Is there such a thing as a pseudo or false figure acquired by running a race such as the Breeders Cup last year where a runners time is greatly enhanced by running on the prefered path or alleged \"golden rail.\" I guess you see this situation with sloppy tracks or off turf courses where a horse runs a huge # but it is only looked at in the context of the conditions run on.
My point being, is it possible SS\'s BC figure possibly inflated by running on the rail that day? If the -2 for the BC is solid, it must be a negative that SS is nowhere near his 2yo top?? In his 2 races since the BC,5 horses have been within a length or so of this guy at the finish line.
Everyone is quick to throw a race out or \"draw a line through it\" from time to time for various reasons. Am I crazy for wanting to draw a line through the BC-2.Every other race in this horses career looks very average. Tell me I\'m crazy.
Have always thought that Nafzger would try to conserve Street Sense in his 3YO
races leading up to the Derby by Yums.
Draw a line through the BC if you wish, and don\'t forget the jinx, but maybe you
want to look at Unbridled\'s TG in the archive. Unbridled moved forward very
nicely off a 3rd place finish in the BG to win the Derby.
Would be easier to draw the line through the big 2YO top if it was run somewhere
other than CD.
Sand,
I would not call the figure false but you must question the overall conditions in which it was earned.Without question, I saw a biased rail on BC day at CD. Don\'t know how TG saw it but Len Friedman at Rags said he did not see any rail bias after looking at his figs.I believe TG also uses figs/computer program to flag biases,I think there are other methods equally telling.
I have done lots of research on big figs and the conditions in which they were earned, i.e biases, pace/race shape/perfect trips,track conditions and patterns.While very inconclusive, I did see that many big figs were not repeated in different overall conditions from the prior race.Many fig users automatically call it bounce when a horse regresses but I think bounce is correct only some of time and a host of other reasons also cause figure regression.
If you honestly feel a horse only ran his eyeballs out because of conditions then you should subjectively downgrade the performance, not the figure.
Mike
Street Cry freaked in the Foster at CD, maybe it\'s in the bloodline. Even if you take 3 pts off SS\'s BC, he ran a one 6 months prior during a growth stage, and Carl hasn\'t let him run yet this year. The two prep issue was discussed in depth on this board, you can draw your own conclusions.
SS scares me, can\'t toss him, especially considering he\'s not the fave. Odds will be fair as 2nd choice judging by pool 3, but he\'ll be a saver not a key There already looks to be a few overlays in here too juicy to pass up. Calvin moving too late or getting bottled up or going too wide wouldn\'t be a shocker, but an easy win wouldn\'t be either. Having a 15-1 key get beat by SS without having at least the ex & tri would really, really, be not good.
I\'m beginning to belive a growing consensus that SS is going to be hard to use and hard to throw out ... imo - SS probably would need some time or a couple races before geting back .
So far as an Oaks / Derby DD goes , horses that come on board imo are :
Her Majesty , Panty Raid / Reporting For Duty , Colbalt Blue , Street Sense
As soon as SS crossed the line at the BC, i rejoyced with my hands over my head and shouted, \"i can\'t wait till Derby day when this false line is exposed\"
Was i wrong to rejoyce in celebration?
Maybe the Blue Grass being a race that will be looked at somewhat negatively by the mass media, SS\'s price won\'t be as short as originally thought.
I think the line looks better than it really was, but if someone told me now that i had to either bet Curlin or SS, i\'d choose SS to wager on.
\"If you honestly feel a horse only ran his eyeballs out because of conditions then you should subjectively downgrade the performance, not the figure.\"
I don\'t follow that. Dirt Racing, (Please note that I said Dirt Racing intending to exclude Poly-Scam racing), requires using numbers. An effort can be downgraded, but you sure better put a number on that downgrade. If one can\'t knock a point off or add a point on or factor weight or ground loss or track bias and put an educated changed number upon that performance you\'re gonna be confused in some races. Theres nothing worse than looking at numbers everyone says are fast, but not modifying them down upon the evidence one ascertains to clearly indicate that those horses are not as fast as others say and sometimes not as fast as others in the race.
miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Sand,
>
> I would not call the figure false but you must
> question the overall conditions in which it was
> earned.Without question, I saw a biased rail on BC
> day at CD. Don\'t know how TG saw it but Len
> Friedman at Rags said he did not see any rail bias
> after looking at his figs.I believe TG also uses
> figs/computer program to flag biases,I think there
> are other methods equally telling.
>
> I have done lots of research on big figs and the
> conditions in which they were earned, i.e biases,
> pace/race shape/perfect trips,track conditions and
> patterns.While very inconclusive, I did see that
> many big figs were not repeated in different
> overall conditions from the prior race.Many fig
> users automatically call it bounce when a horse
> regresses but I think bounce is correct only some
> of time and a host of other reasons also cause
> figure regression.
