Trainer Nick Zito had 5 horses in the 2005 Kentucky Derby. But this year? He\'ll have none. And trainer Bob Baffert this year? None also. I can\'t think of many Zito or Baffert colts that registered strongly on the radar screen this pre-Derby season.
On the other hand, 4 of the 5 colts trainer Todd Pletcher figures to enter this year look tough enough to be in the superfecta. If he doesn\'t get at least 2 of the them into the top four spots, I\'d be surprised. Gulp. 3 out of the top 4? Even more impressive is that he\'s got a solid shot to go 1-2 in the Kentucky Oaks too. I don\'t anticipate betting against him
JTChance
I read where and I qoute, \"Dominican was going to be using Real Quiets old stall and Baffert was going to be using Silver Charms.\"
When a guy is taking up living quarters in the barn that tells you how far and fast he has fallen.
Baffert is so lean these days. The other day at Bay Meadows he had an $8,000 claimer in the last that went off at 2-5. Didn\'t hit the board...
I\'ve seen projected Derby Off Odds on this board where Pletchers horses were no better than 10-1 up. Most Pletcher horses sitting on a top race are in the 9-5 range. Either everyone that has projected off odds is underestimating the Pletcher horses chances or they don\'t figure prominently in this Derby. Granted Bluegrass Cat was 30-1 plus coming out of his Bluegrass drubbing. This time however, you\'ve got three Pletchers coming in off wins and one coming in with the best company line that probably went X last race.
Dilemma! If the Pletchers do go off 10-1 plus do you take him and if you do which one do you take? Kinda like needle in a haystack aint it? Maybe, just maybe the smart play is to box all the Pletchers? Yeah, thats the ticket!
lol
CtC
JohnTChance Wrote:
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> Trainer Nick Zito had 5 horses in the 2005
> Kentucky Derby. But this year? He\'ll have none.
> And trainer Bob Baffert this year? None also. I
> can\'t think of many Zito or Baffert colts that
> registered strongly on the radar screen this
> pre-Derby season.
>
> On the other hand, 4 of the 5 colts trainer Todd
> Pletcher figures to enter this year look tough
> enough to be in the superfecta. If he doesn\'t get
> at least 2 of the them into the top four spots,
> I\'d be surprised. Gulp. 3 out of the top 4? Even
> more impressive is that he\'s got a solid shot to
> go 1-2 in the Kentucky Oaks too. I don\'t
> anticipate betting against him
>
> JTChance
You can bet your life there will be no 9-5 shots in this derby.The favorite may be in the 4-1, 9/2 range.
Mike
I\'m sure of that, but the fact is the Pletcher\'s are really not regarded as major players and thats why many are hazarding that they may fill out the Trifecta. Its odds and trainer betting related. Pletcher will get off the schnide one year and this may be the year, but he is goose-egg for 14 (Ben Jones he aint) and the days of mojo training won\'t last forever, so he better get down to it. Theres some talented horses in this race. If they fire TAP is gonna be lucky to pick up a check.
Velasquez\'s move off AGS is very telling in my opinion. In the Wood AGS had the opportunity to take that race, but AGS was running at 9 marks for the first time and ran wide enough to count 10. After the race Pletcher said \"He was there it was disappointing\" and then Velasquez jumps ship. I just think thats very telling. If I do throw AGS in it will only be for third and fourth and I\'ll probably leave him out of third.
Its likely Velasquez had the choice of Scat and opted for Circular Quay. Skipping the Wood for the extra rest is very interesting. My guess is TGraph LOVES that play. I think its chicken shit and if Velasquez beats me with that I\'ll just have to live with it. I\'ll include Quay no better than third.
The oddest horse out and maybe hardest horse to judge is Scat, but Scat has been slow and a grinder and thats not how the Derby is generally won. He may grind well, but better finishing horses are going to be on his flank with a quarter to go. I could see him getting a bigger piece if he gets the Bluegrass Cat preparation and some of the others get compromised. Still, can\'t see him any better than third without divine intervention and probably won\'t bet him that high. Still undetermined. This is all assumming that Prado had 1st call and with Velasquez\'s import to the stable tend to think Scat was his if Johnnie asked. Hell he\'d ridden him for every race until the Florida Derby.
The play in this Derby is beat Pletcher, but the Pletcher horse which I believe has the best chance is not even being talked about. The ones that are will have to have the very best medicine to be effective. But then again, I didn\'t like Bluegrass Cat a bit either, so maybe the Pletcher favs will run 1-2-3 at 10=1, 15..and 20-1. If you think hes a real trainer, you will get good odds. A trainer bettor can dream can\'t he?....lol
miff Wrote:
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> You can bet your life there will be no 9-5 shots
> in this derby.The favorite may be in the 4-1, 9/2
> range.
