The Derby is coming up as a very competitive race with 4 or 5 horses with faster numbers but another 6 or 7 horses that will be competitive and could win if they move up 1 or 2 points.
FWIW Street Sense has to be the key based on overall pattern -- never running a bad race -- improving line this year and the strength of his numbers. Throw in the \"Nafzger knows how to peak a horse for big races\" angle and he is the horse most likely to win.
AGS is probably the only other horse who deserves to be below 10:1 in the betting. His line is not as strong but his top is very competitive, his line is nice, and he had a small bounce in last from which he could return to or break through his top.
Scat Daddy has done nothing wrong and is as fast as anybody else. I can\'t get over the Johannesburg pedigree though. He is more likely than not to bounce off his FL Derby top but at likely 10-12:1 odds will be priced about right.
CQ is a must toss for me. Suspect breeding and 8-week layoff after significant new top makes him an easy one to leave out. I do not know how his pattern looks on TG but it\'s a pretty ugly top on Ragozin. He could always win but anything under 20:1 is a big underlay in my view.
Curlin is another horse that I will be leaving off the vast majority if not all of my tickets. He is almost as fast as SS, AGS, SD, and a couple others but I do not like the pair up top coupled with shorter rest than he had before his last race. Add the seasoning angle and short odds and it\'s another easy decision. If he wins, more power to him but he\'ll be no value.
I do not have a good read on Nobiz. He has run pretty fast every time but his best number both years has been in his first start. I can\'t toss him but 15:1 seems about right.
Great Hunter has never done anything wrong but is about two points slower than the top contenders. He is another 15:1 or so horse.
Same with Hard Spun -- improving line, slightly slow but plenty of spacing for his races.
After these, there are several marginal horses like Dominican, Zanjero, Cowtown Cat and Teuflesburg who could always surprise but you\'ll need big odds on them.
The SA Derby horses are all easy tosses for me.
I think there are a couple of ways that I am thinking about playing the race -- 1) Key Street Sense to win and in exotics. 2) Toss the overbet horses Curlin and CQ and the 6-8 that are just too slow and throw a blanket over 10 or so horses hoping for a couple of prices to get into the Tri or Super. I\'ll probably do both.
D. Patent,
SS has an improving line this year? That means his last race(one of the slowest in BG history) was an improved effort off the TAMPA race.I have reviewed 3 sets of strong data, not TG yet, and none have SS improving in his second start.
Not saying SS won\'t win but I question Len\'s judgement on the fig awarded SS.Why bother timing races if that was \"an improvement\" over his previous start.
Mike
Mike,
SS\'s BG was an improvement (vast?) because of his race last year at Kee. Carl is on record saying polytrack is not SS\'s best surface, yet his figure this year was about 3 points better than last year.
You have to look at the BCJ as a bit flukey. 10 legnth win over horses now everyone and his mother are gushing over. Why was it flukey? That\'s the question. The answer ( I think....) is that polytrack moves this horse up. He doesn\'t like it and when he gets on the CD dirt, he\'s like a kid in a candy store - an American pot smoker in Amsterdam - a sex maniac in Las Vegas (add your own analogy here_____________)
This horse, barring any of the usual BS (I have forewarned you all about)is a friggin mortal lock to win. He will pair or top his negative 2.
Can\'t argue with the analysis, the courage to key in on one horse especially.
Curlin is another matter. His breeding is among the best. Mr. Prospector one generation diluted with a stamina type mare can be solid stuff. If your focusing upon dosage I could understand the knock. Look at the breeding again, his closing Ark fraction and check the Broodmare stats of Deputy Minister. The only thing I can find against him is failure to work at the track. Prospectors and Danzigs have generally taken to Churchill, but you never know. He may not care for sandy. Theres no substitute for acclimating a horse to genuine Kentucky terra firma. Then again, if you\'re looking to toss the favorite here he is.
CtC
MO Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> You have to look at the BCJ as a bit flukey. 10
> legnth win over horses now everyone and his mother
> are gushing over. Why was it flukey? That\'s the
> question. The answer ( I think....) is that
> polytrack moves this horse up. He doesn\'t like it
> and when he gets on the CD dirt, he\'s like a kid
> in a candy store - an American pot smoker in
> Amsterdam - a sex maniac in Las Vegas (add your
> own analogy here... \"A Rogue GOP President with a Republicon Congress\"____________)
>
> This horse, barring any of the usual BS (I have
> forewarned you all about)is a friggin mortal lock
> to win. He will pair or top his negative 2.
Richiebee wrote:
Its all good though, Flighted. You will be getting a very bettable price
on a colt from a leading jockey/trainer combo ( each of whom will win multiple
Derbys when all is said and done).The colt has run well at CD. His running style
might be poor- post immune. He\'s been working well in company with the TAPazon
Rags to Riches. My feeling is that potential traffic problems are a much bigger
threat to his success than the 8 week rest
Rich I\'m not so sure Pletcher is going to get to multiple Derby winners. Hes gonna need to go entirely grey and lose some hair to accumulate some real horsemanship. His horses start out fast and pretty much stay fast. I really dont think he\'s brought a horse on a forging pattern to the Derby but I\'ll check that in the Archives. At least that is my impression. I know many think he\'ll fill out the Trifecta, I think hes gonna miss the board even having stacked the deck. Theres no dodging or dancing in this one.
MO,
Was not comparing SS\'s poly performance last year vs poly this year.Rags has SS running faster in the BG than in his previous TAMPA race.Not on this planet, maybe elsewhere. Rags tossed the time and evaluated the horses off their usual figs, projection voodoo, in this case, with total disregard for the teletimer.No good/great horse that ever lived can run to their normal performance figs off a 1.16.3 6f split, they just can\'t make up the time.
SS has looked very mortal to me this year and he will need a good set up and a \"live\" rail to run another neg -2,imo.He does follow last years set up, KEE poly to CD dirt, a powerful pattern for SS in itself.
I think SS may go favorite as almost no-one seems to like Curlin for a variety of reasons.Good luck MO,as Saddam would say, this is the mother of all derbies.The most interesting thing about this derby to me is that none of these can afford a tough trip and still win. It\'s a pretty even bunch with a few with slightly better on # power.