>
> If you honestly feel a horse only ran his eyeballs
> out because of conditions then you should
> subjectively downgrade the performance, not the
> figure.
>
>
> Mike
Chuck
One point? two points? too subjective. I just know the race was not as good as the figure because of how it was earned.
Mike
Keep drinking the cool aid guys.....
NC Tony
A seven point top into negative territory as a two year old on November 4th.
No recorded works until February.
Nine works needed leading up to the TB Derby.
Stretch antics in the Blue Grass not exhibited in any prior races.
Can the negative 2 be viewed as anything other than solid and a knockout race?
I believe that favorable biases often contribute to figures that are unlikely to be duplicated in the future \"all else being equal\".
In the case of Street Sense, there are several things to consider about that figure.
IMO, his BC Juvenile figure was earned under ideal conditions. Not only was he on what appeared to be the most favorable rail path, he also benefitted from a lively pace in front of him while he sat inside behind horses. Most of his reputation is based on that one race. People are betting him on the assumption that he can duplicate or exceed it as a 3YO. To me, that kind of thing is typically a huge betting negative.
On the flip side, his first two races as a 3YO have been OK (with the BG being such a boat race it\'s hard to decipher). So IMO, just because his reputation as a 2YO was probably inflated, that does not mean he can\'t win based on what he\'s shown to date. He might get back to that figure or better on development but not on a pair if you know what I mean (the figures will pair but the performances will not be equal)
Very well said.
>Can the negative 2 be viewed as anything other than solid and a knockout race?
Yes, its called an Isolated Top.
The previous largest winning margin in the BC Juvenile was 5 lengths.3 horses having won by five,Arazi is one. SS doubled that.Below are the lengths beaten by SS.
Cirq. Q 10
Great Hunter 12
Scat 15
Stormella 16
King Roxy 38
Teuflesburg 48
SS wasn\'t that much faster than these horses before the BC and he certainly not that much faster than these horses after (2) 3YO races.
Fkach,Excellent summarization.
Silver,
....or a bias aided isolated top. After his first two starts in 07, there is nothing SS has done to suggest that he is anything special or sitting on an explosive derby performance.He\'s one of many with a legit shot.
Mike
Sandreadis Wrote:
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> SS wasn\'t that much faster than these horses
> before the BC and he certainly not that much
> faster than these horses after (2) 3YO races.
While that is the truth, put that in perspective of this trainer\'s style. He points to big races... can this be disputed? This is what he did when he won the derby and the travers and the BC classic. Isolated tops are his trademark, this is not TAP or Frankel. I\'d give SS at least a 20% chance of running a negative # with a clean trip. It\'s not like he came back this year looking like First Samarai, neither of his races were easy.
Kentucky Derby,clean trips,closers and negative numbers, that\'s asking a lot. I will look at Nafzger\'s training methodology but I don\'t know how relevant Unbridled\'s handling was 17 years ago.Times have changed.
Please Miff between you and CtC you guys are making a mess of this thing. Both of you should take a break for a couple of days go back and listen to Jerry\'s Introduction Seminar on the Home Page and regroup. Guys like NCTony and myself are actually trying to make some salient points help some people and between the two of you people are probably becoming totally lost.
Bias Aided Isolated Tops
Slow Pace Adjusted Final Figures
Explosion Lines
0-2-X Angles
Poly-to-Dirt Plays
To Fast To Soon Reads
Nothing short of being Karnac the Magnificent will anybody know what to think come Derby Day.
Other than Jerry of course.
Silver,
Firstly, shove your attitude, I did not address you that way. Secondly, long before you ever heard of Thorograph I was using it and know the intro well.
Mike
Mike,
Point taken on the attitude. I am going to listen to the Intro again tonight which part of it should I expect to hear Jerry tell me about speed bias or good rail bias.
I know they give out a mark for dead rail, what is the mark for good rail.
The numbers for the 06 BC are still available on this site. Suggest everyone look at ALL the horses that ran on the rail (1w, upper left).
Silver,
You know there is no TG designation for speed bias or good rail bias therfore they do not exist in racing?.It was my imagination that the recently concluded Aqu inner meet featured an intense rail and speed bias most of the meet. It was just a coincidence that horses racing inside and on the lead/up close won app 75% of the races.
Mike
TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The numbers for the 06 BC are still available on
> this site. Suggest everyone look at ALL the horses
> that ran on the rail (1w, upper left).
Looking at the races in order, which I assume is important if we split the variant or split the card on bias (if that is done?)....
Dreaming of Anna and Street Sense ran GIANT, unpredictable tops with rail trips.
