a horse I find interesting is sacrifice bunt. then I see he\'s a storm cat, so that blows me right out of the water based on my previous post on storm cat. the horses he\'s beaten are not digraced, nor has he been by those who have conquered him - cowtown, reppo, dominican...
6:1 ML, my guess is he\'ll drift up ( a perfect drift?) to 10:1...and be a nice key over and under.
I looked very closely at this cat. He certainly faced better, so in a way this is a drop. That said, he is very one-paced. He has one little explosive move and that\'s it, then he just runs on and on. If they had a 2 mile grass race, I might consider him, but I was left wanting to be impressed (b/c this is such a weak field and I love Mott), but I just wasn\'t. There\'s no way I\'d take him at any less than 12-1, and I think he\'ll be much lower than that. Belgravia always struck me as a one-turn type who might like Belmont more, but I know he has some class, so he wouldn\'t surprise me, though the price does not entice.
Soaring By seems like a complete stand-out to me;I think he is going to blow through his best number today, and we may even see him in the Derby -- he strikes me as a rapidly improving sort. And you know Pletcher is Pletcher again. Anything over 3-1 is practically theft.
As far as the others, Trust Your Luck is a nice sort, but I\'m not sure he\'s fast enough. Joe Got Even was only Ok in that Turfway Stakes, and Forty Grams didn\'t impress me at Sunland. Good Luck!
Suppose Sacrifice Bunt could do it with as fickle as the track was last weekend.
Odd they slowed the pace down that much last week and yet the two closers still got up. It could be that those two were head and shoulders above the pace horses. It could also be the pace was closer to legit.
Fair track, they\'d have their hands full with Forty Grams. Not sure on this track, so will watch.
Maybe Poly-Scam Tony will take another stab here.
:)
This track,
shanahan Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> a horse I find interesting is sacrifice bunt.
> then I see he\'s a storm cat, so that blows me
> right out of the water based on my previous post
> on storm cat. the horses he\'s beaten are not
> digraced, nor has he been by those who have
> conquered him - cowtown, reppo, dominican...
>
> 6:1 ML, my guess is he\'ll drift up ( a perfect
> drift?) to 10:1...and be a nice key over and
> under.
Chuck said:
\"Odd they slowed the pace down that much last week and yet the two closers still got up. It could be that those two were head and shoulders above the pace horses. It could also be the pace was closer to legit.\"
Chuck,
The BG has been discussed and written about throughout the game. Not one opinion was that the \"pace was closer to legit\". I\'ll assume you are just trying to be controversial, because from your postings it is clear you know better.It was the slowest pace in the modern history of the BG and 30 minutes prior a horse ran app 1.21+ for 7f, so the surface was not slow.
I agree that on a normal track,Forty Grams would have a substanial tactical edge.
Mike
Forty Grams - horrible last, drifting out while stopping at 4-5. cuts back a bit though, and picks up Gomez. 1 hole. trip play contender with a run in the \'4-5\' range.
Boogie - don\'t know really. the \'9\' runs last year aren\'t bad.
Soaring By - throw out the LaDerby. last was a decent \'4.75\', expecting similar today on three weeks.
Joe Got Even - showed nice poly form as a 2 yr old, pairing up \'6.5\' runs. tough 4w trip last, flattened out late ag a solid Hard Spun. gets four weeks, cuts back a bit, and should get a decent trip under Jara from post 4. looking for a solid run at decent odds.
Slew Tiz - \'8.5\' top on poly. decent fig last in the LaDerby. needs another three point move here. not for me.
Trust - looks a bit slow.
Belgravia - \'6.5\' top on poly as a 2 yr old. has every right to run big here trying to get Derby money.
Sacrifice Bunt - tough call on two weeks rest. looking for a \'5\' or so, but ground loss is an issue.
Starbase - has some nice 2 yr old figures, but has struggled this year. tough post.