Mike
Having viewed the same data,and Thorographs on major contenders here is how I see it. I use breeding data #s from Mike Veitch on OTB tv and it differers from your\'s yielding a different opinion:
Street Sense-Both have a regression from the Breeders Cup race. Thorograph has him slightly regressing in the Blue Grass from Tampa Bay, Rags has him with a minimal improvement, but not near the Breeder\'s Cup #. Breeding says he won\'t make 1 1/4. Between his breeding and his 3yo #s not being among the best in here, I can\'t see him winning.
Any Given Saturday-His top is only competitive. I\'m smelling an 0-2-X pattern. I\'m sensing regression, not progress. No matter what excuse they want to use, he tired going 1 1/8 and Johnny V went to Quay.
Scat Daddy: His breeding # is weak. I agree with your analysis. He has a much better foundation on Thorographs than Rags. Thorograph readers may be less inclined to expect a bounce.
Circular Quay: Similar pattern on both. Big 3yo jump from final 2yo #. But-we don\'t have a real 3yo 1st race # due to Slew\'s Tizzy dumping his jockey right in front of him. So coming off his 2yo tops, which are right there with all the others except SS\'s monster BC (which SS has not come close to duplicating) he breaks through as a 3yo in his only measurable race has 8 weeks off and is working great. The breeding # says he will run all day, I see a pairup at least and I don\'t know if we\'ve even hit this horses\'s peak yet. My main concern is a slow enough pace to get him jammed up making his move. I\'ll be playing him as 1 of my 2 major plays. However, based on what the rest he needed after La, he\'s a total toss in the Preakness if he runs well in Ky.
Curlin: Rags, slower than some of the other contenders, Thorograph, 2nd fastest 3yo race. I agree in general with you in terms of playing him, but he scares the heck out of me.
Nobiz Like Showbiz-This is one horse that is a different read on each product. On Thorograph, he looks like a horse who is slower than the main contenders and is not progressing, even though his 2yo #s are good enough to compete with all but SS\'s BC. An optomist might see this as a delayed explosion, waiting to happen. A pessimist would say he\'s too slow with no progress and not worth playing. As you\'ve stated, Rags #s show good first race & regression. A pessimist would say he runs best only off long layoffs or he\'s best at 1 mile and regresses as the distance gets longer. An optomist would take a different view: his two tops in his 1st races show he\'s right there with the fastest horses, he regressed in his 2nd start of the year, and his 3rd race of year #s are irrelevant because he easily won the Remsen and did not need to run any faster since he was so much in control of the race; and his Wood was a winning effort when the goal was just keeping him fit for the Derby. I\'m taking the optomist view-call it either the delayed explosion on TG or a slight move forward from his top on R, and he\'s my other major play. I believe this horse is set to peak on 5/5 by a trainer who also knows how to peak a horse for big races, hasn\'t even scratched his best #s and unlike SS, has the breeding #s to easily handle 1 1/4.
I agree on Great Hunter noting that on Thorographs he shows a regression from his 2yo top and I don\'t believe he has a strong enough foundation to move forward.
Hard Spun-His #s are not as competitive as others, his training up to the race has been suspect, and I don\'t think he\'s ever beaten a horse anywhere near the class of the top horses here. I\'m not putting a dime on him.
The only other horse I can see winning is Cowtown Cat, but he\'ll have to improve on both sheets. I think Zanjero can drop into the exotics but is too slow to win. Dominican is a tough read due to polytrack to dirt, wouldn\'t be a total shock if he ran ok, win would shock me.
I\'m looking at Doubles, p3s with Nobiz Like Showbiz & Circular Quay as my plays. Saving with tris and supers with Cowtown Cat, Curlin, Street Sense, Zanjero, Great Hunter and Any Given Saturday(in case he doesn\'t 0-2-X). The horse I want nothing to do with is Hard Spun, even though he\'s bred to run all day.
toppled Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Having viewed the same data,and Thorographs on
> major contenders here is how I see it. I use
> breeding data #s from Mike Veitch on OTB tv and it
> differers from your\'s yielding a different
> opinion:
>
> Street Sense-Both have a regression from the
> Breeders Cup race. Thorograph has him slightly
> regressing in the Blue Grass from Tampa Bay, Rags
> has him with a minimal improvement, but not near
> the Breeder\'s Cup #. Breeding says he won\'t make
> 1 1/4. Between his breeding and his 3yo #s not
> being among the best in here, I can\'t see him
> winning.
What about his Breeding \"Says\" \"He wont get a mile and a quarter\"? The fact his sire won the Dubai World Cup and another race at 10 poles? The fact that his sire loved Churchill Downs? The fact that his sire side Pedigree is loaded with Stamina Turf influence? The fact that Ribot and Native Dancer influence his Female side and that he has a broodmare sire that has sired 5 GSW this year? Including Dominican and Bandini two years ago. Then you go on to say Circular Quay is loaded with Distance pedigree with a Belong to Me female side? Are you serious or wishing and hoping? Wouldn\'t it be a lot more honest to say, I\'m tossing this horse because you never know and pool money will be riding on him? I\'m hoping his 2 3YO efforts are representative of his true form?
> Any Given Saturday-His top is only competitive.
> I\'m smelling an 0-2-X pattern. I\'m sensing
> regression, not progress. No matter what excuse
> they want to use, he tired going 1 1/8 and Johnny
> V went to Quay.
Tend to think AGS is gonna finish way up the track.
> Scat Daddy: His breeding # is weak. I agree with
> your analysis. He has a much better foundation on
> Thorographs than Rags. Thorograph readers may be
> less inclined to expect a bounce.
The really interesting head to head is going to be between Scat and Nobiz. I know Tagg was shocked he lost the Fountain of Youth. Since then Nobiz has been trained to battle. But I\'m not so sure you can battle a couple of blurs though.
> Circular Quay: Similar pattern on both. Big 3yo
> jump from final 2yo #. But-we don\'t have a real
> 3yo 1st race # due to Slew\'s Tizzy dumping his
> jockey right in front of him. So coming off his
> 2yo tops, which are right there with all the
> others except SS\'s monster BC (which SS has not
> come close to duplicating) he breaks through as a
> 3yo in his only measurable race has 8 weeks off
> and is working great. The breeding # says he will
> run all day, I see a pairup at least and I don\'t
> know if we\'ve even hit this horses\'s peak yet. My
> main concern is a slow enough pace to get him
> jammed up making his move. I\'ll be playing him as
> 1 of my 2 major plays. However, based on what the
> rest he needed after La, he\'s a total toss in the
> Preakness if he runs well in Ky.
At least he\'s got a number to hope in. Recent trend is last race Prep toppers have not faired well in the Derby.