Thor\'s Echo, although breaking from the 1 post, only got a 1/2 rail trip at best, although he moved forward 2 points to a giant number (minus 5). In that same race, Friendly Island got the rail trip and matched his top of minus 1.
Round Pond won the Distaff with rail trip, matching her top of 1.
The rail did not appear to affect the Classic.
I was at Churchill that day, and I observed significant track work going on as the day went on and people were complaining about the perceived bias.
Thoughts?
Thor\'s Echo was in the 3 path.
Look at the other horses that were on the rail-- including the early races.
Having viewed the 2006 CD Breeders Cup Card and reviewed the results... decided to check the hosts suggestion to look at the TGraph Archive.
Certainly no inside Bias apparent there.
In 1990 Nafzgers Unbridled ran a four point top in the Derby. He looks to have pointed him for that race. These are different days and patterns look different. Street Sense was running 5\'s and 6\'s when Unbridled was running 14\'s and 20\'s, but does anyone think Nafzger is less of a Horseman now than in 1991?
Letting the days go by/why is Lukas not around?
Letting the days go by/running horses that are sound
Into the blue again/after the moneys gone
Once in a lifetime/horses running over ground?
Same as it ever was....Same as it...ever was. Same as it ever...was. Same as...it ever was.
TGJB Wrote:
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> Thor\'s Echo was in the 3 path.
>
> Look at the other horses that were on the rail--
> including the early races.
Obviously he does not want to run again.
Curlin figures to be favored at this point.
I\'m not sure which horse will be second choice. Maybe Circular Quay? Could Scat Daddy, AGS and Nobiz round out the top five betting interests?
Other men see things that are and ask \"why\". I see things that aren\'t and ask \"why not\".
Paraphrasing a great american. No, I\'m not referring to TGJB, Silver Charm or NC Tony.
By the way Silver, I really didn\'t think you were being critical. You\'re too great of an American for that.
Tony, when my Teuflesberg is done with your Dominican, both you and your horse are going to feel like Alberto Speedy Gonzalez still maintaining his reputation is intact after spending a couple days with the Senate. Don\'t worry, I won\'t hound you too hard post race. Just only when you lie, which fortunately for you is not as often as Alberto. :)
big18741 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> A seven point top into negative territory as a two
> year old on November 4th.
>
> No recorded works until February.
>
> Nine works needed leading up to the TB Derby.
>
> Stretch antics in the Blue Grass not exhibited in
> any prior races.
>
> Can the negative 2 be viewed as anything other
> than solid and a knockout race?
I disagree with Anna #\'s being an unpredictable giant.Both races prior were
turf races.Her #\'s were 8 1/4 and 7 1/4.Maybe it\'s just me,but I\'ve noticed
Turf #\'s are just a couple points slower on average.Without looking,if someone
asked you what English Channels\' #\'s were like,would you say within reason
he\'s run negative #\'s? I\'d say yes!Well my friend,we\'d both be wrong.
Annas\' race that day makes perfect sense if you adjust the turf to dirt.
Thor was 3w in his race and moved up 2 1/2 points only.I\'ve seen horses
late in the year make big leaps forward.Call it a growth spurt,natural maturation,
whatever you like.The bottom line is it happens.Not necessarily to all,but it
does happen.
As far as SS is concerned is it just coincidence that the top 3 finishers in the
BC also finished top 3 in the race just prior at Keeneland and all three moved
up at least 4 points from that effort.All the recent talk about Poly and how it\'s
similar to Turf racing suggests the Keeneland race could very well have been
bigger than we know.Maybe 2 points?
CtC,
For those inquiring minds out there, Tuefelsberg in German means \"Devil Mountain\".
Now for the record, I have not compiled a Derby betting strategy yet. I always wait for PP\'s to be drawn. I do eliminate runners between now and then. I think those that underestimate the effort (albeit the last 3Furlongs) and still outrun or out close SS with some road rage going on down inside, you should not shortchange the horses heart. It was a paceless race with only one speed horse, and apparently only one jockey thinking his way through the race.
I have a small place in my heart for TBerg when I had him to Win in one of those paceless Ark Races. I think Dominican is proving to be a real runner, as has Curlin, Scat Daddy, Street Sense and CQ. Right now the best value of those will be Dominican. Great Hunter disappointed me on BC day and ever since, No BIZ is a Big Question mark to me right now. The rest of the pack are not inspiring me at this point in time.
None the less, I am willing to go head to head on those two Dominican vs TBerg. What should be the stakes? Bragging rights or cash? The Dominican will exorcise your Devil.
