four weeks.
Liking Silver Charm since his two year old year at Del Mar I followed his every move once he hit CD. Baffert used the Whittingham work blueprint. Same works, same distance, same spacing, same times, everything.
Larry Jones has given this horse 3 works in six weeks. Two slow, one too fast.
This horse is no Sunday Silence or Silver Charm and Larry Jones is not Charlie Whittingham
This is a very good horse and as far as great chance Derby horses go he was a bomb.
Taking an optimistic view, its possible the work took an edge off and he will sit more kindly off the pace. Now Teuf may not get in so its much harder to figure what that pace will be.
Very bad news today for detonating the derby.
Silver Charm Wrote:
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> I know things have changed over the years but I
> learned the hard way a few years ago with Easy
> Goer.
>
> Figuring the only horse who could beat was trained
> by Charlie Whittingham I studied their every move
> when they hit CD. Whitingham gave Sunday Silence
> four stiff works over four weeks.
>
> Liking Silver Charm since his two year old year at
> Del Mar I followed his every move once he hit CD.
> Baffert used the Whittingham work blueprint. Same
> works, same distance, same spacing, same times,
> everything.
>
> Larry Jones has given this horse 3 works in six
> weeks. Two slow, one too fast.
>
> This horse is no Sunday Silence or Silver Charm
> and Larry Jones is not Charlie Whittingham
he\'s toast, kinda of guarantees a sub 46 1/2, which bodes well for the big$
hate to harp on this, but hard spun does not have the perfect sheet, he\'s stuck, and let me tell you, 3 or 4 same numbers in a row, i say off, before the move
When I looked at his sheet I wondered if he was a Laurel freak who might not like CD. This workout dispels any such notion. This horse is scary. Very scary. And at the price (10 -15 to 1?) a must use.
RICH Wrote:
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> hate to harp on this, but hard spun does not have
> the perfect sheet, he\'s stuck, and let me tell
> you, 3 or 4 same numbers in a row, i say off,
> before the move
Maybe that depends on how you view poly. At 15-1 I\'ll take the view that the poly pair up is effectively a slight move forward.
Larry Jones at Churchill Downs:
5% trainer
9% tops
19% pair
32% off
40% X
Maybe, but a good horse changes figures pretty quick.
After some more research the work still bothers me, but will defer final opinion for a couple days. Man he did it easy.
This is gonna be one hell of a horse race.
big18741 Wrote:
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> Larry Jones at Churchill Downs:
>
> 5% trainer
>
> 9% tops
> 19% pair
> 32% off
> 40% X
Clarification on the locale of the move there beer drinker.CD was the site.
He\'s no Spend A Buck,so I say he\'s toast.
I\'d say your accurate regarding the horse.Disagree on the rider view.
There\'s good horses and trainers and then there\'s GOOD horses and trainers.
Layoff smayoff.Do you see CQ blowing his wad in the morn?Heck no! He\'s saving it
all for the afternoon of the 5th.
Circular Quay doesn\'t really have the speed to work brilliantly. That said, he does have back end sprint speed. He won a couple big 2YO sprints with the same style he exhibited in the B.C.Juvenile and the Louisiana Derby. The problem may be that is what he is a \"back end sprinter\"...a la Silver Wagon. He\'s gonna have to prove it Saturday and do so coming in off schedule. I\'ll take a position against him and his \"Sure thing\" distance breeding.
Good Luck
Flighted Iron Wrote:
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> There\'s good horses and trainers and then there\'s
> GOOD horses and trainers.
> Layoff smayoff.Do you see CQ blowing his wad in
> the morn?Heck no! He\'s saving it
> all for the afternoon of the 5th.
I typcially love when lightly raced horses show improved works, but I can\'t see how going 22 44+ 57.2 is the proper preparation for a horse trying to stretch out to 10F.
\"Hard Spun (five furlongs in 57.53): Certainly the most talked about work of the day. With jockey Mario Pino aboard, Hard Spun went in company with Wildcat Bettie B, a Grade 1-winning sprinter who like Hard Spun hails from the barn of trainer Larry Jones. The pair came away from the pole full of run and had the clockers\' watches smoking after posting opening fractions of 10.88 and 22.00. Hard Spun had already begun to separate himself from his mate approaching the quarter pole and continued to pour it on despite fanning wide and while under little urging from his rider. By the time Hard Spun reached the eighth pole in 44.52, Wildcat Bettie B had been left in the dust. But the early pace took its toll on Hard Spun and he needed 13.01 to complete his final furlong while under steady urging, then had little left for a gallop out that saw him pull up six furlongs in 1:12.97. As was the case with Liquidity and Cobalt Blue on Friday, fast times don\'t necessarily make the best works, and while Hard Spun seemed within himself at least for the opening half-mile, it remains to be seen what kind of toll this type of work will take on a young horse who must come back and run 1 1/4 miles\"
.....translation, put a fork in him.