> Curlin: Rags, slower than some of the other
> contenders, Thorograph, 2nd fastest 3yo race. I
> agree in general with you in terms of playing him,
> but he scares the heck out of me.
He should.
>
> Nobiz Like Showbiz-This is one horse that is a
> different read on each product. On Thorograph, he
> looks like a horse who is slower than the main
> contenders and is not progressing, even though his
> 2yo #s are good enough to compete with all but
> SS\'s BC. An optomist might see this as a delayed
> explosion, waiting to happen. A pessimist would
> say he\'s too slow with no progress and not worth
> playing. As you\'ve stated, Rags #s show good
> first race & regression. A pessimist would say he
> runs best only off long layoffs or he\'s best at 1
> mile and regresses as the distance gets longer.
> An optomist would take a different view: his two
> tops in his 1st races show he\'s right there with
> the fastest horses, he regressed in his 2nd start
> of the year, and his 3rd race of year #s are
> irrelevant because he easily won the Remsen and
> did not need to run any faster since he was so
> much in control of the race; and his Wood was a
> winning effort when the goal was just keeping him
> fit for the Derby. I\'m taking the optomist
> view-call it either the delayed explosion on TG or
> a slight move forward from his top on R, and he\'s
> my other major play. I believe this horse is set
> to peak on 5/5 by a trainer who also knows how to
> peak a horse for big races, hasn\'t even scratched
> his best #s and unlike SS, has the breeding #s to
> easily handle 1 1/4.
Having shown no real interest in the last 1/8 in 9 pole events and being out of a Storm Cat mare, why is the 10 marks no problem for Nobiz and an issue for Street Sense? Ok, he likes Aqueduct, but has he finished like a Derby horse and can he run a close stalking race with his blinkers and have the slightest ability to hold off whats coming at him the last 3 poles? Maybe he gets away with easier fractions and improves enough to do it. His Trainer is the real McCoy.
>
> I agree on Great Hunter noting that on Thorographs
> he shows a regression from his 2yo top and I don\'t
> believe he has a strong enough foundation to move
> forward.
If the Bluegrass was a fair bill, you have to factor this horse.
> Hard Spun-His #s are not as competitive as others,
> his training up to the race has been suspect, and
> I don\'t think he\'s ever beaten a horse anywhere
> near the class of the top horses here. I\'m not
> putting a dime on him.
You threw one out, congratulations. But are you sure you picked the right one to toss?
>
> The only other horse I can see winning is Cowtown
> Cat, but he\'ll have to improve on both sheets. I
> think Zanjero can drop into the exotics but is too
> slow to win. Dominican is a tough read due to
> polytrack to dirt, wouldn\'t be a total shock if he
> ran ok, win would shock me.
>
> I\'m looking at Doubles, p3s with Nobiz Like
> Showbiz & Circular Quay as my plays. Saving with
> tris and supers with Cowtown Cat, Curlin, Street
> Sense, Zanjero, Great Hunter and Any Given
> Saturday(in case he doesn\'t 0-2-X). The horse I
> want nothing to do with is Hard Spun, even though
> he\'s bred to run all day.
You\'re betting like Len Friedman...focus some and come back when you\'re really down to your best 1 or 2. You don\'t cover the field in the Derby.
They haven\'t drawn post positions yet, if neither gets a bad draw Nobiz & CQ are the only win plays in Win, DD & P-3 pools. The others -savers- are for $1 tris & supers, I\'m linking them with my 2 top choices. I don\'t think Nobiz & CQ will run 1-2 due to different race developments necessary for each to reach full potential so exacta play will be limited.
I\'m no breeding expert, the guy on OTB is, and his #s say Street Sense will have a very difficult time with the distance. His #s based on 10 for 10f are Street Sense 8.725, Circular Quay 10.20, translated SS\'s best distance would be 8.725 f, and CQ\'s would be 10.20 f. Nobiz is 9.80. We\'ll see in 6 days.
Hey Chuck,
I have ADHD. Where the F am I supposed to start with this long winded post,eh?
MO
P.S. One word answers (or there abouts) would do you well.
Toppled -- Do you have a link for the breeding analysis you cited. I do find it interesting that some analysts think SS can run all day and CQ is suspect and others say just the opposite. What does that say about the science of breeding analysis?
Mo agreed but this is also a guy who has saved every email for the last eight years. Thumbs up on your stance on SS. At least you are out there.
If SS conditioned forward on Ragozin then that is most likely who they will be picking.
Pletcher blazed Cowtown Cat in his work so he is sending (there may be a sale involving this horse this week). Good there will be heavy pace. His former boss (Lukas) taught him well.
A rapid pace does not bode well for NoBiz and Hard Spun. Think Pletcher knows that. Three of his AGS, CQ and Scat Daddy benefit from that. Think Pletcher knows that.
Curlin will be looking real animals in the eye from beginning to end this time. Don\'t blink.
I have my key and it will not be any of the above. See everybody in the IRS Line.
IN THIS DAY AND AGE, SMART HANDICAPPERS TAKE THE POSITION THAT THERE AINT A HORSE ON THE PLANET THAT IS BRED FOR OR CAN GET 10F, DOSAGE NOT WITHSTANDING.
Therefore you bet the fastest horse and have your bitches/excuses ready in advance.
At the top of my list will be : Borel couldn\'t ride a broomstick around my back yard. I have yet to cash a ticket on any horse he ever rode. Doesn\'t matter if he\'s the lone speed or 20 legnths faster than the field, he\'s a f-up. But he\'s also a dipsh#t. He rides more 50-1 shot winners than I can count.............If he\'s that lucky, and that dumb at the same time, I\'m betting he brings a buzzer to the Derby. Not that he would use it, but just for insurance. He want\'s this race. This horse should be 2 -1 just on my bullsh*t. winky winky
SC, You make EXCELLENT points to the experienced handicapper! Is Your longshot from MD? Mine is.
P. S. Last time I was this confident in Derby was with Siver Charm.
He hasn\'t done them all. I think they were on Capitalotb.com last year on derby day. These are what he\'s done so far. Remember, 10.0 is best. Some go over, most go under. Anything less than 9.0 means he doesn\'t expect the horse to get 10.0 f
Scat Daddy 8.80
Nobiz Like Showbiz 9.80
Hard Spun 9.85
Street Sense 8.725
Any Given Saturday 9.30
Great Hunter 10.35
Stormello 9.20
Circular Quay 10.20
Curlin 9.125
Cobalt Blue 9.725
Liquidity 9.85
Cowtown Cat 9.00
Tiago 9.375
Dominican 9.85
Teuflesberg 9.05
Zanjero 9.65
Sam P 9.05
Storm in May 9.40
Ctc:
As always, I appreciate the contrarian handicapping views. And about those early
morning songwriting ventures, I want you to know that Phil Spector called me
this morning and he wants you to take over his music biz until the jury out in
California figures out a way to find him not guilty.
