I bought the Special and am intrigued by JB\'s comments about the Derby. The part about less contenders makes sense, but I am not sure what horses that will take money are not contenders.
In looking over the sheets for the 30 horses I will be the master of the obvious and say Pletcher has one helluva hand this year.
Any Given Saturday has the nice foundation at 2, plus the two pretty fast races in his last two preps. Considering he has only improved 1.5 points from his 2 year old top, and the sire stats say 3 points are normal for Distorted Humor, he could have a forward move in him. The 4 weeks are nice and Gomez is a good rider. Johnny V. is good, but he just didn\'t give this horse a good ride in the last two races this year. At 12 or 15 to 1, this horse looks like my horse to key, at least prior to PP draw.
Scat Daddy also looks tough. HE actually hasn\'t gotten faster from 2 to 3, which is a bad sign, but his last two races definitely make him a contender with the right trip. The lack of progression from 2 to 3 doesn\'t look out of line with his sire stats as Johannesburg seems to be getting precocious horses, albeit still better at routes, which seems to be contradictory, to a degree. The five weeks are good for this horse and he won\'t be one of the top 2 choices, so he is bettable as well. Must be used in exotics.
Street Sense is a tough call. His BC race is still the fastest race any of these horses have run and it seems there is some historical evidence to suggest that Nafzger\'s horses are not cranked in their last preps for the Derby, although the sample is awfully small. The Tampa comebacker was a great race, not a top, but a good springboard. The problem is that the Polycrap race is a throwout (IMHO). So, does now make the forward move he would have made had the poly race been on dirt, or did the huge 2 year old figure throw this horse for a loop. The deciding factor may be price, in that he seems likely to be either 1st or 2nd choice. Respect, but don\'t key him.
Curlin is a throwout for me, because of the lack of 2 year old foundation. His three figures this year are good enough to win the Derby, so you can\'t throw him out with confidence, but I believe in the 2 year old foundation (as compared to other \"jinx\'s\" like the BC winner and horses with \"too much rest\".
Circular Quay is also a contender. I don\'t like that Pletcher backed off with him, because it could hint at a problem, but if it isn\'t a sign of a problem, this horse has the 2 year old foundation, the breeding and the fastest 3 year old race of any of the contenders. As I said, Pletcher is loaded. I think he has the three most likely winners in AGS, Scat Daddy and this one.
Nobiz like Shobiz might finally step up, but I can\'t bet him at less than 10-1 (which he will likely be). 5 of his 6 races are the same figure and he hasn\'t gotten faster from 2 to 3. His sire stats say his offspring improve 4 points from 2 to 3 on average and this would make the jump up possible. However, single digit odds on a horse that needs to make a 2 point forward move to have a chance to win, are not appetizing to me.
Hard spun is the last of the \"contenders\" in my book, based on figures. He is fast, has had only a half point of progression from 2 to 3 (sire stats say 3 points is the norm for his sire). His races are spaced out and he will be rested coming into the race. Certainly must be used, but the indecision of his connections about what to do with him bothers me and gives me a bit of concern, which stops him from being my \"key\" in the race.
Thoughts?
\"Circular Quay is also a contender. I don\'t like that Pletcher backed off with him, because it could hint at a problem, but if it isn\'t a sign of a problem, this horse has the 2 year old foundation, the breeding and the fastest 3 year old race of any of the contenders. As I said, Pletcher is loaded. I think he has the three most likely winners in AGS, Scat Daddy and this one.\"
What about Cowtown Cat?
Its still quite clear that Johnny V is going to be upon what the stable perceives to be Pletcher\'s best horse. Todd will have some imput upon this of course, and Johnny V. Has bailed on AGS for the eight week layoff, distance virgined, Circular Quay. If I were contemplating the \"Milkshake Trifecta\" I\'d be a little concerned about that fact. Then again, maybe Quay wins with AGS second and Scat Daddy third. The trainer bettors can dream can\'t they?
Another angle is that ostensibly coming in with a loaded hand, this is the race where it all catches up to the stable and the best effort comes from the much overlooked and ocassionally misfigured Cowtown Cat.
Lexington Day wasn\'t kind to Todd. Lots of crowd money evaporated upon the Maximum Trainer...lol
CtC
Not sure which comments you are referring to as all I got in my package were the sheets. Would love to see them.