...
let\'s see how the board looks, but i think it\'s Joe Got Even and Belgravia for me.
i like \'joe in this one - not sure how to read forty grams and slew\'s tizzy\'s last #\'s ... sticky race to handicap imo ...
miff, I\'m certainly not going to listen to others on the Bluegrass fractions at this point. I flat out don\'t believe any of them and am not trying to be controversial.
Theres no way a horse can slow fractions down to .52 and 1.16.3 on a fast track and not hang on. I can\'t help it if others think Teuflesberg is a light hearted horse. I think hes improving and has about the best foundation of any horse slated to start in the Derby.
I don\'t want to hear one more word about a throttled pace unless its from Prado\'s mouth and if it does come from there hes pulling a \"Bush\" on you.
Poly has a very interesting quality being petroleum bound. Theres no real opportunity for the \"in-contact\" substance to hold moisture. That track at Keeneland is a case study in a bad experiment. Look at the times closely from there. Its a transformer surface. The come home times are very difficult to synthesize. Is it all pace? Is it some track inconsistency? Is there timing inconsistency? Something is very wrong there. Not being able to rely upon time, I\'m going with what can be observed. I really dont care if I\'m alone on it. All that matters is being correct upon it.
CtC
miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuck said:
>
>
> \"Odd they slowed the pace down that much last week
> and yet the two closers still got up. It could be
> that those two were head and shoulders above the
> pace horses. It could also be the pace was closer
> to legit.\"
>
>
> Chuck,
>
> The BG has been discussed and written about
> throughout the game. Not one opinion was that the
> \"pace was closer to legit\". I\'ll assume you are
> just trying to be controversial, because from your
> postings it is clear you know better.It was the
> slowest pace in the modern history of the BG and
> 30 minutes prior a horse ran app 1.21+ for 7f, so
> the surface was not slow.
>
> I agree that on a normal track,Forty Grams would
> have a substanial tactical edge.
>
>
> Mike
40 Grams and CtC, you could not be more wrong.................
Chuckles:
Interesting that you say that Teuflesberg has the best \"foundation\" in the
race (and foundation is important for the Derby). Indeed he has been entered
almost every time he has stuck his neck out of his stall.
There are a lot of \"nice\" aspects to this story-- trainer Sanders was a long
time assistant to Zito, trainer Sanders galloped Teufel\'s dam, they paid $9K
for him, etc, but I can\'t help but think that a more seasoned trainer would have
brought this need the lead type into the Derby more lightly raced.
I stil contend that Hard Spun would have been in front of this colt every
step of the glacially paced BG
Richie, I hope you got to read the post Jerry deleted. It was humorous and true, but to address your point. Der Teufle has started 15 times. There was a day when most of the field had about 15 starts pre Derby. But what happened is that the industry bred ouchy horses to ouchy horses and trainers compounded the ouch by pushing the horses for huge efforts,with drugs in many cases. Der Teufle on the other hand did not start out with Pletcher like numbers. He worked up to them. Der Teufle has run both Street Sense and Scat Daddy to their limits. He beat Hard Spun. He just ran against a monumental bias but folks want to discount it upon perceived pace. Has pace been an issue for this horse in the past against good ones?
One other item. This horse\'s figures have been misjudged. His Derby success will depend upon the track and the entries. This year, Petcher will bring a gaggle, but not many with legitimate speed, with the possible exception of a maturing Cowtown Cat. But in this milieu, you have horses coming in on five, six, eight weeks without a start. You have others without a start at 2 or where the Derby will be their third start. You have a decided lack of seasoning with most, but in Der Teufle you have a horse that just ran one of his best races against a decidely strong bias and without an ability to factor the speed of the track, who can say his race was not best?
A few of the others are faster, but Der Teufle is 80-1 and that does not make sense this year.
Regarding Hard Spun, yes he may have been able to put a head in front of Der Teufle, but he wouldn\'t have been far in front.
CtC
Obviously, his chances depend upon richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuckles:
>
> Interesting that you say that Teuflesberg has
> the best \"foundation\" in the
> race (and foundation is important for the Derby).