With regards to TAP, the man shows up first weekend in May with a $1.9 million
yearling purchase for the Oaks, a $1.1 million yearling purchase for the Derby
and a $1.5 million 2YO in training purchase for the Derby. As long as he keeps
himself stocked with this type of horseflesh (no Green Monkey jokes please) he
will eventually prevail.
Nice Derby line by the way--Teufle shorter odds than CQ and AGS and 125/1 on
the Blue Grass winner. BRILLIANT!
SC -
Pletcher said in his Bloodhorse interview that Cowtown Cat was on the engine in Illinois only because the pace was slow, and that he expected him to be in the second flight on 5/5. Do you think he\'s blowing smoke?
Off Topic: In my Internet meanderings this morn I read a blog post from someone using your moniker who had qualified for the NHC yesterday. Was that you or an imitation?
This horse has send and stop written all over him. Pletcher knows what he is doing.
Think Honour and Glory.
No that wasn\'t me in the NHC or on the blog. But if he said a lot of nasty things about a lot really good people.
Then I want credit for it..........
Thanks, Toppled. That would definitely be cause for concern if accurate. Does anybody know how this analysis has held up in the past for the Derby? In particular, I wonder what Thunder Gulch, Go for Gin, and Monarchos looked like.
I know it worked for years, but didn\'t work that well in the Giacomo and Smarty Jones Derbies. I don\'t recall the #s and whether they were below 9-I think Smarty wasn\'t anywhere as low as Street Sense, but there were a lot higher #s. Still, Smarty was so much faster than the rest, it really didn\'t come down to breeding. Giacomo was the only one I remember who had a low number (I don\'t recall what it was,but it was in the bottom 3 and possibly the lowest, I really didn\'t know about the 9 cutoff until this year so I never paid attention before) but that race defied just about every handicapping angle other than started working out better in the mornings and ran the race of his life. This year the #s are so close, I\'m taking breeding into account more to separate them, so I\'m paying closer attention to the details of the #s. Last year the method was a great success. Barbaro had a good #, but I had Barbaro more on class and a pattern I liked that made me think he was explosive. I didn\'t bother using Bluegrass Cat even though his breeding # was good, because I tossed him off his Bluegrass-my mistake. The OTB guy loved Barbaro last year & I\'m sure he cashed an exacta because he loved Bluegrass Cat\'s breeding. I don\'t think 10f breeding can speed up a slow horse, but lack of it can slow down a fast horse when the #s we\'re looking at are at shorter distances. I didn\'t bet the Derby the year Smarty Jones won it, so I\'m not sure what I would have done if I had analyzed it.
The way he does it he goes back multiple generations on both sides of the horse\'s lineage assigns a # to the sire and specific mare and averages them. For example: Any Given Saturday-Sire 10.0, mare 8.60 ave 9.30. I don\'t have the breakdown for Street Sense since I wasn\'t watching the show that day when he gave all the details, so I only have the total #. This year he did detailed study on all but the last 4 he did-Teuflesberg, Zanjero, Sam P and Storm In May-those he did a shorter lineage check going back less generations.
Miss the board? Just by chance,you\'re not an american currently visiting Amsterdam?
No, I\'m a beer guy. In fact I\'m going to have one now I think. Theres at least 3 horses in this race better than anything Pletcher has and probably a fourth. That fourth horse is Nobiz. Theres also a couple of longshots that have a money chance. Tony\'s Dominican for example, but I really dont like his number power. Some folks think theres value in tossing the fastest horses. I think theres value in tossing Pletcher in this race. Thats the way I\'ll go. One of his bothers me some and I may include him some. Certainly not in first.
Flighted Iron Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Miss the board? Just by chance,you\'re not an
> american currently visiting Amsterdam?
Not currently.............unless you have a 3 month layoff angle you\'d like to share......
Ya know Argarn, I don\'t know why everybody says your so dumb. NoBiz would be the horse I would play as the upsetter. Except that he\'s only 4 lgnths slower on his best to SS.
Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Mo agreed but this is also a guy who has saved
> every email for the last eight years. Thumbs up on
> your stance on SS. At least you are out there.
Silver, I didn\'t save any emails or messages. Tgraph has a \'search\' function. I just understand their board is all...lol
> If SS conditioned forward on Ragozin then that is
> most likely who they will be picking.
Theres really no way to determine a legitimate figure for the Bluegrass. Thats not stated for effect. The track was/is as capricious and fickle a surface as this game has ever endured. The Bluegrass was a conditioning race for four horses, now those horses move to a surface where their efforts can be factored.
> Pletcher blazed Cowtown Cat in his work so he is
> sending (there may be a sale involving this horse
> this week). Good there will be heavy pace. His
> former boss (Lukas) taught him well.
He blazed Cowtown \"in tandem\" with Turfing Magnificent Song and Cowtown put a nose on her at the wire. No other Derby starters worked at Polyexington that day so it was a tuff fraction to figure. In my opinion Cowtown is Pletchers best chance and I don\'t think he\'s intending a \"lead or bust\" strategy with him.
The only other horse to worry about re: pace is Stormello. Currin says they will change tactics and rate. If they do Der Teufle inherits the wind, provided he breaks cleanly, which has been a major problem for him. I\'m much less confident about Stormello changing tactics. If Stormello wants the lead its probably his for the taking, but if he does change tactics I could see Teufles where he wants to be. Upon the lead, on a carrying strip, trying to stretch that speed with his raced in foundation all the way to the wire. I think the good horses will get him, but it will be very entertaining.
> A rapid pace does not bode well for NoBiz and Hard
> Spun. Think Pletcher knows that. Three of his AGS,
> CQ and Scat Daddy benefit from that. Think
> Pletcher knows that.
Hard Spun has been schooled to run just off the pace. \"Barbaro Like\". He\'ll probably get first run at the pace horses. Nobiz has wanted to run up front and to my eye the blinkers will keep him there.
> Curlin will be looking real animals in the eye
> from beginning to end this time. Don\'t blink.