Anyway, I made an earlier post about liking Street Sense and after looking at the sheets I think he is the most likely winner. Hopefully he gets a good draw and a good ride. He\'ll be 5-1.
Curlin is fast but unseasoned. Hard Spun has a nice pattern, might be my saver. But I don\'t like the weak competition he has been facing. Circular Quay reeks of a reaction to his last effort. May recover in time for Belmont, but not Derby.
Scat Daddy is the only other contender but got his ass kicked at Churchill by SS.
So I\'ll bet SS to win.
\"Oh My...It\'s Street Sense gobbling up ground with Giant Strides...Calvin Borel is looking back for any hint of competition...Wow! Look at that final time of 2:00 flat and he did it in hand...IN HAND!!!!\"
That will be Durkin in two weeks...
Unlike Trevor Denman...TD will do this horse justice on the mic
Sorry MO, I was not clear.
I bought the special was one thought. Then the comments that I found interesting from JB were the ones he made in a post on this board about this derby having less contenders than most recent ones and there be several horses to play against that will take money.
There were no comments in the special, just figures.
As for Street Sense. You will be betting him off the BC Juvenile race only, IMO. Whose race in the Tampa Bay Derby did you like better, his or Any Given Saturday. Borel hugged the rail for every inch of the race, slipped through on th inside and should have won by 4. After Johnny V. got AGS 3 wide in the first turn and 4 wide in the second, he was digging back in and went by SS in the stride after the wire. SS race in the Bluegrass was worse than AGS race in the Wood as well. AGS has the nice \"2\" last year against a top quality horse and gets 4 weeks into this race. He runs a \"0\" and if GG gets him a trip, he can win at 12-1.
5-1 on SS is not value IMO.
I hear you on the Johnny V. comment, but after the borderline nightmare rides he gave Against the Saturday in his last two races, it makes logical sense for him to ride Circular Quay. I am not saying Pletcher thinks CQ is best, but on the numbers they are all close and I am not sure Pletcher knows which one is best. Johnny V has done well with CQ and poorly with AGS.
As for Cowtown Cat, I don\'t like him at all. His last race of \"2\" was the only race he has run that makes him even a marginal contender and ran that number with things his own way on the lead. I don\'t see the horse getting that kind of trip in the Derby and he is much slower than CQ. AGS and SD.
As for the trainer trifecta, in this case it wouldn\'t be bad to have. In most races, Pletcher is the favorite or 2nd choice and rarely is value in a big race. Any Given Saturday figures 12-1 or so based on what I have seen offshore, Circular Quay will be about 8-1 and Scat Daddy about 10-1. Those are fair prices for horses with good figures and patterns, with top connections.
Of the Team TAP runners, I might like CQ best based on his prior runs at CD,
including his 2YO finale where he had a rough trip and put up a decent TG #.
Miff has hinted that the 2 Pletcher absentees, CQ and SD, are not 100%
physically. Every time I read this I think about Pleasant Colony, who won 4
Grade 1s as a 3YO in 1981, and was not an overly sound specimen. I
will observe with interest how far and how fast the Pletcher \"absentees\"
work leading up to the Derby.
The whole idea of Pletcher having four entrants, two of which
might have physical issues, brings up once again the notion of having a Derby
AE or alternate list. What is to stop a trainer such as TAP from scratching
2 runners the morning of the Derby, thereby making for a shorter field and
excluding 2 runners who may have been physically ready for the race?
As I have said previously, I am studying much more diligently to try to figure
a scenario where Pletcher\'s big favorite in the Oaks, Rags to Riches (fastest
in the field and a 1/2 to Jazil to boot) can be defeated. Drug O\'Needle\'s
Mistical Plan looks interesting if you throw out her Poly races, but upon
reviewing the video of her FG Oaks win she seemed to be post and pace aided.
I really think the off odds on those horses will be substantially lower than what you are projecting. The alternative is that after Curlin, the second choice will be 8-1 plus.
Still finding the winner is what counts and odds aren\'t a factor in that. To my eye Circular Quay was second best at Churchill last and that could be the deciding factor. Still, hes had 2 winter breaks now and if he can find enough form to reverse that outcome it will be quite a feat. In his favor theres a whole lot coming in with very questionable foundation. Add Poly to the unraced equation and the outcome could be chaotic.
The head to head I\'m interested in is Nobiz and Scat Daddy. They\'ve run some very odd races and who can best the other in that confrontation may have a decent money chance.
