I do this every year, so I will do it again. Here is my shot at a derby odds line. The math balances, with a 16% takeout.
Curlin 4 to 1
Street Sense 5 to 1
Circular Quay 10 to 1
Scat Daddy 10 to 1
No Biz Like Shobiz 10 to 1
Any Given Saturday 10 to 1
Hard Spun 12 to 1
Great Hunter 20 to 1
Dominican 25 to 1
Tiago 25 to 1
Cowtown Cat 25 to 1
Zanjero 25 to 1
Stormello 30 to 1
Sam P 30 to 1
Storm in May 50 to 1
Slew\'s Tizzy 50 to 1
Xchanger 50 to 1
Liquidity 50 to 1
Cobalt Bleu 50 to 1
Sedgefield 50 to 1
Jim, see the Pinnacle odds .... Nobiz 6-1, AGS 18-1. not much American money involved tho with the new laws. the prices will converge big time come Derby day.
Great job...........
I\'m thinking Street Sense ends up being favored at post time.
Good work Jimbo, although I think Street Sense will be favored.
The Derby Future Wager is always biased toward the big performance the weekend it closes, hence the heavy action on Curlin. With a little more time and perspective, I think the public will rightfully land on Street Sense.
CQ might go below 10-to-1, and Any Given Saturday should be quite a bit higher.
jimbo66 Wrote:
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> Curlin 4 to 1
> Street Sense 5 to 1
> Circular Quay 10 to 1
> Scat Daddy 10 to 1
> No Biz Like Shobiz 10 to 1
> Any Given Saturday 10 to 1
> Hard Spun 12 to 1
> Great Hunter 20 to 1
> Dominican 25 to 1
> Tiago 25 to 1
> Cowtown Cat 25 to 1
> Zanjero 25 to 1
> Stormello 30 to 1
> Sam P 30 to 1
> Storm in May 50 to 1
> Slew\'s Tizzy 50 to 1
> Xchanger 50 to 1
> Liquidity 50 to 1
> Cobalt Bleu 50 to 1
> Sedgefield 50 to 1
Respectfully disagree that AGS will be on sale for much higher than 10-1; think he\'s Derby Wise Guy Horse, version.2007.
Minimal (less than an hour) random internet search of racing news/opinion/blogs last night turned up numerous \"happy talk\" references to AGS. A couple of friends of mine have reported they\'ve heard people talk about how \"interesting\" his Wood looks, etc. Big work yesterday will only add fuel to the fire.
Admittedly this is all anecdotal evidence, but I would not be surprised to see him as low as 4th choice in the betting come 5/5.
Agree AGS\'s Wood was interesting, especially his last eighth in app. 14 seconds while sitting nicely just off dueling leaders most of the race.
Mike
AGS\'s claims to fame are a close second to a hot prospect that never beat anyone (Tiz Wonderful) and a very good second to a horse whose entire reputation is built upon a perfect trip in the BC Juvenile (SS). I was high on AGS also, but at this point given his own and SS\'s subsequent disappointing efforts, I\'m leaning towards betting against him if all the wise guys love him and take his price down a few notches.
Few things to consider if you want to adjust your line.
1) people tend to bet 2 dollars to win on every longshot....so, those 50-1 shots may be 38-1 or thereabouts. I\'d lower the extreme bombs just a little bit and raise the shorter prices a litlle bit.
2)Dominican may be lower due to the presense of Rafael Bejarano, a KY based rider. I remember being fascinated when Pat Day was always overbet in the Derby and i thought to myself that because of the worldwide betting pools, there would be no pat day bias, but there was. Maybe a little love for the locals.
3) Julien Leparoux. Not sure if he has a mount, but if he gets one, he\'ll be overbet (just a little bit) too.
4) Tiago. He\'ll get lots of press being Giacomo\'s brother...so, he could be a tick or 2 under your 25-1 quoted price.
Overall i think you did a very good job. Post positions will change things, but i don\'t see anything out of whack.
Well done.
imallin Wrote:
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> Few things to consider if you want to adjust your
> line.
>
> 1) people tend to bet 2 dollars to win on every
> longshot....so, those 50-1 shots may be 38-1 or
> thereabouts. I\'d lower the extreme bombs just a
> little bit and raise the shorter prices a litlle
> bit.
>
> 2)Dominican may be lower due to the presense of
> Rafael Bejarano, a KY based rider. I remember
> being fascinated when Pat Day was always overbet
> in the Derby and i thought to myself that because
> of the worldwide betting pools, there would be no
> pat day bias, but there was. Maybe a little love
> for the locals.
>
> 3) Julien Leparoux. Not sure if he has a mount,
> but if he gets one, he\'ll be overbet (just a
> little bit) too.
>
> 4) Tiago. He\'ll get lots of press being Giacomo\'s
> brother...so, he could be a tick or 2 under your
> 25-1 quoted price.
>
> Overall i think you did a very good job. Post
> positions will change things, but i don\'t see
> anything out of whack.
>
> Well done.
im, substitute Gomez, Prado, or Velazquez for Raf on a mount in the race this year, and I think the odds go lower. not sure he\'s that big a factor on the board just yet, at least not when the big guys show up. the odds on Dominican will be lower than 25-1 tho, mainly because he just won the Blue Grass. even Sinister Minister, who had less than a 0% chance of winning the Derby, took money after winning the Blue Grass over a surface that rendered the race inconsequential. funny how the Blue Grass went from meaning nothing because the surface was so speed favoring, to meaning nothing because the surface resembles turf not dirt, all in a single year.
I think Gomez is the most powerful current jock in terms of his mounts taking money because he is on.
Leparoux takes tons of $$$ at Turfway.
Note Leparoux has been taken off Asi Siempre. (a little late for those of us who bet her in the BC Distaff!)
I thought for the most part the odds were pretty good. However I did see a couple I think Players need to prepare for SHEET STICKER SHOCK.
The sheet lines look good and they are going to take some action.
There\'s some legit speed in here this year like always. Wonder which one of these three backs up first:
Stormello
Cowtown Cat
Cobalt Blue
I think Stormello off his winter preps in FLA and back class is the one who sticks around longest with a good chance to hang on to 3rd or 4th.
That said - I can honestly see the first half maile in :45 and change. Stalkers/Deep Closers are going to fare well this year.