Depending upon post draw Curlin will be about 2 or 3 lengths behind Hard Spun. Curlin will get second run at the leaders.
> I have my key and it will not be any of the above.
> See everybody in the IRS Line.
Zanjero will look good with a quarter to go.
There is no science to breeding. \"The OTB\" guy has only Circular Quay and Great Hunter qualifying. Obviously he\'s fixating upon the sires again.
With Pedigree you look how far and in what Class the Sire ran. Factor the same for the Dam and then consider the Get of BOTH. You factor that in consideration of how the horse under review has ran at distance and lastly you look at the remote genetic threads. There is no science and Street Sense looks better than Circular Quay. Zanjero was getting to Quay in the Louisiana Derby. Not with a rush but he came from farther back and was making ground and that race knocked Quay off his schedule.
dpatent Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Toppled -- Do you have a link for the breeding
> analysis you cited. I do find it interesting that
> some analysts think SS can run all day and CQ is
> suspect and others say just the opposite. What
> does that say about the science of breeding
> analysis?
CtC,
Calling the :58.91 move \"as good as a horse could work,\" trainer Todd Pletcher expressed great pleasure with the five-furlong performance of Cowtown Cat over the Keeneland Polytrack Saturday morning. According to Pletcher, Cowtown Cat clocked the last quarter in :23.03, while galloping out in 1:11.69.
Remember this was a work so shave at least 2 seconds off each split. Also go back and look up Honour and Glory, Serenas Song, Spanish Chestnut, Going Wild and see who owned and trained all of the above and see if there is a common thread.
I hope the horses and some shaky riders are placed exactly where you say they will be. Pletcher is using Prado, Gomez and Velasquez. This is not Mo, Larry and Curly.
Zanjero almost X\'ed in his last.
No Thanks.
I don\'t remember owners, but I usually remember who trained. I\'m relying strictly upon the grey matter here so forgive me if I\'m wrong but here goes...
Honour and Glory, Serena\'s Song and Going Wild were trained by Lukas.
Spanish Chestnut by Biacone
Chestnut and Going Wild were Giacomos year werent\' they? Hot pace fried both I think. Can\'t remember now with certainty. But I\'m pretty sure I got the trainers right.
Cowtown is Winstar and Maybe Pletcher does intend to sacrifice their horse to a speed duel.
With the works, I\'m really not sure how much time can be shaved. They start them off at full gallops before they time and if they are finishing at the wire the home stretch can be exceedingly fast there. As fast as the backside can be slow. Absolutely crazy place for factoring time. As Frankie Goes to Hollywood says \"Relax don\'t do it\" That said I do think Cowtown will give Pletcher his best finish.
Regarding Jockeys, Im not one to put too much stock in them. The ones you listed are not bad. I think Jara is going to beat them all though.
CtC
Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> CtC,
>
> Calling the :58.91 move \"as good as a horse could
> work,\" trainer Todd Pletcher expressed great
> pleasure with the five-furlong performance of
> Cowtown Cat over the Keeneland Polytrack Saturday
> morning. According to Pletcher, Cowtown Cat
> clocked the last quarter in :23.03, while
> galloping out in 1:11.69.
>
> Remember this was a work so shave at least 2
> seconds off each split. Also go back and look up
> Honour and Glory, Serenas Song, Spanish Chestnut,
> Going Wild and see who owned and trained all of
> the above and see if there is a common thread.
>
> I hope the horses and some shaky riders are placed
> exactly where you say they will be. Pletcher is
> using Prado, Gomez and Velasquez. This is not Mo,
> Larry and Curly.
>
> Zanjero almost X\'ed in his last.
>
> No Thanks.
Let me just say this.
If the King (D. Wayne) himself didn\'t walk down to Pletchers barn somewhere in the last week or so and grab him by his right ear and turn it sideways and say,
\"Listen you dumbass didn\'t I teach you correctly on what it takes to win this race\"
Then Mike Tabor did.
Ctc
Those Keeneland works are up on their website for everyone to see.
I agree he\'s the Winstar rabbit.If I\'m wrong,what about the neck and kidney sweat on a cool morning? How\'s he gonna look heading to the gate on Saturday?
There are some interesting \"differences\" between TG and Rags on the Derby horses, and if I get some time I\'ll address them. But on the Blue Grass and Miff\'s point-- it looks like they did the opposite of what Miff thought they did, and it\'s crazy.
What they basically did was to declare (correctly) that it was what we call an \"S. Pace\", a race where the pace is so slow that the final time is affected-- they just can\'t make up the lost time, and the final time is slower than it should have been. In those cases you have to throw out the time and just do the race off the horses figure histories and their relationship at the wire, after taking into account lengths beaten, ground, and weight. That\'s how all the serious figure makers (TG, Beyer, TimeForm) do it.
But here\'s the thing. After declaring the race \"S. Pace\", Ragozin gave two of the horses in the race-- Teuflesberg and Dominican-- big new tops.
How does that work, exactly? You decide the race would have gone faster, so you don\'t use the final time and do it off the horses, but you give 30% of the horses in the race (or more, I only have the ones coming back in the Derby) big new tops? Huh?
What they did, it looks like, was to both declare it S. Pace AND tie it to the next race, which was the one that featured an even crazier pace (1:18:23 6f), which meant you had to adjust it even more. They tied two S. Pace races together, which is completely nuts. The whole point of those S. Paces is that you CAN\'T use the final time.
Having said all that a couple of points. First, given the circumstances of the Blue Grass, when it comes to Street Sense, I wouldn\'t take his figure seriously unless it had been terrible, or huge, for which he would have had to win by ten, which was pretty much impossible under the circumstances. I think it\'s basically irrelevant to reading him whether it\'s a forward move, backward move, or pair.
Second, despite the differences in our figures and Len\'s, it looks like users of both data will be playing mostly the same group of horses, unfortunately. At least I would be-- from the comments of some posters here I\'m wondering if they are looking at the same sheets I\'m looking at for the seminar.
TGJB,
Don\'t exactly know how Beyer/Hopkins handled the race but they have it slower than Rags(translated) with mainly regressions.Have not seen TG BG figs yet.
Your excellent point on the new Sheet tops just highlights the sometimes total disregard for what happens really on the track, on occasion. Of course anyone who follows the game could see that 30% of the runners in the BG ran their BEST race ever.I\'d put that square box you sometimes use to denote a race to difficult to evaluate before having the moxey to suggest that any BG runner ran a new top, thats playing God.