Curlin and Circular Quay off tops. Half the field on vacation. Its gonna be interesting.
1/2 to Jazil?
Thats right, hes the one that was left standing in the Belmont.richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Of the Team TAP runners, I might like CQ best
> based on his prior runs at CD,
> including his 2YO finale where he had a rough trip
> and put up a decent TG #.
>
> Miff has hinted that the 2 Pletcher absentees, CQ
> and SD, are not 100%
> physically. Every time I read this I think about
> Pleasant Colony, who won 4
> Grade 1s as a 3YO in 1981, and was not an overly
> sound specimen. I
> will observe with interest how far and how fast
> the Pletcher \"absentees\"
> work leading up to the Derby.
>
> The whole idea of Pletcher having four entrants,
> two of which
> might have physical issues, brings up once again
> the notion of having a Derby
> AE or alternate list. What is to stop a trainer
> such as TAP from scratching
> 2 runners the morning of the Derby, thereby making
> for a shorter field and
> excluding 2 runners who may have been physically
> ready for the race?
>
> As I have said previously, I am studying much more
> diligently to try to figure
> a scenario where Pletcher\'s big favorite in the
> Oaks, Rags to Riches (fastest
> in the field and a 1/2 to Jazil to boot) can be
> defeated. Drug O\'Needle\'s
> Mistical Plan looks interesting if you throw out
> her Poly races, but upon
> reviewing the video of her FG Oaks win she seemed
> to be post and pace aided.
Jimbo,
What is your view of Great Hunter...
Thanks
Ronwar,
Before I looked at the T-Graph numbers, I was inclined to like Great Hunter, as I believe the Bluegrass is a throwout and he did get cut off. However, after looking at his number power, he looks too slow. The paired up \"4\'s\" from this year are way too slow, as you probably need a \"0\" to win this year (just a guess obviously).
He had a \"2\" last year in the BC Juvenile, which is his fastest race, but nothing else looks fast enough.
That said, I will use the horse a little bit underneath for a couple reasons. I do like the breeding for one. The other is a personal belief of mine (not substantiated by any detailed study!!!). On a couple of the bigger days of racing in the last few years, (A Cup day and Derby day) the T-Graph numbers have seemed light for California shippers. There is probably an old thread here where I asked Jerry about it after the BC. The two regsions where I sometimes look twice at the Tgraph figures are fast numbers from the Midlantic region that don\'t hold up when the horses ship and slower numbers from California where the horses ship and run faster. A lot of people would point to the medication issue to explain that first aberation (It seems that Mr. Magoo oversees the medication of horses in the Midlantic region).
Anyway, not meant to be controversial, so I apologize Jerry, since you just welcomed me back!
Jim
Jimbo,
I too bought the special. For the most part, I agree with your analysis. Here are some minor areas where we disagree --
1) TGI -- You need to be careful in how you use this. You use it for Nobiz and AGS to say they are due to improve. However, the TGI combines all three year old efforts.....not just the first third of the year. Three year olds improve quite a bit in the autumn. You should not expect the full 3 yo season improvement in the front part of the year. That being said, I still agree with your analysis on each horse. I realize I am prejudiced on Scat Daddy, but your use of Johannesburg\'s TGI is unfair to him because he is in Johannesburg\'s first crop. The 3 yo TGI for Johannesburg ONLY includes the first several months of the year so it should be a lot flatter than other TGIs. Need to wait a year or two before drawing conclusions.
2) Scat Daddy -- I do not see the lack of improvement at 3 which you have found. He had a 1.75 top as a 2 yo and an 0.75 top in March of his 3 yo season. While a full point may not be a lot of improvement, it IS improvement. Although I am prejudiced, I tend to view his pattern as indicating another forward move is possible.
3) Curlin -- I hate this horse and do not know what to do with him. I had thought before I bought the special that his Ark Derby was a big jump up. It was not and his line is relatively flat. He looks to me like a faster version of Nobiz and Hard Spun. I wish I could toss him, but I can\'t. I certainly will not key him. I am concerned that he will make the race unbettable. (n.b. Showing Up came into the Derby last year with no 2 year old foundation and only two weeks rest. He ran a respectable number. Curlin has things more his way than Showing Up...only problem is that there is zero value in Curlin\'s odds).