NC Tony
Thor\'s Echo was in the 3 path on the turn, but he more or less had an inside out trip. He came out on the turn. I think his trip says more about how well he ran that day than the bias. He followed up with another excellent effort.
SC,
\"Please Miff between you and CtC you guys are making a mess of this thing.....
Bias Aided Isolated Tops
Slow Pace Adjusted Final Figures
Explosion Lines
0-2-X Angles
Poly-to-Dirt Plays
To Fast To Soon Reads
Nothing short of being Karnac the Magnificent will anybody know what to think come Derby Day.\"
Unfortunately, this game is very complex. If the idea is to understand what actually happened in a past race, it often requires deeper analysis than just looking at the number.
I dunno.
Here\'s what I think I observed. A strong rail bias for part of the week leading up to BC day. A strong rail bias in the early races on the card, fading as the day goes on.
Supposedly they did some work on the track prior to the Classic where Bernardini and Invasor both raced outside.
My view is that both extremes are wrong. There are some people that think there was a huge inside bias because of all the 1 post winners etc... and others that think there was no bias because a few horses ran well outside and the figures didn\'t suggest an extreme bias.
I think the rail was the best place to be (over and above ground loss), but the bias wasn\'t strong enough to dictate the results (like on many days this winter on the Inner Dirt at Aqu). It was only strong enough to influence results between horses of similar ability.
Judging a rail bias off tops?? Why. A favorable path does not necessarily make a horse run faster than his norm. A path(rail in this case) returning better energy than other paths is a biased path and has little to do with producing tops, although it might.
If 9 horses on a card wire from post one and there are no tops, that means there was no inside speed bias, BRILLIANT!!
Mike
>Supposedly they did some work on the track prior to the Classic where Bernardini and Invasor both raced outside.
This is my opinion on what I saw. There were several notable experts who did not see any bias and several who did. This is just my opinion.
The racings prior to the BC at CD (Thurs & Fri) had an extreme anti-rail bias. Jockey\'s were steering horses to the outside of the track down the stretch and finishing each race in about the 5 or 6 path. Very similar to what we are seeing at Keeneland now. What they did on the backstretch I can not say because I did not have a head-on view.
So what happened. I figure Track Maintanance tried to even things out. They either made the rail better or the outside worse. Whichever way it was they overcooked the focus of their maintenance. Jockey\'s who had been watching and thinking on Fri before BC they would not go anywhere near the rail saw an opportunity to now try and take the shortest distance between two points and race on a more favorable part of the track.
If Track Maintenance thinks they made the outside worse much worse, trying to even it out mid-day may make sense.
This issue would get us into a much more complicated conversation in that whoever is making the speed figures may or may not be interpreting the results the same way as other handicappers. That \"could\" impact the figures assigned to the winners and others.
IMO, by definition, a favorable path bias will cause those that race on it to run faster than they would have on the more neutral paths that day all else being equal (and vice versa). That would generally lead to some tops assuming a few of the winners performed near their peak form and raced on the favorable path.
However, we will get into all sorts of definitional and subjective issues if we discuss this further.
IMO, horses that raced on the rail on BC day performed better than those in the outside paths based on my view of their \"relative abilities\" going in and based on my view of how they performed coming out of those races. That analysis is not limited just to speed figures because of my first point.
I agree with you 100%.
I think track maintenance tried to correct the anti-rail track bias that existed in the days leading up to the BC races and over did it a bit.
I was also at CD on BC day. The rail was good, but it was also the shortest path to the wire. So I would factor that into my handicappping. I wouldn\'t call it a bias.
That said, I still take a rather old fashioned approach to handicapping this race. It happens only once a year, and should be treated as such.
The dual qualifier rule is where I start. SS is the highweight. I start by looking for ways to beat him. I only look at the dual qualifiers. The rest I throw out. It hasn\'t cost me that much. In fact, after betting the Derby since 1986, I show a huge flat bet profit on my selections. And some of my beats ran a second (49er, Easy Goer, Tejano Run-the buzzer victim).
There are some patterns other than speed figures that I use as part of my criteria for a Derby winner: must \"win\" a major 2 yo race. Must \"win\" a major 3 yo prep race. Must be on the board in his last prep.
There are also some other handicapping rules I apply: never bet the horses in the aux gate. No horse has won since the 1800s witout a 2yo race. No BC JUV winner has ever won the Derby.
Then I look at the TG figs and patterns.
Another given is that some rules are bound to be broken, some sooner than later.
Strike the Gold, Thunder Gulch, Sunday Silence come to mind. I think Street Sense will join them this year and become the first BC JUV winner to win the Derby. There\'s so much to like here, beginning with the trainer. Same pattern: Keenland poly race to CD dirt top. Has a win over the track. Will be a square price. Looking forward to the TG sheets.