Anyone using the BG figs as part of a \"pattern\" read is taking an enormous leap of faith, imo.The BG was a nice leisurely workout with a quick finish for the top 5.
Mike
TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> There are some interesting \"differences\" between
> TG and Rags on the Derby horses, and if I get some
> time I\'ll address them. But on the Blue Grass and
> Miff\'s point-- it looks like they did the opposite
> of what Miff thought they did, and it\'s crazy.
>
> What they basically did was to declare (correctly)
> that it was what we call an \"S. Pace\", a race
> where the pace is so slow that the final time is
> affected-- they just can\'t make up the lost time,
> and the final time is slower than it should have
> been. In those cases you have to throw out the
> time and just do the race off the horses histories
> and their relationship at the wire, after taking
> into account lengths beaten, ground, and weight.
> That\'s how all the serious figure makers (TG,
> Beyer, TimeForm) do it.
>
> But here\'s the thing. After declaring the race \"S.
> Pace\", Ragozin gave two of the horses in the
> race-- Teuflesberg and Dominican-- big new tops.
>
> How does that work, exactly? You decide the race
> would have gone faster, so you don\'t use the final
> time and do it off the horses, but you give 30% of
> the horses in the race (or more, I only have the
> ones coming back in the Derby) big new tops? Huh?
>
> What they did, it looks like, was to both declare
> it S. Pace AND tie it to the next race, which was
> the one that featured an even crazier pace
> (1:18:23 6f), which meant you had to adjust it
> even more. They tied two S. Pace races together,
> which is completely nuts. The whole point of those
> S. Paces is that you CAN\'T use the final time.
>
> Having said all that a couple of points. First,
> given the circumstances of the Blue Grass, when it
> comes to Street Sense, I wouldn\'t take his figure
> seriously unless it had been terrible, or huge,
> for which he would have had to win by ten, which
> was pretty much impossible under the
> circumstances. I think it\'s basically irrelevant
> to reading him whether it\'s a forward move,
> backward move, or pair.
>
> Second, despite the differences in our figures and
> Len\'s, it looks like users of both data will be
> playing mostly the same group of horses,
> unfortunately. At least I would be-- from the
> comments of some posters here I\'m wondering if
> they are looking at the same sheets I\'m looking at
> for the seminar.
Jerry, when you adjust a slow paced race with a perfect trip speed horse on the front end, that horse often gets a figure better than he deserves. Teuf got the perfect trip in the BG - he was alone on the lead and gave it all he had for the final 3/8th of a mile or so (drifting out late). Teuf could not have run any faster. But as we all know, if you adjust any, you have to adjust them all. When you adjust the figures for the ones that could have run faster if their jocks had let them, you are forced to sacrifice the figure of the speed horse (ie he gets an adjustment when he does not deserve one).
I have no idea how fast the BG went. I am not putting much emphasis on the figure, from any source. If Teuf does not run well in the Derby, I will not use that as evidence that Ragozin got the figure wrong though. I will focus on the other runners from that race to come to any conclusions (if that is even possible).
Without knowing whether the Ragozin or TG Bluegrass # is \"right\" I do agree that the number is largely irrelevant for SS. Had he slightly regressed on Ragozin I would have virtually the same opinion. He finished fast last year and came out running two pretty good numbers this year.
The issue now for me, thanks to Toppled\'s posts, is whether he wants 10f. If not then I smell some huge prices.
Miff-- Having taken another look, there\'s a very good chance they also gave a big new top to close-up 6th place finisher Time Squared as well, since I had to give him a new top myself or else give everyone else terrible numbers. That would make 3 of the 7 runners getting new tops on Ragozin in a \"S. Pace\" race.
Miff,
\"Don\'t exactly know how Beyer/Hopkins handled the race but they have it slower than Rags(translated) with mainly regressions.\"
As far as I know, the Beyer team has never had a policy on this issue.
In the past, they would usually upgrade the speed figure for a \"slow paced race\" and assign a figure based on the horses\' PPs and their relationship at the finish. Sometimes they did not though. That lack of consistency was a problem.
However, ever since Randy Moss started making pace figures for the DRF (he also makes the Beyer figures for some circuits), they seem to have stopped upgrading as many slow paced races. They just give out the slow figure.
It would appear there may have been some kind of pace related policy implemented when the pace figures became available. Perhaps because both they and handicappers now have the information required to subjectively determine what, if any impact, a slow pace had on the figures for EACH horse seperately, they don\'t feel compelled to adjust them anymore. They may also just be identifying slow paced races vs. track speed change issues better now because they have pace figures to work with.
I do not know, but I have noticed at least some difference even if I missed some races.
dpatent Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Without knowing whether the Ragozin or TG
> Bluegrass # is \"right\" I do agree that the number
> is largely irrelevant for SS. Had he slightly
> regressed on Ragozin I would have virtually the
> same opinion. He finished fast last year and came
> out running two pretty good numbers this year.
>
> The issue now for me, thanks to Toppled\'s posts,
> is whether he wants 10f. If not then I smell some
> huge prices.
I guess you could argue that SS might not want 10f. He has had his share of horses run by him in the final 1/16th. His BC win looked like Arazi\'s CD win, and we all know how badly that colt flattened out six months later (at odds on). I certainly wouldn\'t make that prediction based on breeding though. He\'s by a horse than could run forever (and one that loved CD), and has as many stamina influences on the bottom of his pedigree as you are going to find these days.
Perhaps the RAG\'s \"secret formula\" for slow paced races does not apply to the race as a whole, but to the individual horses based on their own fractions. That could make for some interesting conversation because the figures could/would have no relationship to the actual finish.
In these very slow paced races I tend to seperate the horses based on how they finished \"relative to each other\" because the speed figure almost can\'t be representative for some of the horses. By that standard, horses like Dominican and Street Sense look terrific and Teuflesberg looks terrible even though they all finished fairly close together. Great Hunter also looks OK if you assume he would have finished in the photo. Even Zanjero doesn\'t look too bad. He saved ground relative to the others, but you have to wonder how much that ground loss took out of the other horses considering they were all walking around the track. It\'s possible that only the ground loss in the latter part of the second turn really mattered much because everyone was still fresh and they were all flying. Losing ground at that point almost certainly was a disadvantage.