Overall, it does not seem like that great a betting race to me as the contenders are obvious and I do not see a lot of hidden value. If one of the top five contenders (the three top Pletchers you identify, Street Sense, and Curlin) ends up not being among the top five betting choices, then that horse may provide some value as I see very little separating the top five (and it is extremely hard to imagine the exacta not coming from those five).
Thanks for the clarification on the notes!
regarding the 5-1: That\'s what Barbaro paid last year as the betting favorite, I think.
Regarding the Tampa race, Carl said before the race he wasn\'t cranked up 100% and that AGS was his main foe. So I see the Tampa race as hitting a bullseye. Then he goes to Kee and regresses on polytrack, but still ran a better figure than last year at Kee. After his Kee race last year he puts up a huge figure at CD, in fact the fastest figure of this bunch.
So I view SS as an improving colt - in fact the 2 yo champ improving around Derby time - that\'s a rare occassion. 5-1 on the 2 yo champ and fastest horse in the race, in a race run only once a year under unique conditions - that IS value. I\'m going on record as NOT a Borel fan, BUT I get a better price with him than I do with JV or EP. And so for this one race on this one day I will take 5-1 and if and when he screws it up, I\'ll piss and moan for a half hour lamenting that in horse racing I am often dissapointed, but never surprised.
MO you never know whats going to happen in the world of horseracing, but this one horse marginalizes Pletchers entire stable. If he stays fit I\'m confident he accomplishes more this year than any horse in the TAP barn. There are those that say hes a \"one-timer\" and the truth is they are correct. But the two close finishes after that one time showed theres some horse there too. The other item is how the animal has been managed. When the race is over if he\'s not on top, others can point out the one time even if they don\'t have the winner. Hopefully he enters the gate on the 1st Saturday in May fully loaded for his A race. He may need it. Curlin is a horse that has given the appearance that he could be of the best kind.
Lastly, there is Hard Spun. He did not beat much in his last race but he looked to do it effortlessly. Then his stable gave him a winter break. Really had to figure why they felt the need to do so at this stage.
MO Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Thanks for the clarification on the notes!
>
> regarding the 5-1: That\'s what Barbaro paid last
> year as the betting favorite, I think.
>
> Regarding the Tampa race, Carl said before the
> race he wasn\'t cranked up 100% and that AGS was
> his main foe. So I see the Tampa race as hitting a
> bullseye. Then he goes to Kee and regresses on
> polytrack, but still ran a better figure than last
> year at Kee. After his Kee race last year he puts
> up a huge figure at CD, in fact the fastest figure
> of this bunch.
>
> So I view SS as an improving colt - in fact the 2
> yo champ improving around Derby time - that\'s a
> rare occassion. 5-1 on the 2 yo champ and fastest
> horse in the race, in a race run only once a year
> under unique conditions - that IS value. I\'m going
> on record as NOT a Borel fan, BUT I get a better
> price with him than I do with JV or EP. And so for
> this one race on this one day I will take 5-1 and
> if and when he screws it up, I\'ll piss and moan
> for a half hour lamenting that in horse racing I
> am often dissapointed, but never surprised.
Bee,
Clarification on what I posted re TAP\'S horses. Neither CQ or SD had reported soundness issues and I never wrote that.CQ had displayed a kinda lack of eneregy 10 days before the Wood and Pletcher felt CQ could not go into the Wood and come back with his best effort in the derby. This is a knock, an 8 weeks unplanned break into a 1 and 1/4 never having gone more than 1 and 1/16th. His figs speak to his talent but not the vicious run he has when right.He loves CD to boot.Tough call for me except he\'s short odds and there does not seem to be much early gas in this derby so deep closers may be compromised by race shape.The PP draw is always very important.
SD,third string in Feb (behind CQ and AGS) has shown resiliency and improved tactical speed in his last florida race and Prado fits like a glove on this horse.
ASG was all the rave after his first Tampa race reportedly coming out of the race better than going in.There was head scratching about who Johnny V would ride CQ or AGS,this in spite of Scat Daddys game score.Forward to the Wood where AGS sat perfectly off three vieing horses and tried hard but spit the bit very late. Walked off tired that day, off the three week break.He was floated very wide on the first turn and also lost some ground on the second.Strictly one to observe training up to the derby.Could he possibly be as knocked out as he appeared after the Wood?
Cowtown Cat is not impossible, imo.