> Indeed he has been entered
> almost every time he has stuck his neck out of his
> stall.
>
> There are a lot of \"nice\" aspects to this
> story-- trainer Sanders was a long
> time assistant to Zito, trainer Sanders galloped
> Teufel\'s dam, they paid $9K
> for him, etc, but I can\'t help but think that a
> more seasoned trainer would have
> brought this need the lead type into the Derby
> more lightly raced.
>
> I stil contend that Hard Spun would have been in
> front of this colt every
> step of the glacially paced BG
Another poly anomoly...sheesh...wouldn\'t have had that with a 10,000 bankroll. I can hear Lukas now on Starbase..\"We\'ll head over there and see if we can\'t sneak in to the Derby. He\'s improving. He\'s getting me up early in the morning.\"
Buried competitive figure last out, forward moving pattern, good spacing, experience on the polytrack and 40-1. Not at all an impossible play.
Frank
Sounds like you, along with Alan, hit it. I used him, but only in exotic boxes.
Nope.
It was a good result for me. Had it not been, after reviewing the race and final odds, I would have been kicking myself.
Frank
Frank Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Buried competitive figure last out, forward moving
> pattern, good spacing, experience on the polytrack
> and 40-1. Not at all an impossible play.
>
> Frank
a buried figure while stopping over a dirt surface that had been kind to speed ..... i couldn\'t use it here. i looked at the poly pattern - \'12.5\' to \'8.5\' to ?? in four months ?? i couldn\'t write in the required \'3\' or \'4\'. i\'m glad someone did tho. sometimes you just have to go with the numbers. nice hit.
Great Play Frank, especially on that WIRE TO WIRE win on Poly.
All the NON POLY type are back scratching their heads trying to figure it out. CtC was heard saying, but I thought they always closed from off the pace. MIff is saying I can\'t bet this crap once again.....
NC Tony
Tony,
Yeah, blinks off and then wired,that figures,typical ridiculous poly result.Whats with everyone staying off the inside,what an abortion that Kee surface is.
TG fig wise, he had a live bomb shot,imo.
Mike
Miff,
I couldn\'t make it to Lexington this weekend. Got a scare with my father going into the Hospital overnight Friday, so all plans were cancelled. Did follow along however, and if you had been following all week, the track was playing kinder to speed. Those who I know in Lex, are attributing this change to the weather, (sounds like dirt). The heat vs the extreme cold the week before, played a signifant role in this. Yes they do run off the rail there almost the 3 path on the backside. Their meet is really too short and in transitional weather, to really get a gauge on how this surface really plays out. You would need a meet of 8-12 weeks to get a better feel for that.
Anyway, do not - not bet a horse because they ran on Poly. Many off poly improve next start. See CD opening Saturday.
NC Tony
Tony,
Buddy,hope dad is ok, nothing worse than family illness, unfortunately I know.
Why do all the jocks seem to stay off the inside even when they can easily drop over to the fence? Is the rail always bad there? I have noticed several more wires.I follow but don\'t gamble poly. I like the angle of disregarding bad/off poly attempts when the scene switches to CD.
I have not downgraded any BG runners but I do wonder if Dominican is poly-great or a new horse without his chops.
Mike
lol
Interesting you reappear post race.
FYI the Tiznow was intriguing on Figs and Breeding and the track did change remarkably from a week prior and that is the root of the concern. It is far too fickle a surface. It appears they did something to make it more fair after an extended bias against speed. TGraph any insight upon that?
P.S. Hope your Dad is o.k. A good Derby horse is like training a good two year old. It\'ll help his recovery.
NoCarolinaTony Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Great Play Frank, especially on that WIRE TO WIRE
> win on Poly.
>
> All the NON POLY type are back scratching their
> heads trying to figure it out. CtC was heard
> saying, but I thought they always closed from off
> the pace. MIff is saying I can\'t bet this crap
> once again.....
>
> NC Tony