Michael-- in the case of actual \"S. Pace\" races (as opposed to a race with slow but not extreme fractions where we DO use the final time), I am very conscious of NOT giving out new tops in the situation you mentioned. As a general rule, once you adjust for ground loss, it comes out okay without having to give the frontrunner a new top. And it did in the Blue Grass-- it held together well, as you can see from the 5 that are in the Derby/Oaks package.
TGJB,
I do not pay too much attention to data I believe is very doubtful,at best.Reality is, the BG only caused me concern about SS,and not his fig.
He cocked his ass end inward(looking at the grandstand),did not run past horses with his big run,got run down by a horse behind him, and finished on his wrong lead.The explanation that he just does not like poly seems very reasonable though in light of his last work at CD last week, called phenominal by a veteran clocker I respect.
Mike
fkach,
If Randy Moss is so good,how come he was traded for a 4th round draft pick?!
Pletcher could convince WinStar Cowtowns best chance is a speed pop even though he really doesn\'t think its Cow\'s best chance. Pletcher is obviously NOT a stand up guy so that is possible. How probable is your guess. This is a 1.5 million dollar horse and WinStar is a big client for Pletcher. He plays with their best interests and they will take their well bred horses elsewhere. Thats my read upon it, everyone is free to make their own reads. I don\'t think Jara is a speed pop jockey either unless they tell him to \"go baby go\". Cowtown is two generations removed on the sire side from Danzig and three from Mr. Prospector. On the female side hes two removed from Storm Cat. I like the slightly watered down influence, but the horse obviously has speed to use if they wish to use it.
Part of winning the Derby involves visualizing the race. Maybe Cow does blaze away. Maybe he doesn\'t.
big18741 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Ctc
>
> Those Keeneland works are up on their website for
> everyone to see.
>
> I agree he\'s the Winstar rabbit.If I\'m wrong,what
> about the neck and kidney sweat on a cool morning?
> How\'s he gonna look heading to the gate on
> Saturday?
On another Pletcher note-Scat Daddy worked in bar shoes FWIW.
re: Scat Daddy working in bar shoes.
where did you read or hear this?
richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Ctc:
>
> As always, I appreciate the contrarian
> handicapping views. And about those early
> morning songwriting ventures, I want you to know
> that Phil Spector called me
> this morning and he wants you to take over his
> music biz until the jury out in
> California figures out a way to find him not
> guilty.
The Prosecutor doesn\'t have much of a case in my opinion. His opening statement was to say Spector forced the woman to put the gun in her mouth and he pulled the trigger. Obviously she must have been mouth shot. Who puts a gun in their mouth when asked? No one......Folks put a gun in their mouth that want to commit suicide. Spector will walk so I\'m out of a lyrics gig even if I\'m not bad at it.
>
> With regards to TAP, the man shows up first
> weekend in May with a $1.9 million
> yearling purchase for the Oaks, a $1.1 million
> yearling purchase for the Derby
> and a $1.5 million 2YO in training purchase for
> the Derby. As long as he keeps
> himself stocked with this type of horseflesh (no
> Green Monkey jokes please) he
> will eventually prevail.
Yeah, where is the Green Monkey? All the highest priced horses were busts. You need a little more than expensive horses to pick a horse. Baffert has a 17K and a 70K Derby winner. Pletcher has a little more too. Its called, \"Stop or my mom will shoot you up\"
>
> Nice Derby line by the way--Teufle shorter odds
> than CQ and AGS and 125/1 on
> the Blue Grass winner. BRILLIANT!
Thank You, but I upped the odds on Dominican to 150-1.
Speaking of the Bluegrass, its strains credibility that folks are still insisting the pace was throttled to a 1.16.3 at 6 poles. A 1.13.4 maybe. A 1.14.4 possibly, but there is NO way in racing to throttle back to 1.16.3 on a fast track with that quality of animal. Its just not possible and apparently, I am the only one that understands this. Is that narcissistic?
The horses ran hard, but any number is suspect. The rail was treachery. The backside a quagmire. It was a conditioning race. End of Story.
CtC
appreciate that notice Big, wasn\'t factoring him anyway, but I believe the Pletcher stable has problems you can see it in the movement.
while I am new too this message board, I have found some of the comments a little over the top. The last time I checked we all buy these sheets to give us an upper hand at the window. Whether you like Pletcher or not his horses keep putting money in our pockets. Until they stop him from doing whatever it is he is doing all we can do is play the horses by the numbers. While I have been using the TG sheets since Silver Charms Derby (cashed a lot more IRS tickets since) I am by far an expert with them. But I have followed the sport religously since 78 here is my opinion of the Derby field.
For starters I am so confused over the Blue Grass that I am simply going ignore that race, other than to point out Dom until he wins on dirt is a poly horse.
SS is the most logical horse in the race off his CD race and works, but probably will offer little value unless 5:1 or better.
Zanjero is usable only underneath in ex/tri.
CQ could be used if not for the 8 week layoff. If Mott was trying this move maybe!
Curlin, while #\'s are good no race @2 and low price makes him a bet against.
AGS pattern is usable if 8:1 or better.
Cowtown Cat is very playable and I like his last work and think he is coming into race better than any of Pletchers horses. Another thing if you all think he is going to use this horse to benefit his other horses I want what your smoking. He wants to win a Derby so bad he is trying to get them all there the best he can.
Hard Spun is bred to run all day and has a good pattern.
NoBiz would finally have to run a new top, and Tagg nows what it takes at CD.
My plan is to use CC, HS and AGS on top of NoBiz, SS, and Scat Daddy.
lol
Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> This horse has send and stop written all over him.
> Pletcher knows what he is doing.
>
> Think Honour and Glory.
>
> No that wasn\'t me in the NHC or on the blog. But
> if he said a lot of nasty things about a lot
> really good people.
>
> Then I want credit for it..........
easygoer89 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>
> Cowtown Cat is very playable and I like his last
> work and think he is coming into race better than
> any of Pletchers horses. Another thing if you all
> think he is going to use this horse to benefit his
> other horses I want what your smoking. He wants
> to win a Derby so bad he is trying to get them all
> there the best he can.
I agree with what you say here for a couple of reasons. I think The other Pletchers have peaked and Cowtown may have a good one in him. I\'m discounting him on top, but it would not totally shock me. Good Luck.
>
> Hard Spun is bred to run all day and has a good
> pattern.
>
> NoBiz would finally have to run a new top, and
> Tagg nows what it takes at CD.
>
> My plan is to use CC, HS and AGS on top of NoBiz,
> SS, and Scat Daddy.