My take on TAP\'s derby horses is simply that the Derby swagger of February is not the same today and history tells us that his horses usually do not come up big on the first saturday in May.Conflicted, because I\'m always rooting for Angel(after rooting for myself)
Mike
P.S. Be careful BEE,Rags to Riches Cali performances were monsterous and the figs do not do her justice,imo.If shes handle\'s the CD surface like Cali, she\'s a cinch.
MO...It\'s obvious you and I are on SS and won\'t budge. I\'ve got an envelope full of Ben Franklin\'s I\'ve been saving sitting in my credenza with his name on it and will NOT waiver on my top choice unless he gets terrible workout reports or looks seriously washy in the post parade. In that case I would have to rethink the race. Nafzger has won a Derby. Pletcher, Jones, O\'Neil and Asmussen HAVE NOT. Street Sense pummeled this group once already. Others HAVE NOT. AGS ran wider than SS in Tampa but SS was coming off a four month layoff and STILL BEAT AGS. Case CLOSED! SS is the best horse and on Beyers, TG #\'s and BRIS figures is fastest. Borel is a damn good jock and Churchill Downs is his home track. He will work out a trip.
I do not care what his odds are. I will still bet him at 5-2 or 3-1. If I lose I lose. We all, (no matter what some say) lose more than we win in this or any form of gambling.
What I have learned in betting 20 or so Derbies is once I zero in on a horse (and in this case - he just so happens to be the fastest horse), I plan everything around that one. Oaks/Derby double - wheeled pick 3\'s and pick 4\'s, and I bet the horse across the board as the place and show payouts are always respectable in the Derby. If I get to worried and look too long I can make a case for every rat in the race and with all the exotics available I go NUTS!
I would be willing to bet that the owners of TG will advise a play against SS. I can already hear the word \"Underlay.\" And that\'s fine...
But I don\'t bet odds most times. I bet horseflesh. Sometimes I win, sometimes a lot, but 70% of the times I lose...
I\'m hoping this year is a repeat of the 2001 Derby, when Monarchos bought me a new patio set, living room furniture, a moster TV, a Rolex watch and some other things I needed!
Good luck. We WILL prevail!
of the fast fillies in the oaks imo - rags to riches probably has the best shot to run a number . i like outsiders her majesty , and panty raid a little but she could be a lousy price - so i might toss her . 2nd leg horses incl - SS ,SD and although a little slow going in - RFD & LQDTY . maybe worth a dollar 2x4 ...
Close win against AGS and a loss to Dominican. If SS isn\'t 5-1 in this race with a 20 horse field I\'ll be stunned.
Curlin will be favored. Circular Quay, Scat Daddy and AGS will take money. Probably in that order.
Uncle Buck Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> MO...It\'s obvious you and I are on SS and won\'t
> budge. I\'ve got an envelope full of Ben Franklin\'s
> I\'ve been saving sitting in my credenza with his
> name on it and will NOT waiver on my top choice
> unless he gets terrible workout reports or looks
> seriously washy in the post parade. In that case I
> would have to rethink the race.
>
> I do not care what his odds are. I will still bet
> him at 5-2 or 3-1. If I lose I lose. We all, (no
> matter what some say) lose more than we win in
> this or any form of gambling.
>
> What I have learned in betting 20 or so Derbies is
> once I zero in on a horse (and in this case - he
> just so happens to be the fastest horse), I plan
> everything around that one. Oaks/Derby double -
> wheeled pick 3\'s and pick 4\'s, and I bet the horse
> across the board as the place and show payouts are
> always respectable in the Derby. If I get to
> worried and look too long I can make a case for
> every rat in the race and with all the exotics
> available I go NUTS!
>
> I would be willing to bet that the owners of TG
> will advise a play against SS. I can already hear
> the word \"Underlay.\" And that\'s fine...
>
> But I don\'t bet odds most times. I bet horseflesh.
> Sometimes I win, sometimes a lot, but 70% of the
> times I lose...
>
> I\'m hoping this year is a repeat of the 2001
> Derby, when Monarchos bought me a new patio set,
> living room furniture, a moster TV, a Rolex watch
> and some other things I needed!
>
> Good luck. We WILL prevail!
Buck,
Do not fret, you will get more than 5-2 on SS for all those Franklin\'s.Whats a moster TV?
Mike
Oaks looks like good betting race underneath Rags to Riches. I like Mystical Plan and High Heels. Got to wonder what happened to Appealing Zophie last time out.....
