The Kentucky Oaks is as prestigious as almost any race for fillies in the US,
and a win in that race (in addition to a win in the BC Juvie Fillies) can be
worth millions in terms of the value of a broodmare.
THAT BEING SAID, did anybody notice that ALL OTHER FILLIES in Pool 3 of the Oaks
Future Wager is 17/1 and includes Dreaming of Anna, who will be no more than 3/1
in the gate for the Oaks?
Cmon, humor me-- any shot this was a well thought out set up by Calabrese/
Catalano, hiding their intentions to run in the Oaks until after the 3rd Future
pool was announced, and placing a decent sized \"all other\" wager? Anybody out
there on the grassy knoll with me?
Hey those guys don\'t bet a lot......
NC Tony
17-1 isn\'t too bad and makes it tough to leave her off the Oaks/Derby DD ticket . If there\'s a big time knock on this one , i really don\'t see it myself - she could have bounced imo as a 2 yo - but you can\'t have everything ...
If those guys were setting up a future pool Oaks wager surely the \"all other fillies\" would have closed lower than 17-1. Wouldn\'t it?
I do not believe there was any intention.
In fact I do kow that, she suddenly changed her work performance for the better after the layoff. I think she just showed more interest, but it took a while after her layoffs for her interest to reapear. Some never do.
Since she did well previously in her other attempt at CD, and there is a lot of prestige at stake here for breeding and resale puposes, why not try. That money far exceeds any betting coup.
I doubt they had more than $100 on her in any of the pools.
NC Tony
Richies\' been dipping into my mushrooms again!
they dont bet much? ha ha way too funny.
Total Pool for this wager is usually around $50,000, which means that the \"Field\" probably had around $3000 wagered on it. That would yield a whopping return of about $50,000 or so for a filly which must already be worth quite a bit.
The total pool handle was 71K.
Agreed that with such a small pool, there was no potential for thievery.
Yes its true that the residual value of DOA well exceeds any amount that could
be bet.
I\'ll go back to the Grassy Knoll, and have a chuckle at that Derby by Yums
bogus. I mean bonus.
Perfect derby sponsor this year, YUM BRANDS,they like rats and there a quite a few in there.
Mike
The horse isn\'t fast enough to win. She runs a 4 at best.
shes got a big chance so sure, why not?
richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The Kentucky Oaks is as prestigious as almost any
> race for fillies in the US,
> and a win in that race (in addition to a win in
> the BC Juvie Fillies) can be
> worth millions in terms of the value of a
> broodmare.
>
> THAT BEING SAID, did anybody notice that ALL OTHER
> FILLIES in Pool 3 of the Oaks
> Future Wager is 17/1 and includes Dreaming of
> Anna, who will be no more than 3/1
> in the gate for the Oaks?
>
> Cmon, humor me-- any shot this was a well thought
> out set up by Calabrese/
> Catalano, hiding their intentions to run in the
> Oaks until after the 3rd Future
> pool was announced, and placing a decent sized
> \"all other\" wager? Anybody out
> there on the grassy knoll with me?
i\'m not overly impressed with the prices ( or patterns ) of RTR , DOA , HH and the others at about 5-1 morning line . SH , ST , CI haven\'t run at the 1 or 2 level but look like interesting longshots imo - specially \'cash ( if the ml price holds ) in pp #2 , if she runs a small top and then picks up another point or so in ground while \'rags and \'heels run off their tops ...
Marcus and Others, How do you see her line? She toyed with Sealy Hill a few back. Her last seems buried. I really like Tampa as a great conditioning surface,deep and tiring.Obviously Nafzger,Pletcher and Zito also like the surface at Tam with their 3yo boys.
Anyone close to the Zito camp? What\'s ole Nick had to say about this filly?
Thanks
sandreadis - those 2 yo ( and 3 yo ) fillie patterns can keep one guessing at times . another complicating factor for me is that 2 & 3 yo races are part of the same campaign ... ending her 2 yo season she tailed off but got back in short order in her 2nd race as a 3 yo - then ran her second worst career figure last time but that number looked like a real and healthy bounce - imo , so maybe the decks are clear for this one to run a new top next - but i personally perfer it when they move forward right away when completing a circle pattern - also AG could potentially give back most of any top effort run due to ground loss from pp #10 . but if she\'s a Big price like 30-1 / 40-1 in the oaks/derby dd pool - she might be worth throwing in as an insurence policy ... i\'m still undecided but will probably throw out RTR from the oaks/derby dd and go w/a 4 x 1 , SH , CI , ST and AG while a singling one horse in the second leg ...
Marcus, Thanks for the analysis. Always respected and appreciated.
I asked you about Dominican in the Bluegrass and you told me he was usable at 30-1.I bet him @ 8-1 that day and I\'m hoping Autobahn girl will give the same results.There are a couple points about Dominican I have not heard discussed. In both races he lost position and was not as well placed as I think Miller or Bejarano would have liked. At TP he was a 1/2 step slow at the break and had to rate off the pace. He closed off the pace on a day when speed was winning EVERYTHING. Also, in the Bluegrass, I thought Bejarano was going to fall off the horse in the first turn. He either took a bad step,clipped heels or got pinched but this cost him position. I didn\'t think there was any way Dominican could outfinish GH,SS or Zanjero. These horses had first run and Dominican showed us all how talented this gelding is. I think this horse will show more speed in the Derby. Reminds me a bit of Thunder Gulch.
I agree with everything you said, but he will now be saddled with Post 1-19 or 20. 19 or 20 are the Kiss of Death.
That is why you never pre-pick a Derby Horse, until the PP\'s are assigned. It could change everything.
He will still out finish Tueflesberg though.
NC Tony
thanks sandreadis , discussing some of these races - specially the big ones - with yourself and most everyone on the TG board is an excellent learning experience for me . as a very inexperienced player , one of my mistakes is gauging what is an accpetable price given the race specific circumstances . don\'t know if i was getting a little greedy , but i obviously was looking for too much when wanting 30-1 on dominican in the BG ...