Mike
Maybe he\'s sitting on an explosive effort and the work is exactly what was needed to take the edge off, so he doesn\'t do exactly what many people here think he\'s gonna do, run too hard early and burn himself out. He may be a much smarter horse than he\'s getting credit for, and same for Jones & Pino. Every move they have made so far may be just what Spunny needed, and they have done the horse right.
The various reasons given so far to toss him have been weak at best, especially considering the expected price. If he drew inside in the Southwest race and if he won by a wider margin at Turway he would be coming in with more Curlin-like hype and low odds.
This horse is a War Chant type. Damn nice animal but for the Kentucky Friggin\' Derby Nascar Race, I won\'t be using him on any tickets
22.00, 44.00, 57.53. No horse alive can be expexted to finish fast after splits like that. His workmate (a Gr1 4Y0) straggled home 10 lengths behind and still had the 2nd fastest work of the day.
Bob
Smarty\'s last work was 58 - that was the fastest I could find over the last few years for 5f. Funny Cide\'s was 58.4, Proud Citizen\'s 58.4. None quite as fast as Hard Spun\'s, though, FWIW...
reboundman Wrote:
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> Smarty\'s last work was 58 - that was the fastest I
> could find over the last few years for 5f. Funny
> Cide\'s was 58.4, Proud Citizen\'s 58.4. None quite
> as fast as Hard Spun\'s, though, FWIW...
Nice work. Noted those 3 all rated kindly just off the pace in the derby and finished strong, and all came back to run the top figs of their respective Preakness fields.
I\'m entertaining the possibility that Jones knows what he has and is just throwing everyone for a loop by saying stuff like \'we\'re definitely going to the Blue Grass\" or \"we\'re skipping the derby\" which annoys media people like Beyer who claims;
\"Hard Spun has the talent and should have been kept on a steady course to the Derby. But it\'s hard for me to like him with this management.\"
What exactly about his management is Beyer criticizing? The six week gap into the derby? The poly prep? The fast work?
Maybe Jones is making rookie mistakes, but maybe he\'s purposely trying to be unpredicatable during this whole pathetic media circus surrounding the 2 minutes in question, and he has a fresh fit horse for the TC. I\'ll keep my focus primarily on the figs & the odds.
I looked back over it, and Proud Citizen\'s last work was actually 58.8.
Some other notables to put things into perspective:
Lawyer Ron - 58.8
Birdstone - 58.4
Domestic Dispute - 58.6
Congaree - 58.2
Point Given - 58.2
Thanks for the research. That mitigates some of my concern, but I still don\'t like the idea that he went out so fast. 22 44+ looks more like a prep for a sprint or a horse you are trying to shorten up in distance. I wish I had some stats on things like this because in general I like improving speed in works among lightly raced horses. This is like some sort of outlier stat though because it\'s 10F, the horse is trying to stretch out, and the fractions were unusually fast.
Flushed,
Hard to see anyone playing cat & mouse w/a gold mine like the derby.
Looks to me like Pino blew the work(he doesn\'t work the horse unless Spun is stabled in Del/Md.)
This horse shows up for Derby, it won\'t be because of this work.
davidrex Wrote:
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> Looks to me like Pino blew the work
Then why did they work him with a Grade 1 sprinter? I\'ll take 15-1 that Jones is smartier than all his second guessers and I\'ll wait until this horse actually makes a mistake before dismissing him.
Fkach,
I also like the sudden improved early gas theory with young horses.Hard Spun does not fit that profile if you simply look at his PP lines.He worked slow and looked tired in his previous work( 1.42 from memory for mile) and then blistered 57 and change five days out under urging late.
I kinda agree with Andy Beyer on this colts lack of a definite plan coming in. As far as Larry Jones goes,you never know,but remember \"the dumber the farmer, the bigger the potato\"
Mike
Sure, must be why Jones said this:
"That wasn't what we were shooting for...We weren't trying to see who was the fastest, but I told (jockey) Mario (Pino) I just hope we can throttle him down on Derby day. It may have put a little more zip in him that what we needed.\"
This horse has had two mile races on dirt. By my figures he ran the same race both times. He got the mile in both in 1:38 & 4. More specifically, he came home in both races in 26 & 4. That does not augur well for a horse who\'s going to be asked to go a mile & a quarter.
Also, he\'s never even been in the gate against a top horse, let alone beat one. Curlin also has never beat a top horse but he looks like he could be any kind. If Curlin doesn\'t beat Hard Spun on Sat., the moon\'s a balloon.