>
> Mike
Pletcher\'s calls Curlin the one to beat.
http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=38603
What dilemma?
Cowtown Cat is this year\'s version of Pollards Vision. Wonderkid Fernando earns future dividends from Todd Inc. as he uses him up ensuring a fast pace.
Florida champ Scat Daddy looks less like 06 champ Barbaro and more like 05 chump High Fly. At the eighth pole he\'ll be looking for a place to hidey hidey ho.
Any Given Saturday will be value and adds spice to the exotics. He\'ll be in full gear late for Garrett the great, who seems to possess a combination of the best riding skills of recent retirees Pat, Jerry, and Gary. Garrett\'s main problem is that he doesn\'t ride first call for Todd Inc.
Circular Quay, who, if he ran in the Wood and toyed with them as he\'s capable of, would be 3-1 in here. Instead, he\'s got an 8 week break that\'s being perceived as a negative, even though it\'s by design from the most successful operation in racing. Never started at over 8.5? I\'ll take a positive view as he\'s out of a Belmont winner that also sired one. Golden rail or no golden rail, his BC was better than it looked, and if the outside was tiring when the juve was run it was much better. Regretting not taking 9-1 in KDFW pool 3... hoping to get at least 7-1 on race day. The more people that disagree the better.
Quay is probably best out of Pletchers Big 3, but saying he\'s capable of running the Derby distance because his sire won the Belmont and sired a Belmont winner is optimistic. My recollection of Thunder Gulch\'s Belmont is that he beat Star Standard in 2.32 and nothing was in that race. Theres Belong to Me in that pedigree too. He may win, certainly won\'t say he can\'t win, but on pedigree hes no slam dunk to be running well at the end of the Derby. Pletcher has said that he believes he will be running closer to the pace fresh. I\'ve seen no evidence of that in his races. Its not clear you can take to the bank what Pletcher is saying. 8 weeks off before a grueling race is 8 weeks off before a grueling/testing race, even if really bred for it. If he gets beat by less than 10, he will better his last appearance at Churchill and I guess you could say Pletcher\'s modus operandi worked.
flushedstraight Wrote:
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> What dilemma?
>
> Cowtown Cat is this year\'s version of Pollards
> Vision. Wonderkid Fernando earns future dividends
> from Todd Inc. as he uses him up ensuring a fast
> pace.
>
> Florida champ Scat Daddy looks less like 06 champ
> Barbaro and more like 05 chump High Fly. At the
> eighth pole he\'ll be looking for a place to hidey
> hidey ho.
>
> Any Given Saturday will be value and adds spice to
> the exotics. He\'ll be in full gear late for
> Garrett the great, who seems to possess a
> combination of the best riding skills of recent
> retirees Pat, Jerry, and Gary. Garrett\'s main
> problem is that he doesn\'t ride first call for
> Todd Inc.
>
> Circular Quay, who, if he ran in the Wood and
> toyed with them as he\'s capable of, would be 3-1
> in here. Instead, he\'s got an 8 week break that\'s
> being perceived as a negative, even though it\'s by
> design from the most successful operation in
> racing. Never started at over 8.5? I\'ll take a
> positive view as he\'s out of a Belmont winner that
> also sired one. Golden rail or no golden rail, his
> BC was better than it looked, and if the outside
> was tiring when the juve was run it was much
> better. Regretting not taking 9-1 in KDFW pool
> 3... hoping to get at least 7-1 on race day. The
> more people that disagree the better.
Chuckles would be happiest if they never ran this race. If it was always next week, he could go on and on about it endlessly.
Have you folks seen Curlin\'s races? He may not win on May 5 because anything can happen in a horse race but, at 3-1 or so, he is CERTAINLY the horse to bet.
I like Street Sense for second. His race at CD last fall is impressive.
I Don\'t Know for third. He was also on third for Abbott & Costello.
I think off 3 big efforts, the last a neg, this horse is most CERTAINLY not the bet at 3-1.
Rich,
agree that 3/1 is nothing to grab at,but w/Curlin we can\'t really declare his #\'s are big efforts...for we don\'t know quite yet what a big effort is for HIM.
To compare his races w/other horses does him an injustice(till he reacts or goes forward).
But I would be very reluctant to bet him even to show up in exotics.
I just figure he either tears this field up or is distanced and guess which one usually prevails?!
Shuffle up and deal!