Typo Miff:-) It was supposed to say \"Monster\" TV - as in Sony Wega...I highly recommend one!
Buck, I prefer another Dali...............
Hey I got 6-1 and Breakage....on Barbaro. SNS was the favorite at 7-2 or 9-2.
NCT
Not bad, but you were betting the favorite until the gates popped. Sweetnorthernsaint went off at about 5.5 to 1.
In the next race Sweetnorthernsaint was about 8.5 to 1, Bernardini about 13-1 and Hemingways Key about 30-1. The favorite of course had an eight week layoff between his two Florida races and a five week layoff before the Kentucky Derby. He had to come back in two weeks after running hard in Kentucky and the rest is history. There are those that believe the trainers should dictate the spacing of the Triple Crown events. If Trainers are allowed to do so the Triple Crown will never have firm dates. The Triple Crown races will alter upon the whims of the Trainers and those that call themselves Trainers. The day may come when the Derby will be run in May, The Preakness in June and the Belmont on Travers Day. A Championship season will involve four races on Poly Turf. Still, for some horses 8 weeks won\'t be enough rest and the type of horse needing that much time off will continue to come unglued.
I don\'t think so. Better for the brittle to break down. Darwin\'s Theory of Evolution. That is of course, unless you can keep your attention span upon a Triple Crown that lasts longer than the baseball season in a campaign of four starts.
NoCarolinaTony Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Hey I got 6-1 and Breakage....on Barbaro. SNS was
> the favorite at 7-2 or 9-2.
>
> NCT
Yep. Barbaro went off at 6.10 and SNS was post time fav at 5.50.
CtC:
I enjoy your take on the future of the Triple Crown. Here\'s mine:
Almost inevitable that Churchill will drink the Poly Kool Aid and by 2010 we
will have our first Poly Ky Derby.
If Magna/Stronach is still involved in Racing, Frankstro will (kind of as
retribution against Maryland politicians who have been rather unkind to him)
take the Preakness away from Pimlico and run it at another Magna facility ie
Santa Anita or Gulfstream or maybe even Remington or Lone Star. Maybe he will
run the Preakness at a different venue each year, kind of like a floating crap
game.
The powers that be in NY, after years of Belmonts with small fields and a
diminishing live gate on Belmont Day, will decide to run the race at 1-1/2 miles
on the turf.
Pimlico and Frank go broke... Arlington moves the American Derby back to the main track and the new TC is born.
Ky Derby 10f on dirt 1st Saturday in May
Belmont 12f on dirt 5 weeks later
American Derby 9.5f on poly 6 weeks later
Then you\'ve got 5 weeks to the Travers to make it a grand slam.
I\'m intrigued by Nobiz, but Jimbo66\'s comment about not taking single-digit odds on a horse needing to improve 2 points to compete for the win struck a chord, so I thought I\'d go to the TG Derby archives to seem how unlikely a 2-point improvement is. I found only 8 in a sample of 169 horses. They were (largest improvement first):
Barbaro
Giacomo
Proud Citizen
Victory Gallop
Silver Charm
China Visit (only one prior fig, earned at Nad Al Sheba)
Aptitude
Closing Argument
In my nonsystematic search for common threads, I found the following:
All (except for China Visit) either ran a new top or paired an old one in their last Derby prep.
All had three or fewer races at 3 going into the Derby.
All (except Aptitude, for whom path info was not provided) ran in the 3 path or wider on both turns in the Derby.
I was also curious about horses (like Street Sense) who established their pre-Derby tops at age 2. I found only the following four:
Outtta Here ran a 2.75 at 2, ran an 8.25 at Nad Al Sheba in his only pre-Derby start at 3, and ran a 3.25 in the Derby.
Master David ran a 2 as a 2yo, did no better than a 4 prior to the Derby as a 3yo, and ran a 6.5 in the Derby.
Captain Steve ran a 3.75 as a 2yo, did no better than a 5.25 prior to the Derby as a 3yo, and ran an 8 in the Derby.
Nationalore ran an 8 as a 2yo, did no better than a 9 prior to the Derby as a 3yo, and ran a 13.75 in the Derby.
Bit Player,
Very nice chunk of info.In past I would start to steam when stuff like this surfaced.In poker this is called a \"tell\".
Now these guys know what we know,but when it comes to betting they will be compelled to abandon your history lesson.
Not me...thanx for putting me back on track...you get a chapter in my book named after you.