Tucker:
http://www.drf.com/news/article/84478.html
I refuse to pay to read an article. If I get the gist of this article, Scat Daddy is wearing bar shoes. If so, Automatic throw out.
Hard Spun is an intersting horse. I think he will be my backup.
You don\'t have to pay to read it. It\'s a free sign-up for DRF!!
Pletcher says he won\'t where them on Saturday - and anyway, how big of an issue could it be - SD put in the 2nd best time at the distance, and I can\'t imagine Pletcher putting him through a tough work and risk an injury.
Here\'s hoping everyone else does a throw-out too.
I got propmted for a PAY article. I already have access to the free stuff.
There is only 1 reason to wear a bar shoe - cracked hooves. He\'s gonna get well between now and Sat? This I gotta see.
inquiring minds NEED TO KNOW, bar shoes in a workout, doesn\'t sound good, expert opinions please?
Thanks MO, scat daddy goodbye?
Worn for protection and support.If there were no issues why wear them?
Obviously there\'s \"an issue\", but it didn\'t affect his work and he\'s not wearing them (supposedly) on saturday. If come saturday, he\'s wearing them and the track is sloppy (which is possible), then he\'s a toss.
ajkreider Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
I
> can\'t imagine Pletcher putting him through a tough
> work and risk an injury.
>
lol
Definitely a concern. Someone mentioned infirmity issues with Scat and Quay. I guess that was fairly apparent but the bar shoe definitely takes what shine was left off the apple.
I was going to toss him for all but 4th anyway. This is a tough race when you get a chance to eliminate a horse upon jockey selection, physical issue and questionable company you take it in such a race.
Goodbye Scat
Lets see now:
Hard Spun works too fast.
Scat Daddy wearing bar shoes.
Curlin has no two year old foundation.
Street Sense is not bred for a distance.
Any Given Saturday bearing out in the Wood.
Circular Quay is light on breeding and racing.
Who is left???
Maybe Zanjero is a play after all........
You\'ve misinterpreted the data. The cutoff is 9.00, not 10.00. Therefore the only horses that are non qualifiers are Scat Daddy & Street Sense. The closer you are to 10, the better chance of lasting 10f. Any Given Saturday is weak on his female side according to Mr. Veitch\'s analysis, but when he presented the analysis he defended his overall 9.30 as good enough to win the Derby if the horse is up to the task. However, anyone who does not combined with the horse\'s ability & pace of the race into their analysis is missing the picture. It\'s like a year or two ago when he rated a horse very high for 10f, but he was a dead front runner in a race jammed with speed and in spite of his pedigree, in that race he stood no chance. The #s are only one part of a complex puzzle. If the game was easy, none of us would be on our way to work this morning.
Ok,
I dont know what his theory is, but I\'m assuming the figures represent distance acheived in some manner. So he\'s got Scat rated just over a mile when he\'s already won Grade I\'s at 9 poles. Which isn\'t inconsistent with his theory that a horse can go an additional pole past his number. Doesn\'t look like he\'s got any qualifying Belmont winners, but I\'m sure he thinks that race is an exception.
Would you not agree that if Street Sense wins or runs a good race Saturday his numbers are meaningless. Heck, he\'s qualified the whole field except for one (or two depending upon your view) of the big chance horses.
-------------------------------------------------------
> You\'ve misinterpreted the data. The cutoff is
> 9.00, not 10.00. Therefore the only horses that
> are non qualifiers are Scat Daddy & Street Sense.
> The closer you are to 10, the better chance of
> lasting 10f. Any Given Saturday is weak on his
> female side according to Mr. Veitch\'s analysis,
> but when he presented the analysis he defended his
> overall 9.30 as good enough to win the Derby if
> the horse is up to the task. However, anyone who
> does not combined with the horse\'s ability & pace
> of the race into their analysis is missing the
> picture. It\'s like a year or two ago when he
> rated a horse very high for 10f, but he was a dead
> front runner in a race jammed with speed and in
> spite of his pedigree, in that race he stood no
> chance. The #s are only one part of a complex
> puzzle. If the game was easy, none of us would be
> on our way to work this morning.
TGJB -
This is probably a conversation for a less hectic time, but I\'m surprised TG and other figure makers don\'t alter the beaten lengths-to-points conversion in a very slow paced race. Admittedly the result would, of necessity, be somewhat arbitrary, but expecting a field to spread out as much as they would in a normally run race at the same distance seems obviously wrong.
Here\'s Pletcher\'s take on the bar shoes:
\"He won\'t run in them, but he has trained in them,\" Pletcher said. \"It\'s not something new. He\'s had bar shoes, or similar shoes, since July. I\'d say that in the last year, for 10 months he\'s trained in bar shoes. He might not need them any more, but I\'m not going to take a chance now.\"
Thanks to \"HoofBlog\" for the heads-up!
Kinda strange no one\'s noticed them (apparently) until now.
Surprisingly enough, someone on the other board called Friedman on the Bluegrass numbers, and more surprisingly he responded, which almost certainly means he didn\'t see my comments (above, this string), because he would have known not to stick his neck out. Here\'s what he said:
\"The whole point of making a slow pace correction is to adjust what number the horse would have earned using the actual time of the race, to compensate for the unrealistic early slow fractions. Horses can only accelerate up to a point and there was certainly nothing the horses in the Bluegrass could have done in the last quarter of a mile to earn any kind of relevant figure using the final time\".
Exactly. So here\'s the question-- how did you decide that 3 of the 7 horses that ran in the Bluegrass WOULD HAVE run big new lifetime tops?
Robes wrote,
to adjust what number the horse would have earned
No question it was a tough race to do the figures, the only thing worse is to try and handicap the Derby off them.
The way I read the above comment is the numbers that were written in the program or on the form BEFORE the race were the ones they ended up using after the race because in both cases you are purely guessing.........
Posted by Eric on the Ragozin board:
\"Race 7 was adjusted for pace as was the last race on the card. We felt if we gave the horses in race 7 better numbers then we would have to give the horses in the BG better numbers also\".
To the degree that statement is decipherable, it looks like, as I originally said, that they tied together two (at least) \"S. Pace\" races, which is completely nuts-- the whole point, as I said before, is that you can\'t use the final time on either. They are completely independent events, each requiring their own adjustments.
Eric, when you get a chance, try to explain yourself, in detail. What\'s out there right now is ridiculous on the face of it. As are the numbers you gave out for the BG-- you really think it\'s right to throw out the final time AND assign 3 big tops in a 7 horse field?