\"Garrett\'s main problem is that he doesn\'t ride first call for Todd Inc.\"
Main call or not, he fares very well in races in which both he and JV ride horses for Pletcher:
\"From the last 15 graded stakes races that Velazquez and Gomez have each ridden a Pletcher-trained mount, Gomez has won five times, while Velazquez has been shut out. Furthermore, Gomez has finished ahead of Velazquez in 13 of these 15 races, with the exceptions being the 2006 Travers, when Velazquez finished second aboard Bluegrass Cat while Gomez crossed the wire fifth on High Cotton, and the 2006 Matron, as the Velazquez-ridden Featherbed and the Gomez-ridden Octave finished in a dead-heat for the place.\"
http://www.stablepass.com/Show-Article?articleId=23
Lance,Great article. That really seems to smash/discredit the theory of many who feel that JV and Angel have inside information therfore they will go along with JV\'s decision to choose a certain mount. I was not familiar with that website so thanks for sharing.
Sand,
If you call sitting on the horses in the morning inside information, then Angel and Johnny V have it(Gomez wintered in Cali) Doesn\'t necessarily mean they are going to pick the right one, but an obvious edge.Selecting one or the other from this barn is kinda tough since they can all run.What we do not know is maybe soundness issues, et al that sways selection.
Mike
If indeed: \"Advantage Gomez. And it isn't even close.\" as that article states, then perhaps two brownie points should go to Gomez\' agent, Ron Anderson, who previously booked Jerry Bailey\'s mounts. Anderson doesn\'t sit on horses in the morning like Angel, but his handicapping apparently is influenced by the sheets. [The Rags, I think.]
JTC
not so...he\'s a TG man! they were talking about this with alan on racingjason last week.
While it is true that other members of the Anderson family use our data, Ron (as far as I know) does not. Alan and I have been trying to track down what was said on Jason\'s show to find out if somebody knows something we don\'t.
Perhaps Anderson does use ThoroGraph. However, FWIW, from the Rag web site:
February 07, 2004 - Eclipse Award winner Jerry Bailey called Anderson \"the best agent I\'ve ever had.\" \"Ron uses the Ragozin Numbers system better than anyone else,\" Bailey said. \"He can determine 95% of the time when a horse will or will not run his A race. He doesn\'t ask me a whole lot to choose between horses, and I like that. It\'s one of the things I don\'t want to get involved in.\"
JTC
TGJB,
Surprised that you do not know that Len Friedman has written/stated that Ron Anderson is a Sheets user.Anyway,I wonder how using the Sheets would work out if he booked mounts for Chantal Sutherland instead of Garrett Gomez.
Mike
There is no question that Ron uses Ragozin. Which was why it was news to us--as Alan said on the air-- that he was using our stuff. Two other members of his family use TG, which made it possible he was looking at ours as well-- we\'re trying to track it down.
I listened to the exchange last saturday, Jason was the one who initiated the Anderson thought, alan was neither confirming nor denying, if it was just a plug for TG - so be it. didn\'t mean to start a big deal over it...but Andersen is the best handicapper on the planet according to several sources.
http://www.racingjason.com/
previous week is archived. Nice show. I enjoy hearing Alan\'s thought process when analyzing his picks
I keep hearing that Scat is slow, and his numbers don\'t jump off the page, to be sure. But he\'s not that slow. He has, after all, run the two quickest times of any of the Derby runners at 1 1/8 (and by a fair amount). His time in the Fla. Derby was almost exactly the same as Barbaro\'s last year, with a bit quicker fractions (except the last). And, it\'s not like Gulf runners can\'t handle the Churchill surface (Monarchos, anyone?).
As to his getting trounced in the BCJ and the Holy Bull, it bears mentioning that SS and Nobiz were foaled in February and January respectively - while Scat (and Hard Spun) was a May foal. That\'s a big gap for juvies.
He\'s closed a torrid pace (FOY), and stalked a quick pace (FD). If he\'s going at double digits, he\'ll get at least some of my money.
shanahan Wrote:
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...but Andersen is the
> best handicapper on the planet according to
> several sources.
Debatable, but in assessing Anderson\'s handicapping ability aren\'t you missing the fact that he did not get to select which horse Gomez will ride in the Derby? Isn\'t the fact that he was served up \"leftovers\" closer to the truth? If the Gomez vs. Velasquez abbreviated study in fact does reflect a diffence in ability among those two jockeys and AGS does outfinish Circular Quay or even win are you really going to attribute the feat of selecting the Derby winner to Anderson\'s handicapping \"prowess\"? There would certainly be some credit to dispense in that scenario, but I wonder how many people would give a share to Anderson?
lol
CtC